Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19

[TU Curmudgeon]

=================================================

GENERAL ADVICE FOR DEALING WITH COVID-19

The best advice anyone can give you is



TAKE IT!

AND

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......|…...PLEASE ........| ...
.........| ..DON'T FEED ...| ......
…......| .THE TROLLS ...| .......
.....'--------------Ooo----'....
.............|__|__| .............
..............|| ||..............
.............ooO Ooo.............
==============================================================​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

GENERAL NOTES

If you have any dispute/discussion regarding the statistics, please feel free to link back to the latest post in the NEW THREAD that you start so that we can debate what your dispute/discussion is.

DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z the day of posting) except where noted.​

NOTE 1 –

“Mortality Rate (All)” appears to bear a one to one correlation to “[Mortality Rate (Closed)] x [Clearance Rate]”. That means that it is likely that the _real_ mortality rate is the “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and only the differing lengths of time from diagnosis to death is obscuring that.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Asian” population percentages.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Racial” population percentages.​

NOTE 3 –

The Mortality Index chart has been moved to “Block 5” and is being replaced by a chart showing the “7 Day Average New US Cases” and “10 Day Average of 7 Day Averages”. The second measure produces a “cleaner” curve, but is somewhat “sluggish”.​

SPECIAL EXPLANATORY NOTE 4 FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS (who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)

1. All charts employ a 30 day forward projection. (Thanks to “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.)
   *
2. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
3. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
4. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
5. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as of the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
6. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
7. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt or cherry-picking data, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

NOTE 5 – SPECIAL NOTES REGARDING TABLES AND GRAPHS CONCERNING U.S. STATES

1. There are a whole lot of posts comparing "State X" against "States A, B, and C" without any acknowledgement that there are actually 50 states. (This is known as "cherry picking data".)
   *
2. The determination of which states are "Red" and which states are "Blue" is made by Vaughn's Summaries and is based on the 2016 election results.
   *
3. The totals are lower than the totals on Worldometer because US colonial possessions are excluded and only the actual US states are considered.
   *
4. Since ALL of the states (and even the District of Columbia) about the only "cherry picking" you can accuse me of doing is leaving out the American colonies of American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands.

NOTE 6 –

How does the number of tests related to the "Mortality Rate"? It doesn't, and I'm no longer going to be posting that table routinely.​

NOTE 7 –

How does the NATIONAL “Population Density” relate to either the “Infection Rate” or the "Mortality Rate"? It doesn't, (with respect to specified areas inside countries it does, but I simply don’t have the facilities to deal with THAT much nitpicking) and I'm no longer going to be posting that table routinely.​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 4B – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

IN CHARTS

***********************************************

HOW ARE THE "RED" AND "BLUE" STATES DOING?​

As you can see from the "Summary" table, BOTH the "Red States" and the "Blue States" have now moved into the blue "±5% of Average" zone on the "Deaths per Million" column. The "Red States" have moved into that zone from the green "LESS that 95% of Average" zone (for those who still believe that their "expert prediction of 10,300 ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM deaths is accurate, that means that their performance is getting worse)and the "Blue States" have moved into that zone from the red "MORE than 105% of Average" zone (for those who still believe that their "expert prediction of 10,300 ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM deaths is accurate, that means that their performance is getting better).

The “Red States” relative percentage of deaths has now moved from the (better than 5% less than the National Average) “Green Zone” and into the (±5% of National Average) “Blue Zone.

​

The situation with respect to “Cases per Million” continues NOT to be “happy making”. In fact, NONE of the states have a “Cases per Million” rate that is lower than the world average.

The "Red States" increase in "Cases per Million" continues at a faster pace than that of the "Blue States".

​

As far as “Deaths per Million” goes, the “Red States” (with their rate that continues to increase) have finally managed to surpass the “Blue States” (with their rate that continues to decrease) – but only by the tiniest little bit (which you can’t see on the graph as the numbers are so close) so far.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 5 – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

Mortality Measures

***********************************************​

The “Mortality Index” continues to climb. That indicates that the number of deaths is increasing faster than the number of tests so you cannot blame the increase in deaths on the increase in tests.

​

In table format, here is how the individual states are doing

​

And to give an overview of how the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing here is that data reduces to a chart.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 6 – THE “TOP 20”s

***********************************************​

Extracted from Worldometer, here is the list of the 20 countries with the highest number of total cases.

​

Extracted from Worldometer, here is the list of the 20 countries with the highest number of currently active cases.

​

Extracted from Worldometer, here is the list of the 20 countries with the highest number of COVID-19 “Deaths per Million”

​

That table shows that those people who are panic mongering and claiming that the US has the world’s highest COVID-19 death rate either simply don’t know what they are talking about or are deliberately attempting to spread false information.

As you can plainly see, <SARC> from that table, all of the countries with higher “Deaths per Million” counts than the US has have “Universal Healthcare Insurance” programs and that is definitive proof that “Universal Healthcare Insurance” programs are ineffective and result in the deaths of millions because of their reliance on Death Panels to ration healthcare</SARC> (unlike the US where you get all the healthcare that you can pay for out of your own pocket).

PS - The rumor that Mr. Trump has threatened both * and * with crushing sanctions if they don’t stop lying about their “Deaths per Million” numbers as a part of the nefarious plot to overturn the results of the 2016 election, make him look bad, and disguise the fact that the 2020 election was a total sham because he actually got over 100,000,000 votes is totally false.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 7 – US DATA CORRELATIONS

Mortality Measures

***********************************************​

The fact that the total number of US deaths continues to rise isn’t going to surprise anyone other than Dr. Mashmont who jusknowz that the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM number of COVID-19 deaths peaked out at 10,300 and that there hasn’t been a single COVID-19 death in the US since April 4, 2020.

​

In the past 24 hours, the US (with approximately 4.24% of the world’s population) has had approximately 18.21% of the world’s COVID-19 deaths. That is a disparity of 4.30 :: 1 which would work out to a “Percentage Grade” of 23.28% (which is an “F”).

A more easily grasped illustration of what the "Daily Death Rate" is doing in the US is

​

Comparing “chance of death” (a combination of “chance of infection” and “mortality rate) to “ability to pay” (PPP GDP per capita) and “previous support for healthcare system” (per capita spending on health care), the data is indicative that the US could have done considerably better than it actually did.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************​

Compare how the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” and an aggregated “World” are doing vis-à-vis each other.

***********************************************​

Projections based on the trends current as of the day of posting showing how COVID-19 is likely to progress, its likely total in its first year in the US, and comparing its effect with that of the “Spanish Flu”

​

COVID-19 is now the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 350,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 31 DEC 20.

***********************************************​

If you want to see how likely a random person in the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” or an aggregated “World” is to die from COVID-19 (which is a combination of the answers to the questions “How likely am I to catch COVID-19?” and “If I do catch COVID-19, then how likely am I to die from it?”) this table shows you. It also shows how well the areas are doing in respect of their (per capita) relative abilities to pay for fighting COVID-19 and with respect to the (per capita) amount that they previously spent on supporting their healthcare systems.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 2 - DATA

(WITH ARROWS [for the graduates of the BS (Statistics) program at The University of Numerology])

***********************************************

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting) -

See “General Notes” for caveats as to accuracy of data and “Mortality Rate (Closed)” use.

20/10/05 – World (1,042,616/35,444,476) 3.76% [⇓] / USA (214,626/7,637,864) 4.24% [⇓] / Canada (9,481/166,156) 6.33% [⇓]
20/10/10 – World (1,073,673/37,175,477) 3.70% [⇓] / USA (218,685/7,895,738) 4.14% [⇓] / Canada (9,585/178,117) 6.02% [⇓]
20/10/15 – World (1,098,143/38,832,219) 3.63% [⇓] / USA (221,895/8,156,124) 4.03% [⇓] / Canada (9,664/189,387) 5.72% [⇓]
20/10/20 – World (1,124,519/40,749,872) 3.57% [⇓] / USA (225,269/8,459,967) 3.93% [⇓] / Canada (9,778/201,437) 5.45% [⇓]
20/10/25 – World (1,156,181/43,055,448) 3.51% [⇓] / USA (230,086/8,831,449) 3.85% [⇓] / Canada (9,922/213,959) 5.23% [⇓]
20/10/30 – World (1,188,262/45,475,853) 3.47% [⇓] / USA (234,218/9,521,474) 3.77% [⇓] / Canada (10,074/228,542) 5.00% [⇓]
20/11/05 – World (1,233,212/48,588,813) 3.42% [⇓] / USA (239,842/9,802,374) 3.67% [⇓] / Canada (10,331/247,703) 4.78% [⇓]
20/11/10 – World (1,271,398/51,359,570) 3.40% [↭] / USA (244,449/10,422,026) 3.60% [⇓] / Canada (10,564/268,735) 4.61% [⇓]
20/11/15 – World (1,320,932/54,506,572) 3.36% [⇓] / USA (251,285/11,235,666) 3.52% [⇓] / Canada (10,891/291,931) 4.47% [⇓]
20/11/20 – World (1,368,622/57,394,073) 3.32% [↭] / USA (258,363/12,075,243) 3.44% [⇓] / Canada (11,265/315,754) 4.27% [⇓]
20/11/25 – World (1,417,896/60,242,064) 3.29% [↭] / USA (265,986/12,958,805) 3.36% [⇓] / Canada (11,618/342,444) 4.08% [⇓]
20/11/30 – World (1,467,511/63,199,555) 3.25% [⇓] / USA (273,126/13,753,146) 3.26% [⇓] / Canada (12,032/307,278) 3.93% [⇓]
20/12/05 – World (1,527,740/66,408,088) 3.22% [↭] / USA (285,786/14,784,826) 3.19% [⇓] / Canada (12,496/402,569) 3.76% [⇓]
20/12/10 – World (1,579,100/69,418,464) 3.17% [⇓] / USA (296,836/15,829,017) 3.11% [⇓] / Canada (12,983/435,330) 3.58% [⇓]
20/12/15 – World (1,631,067/73,337,911) 3.07% [⇓] / USA (308,091/16,943,897) 3.02% [⇓] / Canada (13,553/468,862) 3.45% [⇓]
20/12/17 – World (1,658,424/74,685,082) 3.06% [⇓] / USA (314,629/17,359,727) 3.00% [⇓] / Canada (13,799/481,630) 3.40% [⇓]
20/12/18 – World (1,671,447/75,455,362) 3.06% [↭] / USA (317,929/17,628,578) 3.00% [↭] / Canada (13,916/488,638) 3.37% [⇓]
20/12/19 – World (1,686,734/76,304,803) 3.06% [↭] / USA (321,025/17,899,267) 2.99% [⇓] / Canada (14,067/497,703) 3.34% [⇓]
20/12/20 – World (1,694,129/76,728,477) 3.05% [⇓] / USA (323,404/18,078,925) 2.98% [⇓] / Canada (14,154/501,594) 3.33% [⇓]
20/12/21 – World (1,701,797/77,274,430) 3.04% [⇓] / USA (324,869/18,267,579) 2.97% [⇓] / Canada (14,228/507,795) 3.30% [⇓]
20/12/22 – NO DATA ENTRY THIS DATE – Systems “issues”
20/12/23 – World (1,722,190/78,302,263) 3.03% [⇓] / USA (330,864/18,688,529) 2.93% [⇓] / Canada (14,425/521,509) 3.23% [⇓]
20/12/24 – World (1,740,719/79,206,175) 3.02% [⇓] / USA (334,239/18,919,461) 2.92% [⇓] / Canada (14,597/528,354) 3.22% [⇓]
20/12/25 – World (1,751,877/79,864,734) 3.02% [↭] / USA (337,075/19,113,266) 2.92% [↭] / Canada (14,719/535,212) 3.21% [⇓]
20/12/26 – World (1,759,690/80,306,622) 3.02% [↭] / USA (338,283/19,212,044) 2.92% [↭] / Canada (14,719/535,213) 3.21% [↭]

***********************************************​

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 2,465 (YESTERDAY it was 2,735).

The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is above 2,600 for the THIRD day in a row.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases is still dropping.

​

The number of deaths per day data is acting "strangely", but that may be due to the combined effect of the weekend and "The Christmas Effect".

​

How are the major nations coping? This chart, from Our World in Data

​

illustrates the relative growth rates of COVID-19 in those areas.

Europe IS in the midst of "The Second Wave" of COVID-19. Is the US in a "(First?) Second (Third?) Wave"? See the next block and draw your own conclusions.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S “WAVE(?)”CHARTS

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Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)

​

The rolling "7 Day Average" death rate is now higher than it has been since the beginning of May (shortly after Mr. Trump announced that COVID-19 would "vanish in a couple of weeks”).

​

The rolling "10 Day Average of the 7 Day Averages" (which gives a much "cleaner" charting) death rate is now higher than it has been since the beginning of May (shortly after Mr. Trump announced that COVID-19 would "vanish in a couple of weeks").

​

The "New Cases per Day" numbers may be unreliable due to the combined effect of a weekend and “The Christmas Effect”. This might last into the new year.]/b] The daily average of new cases for the past 30 days is 202,139, for the past 10 days it is 205,606, and for the past five days it is 188,893.

Is this the “Second Wave” or the "Third Wave"? Will there be another? Will the US simply continue its (essentially) straight line path without leveling until the pandemic crests and crashes? Draw your own conclusions from the charts and the facts NOT from the latest version of the currently operative, officially sanctioned, "Team Trump" approved, White House issued, truth-of-the-day as delivered by the -ONAN- (oops, sorry, that's) OANN people.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 4A – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

IN TABLES

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HOW IS YOUR STATE DOING? ​

All base data is from Worldometer as of ~1400 on the date of posting.

NOTE – 1

The Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska data for recovered cases are out of date and there is no newer data available. The “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and “Recovered Rate” are unreliable for those states.​

*
NOTE – 2

The percentage [top chart at the bottom of the tables] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.​

First, the table sorted by "Blue States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]") and "Red States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]")

​

And then sorted by “Cases per Million”

​

And then sorted by “Deaths per Million”

​

Those are OK if you want to look up specific numbers, but they don’t actually show you what is happening over time. For that, see the next block.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 4B – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

IN CHARTS

***********************************************

HOW ARE THE "RED" AND "BLUE" STATES DOING?​

As you can see from the "Summary" table, BOTH the "Red States" and the "Blue States" have now moved into the blue "±5% of Average" zone on the "Deaths per Million" column. The "Red States" have moved into that zone from the green "LESS that 95% of Average" zone (for those who still believe that their "expert prediction of 10,300 ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM deaths is accurate, that means that their performance is getting worse)and the "Blue States" have moved into that zone from the red "MORE than 105% of Average" zone (for those who still believe that their "expert prediction of 10,300 ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM deaths is accurate, that means that their performance is getting better).

The “Red States” relative percentage of deaths has now moved from the (better than 5% less than the National Average) “Green Zone” and into the (±5% of National Average) “Blue Zone.

​

The situation with respect to “Cases per Million” continues NOT to be “happy making”. In fact, ONLY Vermont has a “Cases per Million” rate that is lower than the world average.

The "Red States" increase in "Cases per Million" continues at a faster pace than that of the "Blue States".

​

As far as “Deaths per Million” goes, the “Red States” (with their rate that continues to increase) have once again been passed by the “Blue States” (with their rate that continues to decrease) – but only by the tiniest little bit (which you can’t see on the graph as the numbers are so close) so far.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 5 – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

Mortality Mettics

***********************************************​

The “Mortality Index” continues to climb. That indicates that the number of deaths is increasing faster than the number of tests so you cannot blame the increase in deaths on the increase in tests.

​

In table format, here is how the individual states are doing

​

And to give an overview of how the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing here is that data reduces to a chart.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 6 – THE “TOP 20”s

***********************************************​

Extracted from Worldometer, here is the list of the 20 countries with the highest number of total cases.

​

Extracted from Worldometer, here is the list of the 20 countries with the highest number of currently active cases.

​

Extracted from Worldometer, here is the list of the 20 countries with the highest number of COVID-19 “Deaths per Million”

​

That table shows that those people who are panic mongering and claiming that the US has the world’s highest COVID-19 death rate either simply don’t know what they are talking about or are deliberately attempting to spread false information.

As you can plainly see, <SARC> from that table, all of the countries with higher “Deaths per Million” counts than the US has have “Universal Healthcare Insurance” programs and that is definitive proof that “Universal Healthcare Insurance” programs are ineffective and result in the deaths of millions because of their reliance on Death Panels to ration healthcare</SARC> (unlike the US where you get all the healthcare that you can pay for out of your own pocket).

PS - The rumor that Mr. Trump has congratulated the leaders of both Czechia and Bulgaria for stopping lying about their “Deaths per Million” and abandonment of their parts in the nefarious plot to overturn the results of the 2016 election, make him look bad, and disguise the fact that the 2020 election was a total sham because he actually got over 100,000,000 votes is totally false.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 7 – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

Mortality Meatrics

***********************************************​

The fact that the total number of US deaths continues to rise isn’t going to surprise anyone other than Dr. Mashmont who jusknowz that the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM number of COVID-19 deaths peaked out at 10,300 and that there hasn’t been a single COVID-19 death in the US since April 4, 2020.

​

In the past 24 hours, the US (with approximately 4.24% of the world’s population) has had approximately 15.46% of the world’s COVID-19 deaths. That is a disparity of 3.65 :: 1 which would work out to a “Percentage Grade” of 27.43% (which is an “F”).

A more easily grasped illustration of what the "Daily Death Rate" is doing in the US is

​

Comparing “chance of death” (a combination of “chance of infection” and “mortality rate) to “ability to pay” (PPP GDP per capita) and “previous support for healthcare system” (per capita spending on health care), the data is indicative that the US could have done considerably better than it actually did.

Both Italy and the UK are still struggling to come to grips with the latest round of COVID-19 cases.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************​

Compare how the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” and an aggregated “World” are doing vis-à-vis each other.

***********************************************​

Projections based on the trends current as of the day of posting showing how COVID-19 is likely to progress, its likely total in its first year in the US, and comparing its effect with that of the “Spanish Flu”

​

COVID-19 is now the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 350,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 31 DEC 20.

***********************************************​

If you want to see how likely a random person in the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” or an aggregated “World” is to die from COVID-19 (which is a combination of the answers to the questions “How likely am I to catch COVID-19?” and “If I do catch COVID-19, then how likely am I to die from it?”) this table shows you. It also shows how well the areas are doing in respect of their (per capita) relative abilities to pay for fighting COVID-19 and with respect to the (per capita) amount that they previously spent on supporting their healthcare systems.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 2 - DATA

(WITH ARROWS [for the graduates of the BS (Statistics) program at The University of Numerology])

***********************************************

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting) -

See “General Notes” for caveats as to accuracy of data and “Mortality Rate (Closed)” use.

20/10/05 – World (1,042,616/35,444,476) 3.76% [⇓] / USA (214,626/7,637,864) 4.24% [⇓] / Canada (9,481/166,156) 6.33% [⇓]
20/10/10 – World (1,073,673/37,175,477) 3.70% [⇓] / USA (218,685/7,895,738) 4.14% [⇓] / Canada (9,585/178,117) 6.02% [⇓]
20/10/15 – World (1,098,143/38,832,219) 3.63% [⇓] / USA (221,895/8,156,124) 4.03% [⇓] / Canada (9,664/189,387) 5.72% [⇓]
20/10/20 – World (1,124,519/40,749,872) 3.57% [⇓] / USA (225,269/8,459,967) 3.93% [⇓] / Canada (9,778/201,437) 5.45% [⇓]
20/10/25 – World (1,156,181/43,055,448) 3.51% [⇓] / USA (230,086/8,831,449) 3.85% [⇓] / Canada (9,922/213,959) 5.23% [⇓]
20/10/30 – World (1,188,262/45,475,853) 3.47% [⇓] / USA (234,218/9,521,474) 3.77% [⇓] / Canada (10,074/228,542) 5.00% [⇓]
20/11/05 – World (1,233,212/48,588,813) 3.42% [⇓] / USA (239,842/9,802,374) 3.67% [⇓] / Canada (10,331/247,703) 4.78% [⇓]
20/11/10 – World (1,271,398/51,359,570) 3.40% [↭] / USA (244,449/10,422,026) 3.60% [⇓] / Canada (10,564/268,735) 4.61% [⇓]
20/11/15 – World (1,320,932/54,506,572) 3.36% [⇓] / USA (251,285/11,235,666) 3.52% [⇓] / Canada (10,891/291,931) 4.47% [⇓]
20/11/20 – World (1,368,622/57,394,073) 3.32% [↭] / USA (258,363/12,075,243) 3.44% [⇓] / Canada (11,265/315,754) 4.27% [⇓]
20/11/25 – World (1,417,896/60,242,064) 3.29% [↭] / USA (265,986/12,958,805) 3.36% [⇓] / Canada (11,618/342,444) 4.08% [⇓]
20/11/30 – World (1,467,511/63,199,555) 3.25% [⇓] / USA (273,126/13,753,146) 3.26% [⇓] / Canada (12,032/307,278) 3.93% [⇓]
20/12/05 – World (1,527,740/66,408,088) 3.22% [↭] / USA (285,786/14,784,826) 3.19% [⇓] / Canada (12,496/402,569) 3.76% [⇓]
20/12/10 – World (1,579,100/69,418,464) 3.17% [⇓] / USA (296,836/15,829,017) 3.11% [⇓] / Canada (12,983/435,330) 3.58% [⇓]
20/12/15 – World (1,631,067/73,337,911) 3.07% [⇓] / USA (308,091/16,943,897) 3.02% [⇓] / Canada (13,553/468,862) 3.45% [⇓]
20/12/18 – World (1,671,447/75,455,362) 3.06% [↭] / USA (317,929/17,628,578) 3.00% [↭] / Canada (13,916/488,638) 3.37% [⇓]
20/12/19 – World (1,686,734/76,304,803) 3.06% [↭] / USA (321,025/17,899,267) 2.99% [⇓] / Canada (14,067/497,703) 3.34% [⇓]
20/12/20 – World (1,694,129/76,728,477) 3.05% [⇓] / USA (323,404/18,078,925) 2.98% [⇓] / Canada (14,154/501,594) 3.33% [⇓]
20/12/21 – World (1,701,797/77,274,430) 3.04% [⇓] / USA (324,869/18,267,579) 2.97% [⇓] / Canada (14,228/507,795) 3.30% [⇓]
20/12/22 – NO DATA ENTRY THIS DATE – Systems “issues”
20/12/23 – World (1,722,190/78,302,263) 3.03% [⇓] / USA (330,864/18,688,529) 2.93% [⇓] / Canada (14,425/521,509) 3.23% [⇓]
20/12/24 – World (1,740,719/79,206,175) 3.02% [⇓] / USA (334,239/18,919,461) 2.92% [⇓] / Canada (14,597/528,354) 3.22% [⇓]
20/12/25 – World (1,751,877/79,864,734) 3.02% [↭] / USA (337,075/19,113,266) 2.92% [↭] / Canada (14,719/535,212) 3.21% [⇓]
20/12/26 – World (1,759,690/80,306,622) 3.02% [↭] / USA (338,283/19,212,044) 2.92% [↭] / Canada (14,719/535,213) 3.21% [↭]
20/12/27 – World (1,766,603/80,799,040) 3.01% [⇓] / USA (339,921/19,433,847) 2.89% [⇓] / Canada (14,800/541,616) 3.20% [⇓]

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The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 2,360 (YESTERDAY it was 2,465).

The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is above 2,600 for the FOURTH day in a row.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases is still dropping.

​

The number of deaths per day data has returned to acting “normally”.

​

How are the major nations coping? This chart, from Our World in Data

​

illustrates the relative growth rates of COVID-19 in those areas.

Europe IS in the midst of "The Second Wave" of COVID-19. Is the US in a "(First?) Second (Third?) Wave"? See the next block and draw your own conclusions.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S “WAVE(?)”CHARTS

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Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)

​

The rolling "7 Day Average" death rate is now higher than it has been since the beginning of May (shortly after Mr. Trump announced that COVID-19 would "vanish in a couple of weeks”).

​

The rolling "10 Day Average of the 7 Day Averages" (which gives a much "cleaner" charting) death rate is now higher than it has been since the beginning of May (shortly after Mr. Trump announced that COVID-19 would "vanish in a couple of weeks").

​

The "New Cases per Day" numbers may be unreliable due to the combined effect of a weekend and “The Christmas Effect”. This might last into the new year. The daily average of new cases for the past 30 days is 206,023, for the past 10 days it is 207,412, and for the past five days it is 167,071.

Is this the “Second Wave” or the "Third Wave"? Will there be another? Will the US simply continue its (essentially) straight line path without leveling until the pandemic crests and crashes? Draw your own conclusions from the charts and the facts NOT from the latest version of the currently operative, officially sanctioned, "Team Trump" approved, White House issued, truth-of-the-day as delivered by the -ONAN- (oops, sorry, that's) OANN people.[/B]

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 4A – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

IN TABLES

***********************************************

HOW IS YOUR STATE DOING? ​

All base data is from Worldometer as of ~1400 on the date of posting.

NOTE – 1

The Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska data for recovered cases are out of date and there is no newer data available. The “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and “Recovered Rate” are unreliable for those states.​

*
NOTE – 2

The percentage [top chart at the bottom of the tables] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.​

First, the table sorted by "Blue States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]") and "Red States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]")

​

And then sorted by “Cases per Million”

​

And then sorted by “Deaths per Million”

​

Those are OK if you want to look up specific numbers, but they don’t actually show you what is happening over time. For that, see the next block.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 4B – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

IN CHARTS

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HOW ARE THE "RED" AND "BLUE" STATES DOING?​

As you can see from the "Summary" table, BOTH the "Red States" and the "Blue States" have now moved into the blue "±5% of Average" zone on the "Deaths per Million" column. The "Red States" have moved into that zone from the green "LESS that 95% of Average" zone (for those who still believe that their "expert prediction of 10,300 ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM deaths is accurate, that means that their performance is getting worse)and the "Blue States" have moved into that zone from the red "MORE than 105% of Average" zone (for those who still believe that their "expert prediction of 10,300 ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM deaths is accurate, that means that their performance is getting better).

The “Red States” relative percentage of deaths has now moved from the (better than 5% less than the National Average) “Green Zone” and into the (±5% of National Average) “Blue Zone.

​

The situation with respect to “Cases per Million” continues NOT to be “happy making”. In fact, NO STATE has a “Cases per Million” rate that is lower than the world average.

The "Red States" increase in "Cases per Million" continues at a faster pace than that of the "Blue States".

​

As far as “Deaths per Million” goes, the “Blue States” (with their rate that continues to increase) have once again been passed by the “Red States” (with their rate that continues to decrease) – but only by the tiniest little bit (which you can’t see on the graph as the numbers are so close) so far.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 5 – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

Mortality Measures

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The “Mortality Index” continues to climb. That indicates that the number of deaths is increasing faster than the number of tests so you cannot blame the increase in deaths on the increase in tests.

​

In table format, here is how the individual states are doing

​

And to give an overview of how the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing here is that data reduces to a chart.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 6 – THE “TOP 20”s

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Extracted from Worldometer, here is the list of the 20 countries with the highest number of total cases. The US has 10.72% of the total population and 30.31% of the cases - a ratio of 2.83 to 1. India has 42.48% of the population and 15.91% of the cases - a ratio of 0.37 to 1. Brazil has 6.53% of the population and 11.64% of that cases - a ratio of 1.78 to 1. Make of that what you will

​

Extracted from Worldometer, here is the list of the 20 countries with the highest number of currently active cases. The US has 10.72% of the total population of those 20 countries and has 50.10% of the total number of active cases - a ratio of 4.68 to 1. India has 44.77% of the population and 1.82% of the cases - a ratio of 0.04 to 1. Indonesia has 8.88% of the population and 0.71% of the cases - a ratio of 0.08 to 1. Make what you will of that.

​

Extracted from Worldometer, here is the list of the 20 countries with the highest number of COVID-19 “Deaths per Million”

​

That table shows that those people who are panic mongering and claiming that the US has the world’s highest COVID-19 death rate either simply don’t know what they are talking about or are deliberately attempting to spread false information.

As you can plainly see, <SARC> from that table, all of the countries with higher “Deaths per Million” counts than the US has have “Universal Healthcare Insurance” programs and that is definitive proof that “Universal Healthcare Insurance” programs are ineffective and result in the deaths of millions because of their reliance on Death Panels to ration healthcare (unlike the US where you get all the healthcare that you can pay for out of your own pocket) </SARC>.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 7 – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

Mortality Measures

***********************************************​

The fact that the total number of US deaths continues to rise isn’t going to surprise anyone other than Dr. Mashmont who jusknowz that the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM number of COVID-19 deaths peaked out at 10,300 and that there hasn’t been a single COVID-19 death in the US since April 4, 2020.

​

In the past 24 hours, the US (with approximately 4.24% of the world’s population) has had approximately 23.69% of the world’s COVID-19 deaths. That is a disparity of 5.59 :: 1 which would work out to a “Percentage Grade” of 17.90% (which is an “F”).

A more easily grasped illustration of what the "Daily Death Rate" is doing in the US is

​

Comparing “chance of death” (a combination of “chance of infection” and “mortality rate) to “ability to pay” (PPP GDP per capita) and “previous support for healthcare system” (per capita spending on health care), the data is indicative that the US could have done considerably better than it actually did.

​

 

[fireflygmf]

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BLOCK 7 – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

Mortality Measures

***********************************************​

The fact that the total number of US deaths continues to rise isn’t going to surprise anyone other than Dr. Mashmont who jusknowz that the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM number of COVID-19 deaths peaked out at 10,300 and that there hasn’t been a single COVID-19 death in the US since April 4, 2020.

Where is the good doctor these days? I haven't heard from him in quite some time. Perhaps he is giving lectures, seeing how the pandemic is now over.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Where is the good doctor these days? I haven't heard from him in quite some time. Perhaps he is giving lectures, seeing how the pandemic is now over.

I believe that he has decided to take his 3.030116% correct EXPERT prediction as to the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM number of COVID-19 deaths and use it as an illustration for his lectures on "How To Be Fantastically Accurate In Predicting The Future By Always Changing Your Definitions So That Whatever You Did Say Still Applies" at the Seers, Fortunetellers, and Oracles Hall of Fame.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

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Compare how the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” and an aggregated “World” are doing vis-à-vis each other.

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Projections based on the trends current as of the day of posting showing how COVID-19 is likely to progress, its likely total in its first year in the US, and comparing its effect with that of the “Spanish Flu”

​

COVID-19 is now the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 350,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 01 JAN 21.

***********************************************​

If you want to see how likely a random person in the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” or an aggregated “World” is to die from COVID-19 (which is a combination of the answers to the questions “How likely am I to catch COVID-19?” and “If I do catch COVID-19, then how likely am I to die from it?”) this table shows you. It also shows how well the areas are doing in respect of their (per capita) relative abilities to pay for fighting COVID-19 and with respect to the (per capita) amount that they previously spent on supporting their healthcare systems.

​