Election Experts: There Are Only Three Serious GOP Contenders.....

[MMC]

Cruz, Paul, Graham, Huckabee, Carson, Fiorina, Pataki, Trump and Perry. Have been put on notice. Bushlite can follow to. What say ye?



In a field brimming with candidates, the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato and his associates contend in the pages of Politico Magazine, the “conventional wisdom” is that the Republican presidential nomination is up for grabs in 2016.

But is it?

Hardly, they write:....snip~

Election Experts: There Are Only Three Serious GOP Contenders - Daniel Doherty

 

[MMC]

What do you guys think? Does another Republican candidate have the capacity, connections, and money to win the primary and the general election? Or do Republicans need to endorse one of these three contenders to finally recapture the White House?.....snip~


The only other one I can think of.....is Kasich.

 

[Chomsky]

I agree with the article.

For the most part, the successful candidate is going to have to get the nod from the GOP Party elite (just as they chose Gov. Romney, last election).

The three candidates selected in the article meet the GOP Elite's criteria.

--

Wasn't Citizens United et al, wonderful?

 

[penn1954]

What do you guys think? Does another Republican candidate have the capacity, connections, and money to win the primary and the general election? Or do Republicans need to endorse one of these three contenders to finally recapture the White House?.....snip~


The only other one I can think of.....is Kasich.

Hi MMC!!

If the nominee is Bush I'll vote for the libertarian.
Kasich would be alright,Walker is my fave for now.

Please no more Senators or dynasties!!:twocents:

 

[roughdraft274]

1. Bush is running. There are no certainties in politics, except that he is running for president. He's put too much effort in to raising money and campaigning for him not to.

2. I think we can say that the most serious contendors are those three, but to argue that the nomination isn't up for grabs is silly. Every election these experts tell us exactly what will happen and most of the time they are wrong.


The only person I'd really put money on as far as predictions go is nate silver and only if it's fairly close to the election.

 

[cpwill]

Cruz, Paul, Graham, Huckabee, Carson, Fiorina, Pataki, Trump and Perry. Have been put on notice. Bushlite can follow to. What say ye?

In a field brimming with candidates, the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato and his associates contend in the pages of Politico Magazine, the “conventional wisdom” is that the Republican presidential nomination is up for grabs in 2016.

But is it?

Hardly, they write:....snip~

Election Experts: There Are Only Three Serious GOP Contenders - Daniel Doherty

... if winning in November is the goal, Republicans will settle on Bush, Rubio or Walker...

This is my gut-feeling as well. The only real dark horse potential I see is Perry, and then he's most likely as a disruptor.

 

[MMC]

Hi MMC!!

If the nominee is Bush I'll vote for the libertarian.
Kasich would be alright,Walker is my fave for now.

Please no more Senators or dynasties!!:twocents:

Heya Penn. :2wave: Kasich would bring the Repubs Ohio. They have to win Ohio. He has hired a couple of people and is about ready to announce. I figure after Trump and his hoopla.

 

[joG]

Hi MMC!!

If the nominee is Bush I'll vote for the libertarian.
Kasich would be alright,Walker is my fave for now.

Please no more Senators or dynasties!!:twocents:

You don't like Bush? Why? I have been looking, but haven't found much against his record, really.

 

[penn1954]

You don't like Bush? Why? I have been looking, but haven't found much against his record, really.

Too illegal friendly for one.
Too much big government to suit me.:twocents:

 

[MMC]

This is my gut-feeling as well. The only real dark horse potential I see is Perry, and then he's most likely as a disruptor.

Heya CPW. :2wave: Sabato was on with Hewitt. He was thinking the same of Perry Potential is there. He also was open to the idea that it could go way of the brokered convention if there is no clear front runner. Arkansas wont be winner take all now either.

Did you see what Silver had to say about Hillary and the Demos alleged Blue Wall?

 

[clownboy]

I'll vote for Walker if he runs. The other two, depends upon whom they end up running against. I'd have to swallow mouthfuls of bile to vote for either.

 

[logansrun]

The article is well-founded. It will be better for the GOP nominee in the end. A primary fight is wasted money.

 

[MMC]

Nate Silver: What to watch for in 2016 election.....

EXPECT A CLOSE RACE: The nomination of Democrat Hillary Clinton is inevitable, but the general election will be a toss-up. NO BLUE WALL: Democrats shouldn't count on a blue wall or demographic shifts to continue winning the presidency. And there is some benefit for Republicans to nominate a moderate for president.

Who will be the next president? If you trust former U.S. Rep. Harold Ford, a Tennessee Democrat, and Republican-leaning author Dan Senor, it will be former First Lady and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush or U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida. The two political pros made the predictions Thursday at the Mackinac Policy Conference, sponsored by the Detroit Regional Chamber.

Rubio also could open up the Republican party to a wider demographic, Senor added, noting he thinks Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas will do well in the early primary states and could break through.....snip~

Nate Silver: What to watch for in 2016 election

 

[Fiddytree]

I'd say that's largely a good bet. Walker stands to be potentially the most dangerous candidate for Bush.

 

[MMC]

I'd say that's largely a good bet. Walker stands to be potentially the most dangerous candidate for Bush.

Plus Iowans know Walker from the State next door. So Bush is behind the 8 Ball in Iowa. He may not even make the top 5. Once Kasich jumps in, Bush numbers will drop in New Hampshire.

Moreover Bush had to change things up. Murphy is moving to run his Super Pac now.

 

[Jack Hays]

Another data point:

Ideology
[h=2] Conservatives Are Not Disappearing [/h] By Harry Enten

 

[CanadaJohn]

Cruz, Paul, Graham, Huckabee, Carson, Fiorina, Pataki, Trump and Perry. Have been put on notice. Bushlite can follow to. What say ye?



In a field brimming with candidates, the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato and his associates contend in the pages of Politico Magazine, the “conventional wisdom” is that the Republican presidential nomination is up for grabs in 2016.

But is it?

Hardly, they write:....snip~

Election Experts: There Are Only Three Serious GOP Contenders - Daniel Doherty

Good evening MMC,

I haven't read the article - since I left Politico in 2013, I've not visited the site once and have no intention of doing so - a matter of principle.

That said, as I've been saying for several years now, if Jeb Bush runs, he'll be the next President of the United States. He holds superior ground over what Romney brought to the table because his social conservative credentials are unassailable and once Huckabee, Santorum, etc. drop out of the race, those social conservatives will find a happy home supporting Jeb Bush. Bush will only get stronger and his money advantage will assist in gaining strength. And when the general election comes, those social conservatives will be out in droves to support Bush over the heathen Clintons.

 

[cpwill]

Heya CPW. :2wave: Sabato was on with Hewitt. He was thinking the same of Perry Potential is there. He also was open to the idea that it could go way of the brokered convention if there is no clear front runner. Arkansas wont be winner take all now either.

That would be.... fascinating for political junkies, but I would worry about the effect going into the regular election.

Did you see what Silver had to say about Hillary and the Demos alleged Blue Wall?

I didn't - got a link.

 

[cpwill]

Good evening MMC,

I haven't read the article - since I left Politico in 2013, I've not visited the site once and have no intention of doing so - a matter of principle.

That said, as I've been saying for several years now, if Jeb Bush runs, he'll be the next President of the United States. He holds superior ground over what Romney brought to the table because his social conservative credentials are unassailable and once Huckabee, Santorum, etc. drop out of the race, those social conservatives will find a happy home supporting Jeb Bush. Bush will only get stronger and his money advantage will assist in gaining strength. And when the general election comes, those social conservatives will be out in droves to support Bush over the heathen Clintons.

....I'm a social conservative, and I am just not seeing social conservative support for Bush. Quite the opposite - he has a serious problem with both Common Core and Immigration, both of which are issues about which social conservatives care deeply, and neither of which he is willing to budge on. Where are you finding this swell of social conservative support for Bush?

 

[polgara]

Good evening MMC,

I haven't read the article - since I left Politico in 2013, I've not visited the site once and have no intention of doing so - a matter of principle.

That said, as I've been saying for several years now, if Jeb Bush runs, he'll be the next President of the United States. He holds superior ground over what Romney brought to the table because his social conservative credentials are unassailable and once Huckabee, Santorum, etc. drop out of the race, those social conservatives will find a happy home supporting Jeb Bush. Bush will only get stronger and his money advantage will assist in gaining strength. And when the general election comes, those social conservatives will be out in droves to support Bush over the heathen Clintons.

Good evening, CJ. :2wave:

Whoever the candidate is, they will have to carry both Florida and Ohio, according to the experts. Who do you think Bush would choose as a running mate? I'm still not certain Hillary will run - color me crazy if you must - but if she does, the Dems will vote for her. So it might come down to what the Independents think. Where is Pero with his analysis? I miss that guy! :boohoo:

 

[CanadaJohn]

Good evening, CJ. :2wave:

Whoever the candidate is, they will have to carry both Florida and Ohio, according to the experts. Who do you think Bush would choose as a running mate? I'm still not certain Hillary will run - color me crazy if you must - but if she does, the Dems will vote for her. So it might come down to what the Independents think. Where is Pero with his analysis? I miss that guy! :boohoo:

Good morning Lady P

I was wondering where Pero is myself the other day. Hopefully all is well and he's either just busy, on vacation, of taking a break from here.

I'm not sure who Bush would select as a running mate - there are so many good choices. It wouldn't be Rubio, since he brings nothing that Bush doesn't already have. It could be Walker or Kasich. I'm pretty sure it won't be a member of Congress like Romney who chose Ryan. It could be a wildcard like Susana Martinez in New Mexico who's interesting and would further a push for western latinos.

 

[CanadaJohn]

....I'm a social conservative, and I am just not seeing social conservative support for Bush. Quite the opposite - he has a serious problem with both Common Core and Immigration, both of which are issues about which social conservatives care deeply, and neither of which he is willing to budge on. Where are you finding this swell of social conservative support for Bush?

My point was that Romney lost many Christian and social conservatives because of his religion and his flips on abortion and other issues important to them. Bush doesn't have those problems.

Surprising that you'd prefer Bush flip-flop on positions important to him, opening him up to attacks from the left. I think a man of principle who actually believes in things and not just sways with the polls is far more attractive to voters. He is open to tweaking his positions but not abandoning them. And he's right on immigration.

 

[solletica]

Cruz, Paul, Graham, Huckabee, Carson, Fiorina, Pataki, Trump and Perry. Have been put on notice. Bushlite can follow to. What say ye?



In a field brimming with candidates, the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato and his associates contend in the pages of Politico Magazine, the “conventional wisdom” is that the Republican presidential nomination is up for grabs in 2016.

But is it?

Hardly, they write:....snip~

Election Experts: There Are Only Three Serious GOP Contenders - Daniel Doherty

It is not up for grabs, The RNC doesn't allow voters to choose candidates; they're pre-selected by the party. To date, the RNC has eliminated all but bush and christie as candidates.

 

[MMC]

That would be.... fascinating for political junkies, but I would worry about the effect going into the regular election.



I didn't - got a link.

The Brokered Convention.....I think you are Right. Although, like you I would be worried about the effect going into 2016.

If the Demos didn't have Hillary.....which as you know many are trying to keep that float alive. (Despite Charges that should have been brought out and delivered to her personally, already )

Then it wouldn't be any concern. As they have not been this week since the Civil War.

Time to end that party once and for all. There are more sell outs of this country, all riding with them.....not much else needs to be said just with that fact alone.

 

[MMC]

It is not up for grabs, The RNC doesn't allow voters to choose candidates; they're pre-selected by the party. To date, the RNC has eliminated all but bush and christie as candidates.

All but Bush and Christie, huh? Now that is some funny ****. :lamo