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Captain America said:I took the liberty to highlight the "if's and maybes" for ya.
The estimate allows evrybody to cherry pick parts to validate their position. Only problem, the way it reads, the war lovers are stuck with speculation to pick from yet the war haters are given more facts for ammuntion. A far cry from "you liberals are gonna eat your words when it gets declassified" don't you think? :mrgreen:
Like I said, you just picked a bad horse in this race but what else would a loyal Republican do? No harm done. Loyalty is a good trait.
If you really want a tip on a winning horse, dog out the democrats for not getting behind voter ID. That's a winner there. :smile:
Glad I could be some help! :2wave:
Captain America said:Right on ToT. Go ahead and ride that horse. :roll:
I think we all need to agree that the report, so far as we have seen of it, is just inuendo BS full of what if's and maybes. It's prime for cherry picking sentences for support whatever side of the fence you sit on. And it appears to be basically useless.
But I know it's gotta burn your butt that the "liberal whackos" had no crow to eat after the declassified parts were released as many trumpeted they would. (Certainly a lot less crow than the "rightwing whackos" are having to eat for assuming it would.)
Yes it can be interpreted to mean "if" but not "maybe" they assessed with certainty that if we win in Iraq then it will be a huge blow to the jihadists but if we lose it will further encourage them, which for me atleast is a huge incentive to make sure that Iraq becomes a stable Democracy IE stay until the job is done.Should (that means "maybe or if") jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves to have failed we judge (determine)fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.
Yes it can be interpreted to mean "if" but not "maybe" they assessed with certainty that if we win in Iraq then it will be a huge blow to the jihadists but if we lose it will further encourage them, which for me atleast is a huge incentive to make sure that Iraq becomes a stable Democracy IE stay until the job is done
Trajan Octavian Titus said:Well considering that the NIE talked about killing Zarqawi as a key priority I'd say that things have gotten better, even Talabani says that the car bombings have dropped from 10-14 car bombings a day in Baghdad to now between 1 and 4.
Alex said:That is because the harsher winter months are coming, not because there is a loss of wanting.
Indy said:Why won't they release the whole document? I hate it when they only release the parts that make them look good and then expect us to believe that none of it says anything negative about them. We aren't stupid, either you release it all or you release none. What the president is doing is just as bad as somebody in the admin leaking out the parts that make them look bad for political gain, Bush is doing the same thing but in the reverse direction. Jesus Christ, the president is supposed to be above all of this petty squabling!
Indy said:Why won't they release the whole document? I hate it when they only release the parts that make them look good and then expect us to believe that none of it says anything negative about them. We aren't stupid, either you release it all or you release none. What the president is doing is just as bad as somebody in the admin leaking out the parts that make them look bad for political gain, Bush is doing the same thing but in the reverse direction. Jesus Christ, the president is supposed to be above all of this petty squabling!
Deegan said:I think we should all step back and consider why we are surprised that this war is raging?
It is war, it was indeed our plan to send our guys to these two countries, and to draw them out, and this is exactly what they are doing. Of course it's getting worse, but do we leave everytime a war gets tough? We have done very well thus far, as far as keeping causalities low, in our military forces anyway. The majority of the deaths are of the innocent, and people are seriously suggesting we leave those people to their fate! Talk about creating enemies, this would be a disaster, Iran would sweep right in there, and the religious fanatics would have yet another prime piece of real estate!:shock:
Alex said:All that will happen no matter when we leave. Should we stay there forever?
Trajan Octavian Titus said:Well considering that the NIE talked about killing Zarqawi as a key priority I'd say that things have gotten better, even Talabani says that the car bombings have dropped from 10-14 car bombings a day in Baghdad to now between 1 and 4.
Indy said:Why won't they release the whole document?
Alex said:That is because the harsher winter months are coming, not because there is a loss of wanting.
As War Over Leak Grips Washington, Al Qaeda Quails
By ELI LAKE - Staff Reporter of the Sun
September 27, 2006
WASHINGTON — On a day when much of the capital's attention was focused on leaked excerpts of an intelligence estimate report that suggested the Iraq war was creating more jihadists, the military quietly released an intercepted letter from Al Qaeda complaining that the terrorist organization was losing ground in Iraq.
The letter, found in the headquarters of Al Qaeda's leader in Iraq, Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi, after he was killed on June 7, was sent to Zarqawi by a senior Al Qaeda leader who signs his name simply "Atiyah." He complains that Al Qaeda is weak both in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region and in Iraq.
A former jihadist who fought in Algeria in the 1990s, Atiyah appears from the text to be speaking for Al Qaeda's Shura Council — the group's decision-making panel chaired by Osama bin Laden. In the letter, he sharply criticizes Zarqawi's leadership, saying he alienated key allies necessary for the implementation of jihad in Iraq.
"Know that we, like all the Mujahidin, are still weak," he wrote in the letter dated December 11, 2005. "We are in the stage of weakness and a state of paucity. We have not yet reached a level of stability. We have no alternative but to not squander any element of the foundations of strength, or any helper or supporter."
http://www.nysun.com/article/40461
Trajan Octavian Titus said:where were you people when the NYT's released one line of one paragraph for partisan political reasons right before the election?
Trajan Octavian Titus said:Well considering that the NIE talked about killing Zarqawi as a key priority I'd say that things have gotten better, even Talabani says that the car bombings have dropped from 10-14 car bombings a day in Baghdad to now between 1 and 4.
With respect to the bold part, a Question: Since when?Deegan said:I think we should all step back and consider why we are surprised that this war is raging?
It is war, it was indeed our plan to send our guys to these two countries, and to draw them out, and this is exactly what they are doing. Of course it's getting worse, but do we leave everytime a war gets tough? We have done very well thus far, as far as keeping causalities low, in our military forces anyway. The majority of the deaths are of the innocent, and people are seriously suggesting we leave those people to their fate! Talk about creating enemies, this would be a disaster, Iran would sweep right in there, and the religious fanatics would have yet another prime piece of real estate!:shock:
jujuman13 said:Quote (Negroponte said the analysis found that if the U.S. effort to establish a stable government in Iraq succeeded, jihadists would be weakened and "fewer jihadists will leave Iraq determined to carry on the fight elsewhere.")
IF the US effort to establish a stable Gov. in Iraq succeeded. There is that word again " IF ".
How long has the US been in Iraq, are we any nearer to the establishment of a stable government in that country?
A stable Government, let alone a Democratic Government?
It should be perfectly obvious that post Saddam Hussein, Iraq has succeeded in drawing more enemies of the US into not only those in Iraq, but in other countries around the world.
It would be interesting to know if the US has actually managed to establish a Stable Democratic Government in any Country anywhere in the world since the 1950s.
I, offhand cannot think of any.
The Iraq conflict has become the “cause celebre” for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves to have failed we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.
We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.
If Democratic reform efforts in Muslim majority nations progress over the next five years political participation probably would drive a wedge between intransigent extremists and groups willing to use the political process to achieve their local objectives.
The jihadists greatest vulnerability is that their ultimate political solution-an ultra-conservative interpretation of shari’a- based governance spanning the Muslim world is unpopular with the vast majority of Muslims. Exposing the religious and political straitjacket that is implied by the jihadists’ propaganda would help to divide them from the audience they seek to persuade.
United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa’ida and disrupted it’s operations.
We assess that the global jihadist movement is decentralized, lacks a coherent global strategy, and is becoming more diffuse.
http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/De..._Judgments.pdf
As War Over Leak Grips Washington, Al Qaeda Quails
By ELI LAKE - Staff Reporter of the Sun
September 27, 2006
WASHINGTON — On a day when much of the capital's attention was focused on leaked excerpts of an intelligence estimate report that suggested the Iraq war was creating more jihadists, the military quietly released an intercepted letter from Al Qaeda complaining that the terrorist organization was losing ground in Iraq.
The letter, found in the headquarters of Al Qaeda's leader in Iraq, Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi, after he was killed on June 7, was sent to Zarqawi by a senior Al Qaeda leader who signs his name simply "Atiyah." He complains that Al Qaeda is weak both in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region and in Iraq.
A former jihadist who fought in Algeria in the 1990s, Atiyah appears from the text to be speaking for Al Qaeda's Shura Council — the group's decision-making panel chaired by Osama bin Laden. In the letter, he sharply criticizes Zarqawi's leadership, saying he alienated key allies necessary for the implementation of jihad in Iraq.
"Know that we, like all the Mujahidin, are still weak," he wrote in the letter dated December 11, 2005. "We are in the stage of weakness and a state of paucity. We have not yet reached a level of stability. We have no alternative but to not squander any element of the foundations of strength, or any helper or supporter."
http://www.nysun.com/article/40461
On Capitol Hill, meanwhile, Talabani told a group of six senators that setting a deadline for withdrawal of U.S. troops would be a tragedy for Iraq as it works to build its military and police forces, Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., said in a conference call with reporters.
Pulling out now would "encourage the militias and the enemies of a free and independent and unified Iraq," Lieberman quoted Talabani as saying.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/world/4216141.html
SouthernDemocrat said:And, since the killing of Zarqawi, the murder rate in Iraq due to sectarian violence has doubled. What is your point? I fail to see it. It would seem that the NIE had some hope that killing Zarqawi would prove to be a setback for radical Islam, when in fact, things have only gotten worse in Iraq since his death.
Talabani projected a vastly different account of the security situation. He said it had improved since last year when many areas were in the control of terrorists.
Last year, he said by way of example, there were 10 to 14 car bombings a day in Baghdad and this year one to four.
Most of the fighting is centered in Baghdad, and since most media are in the capital they provide a slanted picture of Iraq's situation, Talabani said.
"The media is only focusing on the negative and exaggerating it," he said.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/world/4216141.html
As War Over Leak Grips Washington, Al Qaeda Quails
By ELI LAKE - Staff Reporter of the Sun
September 27, 2006
WASHINGTON — On a day when much of the capital's attention was focused on leaked excerpts of an intelligence estimate report that suggested the Iraq war was creating more jihadists, the military quietly released an intercepted letter from Al Qaeda complaining that the terrorist organization was losing ground in Iraq.
The letter, found in the headquarters of Al Qaeda's leader in Iraq, Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi, after he was killed on June 7, was sent to Zarqawi by a senior Al Qaeda leader who signs his name simply "Atiyah." He complains that Al Qaeda is weak both in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region and in Iraq.
A former jihadist who fought in Algeria in the 1990s, Atiyah appears from the text to be speaking for Al Qaeda's Shura Council — the group's decision-making panel chaired by Osama bin Laden. In the letter, he sharply criticizes Zarqawi's leadership, saying he alienated key allies necessary for the implementation of jihad in Iraq.
"Know that we, like all the Mujahidin, are still weak," he wrote in the letter dated December 11, 2005. "We are in the stage of weakness and a state of paucity. We have not yet reached a level of stability. We have no alternative but to not squander any element of the foundations of strength, or any helper or supporter."
http://www.nysun.com/article/40461
Trajan Octavian Titus said:Not according to Iraqi president Talabani and AQ in Iraq themselves:
BAGHDAD, Iraq - More than 1,500 people died violently in Baghdad last month - nearly the same number as in July - and not the dramatic drop estimated just last week, when U.S. and Iraqi officials announced that their security crackdown was working.
The Iraqi Health Ministry says its final August tally of violent deaths in Baghdad was 1,536. That is nearly three times the same agency's preliminary estimate last week and shows a nearly undiminished epidemic of killings by insurgents and sectarian death squads.
SouthernDemocrat said:Wow, imagine that, our little stooge running Iraq is trying to paint a rosy picture. Why as far as he is concerned, it will be a chicken in every pot in Iraq. Amazing, that the fighting in a civil war would be centered around the nation's capital......
The problem is that his own health minister, you know the guy that would actually be counting up the death toll every month disagrees with him. As seen in the following AP article:
Trajan Octavian Titus said:A) It's not a civil war as much as you might wish that it was one.
B) He isn't our little stooge he is the dually elected representative Iraq whom the vast majority of Iraq risked both life and limb to go vote for.
That was THE peak of casualties; furthermore, the Iraq bodycount project puts the total KIA (Civilian and Combatant) for the entire Iraq war at between 38,725 - 43,140 to put that into perspective in the battle of Okina alone 18,900 American soldiers were killed, as well as, 100,000 dead Japanese.
SouthernDemocrat said:So you are comparing the war in Iraq against the now 60 year old war against the empire of Japan?
Hell, back in World War I, Britain and France at times lost 100,000 men a month. Just the same, it does not make 40k dead in Iraq look any better.
See I don't think you quite get the difference between my view on this and yours. I don't think we can just up and leave.
However, I, like the majority of Americans, also think that going in was a mistake,
thus, while we cant just up and leave, I am not going to just throw my support behind the guys who got us into this mess in the first place.
I am not happy that Iraq appears to be dissolving into civil war.
I am not happy about the fact that despite all the supposed accomplishments trumped out by the Administration and its apologists, the situation in Iraq appears to be getting worse, not better.
I am not happy about the fact that thousands in Iraq are being killed in sectarian violence every month.
This is not joyous news. I am not happy about it,
I am merely accepting the reality of what has happened and what is currently happening in Iraq.
You cannot hope to fix a problem if you do not even accept the existence of that problem.
Staying the course, is what has resulted in this entire mess.
If someone actually cares more about their country than they do their political party, then they have to reject the people and the ideology that put us into this mess.
We have to say: "You are wrong", "Your ideology is a failure", "We must never forget that you are wrong and that your ideology is a failure because those who share your failed ideology should never be allowed to run this great nation again".
When will this turn out to be so?Trajan Octavian Titus said:Well when it turns out that we are more safe thanks to our actions overseas and that Iraq is the key front in the war on terror I believe it will.
Actually you have gravely misunderstood what you have read.Trajan Octavian Titus said:Director of National Intelligence John D. Negroponte has already said that we are safer than we were before 9-11 and that the NYT's reporting of the classified NIE is complete bullshit.
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