• Please keep all posts on the Rittenhouse verdict here: Rittenhouse Verdict. Note the moderator warnings in the thread. The thread will be heavily moderated with a zero tolerance policy for any baiting, flaming, trolling or other rule breaks. Stick to the topic and not the other posters. Thank you.
  • This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Economic models predict GOP White House, even with Trump

imyoda

DP Veteran
Joined
May 6, 2012
Messages
5,731
Reaction score
1,025
Location
Sarasota, Florida
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
Economic models predict GOP White House, even with Trump | TheHill
Economic models predict GOP White House, even with Trump

Republicans are expected to win the White House under two economic models that have accurately forecast presidential elections for decades.
A third model run by Moody’s Analytics predicts Democrats will win the White House, in part because of President Obama’s rising approval rating
The three models are being challenged like never before by the presence of GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump, whose campaign has shaken up politics……..

………. Ray Fair, a Yale professor who launched his model in 1978, told The Hill that while all elections include unruly features that an economic model can’t pick up, “this one seems particularly unusual.”
“If there’s any time in which personalities would trump the economy it would be this election,” Fair said.
Fair’s model has correctly forecast all but three presidential races since 1916 but was wrong in 2012, when it predicted a narrow loss for Obama to Mitt Romney.
It relies on just three pieces of information: per capita growth rate of gross domestic product in the three quarters before an election, inflation over the entire presidential term and the number of quarters during the term growth per capita exceeds 3.2 percent.

Given the sluggish economy, his model doesn’t show enough growth under Obama to predict a Democratic win in the election. In his most recent forecast from January, his model predicted a 45.66 percent share of the presidential vote for the Democratic candidate, less than the 49 percent it predicted in 2012.

The other two models, unlike Fair’s, consider the incumbent president’s approval rating. In both cases, Obama’s improving favorability helps his party’s chances of winning the White House. But only one of those models predicts a Democratic win.

Emory University’s Alan Abramowitz, whose model has correctly predicted every outcome since 1992, forecasts a Republican win.

………… In fact, their models are designed to sweep away the effects of boisterous personalities and the usual ebbs and flows of a long presidential campaign season and instead track specific economic factors that voters deem most important.
Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who has researched the reliability of economic models, said that while every election is different the “point of the statistical models is to try to find the underlying similarity across all of them.”
“So the logic that says that these models should have worked over the past few decades also says that they should work in this election cycle, too,” he told The Hill”


Who knows? Maybe the economists know something we don’t…….. IMHO……….Hope springs eternal for the GOP this time
 

joG

DP Veteran
Joined
Jul 27, 2013
Messages
43,839
Reaction score
9,638
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Independent
Economic models predict GOP White House, even with Trump | TheHill
Economic models predict GOP White House, even with Trump

Republicans are expected to win the White House under two economic models that have accurately forecast presidential elections for decades.
A third model run by Moody’s Analytics predicts Democrats will win the White House, in part because of President Obama’s rising approval rating
The three models are being challenged like never before by the presence of GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump, whose campaign has shaken up politics……..

………. Ray Fair, a Yale professor who launched his model in 1978, told The Hill that while all elections include unruly features that an economic model can’t pick up, “this one seems particularly unusual.”
“If there’s any time in which personalities would trump the economy it would be this election,” Fair said.
Fair’s model has correctly forecast all but three presidential races since 1916 but was wrong in 2012, when it predicted a narrow loss for Obama to Mitt Romney.
It relies on just three pieces of information: per capita growth rate of gross domestic product in the three quarters before an election, inflation over the entire presidential term and the number of quarters during the term growth per capita exceeds 3.2 percent.

Given the sluggish economy, his model doesn’t show enough growth under Obama to predict a Democratic win in the election. In his most recent forecast from January, his model predicted a 45.66 percent share of the presidential vote for the Democratic candidate, less than the 49 percent it predicted in 2012.

The other two models, unlike Fair’s, consider the incumbent president’s approval rating. In both cases, Obama’s improving favorability helps his party’s chances of winning the White House. But only one of those models predicts a Democratic win.

Emory University’s Alan Abramowitz, whose model has correctly predicted every outcome since 1992, forecasts a Republican win.

………… In fact, their models are designed to sweep away the effects of boisterous personalities and the usual ebbs and flows of a long presidential campaign season and instead track specific economic factors that voters deem most important.
Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who has researched the reliability of economic models, said that while every election is different the “point of the statistical models is to try to find the underlying similarity across all of them.”
“So the logic that says that these models should have worked over the past few decades also says that they should work in this election cycle, too,” he told The Hill”


Who knows? Maybe the economists know something we don’t…….. IMHO……….Hope springs eternal for the GOP this time

These economic prediction models are really quite interesting.
 

Mithrae

DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 15, 2013
Messages
5,689
Reaction score
2,618
Location
Australia
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal
It relies on just three pieces of information: per capita growth rate of gross domestic product in the three quarters before an election, inflation over the entire presidential term and the number of quarters during the term growth per capita exceeds 3.2 percent.

Shouldn't we first be asking how accurately Professor Fair has been predicting per capita GDP growth 6 months in advance?

I wouldn't put too much stock in modelling something with as few variables as US presidential election outcomes unless they can boast close to 100% accuracy. Even a rule as simple as 8 years of one party, then a change, would have been accurate for all but two elections back to FDR in 1944 (exceptions being 4 years of Carter and 12 years of Reagan/Bush). That's 88.2% accuracy over 17 elections, compared with 87.5% for Fair's model over 24 elections.

Of course, I guess that means my 'model' also predicts a GOP win. And make no mistake, I'm claiming it as a stroke of personal genius if it happens! :lol:
 
Last edited:

imyoda

DP Veteran
Joined
May 6, 2012
Messages
5,731
Reaction score
1,025
Location
Sarasota, Florida
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
These economic prediction models are really quite interesting.

Let's see if they work........... Just like the AFL-NFL winner of the Super Bowl determines if the stock market goes up or down............. :roll:
 

joG

DP Veteran
Joined
Jul 27, 2013
Messages
43,839
Reaction score
9,638
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Independent
Let's see if they work........... Just like the AFL-NFL winner of the Super Bowl determines if the stock market goes up or down............. :roll:

I have never myself looked into these things professionally, but friends of mine in that type of business say that some of the meodels are robustly predictive, though, they can have feedback loops or the underlying can shift over time and even situationally.
 

imyoda

DP Veteran
Joined
May 6, 2012
Messages
5,731
Reaction score
1,025
Location
Sarasota, Florida
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
I have never myself looked into these things professionally, but friends of mine in that type of business say that some of the meodels are robustly predictive, though, they can have feedback loops or the underlying can shift over time and even situationally.


Of course...........it is obviously self explanatory............Wouldn't you agree?
 

joG

DP Veteran
Joined
Jul 27, 2013
Messages
43,839
Reaction score
9,638
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Independent
Of course...........it is obviously self explanatory............Wouldn't you agree?

For anyone that deals in socio-economic models anything else would be the surprise. but that is, what empirics are about: Looking for the surprise.
 

Mr Person

A Little Bitter
Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Monthly Donator
Joined
Oct 14, 2015
Messages
50,489
Reaction score
34,819
Location
Massachusetts
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
Emory University’s Alan Abramowitz, whose model has correctly predicted every outcome since 1992, forecasts a Republican win.


Since 1992, eh? When the economy is good, we elect a republican. Once they ruin it, we elect a Democrat?
 

Threegoofs

COVID survivor
Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Joined
Mar 31, 2013
Messages
55,308
Reaction score
20,660
Location
The birthplace of Italian Beef
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
I think some people are confusing correlation with causation.

And GDP does not accurately predict results.

a27db9a8f59fbc9219db6be74b9f8634.jpg


I bet you can find a perfect prediction model that correlates with the cup size of strippers in Schenectady if you look hard enough.
 

NoLeftNoRight

DP Veteran
Joined
Apr 16, 2015
Messages
1,578
Reaction score
418
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Very Liberal
I think some people are confusing correlation with causation.

People love to use this phrase, even though most don't really understand it.....but....it makes them sound really smart.....doesn't it?
 

NoLeftNoRight

DP Veteran
Joined
Apr 16, 2015
Messages
1,578
Reaction score
418
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Very Liberal
Since 1992, eh? When the economy is good, we elect a republican. Once they ruin it, we elect a Democrat?

You can thank a Republican for every freedom you ever had....including posting nonsense on forums.

You can thank a liberal for every welfare recipient and illegal border jumper there ever was and will be.
 

imyoda

DP Veteran
Joined
May 6, 2012
Messages
5,731
Reaction score
1,025
Location
Sarasota, Florida
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
Since 1992, eh? When the economy is good, we elect a republican. Once they ruin it, we elect a Democrat?

Revisionist history..............Ever hear of George W Bush who squandered the Clinton surplus...........started 2 illegal wars that will cost $3 and an unneeded tax cut for the 1% which added trillions to the national debt..........and let office loosing 700,000 jobs per month and the beginning of the Great Recession he started...........

Now I seem to recall GWB was not a Democrat......Is that true?
 

Threegoofs

COVID survivor
Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Joined
Mar 31, 2013
Messages
55,308
Reaction score
20,660
Location
The birthplace of Italian Beef
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
People love to use this phrase, even though most don't really understand it.....but....it makes them sound really smart.....doesn't it?

I'm guessing you don't understand it.

You can find lots of things that have predicted elections, especially when you adjust the numbers to make a 'model'. Those things likely will not predict the next election.
 

Mr Person

A Little Bitter
Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Monthly Donator
Joined
Oct 14, 2015
Messages
50,489
Reaction score
34,819
Location
Massachusetts
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
Since 1992, eh? When the economy is good, we elect a republican. Once they ruin it, we elect a Democrat?

Revisionist history..............Ever hear of George W Bush who squandered the Clinton surplus...........started 2 illegal wars that will cost $3 and an unneeded tax cut for the 1% which added trillions to the national debt..........and let office loosing 700,000 jobs per month and the beginning of the Great Recession he started...........

Now I seem to recall GWB was not a Democrat......Is that true?



The joint, Yoda must down. Put.

I was making a tongue-in-cheek comment directing derision at the possible result of the fact that an accurate economic model predicts the election of Democrats when the economy is bad, followed by the election of Republicans when it's good, and then back to Democrats when it's bad.


In my defense, my brain was scrambled from a 13h day yesterday on little sleep (yes, even by 7pm)..... so... yeah. May have entirely missed the point of the OP & that study/prediction model.
 
Top Bottom