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Donald Trump's Losing Election Poll for First Time in Over a Month

noonereal said:
He is on record. He will debate.

Last time Harris debated she had to leave the race as a result.

People here are all giddy. Not being pragmatic at all.
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Being pragmatic necessarily means understanding the difference between the candidates and issues of 2020 and 2024.

Looking forward to watching Harris absolutely eviscerating Traitor Trump on the debate stage. 👍
 
ElChupacabra said:
I think looking at polling this early on doesn't make much sense in getting a realistic picture of anything. There's going to be excitement around a new candidate and her VP pick, but the real value will be in the trend lines over the coming weeks.
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It's a good indicator. It created a buzz. Donald has been bumped from the attention. He don't like that. Donald is in trouble until he can figure out how to steal the headlines again. No doubt he will come up with something.
 
Peacenik said:
It's a good indicator. It created a buzz. Donald has been bumped from the attention. He don't like that. Donald is in trouble until he can figure out how to steal the headlines again. No doubt he will come up with something.
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That's a fair point, and the Harris campaign should flood the zone in much the same way Trump does with his endless cherry bombs in the toilet.
 
BirdinHand said:
Trump can’t afford to lose numbers. Harris is just starting a campaign.
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meaning Harris negatives havent been exposed
BirdinHand said:
Trump has no convention bounce. All that money and pomp and circumstance…and nothing.
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convention bounces are smaller and smaller- but CNN showed a bounce
BirdinHand said:
The fact that suddenly a group of people that had no intention of voting WILL vote isn’t good news for Trump and MAGA.
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back to status quo , BIden was supressing the vote
BirdinHand said:
www.pbs.org

Harris and Trump are tied, poll finds. Here's why strategists say that's good for Democrats

Roughly three-quarters of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said Vice President Kamala Harris should be nominated for the top of their ticket in November, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll.
www.pbs.org www.pbs.org
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nothing thats shows anything better for Harris ..dont try to find something that not there

in this latest poll, 44 percent of U.S. adults said they viewed Harris unfavorably. At the same time, 40 percent said they regarded her favorably, while 15 percent said they were not sure, including 19 percent of independents.
 
Uncensored2008 said:
One would expect a small bounce after the switch.

But this poll is not consistent with the NBC poll from Monday. Further, measuring national popularity has not impact on the actual election. Trump continues his lead in all of the battle ground states - all of them.
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All I can find from a swing state (post Biden exit) is one poll from GA by Landmark Communications. Trump has a 1 point lead in that one.

I think we'll have to wait to see what moves may or may not have happened in swing states, once some new batches roll out.

You're right, though, that Trump headed into this nominee switch with a lead in every swing state.
 
Flaming Capitalist said:
I don't blame you for avoiding the question. It's quite embarrassing supporting Trump's lies, isn't it.
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Again.

I support Harris, i can't stand Trump.

Stop with your mindless stereotyping.
 
noonereal said:
He is on record. He will debate.

Last time Harris debated she had to leave the race as a result.

People here are all giddy. Not being pragmatic at all.
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It’s a different time and she will be debating a sexist pig and a bigot, and she is a lot more intelligent than he is and will be prepared for his childish attacks
 
Absentglare said:
You are incorrect. You are referring to the dem primary debates. Harris had a debate with Pence after the dem primary.
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Yes!!! That is what i was referring to.

Good God

Finally
 
RaleBulgarian said:
Being pragmatic necessarily means understanding the difference between the candidates and issues of 2020 and 2024.

Looking forward to watching Harris absolutely eviscerating Traitor Trump on the debate stage. 👍
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Hope so. Doubt it.
 
anatta said:
how can being in the lead not be "good numbers"..i've seen threads here " Harris juggernaut " :eek:
State poll matter, and Harris hasn't had any questioning of he time as VP

The CNN poll:

About three-quarters of Trump’s supporters (74%) say their vote is to express support for him rather than opposition to Harris. That’s an increase in affirmative support for him compared with the June CNN poll (66%), which came before an assassination attempt on Trump’s life and the Republican National Convention at which the former president formally accepted his party’s nomination. The poll finds Trump’s favorability rating ticking up to 43%, higher than it’s been since 2020 in CNN polling.
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By election time, the unsuccessful assassination attempt will be old news
 
noonereal said:
Yes!!! That is what i was referring to.

Good God

Finally
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She's actually a skilled debater. I meant that's what prosecuting attorneys do for a living.

Her first debate was a brutal take-down of then leading candidate Joe Biden. It's really more a case of losing the post-debate more than the debate itself. Her campaign's printing out 'That little girl was me' tee shirts within hours of the debate made her seem inauthentic, and attacking a venerated good guy and party elder because of a position he took 50+ years ago made her look a little reptilian.
 
I am also one who thinks we need a bit of time with polling before we can understand the Harris impact and any trends. So, in the meantime, I've been keeping an eye on the betting markets because they move immediately, rather than suffering from the lag we see with polling trends.

I'm seeing the betting markets maybe starting to settle and level a bit. The first chart shows the change from just today. The third chart will change a bit tomorrow when it updates to also include today's action seen in the first chart. Both of those are from one betting market only, PredictIt.

The middle chart shows all the betting markets RCP tracks, averaged. In that one, you can see a gradual downturn for Biden in June, even before the debate. Then a precipitous drop once the debate happened. Harris then starts to shoot up. But now, it all seems to be beginning to calm down to levels about like we had in June, pre-debate. If that happened, it wouldn't surprise me because I've long felt Biden and Harris might have similar election chances. Which is why I haven't really cared which one was the nominee. Obviously, we had the big debate chaos followed by the big nominee switch, but maybe now we're about to settle into a new norm, which may end up looking like the mid-June Trump/Biden situation. I'll keep watching to see if Harris has a little or a lot more room to grow or if we're starting to see a bit of a Harris ceiling already. Today's action would indicate she's at least hit some resistance in her dramatic climb of recent days.

By the way, I selected the 90 day view for both the 2nd and 3rd charts so we could view pre-debate Biden stuff, then all the chaos and changes, up until now.

Screenshot 2024-07-24 140657.pngScreenshot 2024-07-24 141054.pngScreenshot 2024-07-24 140618.png
 
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