“Food prices rose 0.8%, with the cost of food consumed at home increasing 0.7%. Food prices surged 11.4% over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since May 1979.”
U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly rose in August and underlying inflation accelerated amid rising costs for rents and healthcare, giving the Federal Reserve ammunition to deliver a third 75 basis points interest rate hike next Wednesday.
www.reuters.com
Yes, but unlike 1979, no one is sitting in a gas line. And there wasn’t a war going on in Eurasia’s breadbasket, either.
The Iranian oil embargo and the subsequent domination of OPEC, which was able to hold oil prices artificially high well into 1985.
Ronald Reagan reaped the benefits of two major events he actually had little to do with.
One, the collapse of oil prices in the spring of 1985. By then, gasoline consumption in the US has shrunk, and was not recovering as fast as expected (thanks to the CAFE standards). Nigeria, Iraq, Russia and Venezuela were all cheating on their quotas, and the Saudis got tired of cutting production to try and prop up the price.
That was the spark that really ignited the Reagan boom.
The other was the death of Yuri Andropov, which begat Mikeal Gorbachev. If not for that, geo political history would have been vastly different. It didn’t hurt, of course, that the Russians had been importing American wheat for two decades and the drop in oil prices left them bereft of hard currency).
There is no reason to expect the Ukraine War to go on for more than a year. The collapse and impotence of the Russians is all too apparant. Oil prices are going to stay stable.
We will have a mild recession, mainly because of the one that the EU is going to suffer under Russian oil and gas blackmail. Taht, in turn, will lead to rapid acceleration in research and investment in renewables and battery technology.