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This is the people of Egypt's achievment.
This is W's achievement despite the corruption, efforts and incompetence of O.
really?
all of those citizens assembling in the streets in protest for 18 days
that had nothing to do with it
stunning that you come to such a conclusion when the facts of the matter are so apparent
I'm sure Egypt will only improve.
The youth wish for democracy and liberty, they will protest again if they do not receive it.
I hope the Egyptian military takes a similar role as that of Turkey's Army. The Guardians of the Secular State
Name one person, outside the army, that is in a position of leadership at this point. As always, thanks in advance.
I'm sure Egypt will only improve.
The youth wish for democracy and liberty, they will protest again if they do not receive it.
I hope the Egyptian military takes a similar role as that of Turkey's Army. The Guardians of the Secular State
and thus, you conclude the army was what created this regime change
and ignore the mass of citizens on public march for 18 days
lay off the kool aid
and thus, you conclude the army was what created this regime change
and ignore the mass of citizens on public march for 18 days
lay off the kool aid
Had the Army totally supported Mubarak the outcome would have been different. There would have been a bloodbath and Mubarak would have remained in power.
we see it has not made its appearance in the past 30 years
in what time span do you project democracy would have been able to take root under the existing constitution - one which has allowed a continuous state of emergency for over 20 years
our military has a long established relationship with its egyptian counterparts
the egyptian army played the role of referee in this uprising. it certainly had the means to quash the rebellion had it sought to do so to preserve the old order
there is effectively a one party system now in place. this will provide an opportunity for new parties to form for truly representative government to evolve
This is W's achievement despite the corruption, efforts and incompetence of O.
How is this anyone's achievement, but the Egyptian people protesting and the Egyptian army for not shooting the protesters?
Whether the military stays true to its commitment to hold elections on schedule in September remains to be seen. If elections are held, however, the military must have a political vehicle in place to counter opposition forces, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood. The fate of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) thus lies in question. Without the NDP, the regime will have effectively collapsed and the military could run into greater difficulty in running the country. While the military council will be serving as the provisional government, it will likely want to retain as much of the ruling NDP as possible and incorporate elements of the opposition to manage the transition. Sustaining its hold over power while crafting a democratic government will be the biggest challenge for the military as it tries to avoid regime change while also dealing with a potential constitutional crisis.
Read more: Red Alert: Mubarak Resigns, Military is in Charge | STRATFOR
Who's going to get the blame if the army screws the pooch? The Egyptian people?
How is this anyone's achievement, but the Egyptian people protesting and the Egyptian army for not shooting the protesters?
Whether or not blame rightly or wrongly falls on the U.S., still does not change the fact it isn't President Bush or Obama's achievement. The achievement lies with those in Egypt.
Ok, so we can rest assured that we won't hear people bashing the United States, when this goes to ****?
I am reminded of when the standard talking point was that it was liberals that "blame America first".
My how the times have changed.
While you are true, the rhetoric back only a few years ago was that the Middle East would never change, that democratic fever is not in their blood, and any attempts to work on coercion toward that end are futile and self-destructive. While the coercion part may not have been removed from skeptics, there is renewed attention toward democratic regimes in the Middle East. Oddly, last night alone I saw both Paul Wolfowitz and Woolsey brought on CNN of all places as authentic authorities with regarding this situation.
I agree, but I feel like people throw around the word democracy forgetting that we are viewing the word in our American terms. I think the idea of democracy can work anywhere, but in some places it might be harder given certain belief structures or religious views. But do I think that our American idea of democracy will work in the Middle East? No because it is a different region and they will have to find what works best with them.
Also, it will be interesting to see the U.S.'s stance if an Egyptian democratically elected government that has a rather anti-American stance appears. Will we be a big of fans of democracy then as we are now? I look very much forward to paying attention to Egypt over the next few weeks to find out some of these answers.
If the treaty with Egypt is the foundation of Israel’s national security, it is logical that the Israelis should do everything possible to preserve it.
This was not the fatal heart attack. It might not even have been more than indigestion. But recent events in Egypt point to a long-term problem with Israeli strategy. Given the strategic and ideological crosscurrents in Egypt, it is in Israel’s national interest to minimize the intensity of the ideological and make certain that Israel is not perceived as a threat. In Gaza, for example, Israel and Egypt may have shared a common interest in containing Hamas, and the next generation of Egyptian officers may share it as well. But what didn’t materialize in the streets this time could in the future: an Islamist rising. In that case, the Egyptian military might find it in its interest to preserve its power by accommodating the Islamists. At this point, Egypt becomes the problem and not part of the solution.
Keeping Egypt from coming to this is the imperative of military dispassion. If the long-term center of gravity of Israel’s national security is at least the neutrality of Egypt, then doing everything to maintain that is a military requirement. That military requirement must be carried out by political means. That requires the recognition of priorities. The future of Gaza or the precise borders of a Palestinian state are trivial compared to preserving the treaty with Egypt. If it is found that a particular political strategy undermines the strategic requirement, then that political strategy must be sacrificed.
In other words, the worst-case scenario for Israel would be a return to the pre-1978 relationship with Egypt without a settlement with the Palestinians. That would open the door for a potential two-front war with an intifada in the middle. To avoid that, the ideological pressure on Egypt must be eased, and that means a settlement with the Palestinians on less-than-optimal terms. The alternative is to stay the current course and let Israel take its chances. The question is where the greater safety lies. Israel has assumed that it lies with confrontation with the Palestinians. That’s true only if Egypt stays neutral. If the pressure on the Palestinians destabilizes Egypt, it is not the most prudent course.
There are those in Israel who would argue that any release in pressure on the Palestinians will be met with rejection. If that is true, then, in my view, that is catastrophic news for Israel. In due course, ideological shifts and recalculations of Israeli intentions will cause a change in Egyptian policy. This will take several decades to turn into effective military force, and the first conflicts may well end in Israeli victory. But, as I have said before, it must always be remembered that no matter how many times Israel wins, it need only lose once to be annihilated.
To some it means that Israel should remain as strong as possible. To me it means that Israel should avoid rolling the dice too often, regardless of how strong it thinks it is. The Mubarak affair might open a strategic reconsideration of the Israeli position.
"Egypt, Israel and a Strategic Reconsideration is republished with permission of STRATFOR."
Read more: Egypt, Israel and a Strategic Reconsideration | STRATFOR
Read more: Egypt, Israel and a Strategic Reconsideration | STRATFOR
I agree, but I feel like people throw around the word democracy forgetting that we are viewing the word in our American terms. I think the idea of democracy can work anywhere, but in some places it might be harder given certain belief structures or religious views. But do I think that our American idea of democracy will work in the Middle East? No because it is a different region and they will have to find what works best with them.
Also, it will be interesting to see the U.S.'s stance if an Egyptian democratically elected government that has a rather anti-American stance appears. Will we be a big of fans of democracy then as we are now? I look very much forward to paying attention to Egypt over the next few weeks to find out some of these answers.
Any ME democracy will have to accommodate the Islamists. Re: Sadr in Iraq, part of the governing coalition with I think 5 prominent Ministerial posts. Consider them the religious right.
We do have close ties with Egypt. I think Muslims are anti-American due to our support of dictatorships. Here's another chance to show otherwise.
Part of that will take a very long time to figure out.
George Friedman wrote an interesting piece a few days ago that gives some additional perspective for part what the United States would look at: Israel's troubles.
Here's a portion of the last half of the essay.
Egypt, Israel and a Strategic Reconsideration | STRATFOR
FT.com / Middle East & North Africa - Iran... Iran’s rulers have strongly backed this year’s uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt by labelling it an Islamic movement against western-backed dictators and likening it to the 1979 revolution in Iran.
However, the Islamic regime in Tehran, which faced the biggest unrest against its rule after a disputed presidential election in June 2009, is seeking to block Monday’s demonstration and has labelled it a conspiracy by its opponents.
Hossein Hamedani, a senior commander of the elite Revolutionary Guard, said his forces would crush any possible protests on Monday. Kayhan, the hardline newspaper, threatened the Green Movement supporters with death. ...
I think if Iraq taught us anything is that we can't shove it down their throats.
We can and should help, but we need to let it evolve into something that works best of Egypt.
I hope that this is not a military coup. On the other hand, my boyfriend reminded me that MANY of the key leaders in the Egyptian army were trained in the U.S. and have close relationships with U.S. military personnel. The army is promising that free and fair elections will be held.
I hope the best for the people of Egypt, and that they may have the freedom they so desire.
Not at all. Iraq showed that democracy is a healthy possibility in the ME. Sure there was lots of violence. Still the Iraqis, not the US, debated and wrote a constitution that was ratified by popular vote - if only barely, due to Sunni opposition to it.
We shoved it down their throat and it has inspired the Arab youth throughout the ME. Now they can do it on their own.
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