Did the CDC/WHO overreact when it used social distancing to combat Covid in the US?

[avatar]

You do see how the two things very much conflict, right?

WHO cannot be guilty of downplaying the virus for China; and be guilty of exaggerating the virus in models. They cannot do both because these two things directly conflict with each other; in that one exposes the other. It's at this point I would think that you people would drop the partisan crap and allow your common sense to take over. Why does defending Donald Trump always come down to abandoning rationale?

This concept of rationale keeps coming up in discussions of Donald Trump. I'm at a loss as to what prompts that idea.

 

[MSgt]

This concept of rationale keeps coming up in discussions of Donald Trump. I'm at a loss as to what prompts that idea.

It thoroughly disappoints me. You have no idea.

I used to declare that "I got a paycheck" when people made me uncomfortable about thanking me for my service (didn't know what else to say), but since that thanks is based on an ideology of my career I now actually feel that I wasted a part of my life for them. I don't think a good portion of the American population deserves the blood that was shed for them. They confuse Declaration with Constitution and think nothing about it. Because they are Republican? No. Because they choose to be so ignorant and so ****ing partisan stupid.

 

[Manc Skipper]

Or, not. COVID-19 can spread inside restaurants, via ventilation systems.

Early Release - COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020 - Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC

Surely it is safer to reduce the capacity of restaurants and retail spaces, but that's not 100% safe. When we have extensive testing and contact tracing, we can consider opening restaurants and retail. But doing that now will almost certainly just restart the spread.

By the way, restaurants and retail can't survive for long at half capacity. They'd still need to reduce staff, and still require government assistance, to survive.

They'd need to drop aircon too because that's implicated in the spread.

 

[Indie guy]

Or, not. COVID-19 can spread inside restaurants, via ventilation systems.

Early Release - COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020 - Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC

Surely it is safer to reduce the capacity of restaurants and retail spaces, but that's not 100% safe. When we have extensive testing and contact tracing, we can consider opening restaurants and retail. But doing that now will almost certainly just restart the spread.

By the way, restaurants and retail can't survive for long at half capacity. They'd still need to reduce staff, and still require government assistance, to survive.

I believe I addressed the concern about ventilation systems. They need to be cleaned out regularly, and this is part of the problem. Many businesses have never made the effort to get their ducts and vents cleaned.

 

[Visbek]

I believe I addressed the concern about ventilation systems. They need to be cleaned out regularly, and this is part of the problem. Many businesses have never made the effort to get their ducts and vents cleaned.

Nope, that is not the issue.

In the example in the paper, the virus spread during the course of a single meal, and they didn't find virus particles in the AC itself. It's likely some of the transmission was just a result of the way the airflow in the restaurant was altered by the AC. If virus particles flowed through the AC, they did not stick to it. Cleaning the AC filter will not have any effect.

 

[cabse5]

No it's not. We've had ONE person in our home in the last several weeks, and he walked through the house to the back door (we need some repairs done) and was inside for 10 seconds or less. A nursing home has anywhere from dozens to hundreds of staff, two-three shifts a day, 7 days/week, 365 days per year. A nurse will be in everyone's room on her shift up to 4 or more times, every day. So if CV19 gets established, he or she will have a chance to pick up the virus in the room of the infected and spread it from room to room at least 2-4 times every day. Etc.....

Have you never been in a nursing home or assisted living facility?

My mom was in a nursing home facility before I took her out and I took her out because I know nursing home facilities don't protect those most susceptible to Covid.

 

[cabse5]

I haven't seen it, so link to it. You've repeated the rest of your theory, the goals of this plan, but no action steps, about 100 times on different threads, so I see no reason you can't also repeat this plan I've never seen.

I've posted my plan of reverse quarantining those most susceptible to Covid numerous times on DP and in this thread.

 

[cabse5]

That's not even remotely correct.

Very early on, health authorities recognized that this was nothing like Ebola (which, in areas like Africa without much health infrastructure, has a 50% mortality rate). They knew it was much worse than a typical influenza, but never thought it was like Ebola.



Actually, epidemiologists had a very good idea of the impacts, including economic and political consequences. They know we can't socially distance forever; the idea is to buy time to develop more targeted quarantines -- time that the federal government has largely squandered.

However, if we had not engaged in wide-spread social distancing, the economic and most of the political consequences were coming anyway. Don't fool yourself on that point.

After 6 weeks extreme social distancing has become unsustainable. Epidemiologists didn't look that far ahead.

 

[cabse5]

All those conclusions are your unproven opinion and not what the medical experts say. You are making crap up to fit your own agenda...we can only correct you so many times and you just ignore the facts.

Sickness and death rates based on earlier infections...dont change the fact that this virus is highly contagious and kills people and that social distancing has been effective. That is useful information for some purposes...but what do you think it changes in terms of how we've dealt with the virus?

CV 19 is potentially deadly to everyone and many people not in those 3 groups have died. Herd immunity might not even be possible since right now, there's no strong evidence that it's conferred with infection. People are getting re-infected...you've been told this, and continue to ignore it. Why do you post the same crap over and over when you know it's wrong?

I didn't think it was necessary to paint a picture so you'd understand...I didn't think there was the need to embarrass you.

That's right, the virus dies after 2 weeks, or so, but the extreme social distancing environment must also die because extreme social distancing is unsustainable. Once the extreme social distancing environment dies, the cases of infection skyrocket (the cases you care about) and the cases of hospitalization and death also skyrocket (the cases everyone should be most concerned about).

I suppose you'd propose a further round of extreme social distancing restrictions of movements...into the home, again, for example? How are you gonna know those folks reentering the home aren't infected with Covid? Are you planning to test everyone before everyone huddles back into their homes? :roll:

I'd agree, social distancing is effective...in preserving hospital resources...period.

People may be re-infected but they also have ANTIBODIES to fight off the infection from the earlier infection. These antibodies may be enough to ward off a second, third, fourth or fifth attack of Covid. If people have developed antibodies from numerous attacks of Covid infection, they may never realize they've been infected because they aren't sick...Aren't in hospitals.

We may never be able to develop antibodies to Covid (and develop a vaccine faster) because the 'scientific community' doesn't want to establish any type of herd immunity.

 

[rjay]

I usually ignore the rhetorical posts w/o facts and laden with emotions.

Then you will understand when I ignore your post when you say the CDC or WHO implemented anything in the U.S. It seems to me most of the implementation was done by elected representatives. If you cannot get facts straight in your poll question, then, as you say, best to ignore.

 

[cabse5]

Then you will understand when I ignore your post when you say the CDC or WHO implemented anything in the U.S. It seems to me most of the implementation was done by elected representatives. If you cannot get facts straight in your poll question, then, as you say, best to ignore.

You've listened to Trump's comments during daily Covid press briefings. Trump is saying what he's been told by scientists. The scientists are driving this extreme social distancing program to flatten the curve. What? You think Trump wanted to destroy the economy??:lamo

 

[CaughtInThe]

It's a damn shame that some Americans still haven't figured out that it's important to save other American's lives.

This Trump Republican party is not pro life.

 

[rjay]

You've listened to Trump's comments during daily Covid press briefings. Trump is saying what he's been told by scientists. The scientists are driving this extreme social distancing program to flatten the curve. What? You think Trump wanted to destroy the economy??:lamo

Nice deflection. I did not say Trump implemented anything, I said elected representatives implemented the measures being taken. You said WHO and the CDC implemented these measures in the U.S. That is simply factually wrong.

 

[JasperL]

My mom was in a nursing home facility before I took her out and I took her out because I know nursing home facilities don't protect those most susceptible to Covid.

OK, so now you've abandoned your old point and moved the goal posts somewhere else. I don't know why I bother making posts when you're just ignoring them to restate your conclusions.

 

[JasperL]

You've listened to Trump's comments during daily Covid press briefings. Trump is saying what he's been told by scientists. The scientists are driving this extreme social distancing program to flatten the curve. What? You think Trump wanted to destroy the economy??

What? You think scientists wanted to destroy the economy? :lamo :2rofll:

 

[JasperL]

I've posted my plan of reverse quarantining those most susceptible to Covid numerous times on DP and in this thread.

So link to it, or give me a post number in this thread. Saying the words "reverse quarantining" is NOT a plan to get that done. It's to state the goal. The hard part are the 1,000 little details, and overcoming obvious and massive hurdles to get it done. You've not to my knowledge even recognized the hurdles, and you sure as hell haven't identified plans to overcome problems you've ignored.

If I'm wrong, link to your plan, or someone else's.

 

[JasperL]

I didn't think it was necessary to paint a picture so you'd understand...I didn't think there was the need to embarrass you.

That's right, the virus dies after 2 weeks, or so, but the extreme social distancing environment must also die because extreme social distancing is unsustainable. Once the extreme social distancing environment dies, the cases of infection skyrocket (the cases you care about) and the cases of hospitalization and death also skyrocket (the cases everyone should be most concerned about).

I suppose you'd propose a further round of extreme social distancing restrictions of movements...into the home, again, for example? How are you gonna know those folks reentering the home aren't infected with Covid? Are you planning to test everyone before everyone huddles back into their homes? :roll:

I'd agree, social distancing is effective...in preserving hospital resources...period.

People may be re-infected but they also have ANTIBODIES to fight off the infection from the earlier infection. These antibodies may be enough to ward off a second, third, fourth or fifth attack of Covid. If people have developed antibodies from numerous attacks of Covid infection, they may never realize they've been infected because they aren't sick...Aren't in hospitals.

We may never be able to develop antibodies to Covid (and develop a vaccine faster) because the 'scientific community' doesn't want to establish any type of herd immunity.

Yes, shocking the 'scientific community' advises against a plan that would establish herd immunity, infect at least 200 million, and kill perhaps 2 million and send another 8-10 million to the hospital. what a bunch of idiots!

 

[Visbek]

So link to it, or give me a post number in this thread. Saying the words "reverse quarantining" is NOT a plan to get that done. It's to state the goal.

Based on previous posts, my guess is that he wants to round up all the high-risk individuals, and put them in Quarantine Camps in the middle of Wyoming, so that everyone else can act like nothing changed.

 

[American]

You do see how the two things very much conflict, right?

WHO cannot be guilty of downplaying the virus for China; and be guilty of exaggerating the virus in models. They cannot do both because these two things directly conflict with each other; in that one exposes the other. It's at this point I would think that you people would drop the partisan crap and allow your common sense to take over. Why does defending Donald Trump always come down to abandoning rationale?

They support the lie that cases in China have dropped off, and are way lower than the US. That simply is bull****.

 

[Lursa]

I didn't think it was necessary to paint a picture so you'd understand...I didn't think there was the need to embarrass you.

That's right, the virus dies after 2 weeks, or so, but the extreme social distancing environment must also die because extreme social distancing is unsustainable. Once the extreme social distancing environment dies, the cases of infection skyrocket (the cases you care about) and the cases of hospitalization and death also skyrocket (the cases everyone should be most concerned about).

Oh. My. God. I'll just cut and paste why this is wrong....again.

First, it does stop some people from being infected because when you remove enough of the host species, the virus is transmitted fewer times and eventually finds less and less to infect* The virus eventually peters out, it starves in a sense. It becomes so sparse it stops finding new hosts and stops being transmitted.


Second it makes a difference because flattening that curve does save lives. Your statements to the opposite are ludicrous. If the sick are more spread out, then the hospitals are able to handle fewer numbers and keep up with demand with medical supplies. The more people that can be successfully treated with the necessary medical resources, the more survive*

*If people all fall into the hospitals at the same time, fewer get the needed treatment since it's not all available and more die*



Third, by allowing a microbe to freely and unrestrictedly circulate in a population, by definition that means millions more replications of the microbe, and millions more opportunities for virulent mutations to occur. (It works less frequently in the opposite direction because with unrestricted feeding, a microbe can afford to kill quickly). So what you recommend also opens the door to a more dangerous form of the virus.​

And I've explained point 2 to you in-depth right here in this thread, and more than once elsewhere. Jeebus! :roll:

Not only all this, but now we dont even know if people will become immune after exposure. People have been re-infected. We are still trying to get a handle on that.

This is the barely coherent and grammatically inept speech of a man who desperately wants to be able to claim that he "cured coronavirus."

That's it, in a nutshell. When we do get a handle on this crisis, he wants to be able to pull out footage and declare "I called it! I said use this! I said try this! I told them to do this, it was my idea!" He's just doing it with lots of stupid stuff because he doesnt want to miss an opportunity. He's afraid 'the big one' will be mentioned and he wont get credit for it.

It's all about declaring himself the savior of the cv crisis and we'll hear all about it, esp in his campaign. (Which is basically each of his press briefings these days) --- Lursa

 

[Lursa]

People may be re-infected but they also have ANTIBODIES to fight off the infection from the earlier infection. These antibodies may be enough to ward off a second, third, fourth or fifth attack of Covid. If people have developed antibodies from numerous attacks of Covid infection, they may never realize they've been infected because they aren't sick...Aren't in hospitals.

We may never be able to develop antibodies to Covid (and develop a vaccine faster) because the 'scientific community' doesn't want to establish any type of herd immunity.

Right now, this is unproven. People are getting re-infected. We do not know if or for how long immunity is conferred on people. So your assumptions here are misguided and presumptive.

Can you please source the bold? What is your reason for believing that about the scientific community? Link please.

This is the barely coherent and grammatically inept speech of a man who desperately wants to be able to claim that he "cured coronavirus."

That's it, in a nutshell. When we do get a handle on this crisis, he wants to be able to pull out footage and declare "I called it! I said use this! I said try this! I told them to do this, it was my idea!" He's just doing it with lots of stupid stuff because he doesnt want to miss an opportunity. He's afraid 'the big one' will be mentioned and he wont get credit for it.

It's all about declaring himself the savior of the cv crisis and we'll hear all about it, esp in his campaign. (Which is basically each of his press briefings these days) --- Lursa

 

[Lursa]

After 6 weeks extreme social distancing has become unsustainable. Epidemiologists didn't look that far ahead.

??? Again, this isnt remotely any kind of extreme 'social distancing.' And your foolish statement about epidemiologists is ludicrous. I've been reading their accounts of scenarios and predictions and modeling and PAST epidemic strategy/results for more than 2 decades and they look waaaayyy ahead. They have considered many many scenarios and timeframes and outcomes :doh

This is the barely coherent and grammatically inept speech of a man who desperately wants to be able to claim that he "cured coronavirus."

That's it, in a nutshell. When we do get a handle on this crisis, he wants to be able to pull out footage and declare "I called it! I said use this! I said try this! I told them to do this, it was my idea!" He's just doing it with lots of stupid stuff because he doesnt want to miss an opportunity. He's afraid 'the big one' will be mentioned and he wont get credit for it.

It's all about declaring himself the savior of the cv crisis and we'll hear all about it, esp in his campaign. (Which is basically each of his press briefings these days) --- Lursa

 

[Lursa]

I've posted my plan of reverse quarantining those most susceptible to Covid numerous times on DP and in this thread.

And it's been discussed and pulled apart as not feasible just as many times. Including in this thread.

Why do you keep posting provably wrong claims and info?

JasperL just did in post 143 and I did in post 131.

Which you have seen before.

And where did you ever read that nursing homes are 'social distancing environments?'

This is the barely coherent and grammatically inept speech of a man who desperately wants to be able to claim that he "cured coronavirus."

That's it, in a nutshell. When we do get a handle on this crisis, he wants to be able to pull out footage and declare "I called it! I said use this! I said try this! I told them to do this, it was my idea!" He's just doing it with lots of stupid stuff because he doesnt want to miss an opportunity. He's afraid 'the big one' will be mentioned and he wont get credit for it.

It's all about declaring himself the savior of the cv crisis and we'll hear all about it, esp in his campaign. (Which is basically each of his press briefings these days) --- Lursa

 

[Lursa]

Based on previous posts, my guess is that he wants to round up all the high-risk individuals, and put them in Quarantine Camps in the middle of Wyoming, so that everyone else can act like nothing changed.

And I've spelled out, in detail, why his idea of isolating all vulnerable/at-risk people wont work. I just keep cutting and pasting it. And he keeps on and on....

JasperL just did in post 143 and I did in post 131.

Which you have seen before.

And where did you ever read that nursing homes are 'social distancing environments?'

This is the barely coherent and grammatically inept speech of a man who desperately wants to be able to claim that he "cured coronavirus."

That's it, in a nutshell. When we do get a handle on this crisis, he wants to be able to pull out footage and declare "I called it! I said use this! I said try this! I told them to do this, it was my idea!" He's just doing it with lots of stupid stuff because he doesnt want to miss an opportunity. He's afraid 'the big one' will be mentioned and he wont get credit for it.

It's all about declaring himself the savior of the cv crisis and we'll hear all about it, esp in his campaign. (Which is basically each of his press briefings these days) --- Lursa

 

[JasperL]

Based on previous posts, my guess is that he wants to round up all the high-risk individuals, and put them in Quarantine Camps in the middle of Wyoming, so that everyone else can act like nothing changed.

Right, and then at a minimum, send millions of healthy younger people to those quarantine camps for the duration to care for the 50-100 million vulnerable people, with those workers separated for the duration from family and friends in that remote camp....