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Earth reaches hottest day ever recorded 4 days in a row

Oh I agree with this largely. But I think it means the western world has to discard its love of self governance. This dramatic degrowth economy is not going to be a very good platform to run on anywhere where votes are counted and administrations need those votes to implement that agenda that you propose. Its doing to take a benevolent dictatorship willing to suspend elections, and civil liberties maybe ban opposition parties that threaten the very power base needed to revolutionize this economy quickly enough to matter. This is not something a President dependant on a House of Representatives with 2 year terms can do, or a Senate that runs in 6 years.

Agreed.

The future includes myriad possible scenarios, but one that has popped into my mind is that the modern nation-state begins to fail due to significant interruptions like prolonged grid failures and worldwide crop failures and resultant food shortages. That would cause hyperinflation. People aren't going to have much patience for political gridlock. They're going to erupt and it will be the military that has to put that fire out. Otherwise, the nation-state completely implodes and then it's every state, county, municipality, or household for themselves.
 
Sure, we've past some tipping points, but we're the only species that's aware of its own destructive tendencies and has the proactive capability to stop more of it. I, too, am cynical, but we've achieved great things a time or two as a species. When we figured out that CFCs were destroying the ozone layer at a terrifying rate, we signed global agreements to stop CFC production -- and it worked. The ozone hole gradually recovered. We've also signed nuclear non-proliferation treaties. Not perfect, but they've shown us what's possible.

We cannot undo the damage that is already done but we can still find ways to stop from pushing us into a certain extinction zone -- that is what is at stake here.
By ‘tipping point,’ I mean the point of no return, similar to the snowball that starts out at the top of the hill, gathers mass and speed and becomes impossible to stop.

To the bolded I agree, except to remind you of the Ron White line, “I had the right to remain silent, what I lacked was the ability.”

We are aware of our destructive nature and have done little or nothing, other than argue
 
I don't think your insane. I think warts and all capitalism is still the best economic vehicle we have to improve our standard of living.
Capitalism isn’t improving everyone’s SOL.
 
The grand North American and European transition to EVs (by 2035?) idea seems to be based on raw material mining and battery production done ‘out of site’ in Africa and Asia while the Chinese use slave labor and building (ever more?) coal fired power plants to ‘help’ in that effort.

I'm not opposed to the idea of cleaner energy and cleaner air -- we absolutely need it. But assuming we change nothing about our economic system and we just try to keep our current economic/political systems as they are but instead of being powered by fossil fuels they're powered by renewables, there are several consequences.

One is that this will simply kick off intense competition for those resources. Species compete for available energy in order to reproduce and propagate their own kind. This is true on an inter-species level and this is true on an intra-species level, too. Humans compete with other humans, just as they compete with other species. People will point out that the US has produced more cumulative emissions than China and India and others since 1950 and still do so even today on a per capita basis, which is correct. But that's not because the US is evil or loves destroying the environment for shits and giggles; that's because we have been more successful over the last 75 years at competing for energy and other resources. When we become less successful, we will consume less and others will consume more - at least if nothing systemically changes. Total global consumption won't change until there is a moment of rapidly depleting and degraded resources (i.e., environmental collapse). But there will be intense global competition for resources right up until that moment, right up to the very end - unless something changes systemically.

The point I'm trying to make is that the race to electrify everything is going to mean another kind of highly intense competition for a new source of energy. It will kick off a race to mine metals on a massive, massive scale, so I really doubt that we're going to really clean much of anything, environmentally speaking. We're going to compete with China, India, Brazil...maybe Russia and certainly others in a race to rip up the earth's surface and ocean ecosystems to mine for metals. And oh by the way, that will require a shit ton of fossil fuels in the extraction process.

Another consequence is that in the short term, cleaner air may actually...make the earth's surface even hotter and quite rapidly. Definitely better in the long-term to reduce emissions, but reducing aerosols from emissions reflects less radiation. So more radiation hits the earth's surface. The consequential heat rise could be quite sudden, and in fact there's speculation and some scientific indication already that this is partly what's driving the extreme North Atlantic ocean warming now. Ships began reducing sulfur emissions around 2018-2020. The point is not that we shouldn't reduce emissions -- we should. But we need to know the consequences and be prepared to mitigate somehow.
 
Hottest day since like 1973 or so. i don't freak out over things i cannot control.

Actually this metric has only been in existence since 1979. But it's part of a trend. Taken in tandem with all the other climate data, it's just another significant piece of evidence that we're leaving the earth we've known behind and we're entering a new era.

No, I don't expect anyone to freak out now. The freak-out will happen when the grid suddenly stops in the dead of summer, leaving tens of millions of people to suffer in 100-degree heat for weeks on end, or when agriculture collapses on multiple continents in the same year leaving us with massive food shortages and hyperinflation.

Will it happen this year? Probably not. But sometime in the next decade - next two at most - I think we're headed to that place, and it's going to be damn ugly.
 
I'm not opposed to the idea of cleaner energy and cleaner air -- we absolutely need it. But assuming we change nothing about our economic system and we just try to keep our current economic/political systems as they are but instead of being powered by fossil fuels they're powered by renewables, there are several consequences.

One is that this will simply kick off intense competition for those resources. Species compete for available energy in order to reproduce and propagate their own kind. This is true on an inter-species level and this is true on an intra-species level, too. Humans compete with other humans, just as they compete with other species. People will point out that the US has produced more cumulative emissions than China and India and others since 1950 and still do so even today on a per capita basis, which is correct. But that's not because the US is evil or loves destroying the environment for shits and giggles; that's because we have been more successful over the last 75 years at competing for energy and other resources. When we become less successful, we will consume less and others will consume more - at least if nothing systemically changes. Total global consumption won't change until there is a moment of rapidly depleting and degraded resources (i.e., environmental collapse). But there will be intense global competition for resources right up until that moment, right up to the very end - unless something changes systemically.

The point I'm trying to make is that the race to electrify everything is going to mean another kind of highly intense competition for a new source of energy. It will kick off a race to mine metals on a massive, massive scale, so I really doubt that we're going to really clean much of anything, environmentally speaking. We're going to compete with China, India, Brazil...maybe Russia and certainly others in a race to rip up the earth's surface and ocean ecosystems to mine for metals. And oh by the way, that will require a shit ton of fossil fuels in the extraction process.

Another consequence is that in the short term, cleaner air may actually...make the earth's surface even hotter and quite rapidly. Definitely better in the long-term to reduce emissions, but reducing aerosols from emissions reflects less radiation. So more radiation hits the earth's surface. The consequential heat rise could be quite sudden, and in fact there's speculation and some scientific indication already that this is partly what's driving the extreme North Atlantic ocean warming now. Ships began reducing sulfur emissions around 2018-2020. The point is not that we shouldn't reduce emissions -- we should. But we need to know the consequences and be prepared to mitigate somehow.

IMHO, we are poised to have the federal government “do something” (aka borrow, print and spend more) about all sorts of ‘priorities’. I’m more concerned about a US financial collapse with more spending on (slowing?) glow bull warming, inventing (and subsidizing) miracle drugs to let more folks (also heavily subsidized) live beyond their (current) expiration dates, making college “free” and housing “affordable”.

 
Actually this metric has only been in existence since 1979. But it's part of a trend. Taken in tandem with all the other climate data, it's just another significant piece of evidence that we're leaving the earth we've known behind and we're entering a new era.

No, I don't expect anyone to freak out now. The freak-out will happen when the grid suddenly stops in the dead of summer, leaving tens of millions of people to suffer in 100-degree heat for weeks on end, or when agriculture collapses on multiple continents in the same year leaving us with massive food shortages and hyperinflation.

Will it happen this year? Probably not. But sometime in the next decade - next two at most - I think we're headed to that place, and it's going to be damn ugly.
I don't care about doomsday prophecies. The climate change religion has said the world was ending far more than any other religion in the time frame in which it existed.

It's a rip off of Christianity but not even a good one.
 
IMHO, we are poised to have the federal government “do something” (aka borrow, print and spend more) about all sorts of ‘priorities’. I’m more concerned about a US financial collapse with more spending on (slowing?) glow bull warming, inventing (and subsidizing) miracle drugs to let more folks (also heavily subsidized) live beyond their (current) expiration dates, making college “free” and housing “affordable”.

Let's also not forget that government's first are corrupt and that they do the most polluting of all.
 
Sure, we've past some tipping points, but we're the only species that's aware of its own destructive tendencies and has the proactive capability to stop more of it. I, too, am cynical, but we've achieved great things a time or two as a species. When we figured out that CFCs were destroying the ozone layer at a terrifying rate, we signed global agreements to stop CFC production -- and it worked. The ozone hole gradually recovered. We've also signed nuclear non-proliferation treaties. Not perfect, but they've shown us what's possible.

We cannot undo the damage that is already done but we can still find ways to stop from pushing us into a certain extinction zone -- that is what is at stake here.
If the extention happens, there will be no one to blame the greedy who enjoyed life and caused this extinction.

Will the cosmos be any worse off?

Carpe diem?
 
IMHO, we are poised to have the federal government “do something” (aka borrow, print and spend more) about all sorts of ‘priorities’. I’m more concerned about a US financial collapse with more spending on (slowing?) glow bull warming, inventing (and subsidizing) miracle drugs to let more folks (also heavily subsidized) live beyond their (current) expiration dates, making college “free” and housing “affordable”.


A financial calamity, irrespective of climate, can certainly happen due to miscalculation of systemic risk. That's a human systems issue. In many cases, a human-caused economic crisis can be fixed with changes in systemic policy (i.e., bailouts, write-downs, and so forth).

Climate is a physics problem. Climate breakdowns imperil the very systems that make modern life in electrified metropolises all over the world possible. There would be no easy policy fix for an agricultural or grid breakdown once it happens. It would be a massive shit show, though I don't necessarily expect the breakdown to occur in linear fashion. It quite obviously could lead to violent conflict. In fact, it's entirely possible that ecological problems will seem just more more intense human problems, but underlying cause will be failure of our ecological systems to sustain the systems we have built for ourselves.
 
If the extention happens, there will be no one to blame the greedy who enjoyed life and caused this extinction.

True

Will the cosmos be any worse off?

No.

But as far as anyone knows we're the only creatures in the cosmos who have the awareness of the universe and our existence in it. Seems quite a shame that we would knowingly snuff out the only living planet we know of with eyes wide open.
 
True



No.

But as far as anyone knows we're the only creatures in the cosmos who have the awareness of the universe and our existence in it. Seems quite a shame that we would knowingly snuff out the only living planet we know of with eyes wide open.
Maybe that is just killing a cancer of the cosmos.

Suppose we manage to save ourselves, only to develope, and go across the universe destroying it as we consume resources.
 
A financial calamity, irrespective of climate, can certainly happen due to miscalculation of systemic risk. That's a human systems issue. In many cases, a human-caused economic crisis can be fixed with changes in systemic policy (i.e., bailouts, write-downs, and so forth).

Climate is a physics problem. Climate breakdowns imperil the very systems that make modern life in electrified metropolises all over the world possible. There would be no easy policy fix for an agricultural or grid breakdown once it happens. It would be a massive shit show, though I don't necessarily expect the breakdown to occur in linear fashion. It quite obviously could lead to violent conflict. In fact, it's entirely possible that ecological problems will seem just more more intense human problems, but underlying cause will be failure of our ecological systems to sustain the systems we have built for ourselves.
So we just continue living and deal with problems as they come just like always.

All this might not even be that bad it might free up some otherwise useless land.
 
Agreed.

The future includes myriad possible scenarios, but one that has popped into my mind is that the modern nation-state begins to fail due to significant interruptions like prolonged grid failures and worldwide crop failures and resultant food shortages. That would cause hyperinflation. People aren't going to have much patience for political gridlock. They're going to erupt and it will be the military that has to put that fire out. Otherwise, the nation-state completely implodes and then it's every state, county, municipality, or household for themselves.
I imagine a resurgance of the theocratic state with its marriage of Religion, civil authority and military. Only 'God' can save us, with an absolutist faith in a wrathful God who's idea of sin includes use of fossil fuels,plastics, electricity, water and other 'footprint' sins with an emphasis on obediance to a modernized environmental Ayatollah. Instead of relationships being about procreational sex, its mirror image reflects societal priorities. The birth of children is illegal outside of poly marital unions with 3 or 4 parents combined to raise a child, consecrated by our govt licensed clerics, and marriages automatically sunset in two years absent the birth of a baby. Marriage is reserved for child rearing only, disbanded when the child is raised. The vast majority of us live unmarried, and chemically castrated by male and female contraceptive drugs coursing through our feverishly devout mental states.

I am going to write a best selling Sci Fi series based on this concept.
 
I imagine a resurgance of the theocratic state with its marriage of Religion, civil authority and military. Only 'God' can save us, with an absolutist faith in a wrathful God who's idea of sin includes use of fossil fuels,plastics, electricity, water and other 'footprint' sins with an emphasis on obediance to a modernized environmental Ayatollah. Instead of relationships being about procreational sex, its mirror image reflects societal priorities. The birth of children is illegal outside of poly marital unions with 3 or 4 parents combined to raise a child, consecrated by our govt licensed clerics, and marriages automatically sunset in two years absent the birth of a baby. Marriage is reserved for child rearing only, disbanded when the child is raised. The vast majority of us live in.

I am going to write a best selling Sci Fi series based on this concept.

Oh, religious fascism will be a thing for sure - I have no doubt. To many, collapse would be/will be a Biblical truth revealed.
 
Oh, religious fascism will be a thing for sure - I have no doubt. To many, collapse would be/will be a Biblical truth revealed.
IN my Handmaiden's tale, failure to compost will be ultimate civil and religious crime, second only to chowing down on a authentic tenderloin steak or allowing your toilet to run.
 
So we just continue living and deal with problems as they come just like always.

All this might not even be that bad it might free up some otherwise useless land.
I remember reading g the most productive farm land is too cool right now to grow.
 
The predictions of a catastrophic future where we get to a tipping point, are way overstated.
The high end predictions are based on a combination of factors that ether cannot happen, or are so unlikely as to not be real.
Any predictions based on ECS are useless from the start, as they simulate an abrupt doubling of the CO2 level, which cannot happen.
The predictions that are based on RCP8.5 are also so unlikely as to be useless.
Without those, we are left with greenhouse gases can still cause warming, but modest amounts.
Most of the observed warming is from things like land use changes and aerosol clearing.

It is past time that we started to address humanity’s real problems of sustainable energy and fresh water!
 
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