Declassified Key Judgements of the NIE

Trajan Octavian Titus · Sep 26, 2006

Alex said:
That was not the question(s) asked. Nice dodge.

What issue then? I did address it the declassified portions clearly illustrate that Iraq is the central front in the war on terror and a cut and run strategy there would be an unmitigated disaster.

Trajan Octavian Titus · Sep 26, 2006

Alex said:
But ProudAmerican said that Iraq's president said the country is not in trouble. Which is it?

Actually he was quoting from the same article as I was.

ProudAmerican · Sep 26, 2006

Iriemon said:
OK OK I conced and agree with you! Public announcement: Proud American and I both agree we are not fighting terrorists in Iraq.

So what the hell are we doing there if Iraq has nothing to do with fighting terrorists?

lol. nice try.

ill give you an A for effort.

can we not be fighting both terrorists, and guerillas?

surely thats not possible

Alex · Sep 26, 2006

Trajan Octavian Titus said:
Actually the report clearly illustrates that Iraq is THE central front in the war on terror and that a cut and run strategy would be a disaster and that if we do achieve a stable Democracy there it will spell a death nell for the jihadist movement.

Please post evidence of this from the report.

Captain America · Sep 26, 2006

Proud American and I both agree we are not fighting terrorists in Iraq.

Correction. We are not fighting anything but each other. It's our troops that are not fighting terrorists in Iraq. Not us. We are at the mall.

Trajan Octavian Titus · Sep 26, 2006

Alex said:
Please post evidence of this from the report.

Sure thing here's what the NYT's didn't tell you:

The Iraq conflict has become the “cause celebre” for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves to have failed we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.

We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.

If Democratic reform efforts in Muslim majority nations progress over the next five years political participation probably would drive a wedge between intransigent extremists and groups willing to use the political process to achieve their local objectives.

The jihadists greatest vulnerability is that their ultimate political solution-an ultra-conservative interpretation of shari’a- based governance spanning the Muslim world is unpopular with the vast majority of Muslims. Exposing the religious and political straitjacket that is implied by the jihadists’ propaganda would help to divide them from the audience they seek to persuade.

United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa’ida and disrupted it’s operations.

We assess that the global jihadist movement is decentralized, lacks a coherent global strategy, and is becoming more diffuse.

http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/De..._Judgments.pdf

Alex · Sep 26, 2006

Trajan Octavian Titus said:
Sure thing here's what the NYT's didn't tell you:

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Those are conditional statements that are not based on fact, only theory. We cannot know for sure that they will actually happen.

From the same report, some things the report did not based on conditions:

While Iran and Syria are the most active state sponsors of terror, many other countries will be unable to prevent their resources from being exploited by terrorists.

The underlying factors that are fueling the spread of the extremist Muslim movement outweigh its vulnerabilities. These factors are entrenched grievances and a slow pace of reform in home countries, rising anti-U.S. sentiment and the Iraq war.

Groups "of all stripes" will increasingly use the Internet to communicate, train, recruit and obtain support.

Also, just something interesting from the article:

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, a U.S. ally in Washington for a Thursday meeting with Bush, found himself drawn into the political dispute. He was asked in a CNN interview about an assertion in his new book that he opposed the invasion of Iraq because he feared that it would only encourage extremists and leave the world less safe.

"I stand by it, absolutely," Musharraf said. "It has made the world a more dangerous place."

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&u=/ap/20060926/ap_on_go_co/terrorism_intelligence_30

Trajan Octavian Titus · Sep 26, 2006

Alex said:
Those are conditional statements that are not based on fact, only theory. We cannot know for sure that they will actually happen.

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&u=/ap/20060926/ap_on_go_co/terrorism_intelligence_30

No they were assessments not theory just like the entire report was an assessment hence this stament:

"Allthough we cannot measure the spread with precision........."

The report clearly illustrates that the war in Iraq is the central front in the war on terror, a victory there would sound the death toll for the jihadists, and that a cut and run strategy would spell disaster.

Captain America · Sep 26, 2006

If's, maybe's and probably's sound more like speculation to me.

I love ya ToT, but I think you picked a bad horse on this race.

Anyways, you guys have a good night. I'm gonna go soak my elbow.

Let me know how things turn out.

Trajan Octavian Titus · Sep 26, 2006

Captain America said:
If's, maybe's and probably's sound more like speculation to me.

I love ya ToT, but I think you picked a bad horse on this race.

Anyways, you guys have a good night. I'm gonna go soak my elbow.

Let me know how things turn out.

Where do you see maybe's, probably's, or if's in the following two passages taken directly from the report?

The Iraq conflict has become the “cause celebre” for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves to have failed we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.

We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.

jfuh · Sep 26, 2006

Trajan Octavian Titus said:
Ya but they left out the parts about having a percieved victory in Iraq encouraging the jihadists to carry out attacks elsewhere and that if we win the war in Iraq it will spell a death nell for the Jihadists.

The report itself is not even completely declassified. The white house only declassified bits and pieces.
The other parts do not discredit what the major new outlets reported on - being the more worrisome and troubling.

jfuh · Sep 26, 2006

ProudAmerican said:
dont ya just love when they leave out those pesky, insignificant, minor details.

Yes, conditions that are mostly hypothetical with IF's.

Trajan Octavian Titus · Sep 26, 2006

jfuh said:
The report itself is not even completely declassified. The white house only declassified bits and pieces.
The other parts do not discredit what the major new outlets reported on - being the more worrisome and troubling.

It's what the major news outlets left out which is the real story it was obviously a pre-election leak done for political purposes, the key judgements of the report are declassified, and the parts that aren't declassified are classified for a reason IE to protect sources and the methods by which we gather intel.

Trajan Octavian Titus · Sep 26, 2006

jfuh said:
Yes, conditions that are mostly hypothetical with IF's.

Where is there an if in the following two sections?

Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves to have failed we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.

We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.

The report clearly states that the war in Iraq is the central front in the war on terror, that a victory there will sound the death toll for the jihadists, and that a cut and run strategy would be an unmitigated disaster.

For me the report is a clear affirmation of the Presidents stay the course policy and is a total repudiation of the Democrats cut and run strategy.

Alex · Sep 26, 2006

Trajan Octavian Titus said:
Where is there an if in the following two sections?

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The report clearly states that the war in Iraq is the central front in the war on terror, that a victory there will sound the death toll for the jihadists, and that a cut and run strategy would be an unmitigated disaster.

For me the report is a clear affirmation of the Presidents stay the course policy and is a total repudiation of the Democrats cut and run strategy.

You could change the word "should" with "if" and it has the same meaning. They are synonyms.

Definition of "should": If; in case of

http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/should

Trajan Octavian Titus · Sep 26, 2006

Alex said:
You could change the word "should" with "if" and it has the same meaning. They are synonyms.

Definition of "should": If; in case of

http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/should

The whole report is an assessment, and; furthermore, are you suggesting that a better way to obtain a stabile government in Iraq would be to cut and run? And if not are you suggesting that it is impossible to obtain a stabile Democracy in Iraq?

The point really is that the Dems strategy of cut and run is bullshit and their assertion that the war in Iraq is separate from the war on terror is ridiculous.

Again this is a reaffirmation of the President's stay the course policy and a repudiation of the Democrats cut and run strategy.

jfuh · Sep 26, 2006

Trajan Octavian Titus said:
Where is there an if in the following two sections?

Um, "should" is itself the speculative and hypothetical that I was pointing out.
Semantics again tot?

Trajan Octavian Titus said:
The report clearly states that the war in Iraq is the central front in the war on terror, that a victory there will sound the death toll for the jihadists, and that a cut and run strategy would be an unmitigated disaster.

For me the report is a clear affirmation of the Presidents stay the course policy and is a total repudiation of the Democrats cut and run strategy.

STAY THE COURSE TILL WHAT TOT! I'm sick and tired of ppl like yourself who constantly say stay the course stay the course. STaying the course is not a strategy when there is no course to begin with. When will you get it through your thick skull that there is NO COURSE. Which is why soldiers are getting slaughtered meaninglessly.

Alex · Sep 27, 2006

Trajan Octavian Titus said:
The whole report is an assessment, and; furthermore, are you suggesting that a better way to obtain a stabile government in Iraq would be to cut and run? And if not are you suggesting that it is impossible to obtain a stabile Democracy in Iraq?

The point really is that the Dems strategy of cut and run is bullshit and their assertion that the war in Iraq is separate from the war on terror is ridiculous.

Again this is a reaffirmation of the President's stay the course policy and a repudiation of the Democrats cut and run strategy.

Why do I bother?

Alex · Sep 27, 2006

jfuh said:
Um, "should" is itself the speculative and hypothetical that I was pointing out.
Semantics again tot?

STAY THE COURSE TILL WHAT TOT! I'm sick and tired of ppl like yourself who constantly say stay the course stay the course. STaying the course is not a strategy when there is no course to begin with. When will you get it through your thick skull that there is NO COURSE. Which is why soldiers are getting slaughtered meaninglessly.

Conservatives do not care about the troops, only their own selfish agendas.

jfuh · Sep 27, 2006

Alex said:
Conservatives do not care about the troops, only their own selfish agendas.

I must detest. Conservatives do - See Goldman
Also

conservatism
One entry found for conservatism.
Main Entry: con·ser·va·tism
Pronunciation: k&n-'s&r-v&-"ti-z&m
Function: noun
1 capitalized a : the principles and policies of a Conservative party b : the Conservative party
2 a : disposition in politics to preserve what is established b : a political philosophy based on tradition and social stability, stressing established institutions, and preferring gradual development to abrupt change
3 : the tendency to prefer an existing or traditional situation to change

These guys here such as tot? They want to change established tradition and policies, create social unrest, demolishing established institutions and want abrupt change.
They are not conservatives. Saying they are conservatives does not make them one. THey are the complete opposite of a conservative as they conserve nothing.

Captain America · Sep 27, 2006

Trajan Octavian Titus said:
Where do you see maybe's, probably's, or if's in the following two passages taken directly from the report?

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I took the liberty to highlight the "if's and maybes" for ya.

The Iraq conflict has become the “cause celebre” for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. This was stated as fact.

Should (that means "maybe or if") jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves to have failed we judge (determine)fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.

We assess (conclude )that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere. (This was stated as fact too.)

The estimate allows evrybody to cherry pick parts to validate their position. Only problem, the way it reads, the war lovers are stuck with speculation to pick from yet the war haters are given more facts for ammuntion. A far cry from "you liberals are gonna eat your words when it gets declassified" don't you think? :mrgreen:

Like I said, you just picked a bad horse in this race but what else would a loyal Republican do? No harm done. Loyalty is a good trait.

If you really want a tip on a winning horse, dog out the democrats for not getting behind voter ID. That's a winner there. :smile:

Glad I could be some help! :2wave:

ALiberalModerate · Sep 27, 2006

Captain America said:
I took the liberty to highlight the "if's and maybes" for ya.

Like I said, you just picked a bad horse in this race but what else would a loyal Republican do?

If you really want a tip on a winning horse, dog out the democrats for not getting behind voter ID. That's a winner there. :smile:

Glad I could be some help! :2wave:

All of that, and this report was written last April, long before Iraq went to total ****. Just the same, all you got to do is stamp an elephant on a turd, and TOT will spend at least two days trying to polish it.

oldreliable67 · Sep 27, 2006

Y'all can go on and on about "if" this and "maybe" that in this useless report all day long, but it seems Glenn Reynolds has it right:

While we should fire the leakers on general principles, we should probably also fire whoever wrote this -- for producing a meaningless document full of empty bureaucratic twaddle. If the jihadists win, they'll have more prestige! And they will probably use the internets! Do tell. Jesus Christ, if this is the quality of intelligence we're getting, no wonder we haven't won yet.

The only useful thing about this report is the fodder it provides for all those partisans of all persuasions seeking to differentiate between shades of grey.

Captain America · Sep 27, 2006

oldreliable67 said:
Y'all can go on and on about "if" this and "maybe" that in this useless report all day long, but it seems Glenn Reynolds has it right:

The only useful thing about this report is the fodder it provides for all those partisans of all persuasions seeking to differentiate between shades of grey.

That about sez it all.

Trajan Octavian Titus · Sep 27, 2006

SouthernDemocrat said:
All of that, and this report was written last April, long before Iraq went to total ****. Just the same, all you got to do is stamp an elephant on a turd, and TOT will spend at least two days trying to polish it.

Well considering that the NIE talked about killing Zarqawi as a key priority I'd say that things have gotten better, even Talabani says that the car bombings have dropped from 10-14 car bombings a day in Baghdad to now between 1 and 4.

Declassified Key Judgements of the NIE

Trajan Octavian Titus

Trajan Octavian Titus

ProudAmerican

Alex

Captain America

Jedi Master

Trajan Octavian Titus

Alex

Trajan Octavian Titus

Captain America

Jedi Master

Trajan Octavian Titus

jfuh

jfuh

Trajan Octavian Titus

Trajan Octavian Titus

Alex

Trajan Octavian Titus

jfuh

Alex

Alex

jfuh

Captain America

Jedi Master

ALiberalModerate

Pragmatist

oldreliable67

Captain America

Jedi Master

Trajan Octavian Titus

Declassified Key Judgements of the NIE

Jedi Master

Jedi Master

Jedi Master

Pragmatist

Jedi Master

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Privacy & Transparency