Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19

[TU Curmudgeon]

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GENERAL ADVICE FOR DEALING WITH COVID-19

The best advice anyone can give you is



TAKE IT!

AND

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......|…...PLEASE ........| ...
.........| ..DON'T FEED ...| ......
…......| .THE TROLLS ...| .......
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.............|__|__| .............
..............|| ||..............
.............ooO Ooo.............
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From United Press

Poll: Half in U.S. still not wearing masks when out in public

(and you wonder why the numbers are still going up)​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

GENERAL NOTES



If you have any dispute/discussion regarding the statistics, please feel free to link back to the latest post in the NEW THREAD that you start so that we can debate what your dispute/discussion is.

DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z the day of posting) except where noted.​

NOTE 1 –

“Mortality Rate (All)” appears to bear a one to one correlation to “[Mortality Rate (Closed)] x [Clearance Rate]”. That means that it is likely that the _real_ mortality rate is the “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and only the differing lengths of time from diagnosis to death is obscuring that.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Asian” population percentages.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Racial” population percentages.​

NOTE 3 –

The Mortality Index chart has been moved to “Block 5” and is being replaced by a chart showing the “7 Day Average New US Cases” and “10 Day Average of 7 Day Averages”. The second measure produces a “cleaner” curve, but is somewhat “sluggish”.​

SPECIAL EXPLANATORY NOTE 4 FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS (who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)

1. All charts employ a 30 day forward projection. (Thanks to “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.)
   
2. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   
3. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   
4. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   
5. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as of the generation of the chart do not change.
   
6. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   
7. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt or cherry-picking data, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

NOTE 5 – SPECIAL NOTES REGARDING TABLES AND GRAPHS CONCERNING U.S. STATES

1. There are a whole lot of posts comparing "State X" against "States A, B, and C" without any acknowledgement that there are actually 50 states. (This is known as "cherry picking data".)
   
2. The determination of which states are "Red" and which states are "Blue" is made by Vaughn's Summaries and is based on the 2016 election results.
   
3. The totals are lower than the totals on Worldometer because US colonial possessions are excluded and only the actual US states are considered.
   
4. Since ALL of the states (and even the District of Columbia) about the only "cherry picking" you can accuse me of doing is leaving out the American colonies of American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands.

NOTE 6 –

How does the number of tests related to the "Mortality Rate"? It doesn't, and I'm no longer going to be posting that table routinely.​

NOTE 7 –

How does the NATIONAL “Population Density” relate to either the “Infection Rate” or the "Mortality Rate"? It doesn't, (with respect to specified areas inside countries it does, but I simply don’t have the facilities to deal with THAT much nitpicking) and I'm no longer going to be posting that table routinely.​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

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Compare how the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” and an aggregated “World” are doing vis-à-vis each other.

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Projections based on the trends current as of the day of posting showing how COVID-19 is likely to progress, its likely total in its first year in the US, and comparing its effect with that of the “-Spanish- 1918 Flu”. COVID-19 is now killing Americans at almost 1.5 times the daily rate that the “1918 Flu” did.

​

COVID-19 is officially the THIRD largest cause of death in the US. However, looked at on a 265 day basis, and considering that many people who would have otherwise died of Heart Disease will have died early from COVID-19, it is highly likely that COVID-19 is actually the #1 cause of death in the United States of America. At the present rate, the estimated “Low 365 Day” death count from COVID-19 exceeds the official annual rate for Cancer (it's 111.90% that of Cancer) and is 103.75% that for Heart Disease. For the estimated “High 365 Day” death count, it is 123.67% that of Cancer and 114.68% that of Heart Disease.

COVID-19 is now killing Americans at 1.524 times the daily rate that “The 1918 Flu” killed them.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 500,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 16 FEB 21.

***********************************************​

This table shows how well the various areas are doing with respect to both the US and the World after adjustments for various factors. To see how well likely a random person in the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” or an aggregated “World” is to die from COVID-19 (which is a combination of the answers to the questions “How likely am I to catch COVID-19?” and “If I do catch COVID-19, then how likely am I to die from it?”) as well as how well the areas are doing in respect of their (per capita) relative abilities to pay for fighting COVID-19 and with respect to the (per capita) amount that they previously spent on supporting their healthcare systems you will have to go to the Block 6 and look at the final table.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 2 - DATA

(WITH ARROWS [for the graduates of the BS (Statistics) program at The University of Numerology])

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QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting) -

See “General Notes” for caveats as to accuracy of data and “Mortality Rate (Closed)” use.

20/11/10 – World (1,271,398/51,359,570) 3.40% [↭] / USA (244,449/10,422,026) 3.60% [⇓] / Canada (10,564/268,735) 4.61% [⇓]

20/11/15 – World (1,320,932/54,506,572) 3.36% [⇓] / USA (251,285/11,235,666) 3.52% [⇓] / Canada (10,891/291,931) 4.47% [⇓]

20/11/20 – World (1,368,622/57,394,073) 3.32% [↭] / USA (258,363/12,075,243) 3.44% [⇓] / Canada (11,265/315,754) 4.27% [⇓]

20/11/25 – World (1,417,896/60,242,064) 3.29% [↭] / USA (265,986/12,958,805) 3.36% [⇓] / Canada (11,618/342,444) 4.08% [⇓]

20/11/30 – World (1,467,511/63,199,555) 3.25% [⇓] / USA (273,126/13,753,146) 3.26% [⇓] / Canada (12,032/307,278) 3.93% [⇓]

20/12/05 – World (1,527,740/66,408,088) 3.22% [↭] / USA (285,786/14,784,826) 3.19% [⇓] / Canada (12,496/402,569) 3.76% [⇓]

20/12/10 – World (1,579,100/69,418,464) 3.17% [⇓] / USA (296,836/15,829,017) 3.11% [⇓] / Canada (12,983/435,330) 3.58% [⇓]

20/12/15 – World (1,631,067/73,337,911) 3.07% [⇓] / USA (308,091/16,943,897) 3.02% [⇓] / Canada (13,553/468,862) 3.45% [⇓]

20/12/20 – World (1,694,129/76,728,477) 3.05% [⇓] / USA (323,404/18,078,925) 2.98% [⇓] / Canada (14,154/501,594) 3.33% [⇓]

20/12/25 – World (1,751,877/79,864,734) 3.02% [↭] / USA (337,075/19,113,266) 2.92% [↭] / Canada (14,719/535,212) 3.21% [⇓]

20/12/30 – World (1,800,115/82,477,841) 2.99% [↭] / USA (346,604/19,979,759) 2.84% [⇓] / Canada (15,378/565,506) 3.12% [⇓]

21/01/05 – World (1,863,908/86,250,039) 2.96% [⇓] / USA (362,130/21,354,933) 2.76% [⇓] / Canada (16,074/611,424) 3.00% [⇓]

20/01/10 – World (1,937,942/90,267,680) 2.91% [↭] / USA (381,557/22,714,728) 2.77% [↭] / Canada (16,833/652,473) 2.96% [⇓]

21/01/14 – World (1,989,349/92,888,380) 2.91% [↭] / USA (393,928/23,616,345) 2.74% [⇓] / Canada (17,383/681,328) 2.89% [↭]

21/01/15 – World (2,005,523/93,668,581) 2.91% [↭] / USA (398,185/23,862,138) 2.74% [↭] / Canada (17,538/688,891) 2.87% [⇓]

21/01/16 – World (2,020,385/94,433,200) 2.91% [↭] / USA (401,868/27,222,736) 2.75% [⇑] / Canada (17,729/695,707) 2.86% [⇓]

21/01/17 – World (2,034,472/95,162,233) 2.91% [↭] / USA (405,418/24,322,125) 2.75% [↭] / Canada (17,934/705,605) 2.85% [⇓]

21/01/18 – World (2,039,601/95,479,062) 2.91% [↭] / USA (407,212/24,483,583) 2.74% [⇓] / Canada (18,014/708,619) 2.84% [⇓]

21/01/19 – World (2,051,808/96,100,446) 2.90% [⇓] / USA (408,623/24,628,198) 2.73% [⇓] / Canada (18,120/715,072) 2.83% [⇓]

21/01/20 – World (2,069,135/96,759,303) 2.89% [⇓] / USA (411,594/24,814,003) 2.71% [⇓] / Canada (18,266/719,751) 2.82% [⇓]

20/01/21 – World (2,086,148/97,421,975) 2.89% [↭] / USA (415,909/25,000,676) 2.70% [⇓] / Canada (18,462/725,495) 2.81% [⇓]

21/01/22 – World (2,103,101/98,213,310) 2.89% [↭] / USA (420,318/25,198,489) 2.71% [⇑] / Canada (18,622/731,450) 2.80% [⇓]

21/01/23 – World (2,118,975/98,852,622) 2.90% [⇑] / USA (424,275/25,397,214) 2.71% [↭] / Canada (18,828/737,407) 2.80% [↭]

21/01/24 – World (2,132,033/99,405,023) 2.90% [↭] / USA (427,635/25,566,789) 2.71% [↭] / Canada (18,974/742,531) 2.80% [↭]



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The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 3,174 (YESTERDAY it was 3,201).

The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is back below 3,400 for the second day in a row.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases has been fluttering – mostly due to the lack of progress on the part of the “Red States”.

​

The number of deaths per day data has returned to acting “normally”. However the graph seems to indicate that the increase has begun to crest.

​

How are the major nations coping? This chart, from Our World in Data

​

illustrates the relative growth rates of COVID-19 in those areas.

Europe IS in the midst of "The Second Wave" of COVID-19. Is the US in a "(First?) Second (Third?) Wave"? See the next block and draw your own conclusions.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S “WAVE (TSUNAMI [?])” CHARTS

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Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)

​

The rolling "7 Day Average" death rate is now higher than it has been since the beginning of May (shortly after the official announcement that COVID-19 would "vanish in a couple of weeks”).

​

The rolling "10 Day Average of the 7 Day Averages" (which gives a much "cleaner" charting) death rate is now higher than it has been since the beginning of May (shortly after the official announcement that COVID-19 would "vanish in a couple of weeks").

​

The daily average of new cases for the past 30 days is 215,117, for the past 10 days it is 195,044, and for the past five days it is 187,718. The graph indicates that there is a possibility that this wave has crested in the US.

Is this the “Second Wave” or the "Third Wave"? Will there be another? Will the US simply continue its (essentially) straight line path without leveling until the pandemic crests and crashes? Draw your own conclusions from the charts and the facts NOT from the latest version of the currently operative, “officially” sanctioned, "Team Reactionary" approved, CT-News issued, truth-of-the-day as delivered by the -ONAN- (oops, sorry, that's) OANN people.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 4A – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

IN TABLES

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HOW IS YOUR STATE DOING? ​

All base data is from Worldometer as of ~1400 on the date of posting.

NOTE – 1

The Oregon, Kansas, Delaware, and Alaska data for recovered cases are out of date and there is no newer data available. The “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and “Recovered Rate” are unreliable for those states.​

NOTE – 2

The percentage [top chart at the bottom of the tables] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.​

First, the table sorted by "Blue States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]") and "Red States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]")

​

And then sorted by “Cases per Million”

​

And then sorted by “Deaths per Million”

​

Those are OK if you want to look up specific numbers, but, because they are “single data point” tables, they don’t actually show you what is happening over time. For that, see the next block.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 4B – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

IN CHARTS

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HOW ARE THE "RED" AND "BLUE" STATES DOING?​

As you can see from the "Summary" table, BOTH the "Red States" and the "Blue States" have now moved into the blue "±5% of Average" zone on the "Deaths per Million" column. The "Red States" have moved into that zone from the green "LESS that 95% of Average" zone (for those who still believe that their "expert prediction of 10,300 ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM deaths is accurate, that means that their performance is getting worse)and the "Blue States" have moved into that zone from the red "MORE than 105% of Average" zone (for those who still believe that their "expert prediction of 10,300 ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM deaths is accurate, that means that their performance is getting better).

The “Red States” relative percentage of deaths has now moved from the (more than 5% lower than the National Average) “Green Zone” into the (±5% of National Average) “Blue Zone.

The "Blue States" relative percentage of deaths has now moved from the (more than 5% higher than the National Average) “Green Zone” into the (±5% of National Average) “Blue Zone.

​

The situation with respect to “Cases per Million” continues NOT to be “happy making”. In fact, NO STATE has a “Cases per Million” rate that is lower than the world average.

The "Red States" increase in "Cases per Million" continues at a faster pace than that of the "Blue States".

​

As far as “Deaths per Million” goes, the “Blue States” and the “Red States” are still battling it out to see which can win the "I can kill more of my people than you can" title (the “Red States” continue to draw ahead of the “Blue States” and now have a significant lead).

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 5 – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

Mortality Measurements

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The “Mortality Index” continues to climb. That indicates that the number of deaths is increasing faster than the number of tests so you cannot blame the increase in deaths on the increase in tests.

​

In table format, here is how the individual states are doing

​

And to give an overview of how the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing here is that data reduces to a chart.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 6 – THE “TOP 20”s

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Of the 20 countries with the highest number of TOTAL cases, the US, with around 10.17% of the total population of the group, has around 32.31% of the total cases for the group. This is roughly 3.18 times its proportional share.

​

Of the 20 countries with the highest number of currently ACTIVE cases, the US, with around 10.79% of the total population of the group, has around 49.68% of the total cases for the group. This is roughly 4.60 times its proportional share.

​

Extracted from Worldometer, here is the list of the 20 countries with the highest number of COVID-19 “Deaths per Million”

​

That table shows that those people who are panic mongering and claiming that the US has the world’s highest COVID-19 death rate either simply don’t know what they are talking about or are deliberately attempting to spread false information.

The US remains as #7 on the list of the Top 20 countries for "Cases per Million" and has a long way to go before its number (76,986 on 24 JAN 21) surpasses Luxembourg's (78,490 on 24 JAN 21) to move into the #6 slot.

As you can plainly see, <SARC> from that table, all of the countries with higher “Deaths per Million” counts than the US has have those so-called “Universal Healthcare Insurance” programs and that is definitive proof that those so-called “Universal Healthcare Insurance” programs are ineffective and result in the deaths of millions because of their reliance on Death Panels to ration healthcare (unlike the US where you get all the healthcare that you can pay for out of your own pocket [at rates determined by totally unbiased actuaries and CFOs]) </SARC>.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 7 – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

Mortality Measurements

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The fact that the total number of US deaths continues to rise isn’t going to surprise anyone other than Dr. Mashmont who jusknowz that the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM number of COVID-19 deaths peaked out at 10,300 and that there hasn’t been a single COVID-19 death in the US since April 4, 2020.

The "Mashmont Theory" appears to be that the world's medical community and every other government in the world are all lying about the impact of COVID-19 on the people of the world AND that they are doing so specifically to make Mr. Trump (and **D*O*C*T*O*R** Mashmont [not necessarily in that order]) look bad.

​

In the past 24 hours, the US (with approximately 4.26% of the world’s population) has had approximately 25.72% of the world’s COVID-19 cases. That is a disparity of 6.04 :: 1 (which is a “Percentage Grade” of 16.55%). It also has 20.06% of the world’s COVID-19 deaths, which is a disparity of 4.71 :: 1 (which is a “Percentage Grade” of 21.22%).

Each of those “Percentage Grades” is an “F”

A more easily grasped illustration (with an expanded colour scale so that even the innumerate followers of **D*O*C*T*O*R** Mashmont can follow it) of what the "Daily Death Rate" is doing in the US is

​

Comparing “chance of death” (a combination of “chance of infection” and “mortality rate) to “ability to pay” (PPP GDP per capita) and “previous support for healthcare system” (per capita spending on health care), the data is indicative that the US could have done considerably better than it actually did.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 8 – VACCINATIONS

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The US, at #2, continues (at more than two and one half the Italian [#3] rate) to do well with respect to per capita vaccination rates. Canada continues to lag due to the fact that the American company (Pfizer) that contracted to deliver vaccines to Canada has said that it will not do so. The disparity will likely get much greater as soon as the Canadian vaccine supply has been exhausted.

Pfizer has not indicated when, if ever, it will resume deliveries of vaccine to Canada - despite its contractual obligations to do so.

​

The US (the only country that Pfizer has not reduced deliveries to) is still #1 with respect to total vaccinations.

​

The US (double the French (#3) and almost triple the Canadian (#4) rates) is doing well in daily vaccinations per capita and has a firm grip on the #2 slot.

This disparity is likely to increase due to the fact that the American company (Pfizer) that had contracted to sell one of the vaccines to Canada has announced that it will not be delivering any vaccine to Canada and has reduced its deliveries to France by about 50%. Pfizer's deliveries to the US are not being reduced.

​

The number of US vaccinations for the previous 24 hours as reported on 23 JAN 21 was 1.06 million. The previous high number was 975,540 which was reported on 22 JAN 21. Assuming that the supply of vaccine continues, the US appears to be well on its way to meeting (or beating) the 1,000,000 per day vaccination rate initially announced by the new administration.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************​

Compare how the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” and an aggregated “World” are doing vis-à-vis each other.

***********************************************​

Projections based on the trends current as of the day of posting showing how COVID-19 is likely to progress, its likely total in its first year in the US, and comparing its effect with that of the “-Spanish- 1918 Flu”. COVID-19 is now killing Americans at almost 1.5 times the daily rate that the “1918 Flu” did.

​

COVID-19 is officially the THIRD largest cause of death in the US. However, looked at on a 265 day basis, and considering that many people who would have otherwise died of Heart Disease will have died early from COVID-19, it is highly likely that COVID-19 is actually the #1 cause of death in the United States of America. At the present rate, the estimated “Low 365 Day” death count from COVID-19 exceeds the official annual rate for Cancer (it's 112.40% that of Cancer) and is 104.22% that for Heart Disease. For the estimated “High 365 Day” death count, it is 124.23% that of Cancer and 115.19% that of Heart Disease.

COVID-19 is now killing Americans at 1.526 times the daily rate that “The 1918 Flu” killed them.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 500,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 16 FEB 21.

***********************************************​

This table shows how well the various areas are doing with respect to both the US and the World after adjustments for various factors. To see how well likely a random person in the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” or an aggregated “World” is to die from COVID-19 (which is a combination of the answers to the questions “How likely am I to catch COVID-19?” and “If I do catch COVID-19, then how likely am I to die from it?”) as well as how well the areas are doing in respect of their (per capita) relative abilities to pay for fighting COVID-19 and with respect to the (per capita) amount that they previously spent on supporting their healthcare systems you will have to go to the Block 6 and look at the final table.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 2 - DATA

(WITH ARROWS [for the graduates of the BS (Statistics) program at The University of Numerology])

***********************************************

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting) -

See “General Notes” for caveats as to accuracy of data and “Mortality Rate (Closed)” use.

20/11/10 – World (1,271,398/51,359,570) 3.40% [↭] / USA (244,449/10,422,026) 3.60% [⇓] / Canada (10,564/268,735) 4.61% [⇓]

20/11/15 – World (1,320,932/54,506,572) 3.36% [⇓] / USA (251,285/11,235,666) 3.52% [⇓] / Canada (10,891/291,931) 4.47% [⇓]

20/11/20 – World (1,368,622/57,394,073) 3.32% [↭] / USA (258,363/12,075,243) 3.44% [⇓] / Canada (11,265/315,754) 4.27% [⇓]

20/11/25 – World (1,417,896/60,242,064) 3.29% [↭] / USA (265,986/12,958,805) 3.36% [⇓] / Canada (11,618/342,444) 4.08% [⇓]

20/11/30 – World (1,467,511/63,199,555) 3.25% [⇓] / USA (273,126/13,753,146) 3.26% [⇓] / Canada (12,032/307,278) 3.93% [⇓]

20/12/05 – World (1,527,740/66,408,088) 3.22% [↭] / USA (285,786/14,784,826) 3.19% [⇓] / Canada (12,496/402,569) 3.76% [⇓]

20/12/10 – World (1,579,100/69,418,464) 3.17% [⇓] / USA (296,836/15,829,017) 3.11% [⇓] / Canada (12,983/435,330) 3.58% [⇓]

20/12/15 – World (1,631,067/73,337,911) 3.07% [⇓] / USA (308,091/16,943,897) 3.02% [⇓] / Canada (13,553/468,862) 3.45% [⇓]

20/12/20 – World (1,694,129/76,728,477) 3.05% [⇓] / USA (323,404/18,078,925) 2.98% [⇓] / Canada (14,154/501,594) 3.33% [⇓]

20/12/25 – World (1,751,877/79,864,734) 3.02% [↭] / USA (337,075/19,113,266) 2.92% [↭] / Canada (14,719/535,212) 3.21% [⇓]

20/12/30 – World (1,800,115/82,477,841) 2.99% [↭] / USA (346,604/19,979,759) 2.84% [⇓] / Canada (15,378/565,506) 3.12% [⇓]

21/01/05 – World (1,863,908/86,250,039) 2.96% [⇓] / USA (362,130/21,354,933) 2.76% [⇓] / Canada (16,074/611,424) 3.00% [⇓]

20/01/10 – World (1,937,942/90,267,680) 2.91% [↭] / USA (381,557/22,714,728) 2.77% [↭] / Canada (16,833/652,473) 2.96% [⇓]

21/01/15 – World (2,005,523/93,668,581) 2.91% [↭] / USA (398,185/23,862,138) 2.74% [↭] / Canada (17,538/688,891) 2.87% [⇓]

21/01/16 – World (2,020,385/94,433,200) 2.91% [↭] / USA (401,868/27,222,736) 2.75% [⇑] / Canada (17,729/695,707) 2.86% [⇓]

21/01/17 – World (2,034,472/95,162,233) 2.91% [↭] / USA (405,418/24,322,125) 2.75% [↭] / Canada (17,934/705,605) 2.85% [⇓]

21/01/18 – World (2,039,601/95,479,062) 2.91% [↭] / USA (407,212/24,483,583) 2.74% [⇓] / Canada (18,014/708,619) 2.84% [⇓]

21/01/19 – World (2,051,808/96,100,446) 2.90% [⇓] / USA (408,623/24,628,198) 2.73% [⇓] / Canada (18,120/715,072) 2.83% [⇓]

21/01/20 – World (2,069,135/96,759,303) 2.89% [⇓] / USA (411,594/24,814,003) 2.71% [⇓] / Canada (18,266/719,751) 2.82% [⇓]

20/01/21 – World (2,086,148/97,421,975) 2.89% [↭] / USA (415,909/25,000,676) 2.70% [⇓] / Canada (18,462/725,495) 2.81% [⇓]

21/01/22 – World (2,103,101/98,213,310) 2.89% [↭] / USA (420,318/25,198,489) 2.71% [⇑] / Canada (18,622/731,450) 2.80% [⇓]

21/01/23 – World (2,118,975/98,852,622) 2.90% [⇑] / USA (424,275/25,397,214) 2.71% [↭] / Canada (18,828/737,407) 2.80% [↭]

21/01/24 – World (2,132,033/99,405,023) 2.90% [↭] / USA (427,635/25,566,789) 2.71% [↭] / Canada (18,974/742,531) 2.80% [↭]

21/01/25 – World (2,140,550/99,846,375) 2.89% [⇓] / USA (429,490/25,702,125) 2.711% [↭] / Canada (19,094/747,383) 2.79% [⇓]



***********************************************​

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 3,183 (YESTERDAY it was 3,174).

The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is below 3,200 for the first day in just under a week.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases has been fluttering – mostly due to the lack of progress on the part of the “Red States” which has obscured the gains made in the “Blue States”.

​

The number of deaths per day data has returned to acting “normally”. However the graph seems to indicate that the increase has begun to crest.

​

How are the major nations coping? This chart, from Our World in Data

​

illustrates the relative growth rates of COVID-19 in those areas.

Europe IS in the midst of "The Second Wave" of COVID-19. Is the US in a "(First?) Second (Third?) Wave"? See the next block and draw your own conclusions.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S “WAVE (TSUNAMI [?])” CHARTS

***********************************************

Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)

​

The rolling "7 Day Average" death rate is now higher than it has been since the beginning of May (shortly after the official announcement that COVID-19 would "vanish in a couple of weeks”).

​

The rolling "10 Day Average of the 7 Day Averages" (which gives a much "cleaner" charting) death rate is now higher than it has been since the beginning of May (shortly after the official announcement that COVID-19 would "vanish in a couple of weeks").

​

The daily average of new cases for the past 30 days is 216,336, for the past 10 days it is 183,999, and for the past five days it is 177,624. The graphs indicate that there is a possibility that this wave has crested in the US.

Is this the “Second Wave” or the "Third Wave"? Will there be another? Will the US simply continue its (essentially) straight line path without leveling until the pandemic crests and crashes? Draw your own conclusions from the charts and the facts NOT from the latest version of the currently operative, “officially” sanctioned, "Team Reactionary" approved, CT-News issued, truth-of-the-day as delivered by the -ONAN- (oops, sorry, that's) OANN people.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 4A – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

IN TABLES

***********************************************

HOW IS YOUR STATE DOING? ​

All base data is from Worldometer as of ~1400 on the date of posting.

NOTE – 1

The Oregon, Kansas, Delaware, and Alaska data for recovered cases are out of date and there is no newer data available. The “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and “Recovered Rate” are unreliable for those states.​

NOTE – 2

The percentage [top chart at the bottom of the tables] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.​

First, the table sorted by "Blue States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]") and "Red States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]")

​

And then sorted by “Cases per Million”

​

And then sorted by “Deaths per Million”

​

Those are OK if you want to look up specific numbers, but, because they are “single data point” tables, they don’t actually show you what is happening over time. For that, see the next block.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 4B – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

IN CHARTS

***********************************************

HOW ARE THE "RED" AND "BLUE" STATES DOING?​

As you can see from the "Summary" table, BOTH the "Red States" and the "Blue States" have now moved into the blue "±5% of Average" zone on the "Deaths per Million" column. The "Red States" have moved into that zone from the green "LESS that 95% of Average" zone (for those who still believe that their "expert prediction of 10,300 ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM deaths is accurate, that means that their performance is getting worse)and the "Blue States" have moved into that zone from the red "MORE than 105% of Average" zone (for those who still believe that their "expert prediction of 10,300 ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM deaths is accurate, that means that their performance is getting better).

The “Red States” relative percentage of deaths has now moved from the (more than 5% lower than the National Average) “Green Zone” into the (±5% of National Average) “Blue Zone.

The "Blue States" relative percentage of deaths has now moved from the (more than 5% higher than the National Average) “Green Zone” into the (±5% of National Average) “Blue Zone.

​

The situation with respect to “Cases per Million” continues NOT to be “happy making”. In fact, NO STATE has a “Cases per Million” rate that is lower than the world average.

The "Red States" increase in "Cases per Million" continues at a faster pace than that of the "Blue States".

​

As far as “Deaths per Million” goes, the “Blue States” and the “Red States” are still battling it out to see which can win the "I can kill more of my people than you can" title (the “Red States” continue to draw ahead of the “Blue States” and now have a significant lead).

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 5 – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

Mortality Measurements

***********************************************​

The “Mortality Index” continues to climb. That indicates that the number of deaths is increasing faster than the number of tests so you cannot blame the increase in deaths on the increase in tests.

​

In table format, here is how the individual states are doing

​

And to give an overview of how the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing here is that data reduces to a chart.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 6 – THE “TOP 20”s

***********************************************​

Of the 20 countries with the highest number of TOTAL cases, the US, with around 10.17% of the total population of the group, has around 32.35% of the total cases for the group. This is roughly 3.18 times its proportional share.

​

Of the 20 countries with the highest number of currently ACTIVE cases, the US, with around 10.79% of the total population of the group, has around 49.77% of the total cases for the group. This is roughly 4.61 times its proportional share.

​

Extracted from Worldometer, here is the list of the 20 countries with the highest number of COVID-19 “Deaths per Million”

​

That table shows that those people who are panic mongering and claiming that the US has the world’s highest COVID-19 death rate either simply don’t know what they are talking about or are deliberately attempting to spread false information.

The US remains as #7 on the list of the Top 20 countries for "Cases per Million" and has a long way to go before its number (77,392 on 25 JAN 21) surpasses Luxembourg's (78,681 on 25 JAN 21) to move into the #6 slot.

As you can plainly see, <SARC> from that table, all of the countries with higher “Deaths per Million” counts than the US has have those so-called “Universal Healthcare Insurance” programs and that is definitive proof that those so-called “Universal Healthcare Insurance” programs are ineffective and result in the deaths of millions because of their reliance on Death Panels to ration healthcare (unlike the US where you get all the healthcare that you can pay for out of your own pocket [at rates determined by totally unbiased actuaries and CFOs]) </SARC>.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 7 – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

Mortality Measurements

***********************************************​

The fact that the total number of US deaths continues to rise isn’t going to surprise anyone other than Dr. Mashmont who jusknowz that the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM number of COVID-19 deaths peaked out at 10,300 and that there hasn’t been a single COVID-19 death in the US since April 4, 2020.

The "Mashmont Theory" appears to be that the world's medical community and every other government in the world are all lying about the impact of COVID-19 on the people of the world AND that they are doing so specifically to make Mr. Trump (and **D*O*C*T*O*R** Mashmont [not necessarily in that order]) look bad.

​

In the past 24 hours, the US (with approximately 4.26% of the world’s population) has had approximately 25.74% of the world’s COVID-19 cases. That is a disparity of 6.05 :: 1 (which is a “Percentage Grade” of 16.54%). It also has 20.06% of the world’s COVID-19 deaths, which is a disparity of 4.71 :: 1 (which is a “Percentage Grade” of 21.21%).

Each of those “Percentage Grades” is an “F”

A more easily grasped illustration (with an expanded colour scale so that even the innumerate followers of **D*O*C*T*O*R** Mashmont can follow it) of what the "Daily Death Rate" is doing in the US is

​

Comparing “chance of death” (a combination of “chance of infection” and “mortality rate) to “ability to pay” (PPP GDP per capita) and “previous support for healthcare system” (per capita spending on health care), the data is indicative that the US could have done considerably better than it actually did.
Italy and the UK continue to fair poorly (due to the emergence of a new strain of COVID-19), but Italy looks like it might be getting a grip on the situation. UNFORTUNATELY the new strain that caused Europe's current wave of cases appears to have managed to cross the Atlantic and reach North America. HOPEFULLY that new strain can be contained and no other new strain of increased severity develops.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 8 – VACCINATIONS

***********************************************​

The US, at #2, continues (at more than two and one half the Italian [#3] rate) to do well with respect to per capita vaccination rates. Canada continues to lag due to the fact that the American company (Pfizer) that contracted to deliver vaccines to Canada has said that it will not do so. The disparity will likely get much greater as soon as the Canadian vaccine supply has been exhausted.

Pfizer has not indicated when, if ever, it will resume deliveries of vaccine to Canada - despite its contractual obligations to do so.

​

The US (the only country that Pfizer has not reduced deliveries to) is still #1 with respect to total vaccinations.

​

The US (two and one half times the French (#3) and more than triple the Canadian (#4) rates) is doing well in daily vaccinations per capita and has a firm grip on the #2 slot.

This disparity is likely to increase due to the fact that the American company (Pfizer) that had contracted to sell one of the vaccines to Canada has announced that it will not be delivering any vaccine to Canada and has reduced its deliveries to France by about 50%. Pfizer's deliveries to the US are not being reduced.

​

The number of US vaccinations for the previous 24 hours as reported on 23 JAN 21 was 1.06 million. (The 24 JAN 21 report is not yet available.)

The previous high number was 975,540 which was reported on 22 JAN 21.

Assuming that the supply of vaccine continues, the US appears to be well on its way to meeting (or beating) the 1,000,000 per day vaccination rate initially announced by the new administration.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************​

Compare how the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” and an aggregated “World” are doing vis-à-vis each other.

***********************************************​

Projections based on the trends current as of the day of posting showing how COVID-19 is likely to progress, its likely total in its first year in the US, and comparing its effect with that of the “-Spanish- 1918 Flu”. COVID-19 is now killing Americans at almost 1.5 times the daily rate that the “1918 Flu” did.

​

COVID-19 is officially the THIRD largest cause of death in the US. However, looked at on a 265 day basis, and considering that many people who would have otherwise died of Heart Disease will have died early from COVID-19, it is highly likely that COVID-19 is actually the #1 cause of death in the United States of America. At the present rate, the estimated “Low 365 Day” death count from COVID-19 exceeds the official annual rate for Cancer (it's 112.10% that of Cancer) and is 103.95% that for Heart Disease. For the estimated “High 365 Day” death count, it is 123.90% that of Cancer and 114.89% that of Heart Disease.

COVID-19 is now killing Americans at 1.528 times the daily rate that “The 1918 Flu” killed them.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 500,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 16 FEB 21.

***********************************************​

This table shows how well the various areas are doing with respect to both the US and the World after adjustments for various factors. To see how well likely a random person in the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” or an aggregated “World” is to die from COVID-19 (which is a combination of the answers to the questions “How likely am I to catch COVID-19?” and “If I do catch COVID-19, then how likely am I to die from it?”) as well as how well the areas are doing in respect of their (per capita) relative abilities to pay for fighting COVID-19 and with respect to the (per capita) amount that they previously spent on supporting their healthcare systems you will have to go to the Block 6 and look at the final table.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 2 - DATA

(WITH ARROWS [for the graduates of the BS (Statistics) program at The University of Numerology])

***********************************************

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting) -

See “General Notes” for caveats as to accuracy of data and “Mortality Rate (Closed)” use.

20/11/15 – World (1,320,932/54,506,572) 3.36% [⇓] / USA (251,285/11,235,666) 3.52% [⇓] / Canada (10,891/291,931) 4.47% [⇓]

20/11/20 – World (1,368,622/57,394,073) 3.32% [↭] / USA (258,363/12,075,243) 3.44% [⇓] / Canada (11,265/315,754) 4.27% [⇓]

20/11/25 – World (1,417,896/60,242,064) 3.29% [↭] / USA (265,986/12,958,805) 3.36% [⇓] / Canada (11,618/342,444) 4.08% [⇓]

20/11/30 – World (1,467,511/63,199,555) 3.25% [⇓] / USA (273,126/13,753,146) 3.26% [⇓] / Canada (12,032/307,278) 3.93% [⇓]

20/12/05 – World (1,527,740/66,408,088) 3.22% [↭] / USA (285,786/14,784,826) 3.19% [⇓] / Canada (12,496/402,569) 3.76% [⇓]

20/12/10 – World (1,579,100/69,418,464) 3.17% [⇓] / USA (296,836/15,829,017) 3.11% [⇓] / Canada (12,983/435,330) 3.58% [⇓]

20/12/15 – World (1,631,067/73,337,911) 3.07% [⇓] / USA (308,091/16,943,897) 3.02% [⇓] / Canada (13,553/468,862) 3.45% [⇓]

20/12/20 – World (1,694,129/76,728,477) 3.05% [⇓] / USA (323,404/18,078,925) 2.98% [⇓] / Canada (14,154/501,594) 3.33% [⇓]

20/12/25 – World (1,751,877/79,864,734) 3.02% [↭] / USA (337,075/19,113,266) 2.92% [↭] / Canada (14,719/535,212) 3.21% [⇓]

20/12/30 – World (1,800,115/82,477,841) 2.99% [↭] / USA (346,604/19,979,759) 2.84% [⇓] / Canada (15,378/565,506) 3.12% [⇓]

21/01/05 – World (1,863,908/86,250,039) 2.96% [⇓] / USA (362,130/21,354,933) 2.76% [⇓] / Canada (16,074/611,424) 3.00% [⇓]

20/01/10 – World (1,937,942/90,267,680) 2.91% [↭] / USA (381,557/22,714,728) 2.77% [↭] / Canada (16,833/652,473) 2.96% [⇓]

21/01/15 – World (2,005,523/93,668,581) 2.91% [↭] / USA (398,185/23,862,138) 2.74% [↭] / Canada (17,538/688,891) 2.87% [⇓]

21/01/18 – World (2,039,601/95,479,062) 2.91% [↭] / USA (407,212/24,483,583) 2.74% [⇓] / Canada (18,014/708,619) 2.84% [⇓]

21/01/19 – World (2,051,808/96,100,446) 2.90% [⇓] / USA (408,623/24,628,198) 2.73% [⇓] / Canada (18,120/715,072) 2.83% [⇓]

21/01/20 – World (2,069,135/96,759,303) 2.89% [⇓] / USA (411,594/24,814,003) 2.71% [⇓] / Canada (18,266/719,751) 2.82% [⇓]

20/01/21 – World (2,086,148/97,421,975) 2.89% [↭] / USA (415,909/25,000,676) 2.70% [⇓] / Canada (18,462/725,495) 2.81% [⇓]

21/01/22 – World (2,103,101/98,213,310) 2.89% [↭] / USA (420,318/25,198,489) 2.71% [⇑] / Canada (18,622/731,450) 2.80% [⇓]

21/01/23 – World (2,118,975/98,852,622) 2.90% [⇑] / USA (424,275/25,397,214) 2.71% [↭] / Canada (18,828/737,407) 2.80% [↭]

21/01/24 – World (2,132,033/99,405,023) 2.90% [↭] / USA (427,635/25,566,789) 2.71% [↭] / Canada (18,974/742,531) 2.80% [↭]

21/01/25 – World (2,140,550/99,846,375) 2.89% [⇓] / USA (429,490/25,702,125) 2.711% [↭] / Canada (19,094/747,383) 2.79% [⇓]

21/01/26 – World (2,152,125/100,377,364) 2.89% [↭] / USA (431,397/25,862,984) 2.69% [⇓] / Canada (19,238/753,011) 2.79% [↭]

The world total for COVID-19 cases has now passed 100,000,000.



***********************************************​

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 3,253 (YESTERDAY it was 3,183).

The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is below 3,000 for the first day in two weeks.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases has been fluttering – mostly due to the lack of progress on the part of the “Red States” which has obscured the gains made in the “Blue States”.

​

The number of deaths per day data has returned to acting “normally”. However the graph seems to indicate that the increase has begun to crest.

​

How are the major nations coping? This chart, from Our World in Data

​

illustrates the relative growth rates of COVID-19 in those areas.

Europe IS in the midst of "The Second Wave" of COVID-19. Is the US in a "(First?) Second (Third?) Wave"? See the next block and draw your own conclusions.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S “WAVE (TSUNAMI [?])” CHARTS

***********************************************

Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)

​

The rolling "7 Day Average" death rate is now higher than it has been since the beginning of May (shortly after the official announcement that COVID-19 would "vanish in a couple of weeks”).

​

The rolling "10 Day Average of the 7 Day Averages" (which gives a much "cleaner" charting) death rate is now higher than it has been since the beginning of May (shortly after the official announcement that COVID-19 would "vanish in a couple of weeks").

​

The daily average of new cases for the past 30 days is 214,305, for the past 10 days it is 175,856, and for the past five days it is 172,462. The graphs indicate that there is a possibility that this wave has crested in the US.

Is this the “Second Wave” or the "Third Wave"? Will there be another? Will the US simply continue its (essentially) straight line path without leveling until the pandemic crests and crashes? Draw your own conclusions from the charts and the facts NOT from the latest version of the currently operative, “officially” sanctioned, "Team Reactionary" approved, CT-News issued, truth-of-the-day as delivered by the -ONAN- (oops, sorry, that's) OANN people.