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Delegate Count as of 3/6/2016

JumpinJack said:
Cruz is not and never has been an establishment Senator. He is Tea Party through and through, and that's why he was sent to the Senate by his voters.

BUT, as Lindsay Graham said this morning, the establishment may have to get behind Cruz as the only way to stop Trump. IMO, that does not make Cruz an estalishment candidate. Cruz hasn't changed. It's the establishment who has changed to defeat Trump (as opposed to wanting a Cruz win independent of anything else, because they don't). Cruz is and will be for the foreseeable future a Tea Partier. Someone who will shut the government down even though it hurts the country and no good will come out of it. Cruz will continue to have his hired guns send out fake flyers claiming things about other candidates that aren't true. He will cont. to fund robocalls that lie to voters. He will continue to be bought and paid for by oil and gas companies.
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I get that politics is a blood sport, but that crap has been pissing me off. Cruz is my second choice, but he is making that difficult.
 
David_N said:
You support a candidate who wants a VAT?
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I don't like parts of either Cruz or Rubio's tax plans. If Cruz would shift the VAT to being a transparent sales tax, I would support it much more. But non-transparency in the tax code is (we and others have learned the hard way) destructive and dangerous.
 
cpwill said:
A brokered convention may be baked in the cake at this point. Even if Trump wins both Ohio and Florida on the 15th, I think he still needs to win 50% of all remaining delegates. That's a tall order in a winnowing race for someone with his negatives.
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it will be interesting, at least. however, if he runs away with it and they give it to one of the establishment third or fourth placers, then they are risking a schism.
 
Helix said:
it will be interesting, at least. however, if he runs away with it and they give it to one of the establishment third or fourth placers, then they are risking a schism.
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I think at that point, the unity candidate is Cruz, whom (many) Trump supporters can get behind because he is so clearly hated by the Establishment, and whom (almost all) of the moderates can get behind because he also isnt' ****ing insane.

That's a much harder push uphill in the General Election than Rubio would be (and I still think that Rubio is the best possible messenger for the GOP). But it's a good sight better than civil war.
 
cpwill said:
Kasich is doing a good job of playing spoiler, managing to pick his battles well to keep Rubio from getting delegates and wins. It's a patently obvious VP strategy, but he's good at it.


Cruz has less chance of winning Florida than Rubio does, which is what upsets me about this. IF he is successful, he's going to replicate Kasich's effects, and give 99 delegates to Trump. That's not winning. That's losing.
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It is my understanding that Rubio's campaign contacted Kasich's campaign asking them to get out of the race. Kasich told them no. Cruz called for Rubio and Kasich to drop out and they said no. So what Cruz is about to do is keep Rubio from winning his race and force him out. It's a brilliant strategy. It may mean 99 delegates to Trump now verses hundreds of delegates where Rubio siphons from Cruz later. Or Cruz could win the dang thing. The polls at RCP have been way off and Cruz seems to well over performing their averages.
Take Kentucky this weekend, according to the polls Trump was suppose to win that by 12 points. It didn't happen. Same with Louisiana. In fact it was revealed that early voting is what put Trump over the top in Louisiana because voting that day was favoring Cruz. Kansas showed Trump with a significant lead the day of voting but Cruz crushed Trump receiving twice as many votes as Trump. It was said that Cruz would not do well in Maine either and yet smoked Trump.

Rubio on the other hand had a horrible day and so did Kasich. Look either these two win their own states or their money will dry up.

Oh and for the record, after Saturday, Cruz had his biggest fundraiser day so far raking in 1.5 million. And today I learned that 4 senators will be coming out this week to endorse Cruz. He also had a great op-ed in the WSJ today over A. Scalia praising his fellow senators for signing on to refuse to hold hearings on a Obama apointee.
 
cpwill said:
I think at that point, the unity candidate is Cruz, whom (many) Trump supporters can get behind because he is so clearly hated by the Establishment, and whom (almost all) of the moderates can get behind because he also isnt' ****ing insane.
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he's not insane, but i doubt that he'll appeal much to the middle. i can't believe how much the GOP dropped the ball this time, though. i mean, Clinton can hardly be described as a likable candidate, and i doubt that even her supporters are just bursting at the seams with excitement. she was essentially nominated before a vote was cast, and she has to run against Democratic fatigue. the right GOP candidate would probably have run away with the election.
 
Helix said:
he's not insane, but i doubt that he'll appeal much to the middle. i can't believe how much the GOP dropped the ball this time, though. i mean, Clinton can hardly be described as a likable candidate, and i doubt that even her supporters are just bursting at the seams with excitement. she was essentially nominated before a vote was cast, and she has to run against Democratic fatigue. the right GOP candidate would probably have run away with the election.
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Dude. You are singing my song. You win, guy who invested in Captain Morgan stock before the start of this campaign season.
 
i love how all the dems on here are counting their chickens before they hatch

seems to me....that has been an issue before
 
vesper said:
It is my understanding that Rubio's campaign contacted Kasich's campaign asking them to get out of the race. Kasich told them no. Cruz called for Rubio and Kasich to drop out and they said no. So what Cruz is about to do is keep Rubio from winning his race and force him out. It's a brilliant strategy. It may mean 99 delegates to Trump now verses hundreds of delegates where Rubio siphons from Cruz later.
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Both Cruz and Rubio have suffered from a "mini-me" draining votes from them. For Cruz, that was Carson, who has since dropped out. For Rubio, that's Kasich. The difference is, Kasich was much more effective at choosing his battles and targeting his Bigger-Me, whereas I'm still not sure what Carson thought he was doing with his campaign.

Brilliant to give Trump 99 Free delegates? I don't think so. Vain, maybe. For those of us who prioritize Trump Not Winning over one of the two conservatives being the particular one to win, it's infuriating. Cruz is extremely unlikely to win Florida, all he is doing is continuing the fratricidal war among the not-Trumps that we have seen starting in New Hampshire, to Donald Trump's advantage. To the credit of both men, they have not done so on the debate stage.

Or Cruz could win the dang thing.
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Ted Cruz is currently assessed as having a less than 1% chance of winning Florida. Rubio, at least, has a 40% chance.

Take Kentucky this weekend, according to the polls Trump was suppose to win that by 12 points. It didn't happen. Same with Louisiana. In fact it was revealed that early voting is what put Trump over the top in Louisiana because voting that day was favoring Cruz. Kansas showed Trump with a significant lead the day of voting but Cruz crushed Trump receiving twice as many votes as Trump. It was said that Cruz would not do well in Maine either and yet smoked Trump.
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You are right that Trump is dropping. In Florida, however, undercutting Rubio doesn't mean that Cruz wins. It means that he protects Trump.

For the same reason, even though I personally find the man extremely grating, annoying, cowardly, and blatantly self-serving, neither man should target Kasich in Ohio, but rather target him everywhere else where the delegates are proportional. You don't give Donald Trump large blocs of delegates at this stage.

Rubio on the other hand had a horrible day and so did Kasich. Look either these two win their own states or their money will dry up.
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Oh yeah, if either don't win their states, their chances of winning the 1237 go from small to vanishingly nothing. Kasich has already admitted he can't get to 1237, and is now playing spoiler in hopes of being able to pull in as Trump's VP.

Oh and for the record, after Saturday, Cruz had his biggest fundraiser day so far raking in 1.5 million. And today I learned that 4 senators will be coming out this week to endorse Cruz. He also had a great op-ed in the WSJ today over A. Scalia praising his fellow senators for signing on to refuse to hold hearings on a Obama apointee.
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I read the op-ed and that 4 senators will be endorsing. I'm tempted to name Sasse and Lee off of straight ideological closeness, but honestly have no idea. If he's smart and trying to really cripple Rubio's steam, it will include someone that should have been a Rubio-backer, rather than simply a Who's Who of the big name conservative types. Part of me hope that Sessions is one of them after Trump declaring his Flexibility... and part of me has decided that the act of endorsing Trump is an irrevocable deed, and that whomsoever does so should be punished. Forever.



My dream at this point would be for Rubio and Cruz to announce that they will support at the convention whichsoever of them comes with the most delegates, and spend the rest of the campaign utterly smashing Trump and Kasich (in every state but Ohio). Then let the best man be at the top of the ticket, and the second be VP.

But that would require that politicians seeking the POTUS slot cease being self-interested actors convinced of their own necessity and put the country's benefit ahead of their own... so.... probably out of luck.
 
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cpwill said:
Both Cruz and Rubio have suffered from a "mini-me" draining votes from them. For Cruz, that was Carson, who has since dropped out. For Rubio, that's Kasich. The difference is, Kasich was much more effective at choosing his battles and targeting his Bigger-Me, whereas I'm still not sure what Carson thought he was doing with his campaign.

Brilliant to give Trump 99 Free delegates? I don't think so. Vain, maybe. For those of us who prioritize Trump Not Winning over one of the two conservatives being the particular one to win, it's infuriating. Cruz is extremely unlikely to win Florida, all he is doing is continuing the fratricidal war among the not-Trumps that we have seen starting in New Hampshire, to Donald Trump's advantage. To the credit of both men, they have not done so on the debate stage.



Ted Cruz is currently assessed as having a less than 1% chance of winning Florida. Rubio, at least, has a 40% chance.



You are right that Trump is dropping. In Florida, however, undercutting Rubio doesn't mean that Cruz wins. It means that he protects Trump.

For the same reason, even though I personally find the man extremely grating, annoying, cowardly, and blatantly self-serving, neither man should target Kasich in Ohio, but rather target him everywhere else where the delegates are proportional. You don't give Donald Trump large blocs of delegates at this stage.



Oh yeah, if either don't win their states, their chances of winning the 1237 go from small to vanishingly nothing. Kasich has already admitted he can't get to 1237, and is now playing spoiler in hopes of being able to pull in as Trump's VP.



I read the op-ed and that 4 senators will be endorsing. I'm tempted to name Sasse and Lee off of straight ideological closeness, but honestly have no idea. If he's smart and trying to really cripple Rubio's steam, it will include someone that should have been a Rubio-backer, rather than simply a Who's Who of the big name conservative types. Part of me hope that Sessions is one of them after Trump declaring his Flexibility... and part of me has decided that the act of endorsing Trump is an irrevocable deed, and that whomsoever does so should be punished. Forever.



My dream at this point would be for Rubio and Cruz to announce that they will support at the convention whichsoever of them comes with the most delegates, and spend the rest of the campaign utterly smashing Trump and Kasich (in every state but Ohio). Then let the best man be at the top of the ticket, and the second be VP.

But that would require that politicians seeking the POTUS slot cease being self-interested actors convinced of their own necessity and put the country's benefit ahead of their own... so.... probably out of luck.
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I think you have double standards when it comes to Rubio. You do realize his campaign poured millions into Texas in negative ads while Rubio joined Trump in calling Cruz a liar on the campaign trail and at the debates etc in hopes to keep Cruz from taking the prize in Texas. Cruz came up just a couple points short from taking it all. You know this isn't Romper Room and Rubio has dealt out plenty and he is in no position to expect some kind of deal with Cruz. None.
 
cpwill said:
Both Cruz and Rubio have suffered from a "mini-me" draining votes from them. For Cruz, that was Carson, who has since dropped out. For Rubio, that's Kasich. The difference is, Kasich was much more effective at choosing his battles and targeting his Bigger-Me, whereas I'm still not sure what Carson thought he was doing with his campaign.

Brilliant to give Trump 99 Free delegates? I don't think so. Vain, maybe. For those of us who prioritize Trump Not Winning over one of the two conservatives being the particular one to win, it's infuriating. Cruz is extremely unlikely to win Florida, all he is doing is continuing the fratricidal war among the not-Trumps that we have seen starting in New Hampshire, to Donald Trump's advantage. To the credit of both men, they have not done so on the debate stage.



Ted Cruz is currently assessed as having a less than 1% chance of winning Florida. Rubio, at least, has a 40% chance.



You are right that Trump is dropping. In Florida, however, undercutting Rubio doesn't mean that Cruz wins. It means that he protects Trump.

For the same reason, even though I personally find the man extremely grating, annoying, cowardly, and blatantly self-serving, neither man should target Kasich in Ohio, but rather target him everywhere else where the delegates are proportional. You don't give Donald Trump large blocs of delegates at this stage.



Oh yeah, if either don't win their states, their chances of winning the 1237 go from small to vanishingly nothing. Kasich has already admitted he can't get to 1237, and is now playing spoiler in hopes of being able to pull in as Trump's VP.



I read the op-ed and that 4 senators will be endorsing. I'm tempted to name Sasse and Lee off of straight ideological closeness, but honestly have no idea. If he's smart and trying to really cripple Rubio's steam, it will include someone that should have been a Rubio-backer, rather than simply a Who's Who of the big name conservative types. Part of me hope that Sessions is one of them after Trump declaring his Flexibility... and part of me has decided that the act of endorsing Trump is an irrevocable deed, and that whomsoever does so should be punished. Forever.



My dream at this point would be for Rubio and Cruz to announce that they will support at the convention whichsoever of them comes with the most delegates, and spend the rest of the campaign utterly smashing Trump and Kasich (in every state but Ohio). Then let the best man be at the top of the ticket, and the second be VP.

But that would require that politicians seeking the POTUS slot cease being self-interested actors convinced of their own necessity and put the country's benefit ahead of their own... so.... probably out of luck.
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Greetings, cpwill. :2wave:

Great post! :thumbs: I read an interesting post on another site today that I didn't understand. I wrote it down, hoping someone here who understands math could explain to me.... :shrug:

"Kasich controls 5 - 10 percent of delegates"

"Trump people refuse to cooperate with the Cruz people"

"Kasich controls the convention"

"Think about it..."

WTH is the poster talking about? Is what the poster stated logical or even possible? :shock:
 
vesper said:
I think you have double standards when it comes to Rubio. You do realize his campaign poured millions into Texas in negative ads while Rubio joined Trump in calling Cruz a liar on the campaign trail and at the debates etc in hopes to keep Cruz from taking the prize in Texas. Cruz came up just a couple points short from taking it all. You know this isn't Romper Room and Rubio has dealt out plenty and he is in no position to expect some kind of deal with Cruz. None.
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1. Texas is a proportional state. I have stated that both should continue to campaign in proportional states, and they should. I have also stated that they should stop attacking each other, including in proportional states, and they should. There was no "prize" to take in Texas other than breaking the 20% threshold, a prize which Rubio was denied. He put money into Texas to try to get over that line, and barely didn't.

2. If Cruz wants to stop being called a liar, then he, his campaign, and their associated PACS should stop lying. We have gone over this at some length before.

3. Driving forward, both men should ensure that whatever has to happen to make sure that Trump doesn't win winner-take-all-states happens, while competing in the proportional states. The key at this point is to deny Donald 1,237. That isn't going to happen if both men spend all their resources time and energy clawing at each other. Their behavior in the debates has been an excellent model for this, and should be replicated in their campaigns.

4. Rubio has about as much right to expect a deal from Cruz as Cruz does from Rubio - they are political opponents. The people who have a right to expect a détente from both of them are conservatives who don't want our party hijacked by a liberal authoritarian. That would require both men to demonstrate patriotism. We'll see if they do.
 
polgara said:
Greetings, cpwill. :2wave:

Great post! :thumbs: I read an interesting post on another site today that I didn't understand. I wrote it down, hoping someone here who understands math could explain to me.... :shrug:

"Kasich controls 5 - 10 percent of delegates"

"Trump people refuse to cooperate with the Cruz people"

"Kasich controls the convention"

"Think about it..."

WTH is the poster talking about? Is what the poster stated logical or even possible? :shock:
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The idea is, Trump goes into the convention with less than 1,237, but Kasich's support can put him over the top. He makes a deal for Kasich to pick up VP, and they are the nominee.

Yes, it's possible. It's less than perfectly mathematical, however, because many of the early-state delegates (including Trump's) are not Trump-people, but rather GOP-people selected on behalf of their States. They are obliged on the first ballot, but free actors afterwards.
 
disneydude said:
Rubiot is a fool. He only got as far as he did because he is a pretty boy. Once you got beyond the face, he couldn't stand up.
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Rubio simply lost his conservative credentials when he joined forces with idiots like John McCain and Chuck Schumer. If not for the anti-establishment republican movement, he might have had a shot. He was done the moment Trump and Cruz entered the race.
 
Helix said:
he's not insane, but i doubt that he'll appeal much to the middle. i can't believe how much the GOP dropped the ball this time, though. i mean, Clinton can hardly be described as a likable candidate, and i doubt that even her supporters are just bursting at the seams with excitement. she was essentially nominated before a vote was cast, and she has to run against Democratic fatigue. the right GOP candidate would probably have run away with the election.
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Minus a brokered GOP convention, in my opinion any republican candidate still standing right now could beat Hillary. She is damaged goods.
 
gdgyva said:
i love how all the dems on here are counting their chickens before they hatch

seems to me....that has been an issue before
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Yep. I still vividly recall most of them on the talkboard early on guaranteeing us that it would be Hillary against Jeb Bush.
 
ObamacareFail said:
You would not know an extremist is you saw one. Cruz is a mainstream conservative.
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LOL.....riiiiiiiiiiiight. I don't know of ANY conservative that would find holding the country hostage, wasting millions of taxpayer dollars, all the while reading "green eggs and ham" to the nation...a particularly "conservative" thing to do.
 
ObamacareFail said:
Rubio simply lost his conservative credentials when he joined forces with idiots like John McCain and Chuck Schumer. If not for the anti-establishment republican movement, he might have had a shot. He was done the moment Trump and Cruz entered the race.
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Actually.....Rubiot did himself in when he displayed that he is an empty suit, capable of only spouting off spoon fed lines. Prior to that he was gaining momentum and had a very good shot at becoming the "consensus" alternative candidate to Trump.


This primary season has been hilarious and entertaining....and if it comes down to Trump v. Cruz....the Republicans have handed the Democrats the best gift that they ever could have...i.e., giving us the two weakest candidates of the bunch.
 
QuadpolarNutjob said:
when they broker the convention he will, that's how he is, the 21st century version of the bull moose party is inbound.
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if they broker the convention and do it in a way that thjey steal the election from the candidate with the most votes. It's still questionable whether the party wants to commit suicide or nopt.
 
It's called a majority, not a plurality .
 
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