WSJ
6/7/18
Democrats are showing considerably more interest in the fall elections than are Republicans, and voters overall are signaling they would like control of Congress to flip to the Democrats, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds. The Democratic advantages come at the same time President Donald Trump’s approval rating has improved to 44%, one of its highest marks since he took office. Nearly two-thirds of voters are satisfied with the economy, one of the strongest showings since 2001. Some 53% of voters disapprove of Mr. Trump’s job performance, however. His approval rating is similar to that of Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ronald Reagan at this point in their tenure, ahead of substantial losses in House races during their first midterm elections. The survey of 900 registered voters “points to a repudiation of Donald Trump, to the benefit of Democrats,” said Fred Yang, a Democratic pollster who conducted the survey with Republican Bill McInturff. For his part, Mr. McInturff said that poll numbers have been “bouncing around” in recent months, making it difficult to know with certainty where voters “are going to land.” Democrats need to pick up 23 seats in the House and two in the Senate to regain control of Congress.
The poll, conducted June 1-4, found that one issue that has moved off the main agenda in Washington—health care—still tops the agenda among many voters. Asked to pick the top issue from a list of seven that could decide their vote in November, 22% in the survey named health care, followed by the economy and jobs, at 19%. Democratic voters were far more likely to pick health care as the top issue than were Republicans. Independents were evenly divided between health care and the economy. Five months before the voting, Democrats are more focused on the campaign. Some 63% of Democrats said they are very interested in the midterms, compared with 47% of Republicans. Democrats’ interest in the race exceeds that of a comparable point in 2006—a year when the party picked up 31 House and six Senate seats in a midterm rout that then-Republican President George W. Bush called a “thumping.” The midterm elections could redirect Mr. Trump’s presidency, depending on the outcome. Should Congress flip to the Democrats, Mr. Trump would face considerably more resistance to his agenda, including the construction of a border wall and the confirmation of conservative-minded judges. Nearly half of voters, 48%, said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who promised to be a check on Mr. Trump, while 23% said they would be less likely to vote for that candidate.