Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19

[TU Curmudgeon]

=================================================

GENERAL ADVICE FOR DEALING WITH COVID-19

The best advice anyone can give you is



TAKE IT!

AND

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......,-------ooO-----------,....
......|…...PLEASE ........| ...
.........| ..DON'T FEED ...| ......
…......| .THE TROLLS ...| .......
.....'--------------Ooo----'....
.............|__|__| .............
..............|| ||..............
.............ooO Ooo.............
==============================================================​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

GENERAL NOTES

If you have any dispute/discussion regarding the statistics, please feel free to link back to the latest post in the NEW THREAD that you start so that we can debate what your dispute/discussion is.

DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z the day of posting) except where noted.​

NOTE 1 –

“Mortality Rate (All)” appears to bear a one to one correlation to “[Mortality Rate (Closed)] x [Clearance Rate]”. That means that it is likely that the _real_ mortality rate is the “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and only the differing lengths of time from diagnosis to death is obscuring that.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Asian” population percentages.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Racial” population percentages.​

NOTE 3 –

The Mortality Index chart has been moved to “Block 5” and is being replaced by a chart showing the “7 Day Average New US Cases” and “10 Day Average of 7 Day Averages”. The second measure produces a “cleaner” curve, but is somewhat “sluggish”.​

SPECIAL EXPLANATORY NOTE 4 FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS (who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)

1. All charts employ a 30 day forward projection. (Thanks to “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.)
   *
2. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
3. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
4. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
5. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as of the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
6. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
7. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt or cherry-picking data, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

NOTE 5 – SPECIAL NOTES REGARDING TABLES AND GRAPHS CONCERNING U.S. STATES

1. There are a whole lot of posts comparing "State X" against "States A, B, and C" without any acknowledgement that there are actually 50 states. (This is known as "cherry picking data".)
   *
2. The determination of which states are "Red" and which states are "Blue" is made by Vaughn's Summaries and is based on the 2016 election results.
   *
3. The totals are lower than the totals on Worldometer because US colonial possessions are excluded and only the actual US states are considered.
   *
4. Since ALL of the states (and even the District of Columbia) about the only "cherry picking" you can accuse me of doing is leaving out the American colonies of American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands.

NOTE 6 –

How does the number of tests related to the "Mortality Rate"? It doesn't, and I'm no longer going to be posting that table routinely.​

NOTE 7 –

How does the NATIONAL “Population Density” relate to either the “Infection Rate” or the "Mortality Rate"? It doesn't, (with respect to specified areas inside countries it does, but I simply don’t have the facilities to deal with THAT much nitpicking) and I'm no longer going to be posting that table routinely.​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 4D – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

Mortality Rate

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​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 5 – MORTALITY ODDS and SODS

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The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".

​

In the past 24 hours, the US (with approximately 4.24% of the world’s population) has had approximately 19.11% of the world’s COVID-19 deaths. That is a disparity of 4.51 :: 1 which would work out to a “Percentage Grade” of 22.19% (which is an “F”).

A more easily grasped illustration of what the "Daily Death Rate" is doing in the US is

​

However, that does NOT mean that the US has the highest “Deaths per Million” count of any country in the world. As you can plainly see, <SARC> since all of the countries with higher “Deaths per Million” counts than the US has have “Universal Healthcare Insurance” programs that is definitive proof that “Universal Healthcare Insurance” programs are ineffective and result in the deaths of millions because of their reliance on Death Panels to ration healthcare</SARC>

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

NO UPDATE TODAY
(22 DEC 2020)

- Power Outage Delayed Data Receipt and Charts/Graphs are "wonky" -​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

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Compare how the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” and an aggregated “World” are doing vis-à-vis each other.

***********************************************​

Projections based on the trends current as of the day of posting showing how COVID-19 is likely to progress, its likely total in its first year in the US, and comparing its effect with that of the “Spanish Flu”

​

COVID-19 is now the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 350,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 30 DEC 20 .

***********************************************​

If you want to see how likely a random person in the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” or an aggregated “World” is to die from COVID-19 (which is a combination of the answers to the questions “How likely am I to catch COVID-19?” and “If I do catch COVID-19, then how likely am I to die from it?”) this table shows you. It also shows how well the areas are doing in respect of their (per capita) relative abilities to pay for fighting COVID-19 and with respect to the (per capita) amount that they previously spent on supporting their healthcare systems.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 2 - DATA

(WITH ARROWS [for the graduates of the BS (Statistics) program at The University of Numerology])

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QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting) -

See “General Notes” for caveats as to accuracy of data and “Mortality Rate (Closed)” use.

20/09/30 – World (1,013,593/33,896,069) 3.87% [⇓] / USA (210,814/7,407,201) 4.34% [⇓] / Canada (9,291/156,961) 6.50% [⇓]
20/10/05 – World (1,042,616/35,444,476) 3.76% [⇓] / USA (214,626/7,637,864) 4.24% [⇓] / Canada (9,481/166,156) 6.33% [⇓]
20/10/10 – World (1,073,673/37,175,477) 3.70% [⇓] / USA (218,685/7,895,738) 4.14% [⇓] / Canada (9,585/178,117) 6.02% [⇓]
20/10/15 – World (1,098,143/38,832,219) 3.63% [⇓] / USA (221,895/8,156,124) 4.03% [⇓] / Canada (9,664/189,387) 5.72% [⇓]
20/10/20 – World (1,124,519/40,749,872) 3.57% [⇓] / USA (225,269/8,459,967) 3.93% [⇓] / Canada (9,778/201,437) 5.45% [⇓]
20/10/25 – World (1,156,181/43,055,448) 3.51% [⇓] / USA (230,086/8,831,449) 3.85% [⇓] / Canada (9,922/213,959) 5.23% [⇓]
20/10/30 – World (1,188,262/45,475,853) 3.47% [⇓] / USA (234,218/9,521,474) 3.77% [⇓] / Canada (10,074/228,542) 5.00% [⇓]
20/11/05 – World (1,233,212/48,588,813) 3.42% [⇓] / USA (239,842/9,802,374) 3.67% [⇓] / Canada (10,331/247,703) 4.78% [⇓]
20/11/10 – World (1,271,398/51,359,570) 3.40% [↭] / USA (244,449/10,422,026) 3.60% [⇓] / Canada (10,564/268,735) 4.61% [⇓]
20/11/15 – World (1,320,932/54,506,572) 3.36% [⇓] / USA (251,285/11,235,666) 3.52% [⇓] / Canada (10,891/291,931) 4.47% [⇓]
20/11/20 – World (1,368,622/57,394,073) 3.32% [↭] / USA (258,363/12,075,243) 3.44% [⇓] / Canada (11,265/315,754) 4.27% [⇓]
20/11/25 – World (1,417,896/60,242,064) 3.29% [↭] / USA (265,986/12,958,805) 3.36% [⇓] / Canada (11,618/342,444) 4.08% [⇓]
20/11/30 – World (1,467,511/63,199,555) 3.25% [⇓] / USA (273,126/13,753,146) 3.26% [⇓] / Canada (12,032/307,278) 3.93% [⇓]
20/12/05 – World (1,527,740/66,408,088) 3.22% [↭] / USA (285,786/14,784,826) 3.19% [⇓] / Canada (12,496/402,569) 3.76% [⇓]
20/12/10 – World (1,579,100/69,418,464) 3.17% [⇓] / USA (296,836/15,829,017) 3.11% [⇓] / Canada (12,983/435,330) 3.58% [⇓]
20/12/14 – World (1,621,259/72,778,115) 3.08% [⇓] / USA (306,464/16,741,470) 3.05% [⇓] / Canada (13,431/460,743) 3.47% [⇓]
20/12/15 – World (1,631,067/73,337,911) 3.07% [⇓] / USA (308,091/16,943,897) 3.02% [⇓] / Canada (13,553/468,862) 3.45% [⇓]
20/12/16 – World (1,645,565/73,996,194) 3.07% [↭] / USA (311,225/17,155,985) 3.01% [⇓] / Canada (13,659/475,214) 3.42% [⇓]
20/12/17 – World (1,658,424/74,685,082) 3.06% [⇓] / USA (314,629/17,359,727) 3.00% [⇓] / Canada (13,799/481,630) 3.40% [⇓]
20/12/18 – World (1,671,447/75,455,362) 3.06% [↭] / USA (317,929/17,628,578) 3.00% [↭] / Canada (13,916/488,638) 3.37% [⇓]
20/12/19 – World (1,686,734/76,304,803) 3.06% [↭] / USA (321,025/17,899,267) 2.99% [⇓] / Canada (14,067/497,703) 3.34% [⇓]
20/12/20 – World (1,694,129/76,728,477) 3.05% [⇓] / USA (323,404/18,078,925) 2.98% [⇓] / Canada (14,154/501,594) 3.33% [⇓]
20/12/21 – World (1,701,797/77,274,430) 3.04% [⇓] / USA (324,869/18,267,579) 2.97% [⇓] / Canada (14,228/507,795) 3.30% [⇓]
20/12/22 – NO DATA ENTRY THIS DATE – Systems “issues”
20/12/23 – World (1,722,190/78,302,263) 3.03% [⇓] / USA (330,864/18,688,529) 2.93% [⇓] / Canada (14,425/521,509) 3.23% [⇓]

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The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 2,806 (YESTERDAY it was 2,709).

The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is above 2,500 for the THIRD day in a row.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases is still dropping.

​

The number of deaths per day data has returned to acting “normally”.

[INSERT B2 Daily Deaths HERE]​

How are the major nations coping? This chart, from Our World in Data

​

illustrates the relative growth rates of COVID-19 in those areas.

Europe IS in the midst of "The Second Wave" of COVID-19. Is the US in a "(First?) Second (Third?) Wave"? See the next block and draw your own conclusions.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S “WAVE(?)”CHARTS

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Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)

​

The rolling "7 Day Average" death rate is now higher than it has been since the beginning of May (shortly after Mr. Trump announced that COVID-19 would "vanish in a couple of weeks”).

​

The rolling "10 Day Average of the 7 Day Averages" (which gives a much "cleaner" charting) death rate is now higher than it has been since the beginning of May (shortly after Mr. Trump announced that COVID-19 would "vanish in a couple of weeks").

​

The "New Cases per Day" numbers appear to have recovered from their lack of reliability caused by the Thanksgiving holiday. The daily average of new cases for the past 30 days is 203,231, for the past 10 days it is 213,073, and for the past five days it is 211,990.

Is this the “Second Wave” or the "Third Wave"? Will there be another? Will the US simply continue its (essentially) straight line path without leveling until the pandemic crests and crashes? Draw your own conclusions from the charts and the facts NOT from the latest version of the currently operative, officially sanctioned, "Team Trump" approved, White House issued, truth-of-the-day as delivered by the -ONAN- (oops, sorry, that's) OANN people.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 4A – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

GENERAL

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HOW IS YOUR STATE DOING?

HOW ARE THE "RED" AND "BLUE" STATES DOING?​

All base data is from Worldometer as of ~1400 on the date of posting.

NOTE – 1

The Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska data for recovered cases are out of date and there is no newer data available. The “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and “Recovered Rate” are unreliable for those states.​

*
NOTE – 2

The percentage [top chart at the bottom of the tables] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.​

First, the table sorted by "Blue States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]") and "Red States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]")

​

As you can see from the "Summary" table, BOTH the "Red States" and the "Blue States" have now moved into the blue "±5% of Average" zone on the "Deaths per Million" column. The "Red States" have moved into that zone from the green "LESS that 95% of Average" zone (for those who still believe that their "expert prediction of 10,300 ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM deaths is accurate, that means that their performance is getting worse)and the "Blue States" have moved into that zone from the red "MORE than 105% of Average" zone (for those who still believe that their "expert prediction of 10,300 ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM deaths is accurate, that means that their performance is getting better).

The “Red States” relative percentage of deaths has now moved from the (better than 5% less than the National Average) “Green Zone” and into the (±5% of National Average) “Blue Zone.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 4B – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

Cases per Million[/ size]

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Second, sorted by “Cases per Million” figures.

NONE of the states have a “Cases per Million” rate that is lower than the world average.

​

The "Red States" increase in "Cases per Million" continues at a faster pace than that of the "Blue States".

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 4C – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

Deaths per Million

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Third, sorted by “Deaths per Million” figures

​

The "Blue States" proportional percentage of "Deaths per Million" continues to decrease while the "Red States" proportional percentage of "Deaths per Million" continues to increase. At the current rates of change, the "Red States" will surpass the "Blue States" in terms of "Deaths per Million" in less than ONE week (and might be higher in terms of relative percentages of the US population by Inauguration Day.

​

The “Red States” relative percentage of deaths has now moved from the (better than 5% less than the National Average) “Green Zone” and into the (±5% of National Average) “Blue Zone.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 4D – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

Mortality Rate

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​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 5 – MORTALITY ODDS and SODS

***********************************************​

The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".

​

In the past 24 hours, the US (with approximately 4.24% of the world’s population) has had approximately 27.78% of the world’s COVID-19 deaths. That is a disparity of 6.55 :: 1 which would work out to a “Percentage Grade” of 15.27% (which is an “F”).

A more easily grasped illustration of what the "Daily Death Rate" is doing in the US is

​

However, that does NOT mean that the US has the highest “Deaths per Million” count of any country in the world. As you can plainly see, <SARC> since all of the countries with higher “Deaths per Million” counts than the US has have “Universal Healthcare Insurance” programs that is definitive proof that “Universal Healthcare Insurance” programs are ineffective and result in the deaths of millions because of their reliance on Death Panels to ration healthcare</SARC>

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************​

Compare how the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” and an aggregated “World” are doing vis-à-vis each other.

***********************************************​

Projections based on the trends current as of the day of posting showing how COVID-19 is likely to progress, its likely total in its first year in the US, and comparing its effect with that of the “Spanish Flu”

​

COVID-19 is now the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 350,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 29 DEC 20 .

***********************************************​

If you want to see how likely a random person in the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” or an aggregated “World” is to die from COVID-19 (which is a combination of the answers to the questions “How likely am I to catch COVID-19?” and “If I do catch COVID-19, then how likely am I to die from it?”) this table shows you. It also shows how well the areas are doing in respect of their (per capita) relative abilities to pay for fighting COVID-19 and with respect to the (per capita) amount that they previously spent on supporting their healthcare systems.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 2 - DATA

(WITH ARROWS [for the graduates of the BS (Statistics) program at The University of Numerology])

***********************************************

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting) -

See “General Notes” for caveats as to accuracy of data and “Mortality Rate (Closed)” use.

20/09/30 – World (1,013,593/33,896,069) 3.87% [⇓] / USA (210,814/7,407,201) 4.34% [⇓] / Canada (9,291/156,961) 6.50% [⇓]
20/10/05 – World (1,042,616/35,444,476) 3.76% [⇓] / USA (214,626/7,637,864) 4.24% [⇓] / Canada (9,481/166,156) 6.33% [⇓]
20/10/10 – World (1,073,673/37,175,477) 3.70% [⇓] / USA (218,685/7,895,738) 4.14% [⇓] / Canada (9,585/178,117) 6.02% [⇓]
20/10/15 – World (1,098,143/38,832,219) 3.63% [⇓] / USA (221,895/8,156,124) 4.03% [⇓] / Canada (9,664/189,387) 5.72% [⇓]
20/10/20 – World (1,124,519/40,749,872) 3.57% [⇓] / USA (225,269/8,459,967) 3.93% [⇓] / Canada (9,778/201,437) 5.45% [⇓]
20/10/25 – World (1,156,181/43,055,448) 3.51% [⇓] / USA (230,086/8,831,449) 3.85% [⇓] / Canada (9,922/213,959) 5.23% [⇓]
20/10/30 – World (1,188,262/45,475,853) 3.47% [⇓] / USA (234,218/9,521,474) 3.77% [⇓] / Canada (10,074/228,542) 5.00% [⇓]
20/11/05 – World (1,233,212/48,588,813) 3.42% [⇓] / USA (239,842/9,802,374) 3.67% [⇓] / Canada (10,331/247,703) 4.78% [⇓]
20/11/10 – World (1,271,398/51,359,570) 3.40% [↭] / USA (244,449/10,422,026) 3.60% [⇓] / Canada (10,564/268,735) 4.61% [⇓]
20/11/15 – World (1,320,932/54,506,572) 3.36% [⇓] / USA (251,285/11,235,666) 3.52% [⇓] / Canada (10,891/291,931) 4.47% [⇓]
20/11/20 – World (1,368,622/57,394,073) 3.32% [↭] / USA (258,363/12,075,243) 3.44% [⇓] / Canada (11,265/315,754) 4.27% [⇓]
20/11/25 – World (1,417,896/60,242,064) 3.29% [↭] / USA (265,986/12,958,805) 3.36% [⇓] / Canada (11,618/342,444) 4.08% [⇓]
20/11/30 – World (1,467,511/63,199,555) 3.25% [⇓] / USA (273,126/13,753,146) 3.26% [⇓] / Canada (12,032/307,278) 3.93% [⇓]
20/12/05 – World (1,527,740/66,408,088) 3.22% [↭] / USA (285,786/14,784,826) 3.19% [⇓] / Canada (12,496/402,569) 3.76% [⇓]
20/12/10 – World (1,579,100/69,418,464) 3.17% [⇓] / USA (296,836/15,829,017) 3.11% [⇓] / Canada (12,983/435,330) 3.58% [⇓]
20/12/14 – World (1,621,259/72,778,115) 3.08% [⇓] / USA (306,464/16,741,470) 3.05% [⇓] / Canada (13,431/460,743) 3.47% [⇓]
20/12/15 – World (1,631,067/73,337,911) 3.07% [⇓] / USA (308,091/16,943,897) 3.02% [⇓] / Canada (13,553/468,862) 3.45% [⇓]
20/12/16 – World (1,645,565/73,996,194) 3.07% [↭] / USA (311,225/17,155,985) 3.01% [⇓] / Canada (13,659/475,214) 3.42% [⇓]
20/12/17 – World (1,658,424/74,685,082) 3.06% [⇓] / USA (314,629/17,359,727) 3.00% [⇓] / Canada (13,799/481,630) 3.40% [⇓]
20/12/18 – World (1,671,447/75,455,362) 3.06% [↭] / USA (317,929/17,628,578) 3.00% [↭] / Canada (13,916/488,638) 3.37% [⇓]
20/12/19 – World (1,686,734/76,304,803) 3.06% [↭] / USA (321,025/17,899,267) 2.99% [⇓] / Canada (14,067/497,703) 3.34% [⇓]
20/12/20 – World (1,694,129/76,728,477) 3.05% [⇓] / USA (323,404/18,078,925) 2.98% [⇓] / Canada (14,154/501,594) 3.33% [⇓]
20/12/21 – World (1,701,797/77,274,430) 3.04% [⇓] / USA (324,869/18,267,579) 2.97% [⇓] / Canada (14,228/507,795) 3.30% [⇓]
20/12/22 – NO DATA ENTRY THIS DATE – Systems “issues”
20/12/23 – World (1,722,190/78,302,263) 3.03% [⇓] / USA (330,864/18,688,529) 2.93% [⇓] / Canada (14,425/521,509) 3.23% [⇓]
20/12/24 – World (1,740,719/79,206,175) 3.02% [⇓] / USA (334,239/18,919,461) 2.92% [⇓] / Canada (14,597/528,354) 3.22% [⇓]

***********************************************​

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 2,801 (YESTERDAY it was 2,806).

The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is above 2,600 for the first day since the beginning of May.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases is still dropping.

​

The number of deaths per day data has returned to acting “normally”.

​

How are the major nations coping? This chart, from Our World in Data

​

illustrates the relative growth rates of COVID-19 in those areas.

Europe IS in the midst of "The Second Wave" of COVID-19. Is the US in a "(First?) Second (Third?) Wave"? See the next block and draw your own conclusions.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S “WAVE(?)”CHARTS

***********************************************

Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)

​

The rolling "7 Day Average" death rate is now higher than it has been since the beginning of May (shortly after Mr. Trump announced that COVID-19 would "vanish in a couple of weeks”).

​

The rolling "10 Day Average of the 7 Day Averages" (which gives a much "cleaner" charting) death rate is now higher than it has been since the beginning of May (shortly after Mr. Trump announced that COVID-19 would "vanish in a couple of weeks").

​

The "New Cases per Day" numbers appear to have recovered from their lack of reliability caused by the Thanksgiving holiday. The daily average of new cases for the past 30 days is 204,617, for the past 10 days it is 217,799, and for the past five days it is 204,039.

Is this the “Second Wave” or the "Third Wave"? Will there be another? Will the US simply continue its (essentially) straight line path without leveling until the pandemic crests and crashes? Draw your own conclusions from the charts and the facts NOT from the latest version of the currently operative, officially sanctioned, "Team Trump" approved, White House issued, truth-of-the-day as delivered by the -ONAN- (oops, sorry, that's) OANN people.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 4A – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

GENERAL

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HOW IS YOUR STATE DOING?

HOW ARE THE "RED" AND "BLUE" STATES DOING?​

All base data is from Worldometer as of ~1400 on the date of posting.

NOTE – 1

The Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska data for recovered cases are out of date and there is no newer data available. The “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and “Recovered Rate” are unreliable for those states.​

*
NOTE – 2

The percentage [top chart at the bottom of the tables] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.​

First, the table sorted by "Blue States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]") and "Red States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]")

​

As you can see from the "Summary" table, BOTH the "Red States" and the "Blue States" have now moved into the blue "±5% of Average" zone on the "Deaths per Million" column. The "Red States" have moved into that zone from the green "LESS that 95% of Average" zone (for those who still believe that their "expert prediction of 10,300 ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM deaths is accurate, that means that their performance is getting worse)and the "Blue States" have moved into that zone from the red "MORE than 105% of Average" zone (for those who still believe that their "expert prediction of 10,300 ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM deaths is accurate, that means that their performance is getting better).

The “Red States” relative percentage of deaths has now moved from the (better than 5% less than the National Average) “Green Zone” and into the (±5% of National Average) “Blue Zone.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 4B – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

Cases per Million[/ size]

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Second, sorted by “Cases per Million” figures.

NONE of the states have a “Cases per Million” rate that is lower than the world average.

​

The "Red States" increase in "Cases per Million" continues at a faster pace than that of the "Blue States".

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 4C – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

Deaths per Million

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Third, sorted by “Deaths per Million” figures

​

The "Blue States" proportional percentage of "Deaths per Million" continues to decrease while the "Red States" proportional percentage of "Deaths per Million" continues to increase. At the current rates of change, the "Red States" will surpass the "Blue States" in terms of "Deaths per Million" in less than ONE week (and might be higher in terms of relative percentages of the US population by Inauguration Day.

​

The “Red States” relative percentage of deaths has now moved from the (better than 5% less than the National Average) “Green Zone” and into the (±5% of National Average) “Blue Zone. The "Deaths per Million" rates for the "Red States" (which are climbing) and the "Blue States" (which are falling) are now within 1.5 of each other.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 4D – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

Mortality Rate

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​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 5 – MORTALITY ODDS and SODS

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The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".

​

In the past 24 hours, the US (with approximately 4.24% of the world’s population) has had approximately 18.21% of the world’s COVID-19 deaths. That is a disparity of 4.30 :: 1 which would work out to a “Percentage Grade” of 23.28% (which is an “F”).

A more easily grasped illustration of what the "Daily Death Rate" is doing in the US is

​

However, that does NOT mean that the US has the highest “Deaths per Million” count of any country in the world. As you can plainly see, <SARC> since all of the countries with higher “Deaths per Million” counts than the US has have “Universal Healthcare Insurance” programs that is definitive proof that “Universal Healthcare Insurance” programs are ineffective and result in the deaths of millions because of their reliance on Death Panels to ration healthcare</SARC>

​

The rumour that Mr. Trump has given Bulgaria 26 F-35s and $23,000,000,000 in recognition of its successful efforts to make the performance of the United States of America look better is false.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

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Compare how the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” and an aggregated “World” are doing vis-à-vis each other.

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Projections based on the trends current as of the day of posting showing how COVID-19 is likely to progress, its likely total in its first year in the US, and comparing its effect with that of the “Spanish Flu”

​

COVID-19 is now the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 350,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 29 DEC 20 .

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If you want to see how likely a random person in the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” or an aggregated “World” is to die from COVID-19 (which is a combination of the answers to the questions “How likely am I to catch COVID-19?” and “If I do catch COVID-19, then how likely am I to die from it?”) this table shows you. It also shows how well the areas are doing in respect of their (per capita) relative abilities to pay for fighting COVID-19 and with respect to the (per capita) amount that they previously spent on supporting their healthcare systems.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 2 - DATA
(WITH ARROWS [for the graduates of the BS (Statistics) program at The University of Numerology])

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QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting) -

See “General Notes” for caveats as to accuracy of data and “Mortality Rate (Closed)” use.

20/09/30 – World (1,013,593/33,896,069) 3.87% [⇓] / USA (210,814/7,407,201) 4.34% [⇓] / Canada (9,291/156,961) 6.50% [⇓]
20/10/05 – World (1,042,616/35,444,476) 3.76% [⇓] / USA (214,626/7,637,864) 4.24% [⇓] / Canada (9,481/166,156) 6.33% [⇓]
20/10/10 – World (1,073,673/37,175,477) 3.70% [⇓] / USA (218,685/7,895,738) 4.14% [⇓] / Canada (9,585/178,117) 6.02% [⇓]
20/10/15 – World (1,098,143/38,832,219) 3.63% [⇓] / USA (221,895/8,156,124) 4.03% [⇓] / Canada (9,664/189,387) 5.72% [⇓]
20/10/20 – World (1,124,519/40,749,872) 3.57% [⇓] / USA (225,269/8,459,967) 3.93% [⇓] / Canada (9,778/201,437) 5.45% [⇓]
20/10/25 – World (1,156,181/43,055,448) 3.51% [⇓] / USA (230,086/8,831,449) 3.85% [⇓] / Canada (9,922/213,959) 5.23% [⇓]
20/10/30 – World (1,188,262/45,475,853) 3.47% [⇓] / USA (234,218/9,521,474) 3.77% [⇓] / Canada (10,074/228,542) 5.00% [⇓]
20/11/05 – World (1,233,212/48,588,813) 3.42% [⇓] / USA (239,842/9,802,374) 3.67% [⇓] / Canada (10,331/247,703) 4.78% [⇓]
20/11/10 – World (1,271,398/51,359,570) 3.40% [↭] / USA (244,449/10,422,026) 3.60% [⇓] / Canada (10,564/268,735) 4.61% [⇓]
20/11/15 – World (1,320,932/54,506,572) 3.36% [⇓] / USA (251,285/11,235,666) 3.52% [⇓] / Canada (10,891/291,931) 4.47% [⇓]
20/11/20 – World (1,368,622/57,394,073) 3.32% [↭] / USA (258,363/12,075,243) 3.44% [⇓] / Canada (11,265/315,754) 4.27% [⇓]
20/11/25 – World (1,417,896/60,242,064) 3.29% [↭] / USA (265,986/12,958,805) 3.36% [⇓] / Canada (11,618/342,444) 4.08% [⇓]
20/11/30 – World (1,467,511/63,199,555) 3.25% [⇓] / USA (273,126/13,753,146) 3.26% [⇓] / Canada (12,032/307,278) 3.93% [⇓]
20/12/05 – World (1,527,740/66,408,088) 3.22% [↭] / USA (285,786/14,784,826) 3.19% [⇓] / Canada (12,496/402,569) 3.76% [⇓]
20/12/10 – World (1,579,100/69,418,464) 3.17% [⇓] / USA (296,836/15,829,017) 3.11% [⇓] / Canada (12,983/435,330) 3.58% [⇓]
20/12/14 – World (1,621,259/72,778,115) 3.08% [⇓] / USA (306,464/16,741,470) 3.05% [⇓] / Canada (13,431/460,743) 3.47% [⇓]
20/12/15 – World (1,631,067/73,337,911) 3.07% [⇓] / USA (308,091/16,943,897) 3.02% [⇓] / Canada (13,553/468,862) 3.45% [⇓]
20/12/17 – World (1,658,424/74,685,082) 3.06% [⇓] / USA (314,629/17,359,727) 3.00% [⇓] / Canada (13,799/481,630) 3.40% [⇓]
20/12/18 – World (1,671,447/75,455,362) 3.06% [↭] / USA (317,929/17,628,578) 3.00% [↭] / Canada (13,916/488,638) 3.37% [⇓]
20/12/19 – World (1,686,734/76,304,803) 3.06% [↭] / USA (321,025/17,899,267) 2.99% [⇓] / Canada (14,067/497,703) 3.34% [⇓]
20/12/20 – World (1,694,129/76,728,477) 3.05% [⇓] / USA (323,404/18,078,925) 2.98% [⇓] / Canada (14,154/501,594) 3.33% [⇓]
20/12/21 – World (1,701,797/77,274,430) 3.04% [⇓] / USA (324,869/18,267,579) 2.97% [⇓] / Canada (14,228/507,795) 3.30% [⇓]
20/12/22 – NO DATA ENTRY THIS DATE – Systems “issues”
20/12/23 – World (1,722,190/78,302,263) 3.03% [⇓] / USA (330,864/18,688,529) 2.93% [⇓] / Canada (14,425/521,509) 3.23% [⇓]
20/12/24 – World (1,740,719/79,206,175) 3.02% [⇓] / USA (334,239/18,919,461) 2.92% [⇓] / Canada (14,597/528,354) 3.22% [⇓]
20/12/25 – World (1,751,877/79,864,734) 3.02% [↭] / USA (337,075/19,113,266) 2.92% [↭] / Canada (14,719/535,212) 3.21% [⇓]

***********************************************​

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 2,735 (YESTERDAY it was 2,801).

The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is above 2,600 for the second day in a row.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases is still dropping.

​

The number of deaths per day data has returned to acting “normally”.

​

How are the major nations coping? This chart, from Our World in Data

​

illustrates the relative growth rates of COVID-19 in those areas.

Europe IS in the midst of "The Second Wave" of COVID-19. Is the US in a "(First?) Second (Third?) Wave"? See the next block and draw your own conclusions.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S “WAVE(?)”CHARTS

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Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)

​

The rolling "7 Day Average" death rate is now higher than it has been since the beginning of May (shortly after Mr. Trump announced that COVID-19 would "vanish in a couple of weeks”).

​

The rolling "10 Day Average of the 7 Day Averages" (which gives a much "cleaner" charting) death rate is now higher than it has been since the beginning of May (shortly after Mr. Trump announced that COVID-19 would "vanish in a couple of weeks").

​

The "New Cases per Day" numbers appear to have recovered from their lack of reliability caused by the Thanksgiving holiday. The daily average of new cases for the past 30 days is 205,149, for the past 10 days it is 216,937, and for the past five days it is 206,868.



Is this the “Second Wave” or the "Third Wave"? Will there be another? Will the US simply continue its (essentially) straight line path without leveling until the pandemic crests and crashes? Draw your own conclusions from the charts and the facts NOT from the latest version of the currently operative, officially sanctioned, "Team Trump" approved, White House issued, truth-of-the-day as delivered by the -ONAN- (oops, sorry, that's) OANN people.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 4A – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

IN TABLES

***********************************************

HOW IS YOUR STATE DOING? ​

All base data is from Worldometer as of ~1400 on the date of posting.

NOTE – 1

The Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska data for recovered cases are out of date and there is no newer data available. The “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and “Recovered Rate” are unreliable for those states.​

*
NOTE – 2

The percentage [top chart at the bottom of the tables] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.​

First, the table sorted by "Blue States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]") and "Red States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]")

​

And then sorted by “Cases per Million”

​

And then sorted by “Deaths per Million”

​

Those are OK if you want to look up specific numbers, but they don’t actually show you what is happening over time. For that, see the next block.