Dramatic realignment swings working-class districts toward GOP

[Chomsky]

Dramatic realignment swings working-class districts toward GOP

"Republicans were the party of the country club, and they're increasingly the party of country."

www.axios.com

The last several decades have ushered in a dramatic political realignment, as the GOP has broadened its appeal to a more diverse working class and Democrats have become the party of wealthier, more-educated voters.

Nine of the top 10 wealthiest congressional districts are represented by Democrats, while Republicans now represent most of the poorer half of the country, according to median income data provided by Rep. Marcy Kaptur's (D-Ohio) office.

[Distribution chart included in the article]

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Just as the sixties saw a reversal of party affiliation with the Southern Segregationists, we now seem to being seeing a reversal of party affiliation in terms of economic demography.
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Interestingly, the article suggests the real driver may be education, with income reflecting the level of education - with income being "downstream" from education.

But whatever's going-on, the correlation between income/education and party affiliation appears to be strong.

--

"May you live in interesting times!"

 

[Rexedgar]

Dramatic realignment swings working-class districts toward GOP

"Republicans were the party of the country club, and they're increasingly the party of country."

www.axios.com

[Distribution chart included in the article]

--

Just as the sixties saw a reversal of party affiliation with the Southern Segregationists, we now seem to being seeing a reversal of party affiliation in terms of economic demography.
--

Interestingly, the article suggests the real driver may be education, with income reflecting the level of education, and with income being "downstream" from education.

But whatever's going-on, the correlation between income/education and party affiliation appears to be strong.

--

"May you live in interesting times!"

In addition, the GOP has been working on the state legislatures for a while now.

 

[Fletch]

The real 'driver' is that the left is no longer interested in the working man. They have become the party of coastal elites, universities, climate change and gender. They see the working, high school educzated middle class laborer as an idiot. Thats why they are losing them.

 

[Chomsky]

In addition, the GOP has been working on the state legislatures for a while now.

Yeah, but I believe that's a separate issue from demographic appeal.

 

[BitterPill]

In addition, the GOP has been working on the state legislatures for a while now.

We've done well with the courts, too.

MAGA.

 

[Jay59]

https://www.axios.com/2023/04/12/house-democrats-winning-wealthier-districts-middle-class-gop

[Distribution chart included in the article]

Just as the sixties saw a reversal of party affiliation with the Southern Segregationists, we now seem to being seeing a reversal of party affiliation in terms of economic demography.

Interestingly, the article suggests the real driver may be education, with income reflecting the level of education - with income being "downstream" from education. But whatever's going-on, the correlation between income/education and party affiliation appears to be strong.

"May you live in interesting times!"

This is about seven years late, but it's good to see that even Axios can see facts, eventually.

Funny how the article omits Reagan Democrats. Some prejudices never die.

 

[ttwtt78640]

The real 'driver' is that the left is no longer interested in the working man. They have become the party of coastal elites, universities, climate change and gender. They see the working, high school educzated middle class laborer as an idiot. Thats why they are losing them.

That point was included in the OP’s linked article.

• Meanwhile, "the more the Democratic Party becomes defined or stereotyped by elites and coastal interests with a lot of money, the harder it is to win the middle-income districts that they need to get to 218 [seats]," Wasserman said.

 

[BitterPill]

The real 'driver' is that the left is no longer interested in the working man. They have become the party of coastal elites, universities, climate change and gender. They see the working, high school educzated middle class laborer as an idiot. Thats why they are losing them.

Trump was instrumental in winning over the working class. From the time he came down an escalator to excoriate Mexicans while announcing his candidacy, to the beautiful wall he built using Mexican money suckered from Mexico via the NAFTA renegotiation, excluding Muslims from immigrating, steadfast support for the 2nd Amendment and even offering to buy Greenland (which is a great place for the working poor), Trump has shown he has a soft-spot for the everyday working MAGA man.

MAGA.

 

[Chomsky]

The real 'driver' is that the left is no longer interested in the working man. They have become the party of coastal elites, universities, climate change and gender. They see the working, high school educzated middle class laborer as an idiot. T hats why they are losing them.

I think your characterization, "They see the working, high school educzated middle class laborer as an idiot", is a bit hyperbolic. At least among party leadership. This can be seen by Dems standing behind Hispanic food workers unions, and vis a versa. I do believe Dems see Trump supporters in that light, though.

However, I believe the general demographic claims you make are accurate.

Much of this started with Reagan ("Reagan Democrats"), progressed through the Clintonian Third-Way Neo-Conservatism, and continued with "Trump Democrats".

I very much lament Dems ceding away much of the blue-collar working-class, particularly the older Caucasian subset. The good news is Biden seems to be making strides with the unions, which I applaud.

 

[Chomsky]

This is about seven years late, but it's good to see that even Axios can see facts, eventually.

Funny how the article omits Reagan Democrats. Some prejudices never die.

In my response to Fletch in post #9 here, I referenced "Reagan Democrats". Actually the trend was beginning with the McGovern nomination, but seemed to really pick-up going into Reagan's first term. I was not immune - I voted for Reagan.

(the only Presidential vote I sorely regretted)

 

[Buckeyes85]

Trump and his followers did a much better job appealing to the dumbest of our population despite not really doing a single thing to benefit them.

 

[Fletch]

In my response to Fletch in post #9 here, I referenced "Reagan Democrats". Actually the trend was beginning with the McGovern nomination, but seemed to really pick-up going into Reagan's first term. I was not immune - I voted for Reagan.

(the only Presidential vote I sorely regretted)

Yes, there used to be a fair amount of conservative democrats. Not any more.

 

[Fletch]

I think your characterization, "They see the working, high school educzated middle class laborer as an idiot", is a bit hyperbolic.

See post #11.

 

[Buckeyes85]

Yes, there used to be a fair amount of conservative democrats. Not any more.

Not if what currently stands for the republican party is what you claim to be "conservative."

 

[Chomsky]

See post #11.

Are you speaking of Dem leadership? Or, the rank & file?

As to rank & file, yeah we see it I won't deny.

 

[Chomsky]

Yes, there used to be a fair amount of conservative democrats. Not any more.

I grew-up with many!

 

[Fletch]

Not if what currently stands for the republican party is what you claim to be "conservative."

Explain the difference between the conservatism of Reagan and conservatism of today.

 

[Chomsky]

Yes, there used to be a fair amount of conservative democrats. Not any more.

I'll just add: Many of the older Caucasians lost were Catholics.

Dems have a quandary with Catholics, as the Party promotes many Catholic social-economic policies (feed the poor, house the poor, dignity of work, social-justice, redemption, etc.). But they also promote two big-time Catholic anathemas - abortion & homosexuality/transsexualism.

I don't see how the conflicts above can easily be resolved.

 

[ataraxia]

The real 'driver' is that the left is no longer interested in the working man. They have become the party of coastal elites, universities, climate change and gender. They see the working, high school educzated middle class laborer as an idiot. Thats why they are losing them.

The Democrat Party is the working man's party.

But ever since Reagan's time, the GOP has been using the working class' latent racism to cut taxes to their plutocrat sponsors. The GOP today is just a devil's bargain between those two groups: the plutocrats provide the money to keep racism and bigotry alive, and the racists provide the votes to cut taxes to the plutocrats (on their own backs if necessary). Win-win. Given the choice between being helped as a working man and losing the racism, obviously the racism wins.

Otherwise, there is no reason for the working class to be working this hard to make sure they get education investments cut for themselves and their own children, to get investment in job retraining cut for themselves so they can no longer compete in a 21st century world, to cut healthcare for themselves and their families, etc, etc....

It's hard not to see stuff like this, and not think "what idiots". They vote for the guy who promises to cut their healthcare, and then worry about their healthcare, LOL. It would be funny if it was not so sad.

 

[Buckeyes85]

Explain the difference between the conservatism of Reagan and conservatism of today.

Well for one, they represent culture warriors, place party over country, demonize anyone who does not share their views, are not remotely committed to financial conservatism and loathe inclusiveness.

(In before you claim I just described modern day liberals).

 

[ttwtt78640]

Explain the difference between the conservatism of Reagan and conservatism of today.

Not much since both increased federal spending while claiming not to favor increasing federal government power and expense.

 

[Phys251]

Dramatic realignment swings working-class districts toward GOP

"Republicans were the party of the country club, and they're increasingly the party of country."

www.axios.com

[Distribution chart included in the article]

--

Just as the sixties saw a reversal of party affiliation with the Southern Segregationists, we now seem to being seeing a reversal of party affiliation in terms of economic demography.
--

Interestingly, the article suggests the real driver may be education, with income reflecting the level of education - with income being "downstream" from education.

But whatever's going-on, the correlation between income/education and party affiliation appears to be strong.

--

"May you live in interesting times!"

And the suburbs are going blue. That would have been unthinkable two decades ago.

Party affiliations shift over time.

 

[Jay59]

In my response to Fletch in post #9 here, I referenced "Reagan Democrats". Actually the trend was beginning with the McGovern nomination, but seemed to really pick-up going into Reagan's first term. I was not immune - I voted for Reagan.

It's interesting that Trump is Reagan's heir in a real sense.

(the only Presidential vote I sorely regretted)

Why? He was the only good President in a 20 year period.

Not if what currently stands for the republican party is what you claim to be "conservative."

It's true that old school--Mills, Locke--liberals are found in the Republican party these days.

Still, the big difference is that Reagan was smooth and charismatic and Trump isn't.

 

[Buckeyes85]

Oh, of course I forgot the biggest difference between Reagon conservatives and current: currently conservatives support a reprehensible, pathologically lying scum bag- more like worship.

 

[vanceen]

If the Democratic party focused on helping working class people of all colors and less on extreme identity politics ideology, they would be unstoppable. As I've said before, the Democrats have the right policies and the most popular policies in most cases, but they keep tripping themselves up over Frankfurt School-derived ideology and "symbolism".