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Economic models predict GOP White House, even with Trump | TheHill
Economic models predict GOP White House, even with Trump
Republicans are expected to win the White House under two economic models that have accurately forecast presidential elections for decades.
A third model run by Moody’s Analytics predicts Democrats will win the White House, in part because of President Obama’s rising approval rating
The three models are being challenged like never before by the presence of GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump, whose campaign has shaken up politics……..
………. Ray Fair, a Yale professor who launched his model in 1978, told The Hill that while all elections include unruly features that an economic model can’t pick up, “this one seems particularly unusual.”
“If there’s any time in which personalities would trump the economy it would be this election,” Fair said.
Fair’s model has correctly forecast all but three presidential races since 1916 but was wrong in 2012, when it predicted a narrow loss for Obama to Mitt Romney.
It relies on just three pieces of information: per capita growth rate of gross domestic product in the three quarters before an election, inflation over the entire presidential term and the number of quarters during the term growth per capita exceeds 3.2 percent.
Given the sluggish economy, his model doesn’t show enough growth under Obama to predict a Democratic win in the election. In his most recent forecast from January, his model predicted a 45.66 percent share of the presidential vote for the Democratic candidate, less than the 49 percent it predicted in 2012.
The other two models, unlike Fair’s, consider the incumbent president’s approval rating. In both cases, Obama’s improving favorability helps his party’s chances of winning the White House. But only one of those models predicts a Democratic win.
Emory University’s Alan Abramowitz, whose model has correctly predicted every outcome since 1992, forecasts a Republican win.
………… In fact, their models are designed to sweep away the effects of boisterous personalities and the usual ebbs and flows of a long presidential campaign season and instead track specific economic factors that voters deem most important.
Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who has researched the reliability of economic models, said that while every election is different the “point of the statistical models is to try to find the underlying similarity across all of them.”
“So the logic that says that these models should have worked over the past few decades also says that they should work in this election cycle, too,” he told The Hill”
Who knows? Maybe the economists know something we don’t…….. IMHO……….Hope springs eternal for the GOP this time
Economic models predict GOP White House, even with Trump
Republicans are expected to win the White House under two economic models that have accurately forecast presidential elections for decades.
A third model run by Moody’s Analytics predicts Democrats will win the White House, in part because of President Obama’s rising approval rating
The three models are being challenged like never before by the presence of GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump, whose campaign has shaken up politics……..
………. Ray Fair, a Yale professor who launched his model in 1978, told The Hill that while all elections include unruly features that an economic model can’t pick up, “this one seems particularly unusual.”
“If there’s any time in which personalities would trump the economy it would be this election,” Fair said.
Fair’s model has correctly forecast all but three presidential races since 1916 but was wrong in 2012, when it predicted a narrow loss for Obama to Mitt Romney.
It relies on just three pieces of information: per capita growth rate of gross domestic product in the three quarters before an election, inflation over the entire presidential term and the number of quarters during the term growth per capita exceeds 3.2 percent.
Given the sluggish economy, his model doesn’t show enough growth under Obama to predict a Democratic win in the election. In his most recent forecast from January, his model predicted a 45.66 percent share of the presidential vote for the Democratic candidate, less than the 49 percent it predicted in 2012.
The other two models, unlike Fair’s, consider the incumbent president’s approval rating. In both cases, Obama’s improving favorability helps his party’s chances of winning the White House. But only one of those models predicts a Democratic win.
Emory University’s Alan Abramowitz, whose model has correctly predicted every outcome since 1992, forecasts a Republican win.
………… In fact, their models are designed to sweep away the effects of boisterous personalities and the usual ebbs and flows of a long presidential campaign season and instead track specific economic factors that voters deem most important.
Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who has researched the reliability of economic models, said that while every election is different the “point of the statistical models is to try to find the underlying similarity across all of them.”
“So the logic that says that these models should have worked over the past few decades also says that they should work in this election cycle, too,” he told The Hill”
Who knows? Maybe the economists know something we don’t…….. IMHO……….Hope springs eternal for the GOP this time
