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December home sales drop 4.6%, as supply hits record low

Chomsky said:
www.cnbc.com

December home sales drop 4.6%, as supply hits record low

Home sales were weaker than expected in December as mortgage rates rise.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

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Don't be deceived by the drop in unit sales. It's because demand has been so high, that there's little inventory left!

And look at those numbers! 15.8% appreciation in one year? $358K national average? Wow!

My heart really goes out to those recent graduates and others just entering the job market. Most, unless getting some parental help, really have a task ahead of them to attain the 'American Dream'. That was my first thought as I saw the headline, so much so I was moved to post this OP.

Well anyway, it's good news for the contractors, builders, and their employees - I suppose!
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I'm not sure that this is good news. Housing costs continue to soar with no end in sight. This creates even more housing insecurity.
 
dobieg said:
Be patient. Save up.

Your time is coming. Just don't be one of those idiots who in a downturn keeps waiting to buy because they want to catch the very bottom.
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Your well-meaning advice is decades out-of-date.
 
EMNofSeattle said:
No, they don’t need those either. The high scale immigrant is a way to reduce the wages of American citizens who study those fields.
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Yes there have been some high profile cases where companies have done this but there is a very real shortage in some of the higher technical engineering fields and getting the world's brightest gives our country the competive edge it needs.
 
Metric Mouse said:
No one can buy a house because everybody's buying a house!

I'm in the market for new digs, and it's indeed tough. And expensive.
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When I got my house last year, it took me 10 months and 11 offers before I got one. Strangely for me, I actually got mine under market due to a paperwork error at the realty office.

I probably could have gotten one faster, but I wasn't willing to do crazy overbids.
 
dobieg said:
Not sure why you're picking a fight in this thread when this is not that type of thread.
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I'm not. I'm simply saying that your views are outdated.

dobieg said:
If you have a differing opinion, it would be great if you shared it.
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If there is a simple solution to this that involves just the market forces, I am all ears.
 
Glad to see that housing construction is increasing so much. But I would question how much it's increasing in the most expensive markets (e.g. SF).

California just passed a law last year to upzone most of the state, so hopefully that will help. But Bay Area NIMBYs are fighting it every step of the way.
 
dobieg said:
Be patient. Save up.

Your time is coming. Just don't be one of those idiots who in a downturn keeps waiting to buy because they want to catch the very bottom.
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Good advice. I'm renting right now, but definitely saving up and will look at buying a house as soon as it is a good time for me.
 
Phys251 said:
I'm not. I'm simply saying that your views are outdated.



If there is a simple solution to this that involves just the market forces, I am all ears.
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Yes, banning all immigration for 10 years.
 
Chomsky said:
Nice! That all means jobs!

Thank you for this, Khayembii Communique. Much appreciated, and it's a great contribution to the thread!
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It does indeed. Construction has seen some nice gains over the past year or so. It's still not at pre-pandemic levels, but only 88,000 shy of that.
 
Metric Mouse said:
No one can buy a house because everybody's buying a house!

I'm in the market for new digs, and it's indeed tough. And expensive.
Click to expand...
Yep. My sister recently purchased and it was a much tougher process than I ever went through. The competitive aspect of it was pretty fascinating; in that people have been paying well over asking and forgoing inspections etc.
 
dobieg said:
Yes there have been some high profile cases where companies have done this but there is a very real shortage in some of the higher technical engineering fields and getting the world's brightest gives our country the competive edge it needs.
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We don’t need any skilled immigrants. We have the largest network of universities in the world. You only need skilled immigrants if you’re a country like Bolivia or Chad which don’t have enough universities that can train your skilled workers
 
Chomsky said:
www.cnbc.com

December home sales drop 4.6%, as supply hits record low

Home sales were weaker than expected in December as mortgage rates rise.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

--

Don't be deceived by the drop in unit sales. It's because demand has been so high, that there's little inventory left!

And look at those numbers! 15.8% appreciation in one year? $358K national average? Wow!

My heart really goes out to those recent graduates and others just entering the job market. Most, unless getting some parental help, really have a task ahead of them to attain the 'American Dream'. That was my first thought as I saw the headline, so much so I was moved to post this OP.

Well anyway, it's good news for the contractors, builders, and their employees - I suppose!
Click to expand...
Higher prices is supposed to cause higher inventory but, for some reason, it's not. I don't know why.
 
I can't believe our luck. We bought a house exactly before the housing market exploded. If we didn't buy when we did we would have been completely screwed.

It's amazing to see our home increase by over 15% since then, but realistically speaking, what is the practical value of that information? And the answer is, not a whole lot.
 
EMNofSeattle said:
Well you’re the one lamenting new homebuyers not being able to afford houses because there’s not enough.
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Yes, it's true, I am lamenting our kids having to struggle to afford their first property.

EMNofSeattle said:
So how is it that adding a million new competitors a year will help them?
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Straight-up, new immigrants just-in from across the border are not getting mortgages & buying 358K houses. Do you really believe that?

However, I'd bet my bottom dollar some of them are relieving the labor shortage in building the houses to ease the shortage.
 
Deuce said:
The unfortunate reality is that "saving up" is vastly more difficult for a young person today than it was for older generations. Older people haaaaaate to acknowledge this. "I had it easier than they did" is admitting their abject failure as a generation, so they'll do anything to pretend its not true.
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While the graph doesn't contain the obvious topic of conversation, older generations do need to internalize what's going on here. While mortgage rates are about as low as they've ever been, the cost and availability of homes as well as student debt load makes taking advantage of those amazing interest rates pretty much a moot point.

1640256686152-png.67365673
 
dobieg said:
Those rising rates which have added almost a point to the average mortgage in just the past month are going to have a say in this overpriced market. With 3-4 Fed rate hikes coming ths year, should be interesting to see what happens to pricing.
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Great point.

I suspect that will add to my 'lament for the kids', as it will make mortgages more expensive!

But I will also say this:

"Looking at the chart posted by Khayembii Communique in Post #2, the last similar recent high in 2009 was not lost on me!"
 
Chomsky said:
Yes, it's true, I am lamenting our kids having to struggle to afford their first property.
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And the 150 million additional people we have directly because of the 1965 immigration act is a reason.
Chomsky said:
Straight-up, new immigrants just-in from across the border are not getting mortgages & buying 358K houses. Do you really believe that?
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They have to live somewhere. If there’s increased rental demand then that has downstream effects from institutional investors buying houses to rent, to people who were previously ok living at an apartment moving out of one and buying a house, etc.

Chomsky said:
However, I'd bet my bottom dollar some of them are relieving the labor shortage in building the houses to ease the shortage.
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The labor shortage is a good thing, it leads to increased workers wages. We have plenty of wealthy immigrants too, George Soros isn’t out building construction projects but he’s buying elected officials and sitting in a lot of real estate.
 
I feel bad for these buyers who are paying ridiculous markups for marginal homes in less than desirable neighborhoods. When the market turns, they're going to get crushed.


I've been looking at some waterfront homes on the Chesapeake Bay. People are paying absurd amounts of money for average homes in bad flood zones(Ae 3 - 8). When the market drops, those places might be worth half what they paid. Buyers are just so irrational during these booms and panic buy rather than put any thought into what happens when the music stops.
 
dobieg said:
I feel bad for these buyers who are paying ridiculous markups for marginal homes in less than desirable neighborhoods. When the market turns, they're going to get crushed.


I've been looking at some waterfront homes on the Chesapeake Bay. People are paying absurd amounts of money for average homes in bad flood zones(Ae 3 - 8). When the market drops, those places might be worth half what they paid. Buyers are just so irrational during these booms and panic buy rather than put any thought into what happens when the music stops.
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I thought I was buying at a bad time, a high point in the market. But I needed to stop renting, I really wanted more space, and my income had rapidly ballooned to make a basic home not an issue.

Turns out there's way more room in this bubble.
 
reflechissez said:
Higher prices is supposed to cause higher inventory but, for some reason, it's not. I don't know why.
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Buyers know they will have to buy something and this isn't a great market to sell without already having that other place tied up.
 
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