Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19

[TU Curmudgeon]

[Graphic deleted]

Thanks for the chuckle.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

If you have any dispute/discussion regarding the statistics, please feel free to link back to the latest post in the NEW THREAD that you start so that we can debate what your dispute/discussion is.
(Please let me know by PM when you do so. Thanks.)
DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z the day of posting)

***********************************************

BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

​

NOTE 1 –

“Mortality Rate (All)” appears to bear a one to one correlation to “[Mortality Rate (Closed)] x [Clearance Rate]”. That means that it is likely that the _real_ mortality rate is the “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and only the differing lengths of time from diagnosis to death is obscuring that.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Asian” population percentages.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Racial” population percentages.​

***********************************************

​

COVID-19 is now the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 250,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 15 NOV 20 [ —].

***********************************************

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 2 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting) -
US figures are not accepted as completely reliable at this time.
The mortality rate reported is the mortality rate for CLOSED cases rather than for ALL cases as this appears to be a more accurate number.

20/09/15 – World (933,672/29,484,967) 4.20% [⇓] / USA (199,148/9,751,048) 4.71% [⇓] / Canada (9,179/138,010) 7.04% [⇓]
20/09/20 – World (962,074/31,024,659) 4.08% [⇓] / USA (203,844/6,968,918) 4.60% [⇓] / Canada (9,211/142,774) 6.90% [⇓]
20/09/25 – World )988,532/32,460,127) 3.96% [⇓] / USA (207,555/7,187,179) 4.47% [⇓] / Canada (9,249/149,094) 6.70% [⇓]
20/09/30 – World (1,013,593/33,896,069) 3.87% [⇓] / USA (210,814/7,407,201) 4.34% [⇓] / Canada (9,291/156,961) 6.50% [⇓]
20/10/05 – World (1,042,616/35,444,476) 3.76% [⇓] / USA (214,626/7,637,864) 4.24% [⇓] / Canada (9,481/166,156) 6.33% [⇓]
20/10/10 – World (1,073,673/37,175,477) 3.70% [⇓] / USA (218,685/7,895,738) 4.14% [⇓] / Canada (9,585/178,117) 6.02% [⇓]
20/10/15 – World (1,098,143/38,832,219) 3.63% [⇓] / USA (221,895/8,156,124) 4.03% [⇓] / Canada (9,664/189,387) 5.72% [⇓]
20/10/20 – World (1,124,519/40,749,872) 3.57% [⇓] / USA (225,269/8,459,967) 3.93% [⇓] / Canada (9,778/201,437) 5.45% [⇓]
20/10/25 – World (1,156,181/43,055,448) 3.51% [⇓] / USA (230,086/8,831,449) 3.85% [⇓] / Canada (9,922/213,959) 5.23% [⇓]
20/10/30 – World (1,188,262/45,475,853) 3.47% [⇓] / USA (234,218/9,521,474) 3.77% [⇓] / Canada (10,074/228,542) 5.00% [⇓]
20/11/01 – World (1,202,070/46,510,106) 3.46% [↔] / USA (236,101/9,404,823) 3.75% [⇓] / Canada (10,136/234,511) 4.92% [⇓]
20/11/02 – World (1,207,071/46,964,928) 3.44% [⇓] / USA (236,501/9,476,066) 3.73% [⇓] / Canada (10,179/236,841) 4.90% [⇓]
20/11/03 – World (1,213,709/47,477,330) 3.43% [⇓] / USA (237,031/9,571,007) 3.70% [⇓] / Canada (10,208/240,263) 4.85% [⇓]
20/11/04 – World (1,222,378/47,944,328) 3.43% [↔] / USA (238,656/9,694,176) 3.69% [⇓] / Canada (10,279/244,935) 4.81% [⇓]
20/11/05 – World (1,233,212/48,588,813) 3.42% [⇓] / USA (239,842/9,802,374) 3.67% [⇓] / Canada (10,331/247,703) 4.78% [⇓]
20/11/06 – World (1,242,308/49,207,942) 3.42% [↔] / USA (241,041/9,928,467) 3.66% [⇓] / Canada (10,381/251,338) 4.75% [⇓]
20/11/07 – World (1,251,645/49,846,492) 3.42% [↔] / USA (242,330/10,069,586) 3.65% [⇓] / Canada (10,436/255,809) 4.71% [⇓]
20/11/08 – World (1,258,235/50,395,239) 3.41% [⇓] / USA (243,290/10,186,081) 3.64% [⇓] / Canada (10,490/260,055) 4.69% [⇓]
20/11/09 – World (1,264,370/50,905,379) 3.40% [⇓] / USA (243,797/10,295,890) 3.62% [⇓] / Canada (10,522/264,113) 4.67% [⇓]
20/11/10 – World (1,271,398/51,359,570) 3.40% [↔] / USA (244,449/10,422,026) 3.60% [⇓] / Canada (10,564/268,735) 4.61% [⇓]

***********************************************​

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 1,060 (YESTERDAY it was 1,042).

The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is above 900 for the second day in a row.

IF the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, THEN the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US sometime in the fall of 2021. It appears that a “Fall Wave” has started.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases continues to drop.

​

This chart, from Our World in Data

​

illustrates the relative growth rates of COVID-19 in those areas. The evidence is now strong enough to establish that Europe IS in the midst of "The Second Wave" of COVID-19. The US continues to plod along on its essentially straight line increase and looks like it will soon lag Europe again. However, since Europe does have a record of getting a grip on COVID-19 and the US doesn't, that situation may reverse itself again.

HOWEVER, the best advice anyone can give you is



TAKE IT!​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S CHARTS

***********************************************

Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)



​

The Mortality Index chart has been moved to “Block 5” and is being replaced by a chart showing the “7 Day Average New US Cases” and “10 Day Average of 7 Day Averages”. The second measure produces a “cleaner” curve, but is somewhat “sluggish”.

​

Is there a “Third Wave” in the US? Draw your own conclusions from the charts.

EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)​

1. All employ a 30 day forward projection. (Thanks to “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.)
   *
2. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
3. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
4. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
5. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as of the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
6. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
7. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt or cherry-picking data, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 4 – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

HOW IS YOUR STATE DOING?

HOW ARE THE "RED" AND "BLUE" STATES DOING?​

There are a whole lot of posts comparing "State X" against "States A, B, and C" without any acknowledgement that there are actually 50 states. (This is known as "cherry picking data".)

All base data is from Worldometer as of ~1400 on the date of posting.

NOTES -

1. The Oregon data for recovered cases is out of date and there is no newer data available. The Oregon Mortality Rate and Recovered Rate are unreliable.
   *
2. The determination of which states are "Red" and which states are "Blue" is made by Vaughn's Summaries and is based on the 2016 election results. I'm more than willing to consider any intelligent and logical argument as to whether a specific state should be considered either a "Red" or a "Blue" state, but let's do that by PM - OK?
   *
3. The totals are lower than the totals on Worldometer because US colonial possessions are excluded and only the actual US states are considered.
   *
4. Since ALL of the states (and even the District of Columbia) about the only "cherry picking" you can accuse me of doing is leaving out the American colonies of American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. Please feel free to kvetch about that all you want.

First, the table sorted by "Blue States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]") and "Red States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]"):

​

and then sorted by “Cases per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

and then sorted by “Deaths per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 5 - ODDS and SODS

***********************************************​

The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".

​

Here’s how the “Red States” are doing vis-à-vis the “Blue States” with respect to “Mortality Rate (Closed)”

​

How does the number of tests related to the "Mortality Rate"? It doesn't, and I'm no longer going to be posting that table routinely.

The projection for the number of deaths in the first 12 months and the Spanish Flu comparison have been amalgamated into the “COVID-19 vs Other Causes of Death and are in Block 1.

In the past 24 hours, the US (with approximately 4.24% of the world’s population) has had approximately 8.26% of the world’s COVID-19 deaths.[/b] That is a disparity of 1.95 :: 1 which would work out to a “Percentage Grade” of 51.31% (which is an “F” [but still good enough to graduate from High School in many areas]).

However, that does NOT mean that the US has the highest “Deaths per Million” count of any country in the world.

..............\|||/ .............
..............(0 o) ..............
......,-------ooO-----------,....
......|…...PLEASE ........| ...
.........| ..DON'T FEED ...| ......
…......| .THE TROLLS ...| .......
.....'--------------Ooo----'....
.............|__|__| .............
..............|| ||..............
.............ooO Ooo.............
==============================================================​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

If you have any dispute/discussion regarding the statistics, please feel free to link back to the latest post in the NEW THREAD that you start so that we can debate what your dispute/discussion is.
(Please let me know by PM when you do so. Thanks.)
DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z the day of posting)

***********************************************

BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

​

NOTE 1 –

“Mortality Rate (All)” appears to bear a one to one correlation to “[Mortality Rate (Closed)] x [Clearance Rate]”. That means that it is likely that the _real_ mortality rate is the “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and only the differing lengths of time from diagnosis to death is obscuring that.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Asian” population percentages.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Racial” population percentages.​

***********************************************

​

COVID-19 is now the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 250,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 15 NOV 20 [ —].

***********************************************

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 2 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting) -
US figures are not accepted as completely reliable at this time.
The mortality rate reported is the mortality rate for CLOSED cases rather than for ALL cases as this appears to be a more accurate number.

20/09/15 – World (933,672/29,484,967) 4.20% [⇓] / USA (199,148/9,751,048) 4.71% [⇓] / Canada (9,179/138,010) 7.04% [⇓]
20/09/20 – World (962,074/31,024,659) 4.08% [⇓] / USA (203,844/6,968,918) 4.60% [⇓] / Canada (9,211/142,774) 6.90% [⇓]
20/09/25 – World )988,532/32,460,127) 3.96% [⇓] / USA (207,555/7,187,179) 4.47% [⇓] / Canada (9,249/149,094) 6.70% [⇓]
20/09/30 – World (1,013,593/33,896,069) 3.87% [⇓] / USA (210,814/7,407,201) 4.34% [⇓] / Canada (9,291/156,961) 6.50% [⇓]
20/10/05 – World (1,042,616/35,444,476) 3.76% [⇓] / USA (214,626/7,637,864) 4.24% [⇓] / Canada (9,481/166,156) 6.33% [⇓]
20/10/10 – World (1,073,673/37,175,477) 3.70% [⇓] / USA (218,685/7,895,738) 4.14% [⇓] / Canada (9,585/178,117) 6.02% [⇓]
20/10/15 – World (1,098,143/38,832,219) 3.63% [⇓] / USA (221,895/8,156,124) 4.03% [⇓] / Canada (9,664/189,387) 5.72% [⇓]
20/10/20 – World (1,124,519/40,749,872) 3.57% [⇓] / USA (225,269/8,459,967) 3.93% [⇓] / Canada (9,778/201,437) 5.45% [⇓]
20/10/25 – World (1,156,181/43,055,448) 3.51% [⇓] / USA (230,086/8,831,449) 3.85% [⇓] / Canada (9,922/213,959) 5.23% [⇓]
20/10/30 – World (1,188,262/45,475,853) 3.47% [⇓] / USA (234,218/9,521,474) 3.77% [⇓] / Canada (10,074/228,542) 5.00% [⇓]
20/11/02 – World (1,207,071/46,964,928) 3.44% [⇓] / USA (236,501/9,476,066) 3.73% [⇓] / Canada (10,179/236,841) 4.90% [⇓]
20/11/03 – World (1,213,709/47,477,330) 3.43% [⇓] / USA (237,031/9,571,007) 3.70% [⇓] / Canada (10,208/240,263) 4.85% [⇓]
20/11/04 – World (1,222,378/47,944,328) 3.43% [↔] / USA (238,656/9,694,176) 3.69% [⇓] / Canada (10,279/244,935) 4.81% [⇓]
20/11/05 – World (1,233,212/48,588,813) 3.42% [⇓] / USA (239,842/9,802,374) 3.67% [⇓] / Canada (10,331/247,703) 4.78% [⇓]
20/11/06 – World (1,242,308/49,207,942) 3.42% [↔] / USA (241,041/9,928,467) 3.66% [⇓] / Canada (10,381/251,338) 4.75% [⇓]
20/11/07 – World (1,251,645/49,846,492) 3.42% [↔] / USA (242,330/10,069,586) 3.65% [⇓] / Canada (10,436/255,809) 4.71% [⇓]
20/11/08 – World (1,258,235/50,395,239) 3.41% [⇓] / USA (243,290/10,186,081) 3.64% [⇓] / Canada (10,490/260,055) 4.69% [⇓]
20/11/09 – World (1,264,370/50,905,379) 3.40% [⇓] / USA (243,797/10,295,890) 3.62% [⇓] / Canada (10,522/264,113) 4.67% [⇓]
20/11/10 – World (1,271,398/51,359,570) 3.40% [↔] / USA (244,449/10,422,026) 3.60% [⇓] / Canada (10,564/268,735) 4.61% [⇓]
20/11/11 – World (1,283,608/52,061,163) 3.39% [⇓] / USA (246,034/10,579,938) 3.59% [⇓] / Canada (10,647/274,463) 4.57% [⇓]

***********************************************​

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 1,054 (YESTERDAY it was 1,060).

The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is above 900 for the third day in a row.

IF the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, THEN the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US sometime in the fall of 2021. It appears that a “Fall Wave” has started.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases continues to drop.

​

This chart, from Our World in Data

​

illustrates the relative growth rates of COVID-19 in those areas. The evidence is now strong enough to establish that Europe IS in the midst of "The Second Wave" of COVID-19. The US continues to plod along on its essentially straight line increase and looks like it will soon lag Europe again. However, since Europe does have a record of getting a grip on COVID-19 and the US doesn't, that situation may reverse itself again.

HOWEVER, the best advice anyone can give you is



TAKE IT!​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S CHARTS

***********************************************

Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)

​

The Mortality Index chart has been moved to “Block 5” and is being replaced by a chart showing the “7 Day Average New US Cases” and “10 Day Average of 7 Day Averages”. The second measure produces a “cleaner” curve, but is somewhat “sluggish”.

​

Is there a “Third Wave” in the US? Draw your own conclusions from the charts.

EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)​

1. All employ a 30 day forward projection. (Thanks to “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.)
   *
2. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
3. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
4. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
5. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as of the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
6. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
7. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt or cherry-picking data, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 4 – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

HOW IS YOUR STATE DOING?

HOW ARE THE "RED" AND "BLUE" STATES DOING?​

There are a whole lot of posts comparing "State X" against "States A, B, and C" without any acknowledgement that there are actually 50 states. (This is known as "cherry picking data".)

All base data is from Worldometer as of ~1400 on the date of posting.

NOTES -

1. The Oregon data for recovered cases is out of date and there is no newer data available. The Oregon Mortality Rate and Recovered Rate are unreliable.
   *
2. The determination of which states are "Red" and which states are "Blue" is made by Vaughn's Summaries and is based on the 2016 election results. I'm more than willing to consider any intelligent and logical argument as to whether a specific state should be considered either a "Red" or a "Blue" state, but let's do that by PM - OK?
   *
3. The totals are lower than the totals on Worldometer because US colonial possessions are excluded and only the actual US states are considered.
   *
4. Since ALL of the states (and even the District of Columbia) about the only "cherry picking" you can accuse me of doing is leaving out the American colonies of American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. Please feel free to kvetch about that all you want.

First, the table sorted by "Blue States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]") and "Red States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]"):

​

and then sorted by “Cases per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

and then sorted by “Deaths per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 5 - ODDS and SODS

***********************************************​

The "Mortality Index" chart (no longer routinely published) tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".

​

Here’s how the “Red States” are doing vis-à-vis the “Blue States” with respect to “Mortality Rate (Closed)”

​

How does the number of tests related to the "Mortality Rate"? It doesn't, and I'm no longer going to be posting that table routinely.

The projection for the number of deaths in the first 12 months and the Spanish Flu comparison have been amalgamated into the “COVID-19 vs Other Causes of Death and are in Block 1.

In the past 24 hours, the US (with approximately 4.24% of the world’s population) has had approximately 12.59% of the world’s COVID-19 deaths.[/b] That is a disparity of 3.06 :: 1 which would work out to a “Percentage Grade” of 32.61% (which is an “F”).

However, that does NOT mean that the US has the highest “Deaths per Million” count of any country in the world.

..............\|||/ .............
..............(0 o) ..............
......,-------ooO-----------,....
......|…...PLEASE ........| ...
.........| ..DON'T FEED ...| ......
…......| .THE TROLLS ...| .......
.....'--------------Ooo----'....
.............|__|__| .............
..............|| ||..............
.............ooO Ooo.............
==============================================================​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

If you have any dispute/discussion regarding the statistics, please feel free to link back to the latest post in the NEW THREAD that you start so that we can debate what your dispute/discussion is.
(Please let me know by PM when you do so. Thanks.)
DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z the day of posting)

***********************************************

BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

​

NOTE 1 –

“Mortality Rate (All)” appears to bear a one to one correlation to “[Mortality Rate (Closed)] x [Clearance Rate]”. That means that it is likely that the _real_ mortality rate is the “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and only the differing lengths of time from diagnosis to death is obscuring that.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Asian” population percentages.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Racial” population percentages.​

***********************************************

​

COVID-19 is now the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 250,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 14 NOV 20 [⇓ ].

***********************************************

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 2 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting) -
US figures are not accepted as completely reliable at this time.
The mortality rate reported is the mortality rate for CLOSED cases rather than for ALL cases as this appears to be a more accurate number.

20/09/15 – World (933,672/29,484,967) 4.20% [⇓] / USA (199,148/9,751,048) 4.71% [⇓] / Canada (9,179/138,010) 7.04% [⇓]
20/09/20 – World (962,074/31,024,659) 4.08% [⇓] / USA (203,844/6,968,918) 4.60% [⇓] / Canada (9,211/142,774) 6.90% [⇓]
20/09/25 – World )988,532/32,460,127) 3.96% [⇓] / USA (207,555/7,187,179) 4.47% [⇓] / Canada (9,249/149,094) 6.70% [⇓]
20/09/30 – World (1,013,593/33,896,069) 3.87% [⇓] / USA (210,814/7,407,201) 4.34% [⇓] / Canada (9,291/156,961) 6.50% [⇓]
20/10/05 – World (1,042,616/35,444,476) 3.76% [⇓] / USA (214,626/7,637,864) 4.24% [⇓] / Canada (9,481/166,156) 6.33% [⇓]
20/10/10 – World (1,073,673/37,175,477) 3.70% [⇓] / USA (218,685/7,895,738) 4.14% [⇓] / Canada (9,585/178,117) 6.02% [⇓]
20/10/15 – World (1,098,143/38,832,219) 3.63% [⇓] / USA (221,895/8,156,124) 4.03% [⇓] / Canada (9,664/189,387) 5.72% [⇓]
20/10/20 – World (1,124,519/40,749,872) 3.57% [⇓] / USA (225,269/8,459,967) 3.93% [⇓] / Canada (9,778/201,437) 5.45% [⇓]
20/10/25 – World (1,156,181/43,055,448) 3.51% [⇓] / USA (230,086/8,831,449) 3.85% [⇓] / Canada (9,922/213,959) 5.23% [⇓]
20/10/30 – World (1,188,262/45,475,853) 3.47% [⇓] / USA (234,218/9,521,474) 3.77% [⇓] / Canada (10,074/228,542) 5.00% [⇓]
20/11/03 – World (1,213,709/47,477,330) 3.43% [⇓] / USA (237,031/9,571,007) 3.70% [⇓] / Canada (10,208/240,263) 4.85% [⇓]
20/11/04 – World (1,222,378/47,944,328) 3.43% [↔] / USA (238,656/9,694,176) 3.69% [⇓] / Canada (10,279/244,935) 4.81% [⇓]
20/11/05 – World (1,233,212/48,588,813) 3.42% [⇓] / USA (239,842/9,802,374) 3.67% [⇓] / Canada (10,331/247,703) 4.78% [⇓]
20/11/06 – World (1,242,308/49,207,942) 3.42% [↔] / USA (241,041/9,928,467) 3.66% [⇓] / Canada (10,381/251,338) 4.75% [⇓]
20/11/07 – World (1,251,645/49,846,492) 3.42% [↔] / USA (242,330/10,069,586) 3.65% [⇓] / Canada (10,436/255,809) 4.71% [⇓]
20/11/08 – World (1,258,235/50,395,239) 3.41% [⇓] / USA (243,290/10,186,081) 3.64% [⇓] / Canada (10,490/260,055) 4.69% [⇓]
20/11/09 – World (1,264,370/50,905,379) 3.40% [⇓] / USA (243,797/10,295,890) 3.62% [⇓] / Canada (10,522/264,113) 4.67% [⇓]
20/11/10 – World (1,271,398/51,359,570) 3.40% [↔] / USA (244,449/10,422,026) 3.60% [⇓] / Canada (10,564/268,735) 4.61% [⇓]
20/11/11 – World (1,283,608/52,061,163) 3.39% [⇓] / USA (246,034/10,579,938) 3.59% [⇓] / Canada (10,647/274,463) 4.57% [⇓]
20/11/12 – World (1,291,091/52,525,970) 3.40 [⇑] / USA (247,398/10,708,728) 3.59% [↔] / Canada (10,685/277,061 4.57% [↔]

***********************************************​

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 1,079 (YESTERDAY it was 1,054).

The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is above 900 for the fourth day in a row – and looks like it will reach 1,000 tomorrow or the next day.

IF the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, THEN the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US sometime in the fall of 2021. It appears that a “Fall Wave” has started.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases continues to drop.

​

This chart, from Our World in Data

​

illustrates the relative growth rates of COVID-19 in those areas. The evidence is now strong enough to establish that Europe IS in the midst of "The Second Wave" of COVID-19. The US continues to plod along on its essentially straight line increase and looks like it will soon lag Europe again. However, since Europe does have a record of getting a grip on COVID-19 and the US doesn't, that situation may reverse itself again.

HOWEVER, the best advice anyone can give you is



TAKE IT!​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S CHARTS

***********************************************

Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)



​

The Mortality Index chart has been moved to “Block 5” and is being replaced by a chart showing the “7 Day Average New US Cases” and “10 Day Average of 7 Day Averages”. The second measure produces a “cleaner” curve, but is somewhat “sluggish”.

​

Is there a “Third Wave” in the US? Draw your own conclusions from the charts.

EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)​

1. All employ a 30 day forward projection. (Thanks to “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.)
   *
2. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
3. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
4. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
5. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as of the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
6. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
7. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt or cherry-picking data, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 4 – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

HOW IS YOUR STATE DOING?

HOW ARE THE "RED" AND "BLUE" STATES DOING?​

There are a whole lot of posts comparing "State X" against "States A, B, and C" without any acknowledgement that there are actually 50 states. (This is known as "cherry picking data".)

All base data is from Worldometer as of ~1400 on the date of posting.

NOTES -

1. The Oregon data for recovered cases is out of date and there is no newer data available. The Oregon Mortality Rate and Recovered Rate are unreliable.
   *
2. The determination of which states are "Red" and which states are "Blue" is made by Vaughn's Summaries and is based on the 2016 election results. I'm more than willing to consider any intelligent and logical argument as to whether a specific state should be considered either a "Red" or a "Blue" state, but let's do that by PM - OK?
   *
3. The totals are lower than the totals on Worldometer because US colonial possessions are excluded and only the actual US states are considered.
   *
4. Since ALL of the states (and even the District of Columbia) about the only "cherry picking" you can accuse me of doing is leaving out the American colonies of American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. Please feel free to kvetch about that all you want.

First, the table sorted by "Blue States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]") and "Red States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]"):

​

and then sorted by “Cases per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

and then sorted by “Deaths per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 5 - ODDS and SODS

***********************************************​

The "Mortality Index" chart (no longer routinely published) tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".

​

Here’s how the “Red States” are doing vis-à-vis the “Blue States” with respect to “Mortality Rate (Closed)”

​

How does the number of tests related to the "Mortality Rate"? It doesn't, and I'm no longer going to be posting that table routinely.

The projection for the number of deaths in the first 12 months and the Spanish Flu comparison have been amalgamated into the “COVID-19 vs Other Causes of Death and are in Block 1.

In the past 24 hours, the US (with approximately 4.24% of the world’s population) has had approximately 18.23% of the world’s COVID-19 deaths.[/b] That is a disparity of 4.31 :: 1 which would work out to a “Percentage Grade” of 23.26% (which is an “F”).

However, that does NOT mean that the US has the highest “Deaths per Million” count of any country in the world.

..............\|||/ .............
..............(0 o) ..............
......,-------ooO-----------,....
......|…...PLEASE ........| ...
.........| ..DON'T FEED ...| ......
…......| .THE TROLLS ...| .......
.....'--------------Ooo----'....
.............|__|__| .............
..............|| ||..............
.............ooO Ooo.............
==============================================================​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

GENERAL NOTES

If you have any dispute/discussion regarding the statistics, please feel free to link back to the latest post in the NEW THREAD that you start so that we can debate what your dispute/discussion is.
DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z the day of posting) except where noted.​

NOTE 1 –

“Mortality Rate (All)” appears to bear a one to one correlation to “[Mortality Rate (Closed)] x [Clearance Rate]”. That means that it is likely that the _real_ mortality rate is the “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and only the differing lengths of time from diagnosis to death is obscuring that.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Asian” population percentages.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Racial” population percentages.​

NOTE 3 –

The Mortality Index chart has been moved to “Block 5” and is being replaced by a chart showing the “7 Day Average New US Cases” and “10 Day Average of 7 Day Averages”. The second measure produces a “cleaner” curve, but is somewhat “sluggish”.​

SPECIAL EXPLANATORY NOTE 4 FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS (who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)

1. All charts employ a 30 day forward projection. (Thanks to “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.)
   *
2. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
3. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
4. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
5. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as of the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
6. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
7. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt or cherry-picking data, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

NOTE 5 – SPECIAL NOTES REGARDING TABLES AND GRAPHS CONCERNING U.S. STATES

1. There are a whole lot of posts comparing "State X" against "States A, B, and C" without any acknowledgement that there are actually 50 states. (This is known as "cherry picking data".)
   *
2. The determination of which states are "Red" and which states are "Blue" is made by Vaughn's Summaries and is based on the 2016 election results.
   *
3. The totals are lower than the totals on Worldometer because US colonial possessions are excluded and only the actual US states are considered.
   *
4. Since ALL of the states (and even the District of Columbia) about the only "cherry picking" you can accuse me of doing is leaving out the American colonies of American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands.

NOTE 6 –

How does the number of tests related to the "Mortality Rate"? It doesn't, and I'm no longer going to be posting that table routinely.​

NOTE 7 –

How does the NATIONAL “Population Density” relate to either the “Infection Rate” or the "Mortality Rate"? It doesn't, (with respect to specified areas inside countries it does, but I simply don’t have the facilities to deal with THAT much nitpicking) and I'm no longer going to be posting that table routinely.​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************​

Compare how the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” and an aggregated “World” are doing vis-à-vis each other.

***********************************************​

Projections based on the trends current as of the day of posting showing how COVID-19 is likely to progress, its likely total in its first year in the US, and comparing its effect with that of the “Spanish Flu”

​

COVID-19 is now the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 250,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 14 NOV 20 [ ↔ ].

***********************************************​

If you want to see how likely a random person in the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” or an aggregated “World” is to die from COVID-19 (which is a combination of the answers to the questions “How likely am I to catch COVID-19?” and “If I do catch COVID-19, then how likely am I to die from it?”) this table shows you. It also shows how well the areas are doing in respect of their (per capita) relative abilities to pay for fighting COVID-19 and with respect to the (per capita) amount that they previously spent on supporting their healthcare systems.

[INSERT xA3 – Comparison of Ratios here]​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 2 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting) -

See “General Notes” for caveats as to accuracy of data and “Mortality Rate (Closed)” use.

20/09/15 – World (933,672/29,484,967) 4.20% [⇓] / USA (199,148/9,751,048) 4.71% [⇓] / Canada (9,179/138,010) 7.04% [⇓]
20/09/20 – World (962,074/31,024,659) 4.08% [⇓] / USA (203,844/6,968,918) 4.60% [⇓] / Canada (9,211/142,774) 6.90% [⇓]
20/09/25 – World )988,532/32,460,127) 3.96% [⇓] / USA (207,555/7,187,179) 4.47% [⇓] / Canada (9,249/149,094) 6.70% [⇓]
20/09/30 – World (1,013,593/33,896,069) 3.87% [⇓] / USA (210,814/7,407,201) 4.34% [⇓] / Canada (9,291/156,961) 6.50% [⇓]
20/10/05 – World (1,042,616/35,444,476) 3.76% [⇓] / USA (214,626/7,637,864) 4.24% [⇓] / Canada (9,481/166,156) 6.33% [⇓]
20/10/10 – World (1,073,673/37,175,477) 3.70% [⇓] / USA (218,685/7,895,738) 4.14% [⇓] / Canada (9,585/178,117) 6.02% [⇓]
20/10/15 – World (1,098,143/38,832,219) 3.63% [⇓] / USA (221,895/8,156,124) 4.03% [⇓] / Canada (9,664/189,387) 5.72% [⇓]
20/10/20 – World (1,124,519/40,749,872) 3.57% [⇓] / USA (225,269/8,459,967) 3.93% [⇓] / Canada (9,778/201,437) 5.45% [⇓]
20/10/25 – World (1,156,181/43,055,448) 3.51% [⇓] / USA (230,086/8,831,449) 3.85% [⇓] / Canada (9,922/213,959) 5.23% [⇓]
20/10/30 – World (1,188,262/45,475,853) 3.47% [⇓] / USA (234,218/9,521,474) 3.77% [⇓] / Canada (10,074/228,542) 5.00% [⇓]
20/11/03 – World (1,213,709/47,477,330) 3.43% [⇓] / USA (237,031/9,571,007) 3.70% [⇓] / Canada (10,208/240,263) 4.85% [⇓]
20/11/04 – World (1,222,378/47,944,328) 3.43% [↔] / USA (238,656/9,694,176) 3.69% [⇓] / Canada (10,279/244,935) 4.81% [⇓]
20/11/05 – World (1,233,212/48,588,813) 3.42% [⇓] / USA (239,842/9,802,374) 3.67% [⇓] / Canada (10,331/247,703) 4.78% [⇓]
20/11/06 – World (1,242,308/49,207,942) 3.42% [↔] / USA (241,041/9,928,467) 3.66% [⇓] / Canada (10,381/251,338) 4.75% [⇓]
20/11/07 – World (1,251,645/49,846,492) 3.42% [↔] / USA (242,330/10,069,586) 3.65% [⇓] / Canada (10,436/255,809) 4.71% [⇓]
20/11/08 – World (1,258,235/50,395,239) 3.41% [⇓] / USA (243,290/10,186,081) 3.64% [⇓] / Canada (10,490/260,055) 4.69% [⇓]
20/11/09 – World (1,264,370/50,905,379) 3.40% [⇓] / USA (243,797/10,295,890) 3.62% [⇓] / Canada (10,522/264,113) 4.67% [⇓]
20/11/10 – World (1,271,398/51,359,570) 3.40% [↔] / USA (244,449/10,422,026) 3.60% [⇓] / Canada (10,564/268,735) 4.61% [⇓]
20/11/11 – World (1,283,608/52,061,163) 3.39% [⇓] / USA (246,034/10,579,938) 3.59% [⇓] / Canada (10,647/274,463) 4.57% [⇓]
20/11/12 – World (1,291,091/52,525,970) 3.40 [⇑] / USA (247,398/10,708,728) 3.59% [↔] / Canada (10,685/277,061 4.57% [↔]
20/11/13 – World (1,302,072/53,256,312) 3.37% [⇓] / USA (248,635/10,880,282) 3.56% [⇓] / Canada (10,768/282,577) 4.53% [⇓]

***********************************************​

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 1,085 (YESTERDAY it was 1,079).

The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is above 900 for the fifth day in a row – and looks like it will reach 1,000 tomorrow or the next day (it was 999 today).

IF the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, THEN the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US sometime in the fall of 2021. It appears that a “Fall Wave” has started.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases continues to drop.

​

This chart, from Our World in Data

​

illustrates the relative growth rates of COVID-19 in those areas.

The evidence is now strong enough to establish that Europe IS in the midst of "The Second Wave" of COVID-19. The US continues to plod along on its essentially straight line increase and looks like it will soon lag Europe again. However, since Europe does have a record of getting a grip on COVID-19 and the US doesn't, that situation may reverse itself again.

HOWEVER, the best advice anyone can give you is



TAKE IT!​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S CHARTS

***********************************************

Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)

Is there a “Third Wave” in the US?
Draw your own conclusions from the charts.







​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 4 – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

HOW IS YOUR STATE DOING?

HOW ARE THE "RED" AND "BLUE" STATES DOING?​

All base data is from Worldometer as of ~1400 on the date of posting.

NOTE – 1

The Oregon data for recovered cases is out of date and there is no newer data available. The Oregon Mortality Rate and Recovered Rate are unreliable.​

*
NOTE – 2

The percentage [top chart at the bottom of the tables] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.​

First, the table sorted by "Blue States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]") and "Red States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]"):

​

and then sorted by “Cases per Million” figures.

​

and then sorted by “Deaths per Million” figures

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 5 - ODDS and SODS

***********************************************​

The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".

​

Here’s how the “Red States” are doing vis-à-vis the “Blue States” with respect to “Mortality Rate (Closed)”

​

In the past 24 hours, the US (with approximately 4.24% of the world’s population) has had approximately 11.20% of the world’s COVID-19 deaths.[/b] That is a disparity of 2.66 :: 1 which would work out to a “Percentage Grade” of 37.46% (which is an “F”).

However, that does NOT mean that the US has the highest “Deaths per Million” count of any country in the world.

..............\|||/ .............
..............(0 o) ..............
......,-------ooO-----------,....
......|…...PLEASE ........| ...
.........| ..DON'T FEED ...| ......
…......| .THE TROLLS ...| .......
.....'--------------Ooo----'....
.............|__|__| .............
..............|| ||..............
.............ooO Ooo.............
==============================================================​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************​

Compare how the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” and an aggregated “World” are doing vis-à-vis each other.

***********************************************​

Projections based on the trends current as of the day of posting showing how COVID-19 is likely to progress, its likely total in its first year in the US, and comparing its effect with that of the “Spanish Flu”

​

COVID-19 is now the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 300,000 –
[NEW UPDATE]​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 29 DEC 20 [ ↔ ].

***********************************************​

If you want to see how likely a random person in the “G-8+China” group, an aggregated “Europe” or an aggregated “World” is to die from COVID-19 (which is a combination of the answers to the questions “How likely am I to catch COVID-19?” and “If I do catch COVID-19, then how likely am I to die from it?”) this table shows you. It also shows how well the areas are doing in respect of their (per capita) relative abilities to pay for fighting COVID-19 and with respect to the (per capita) amount that they previously spent on supporting their healthcare systems.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 2 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting) -

See “General Notes” for caveats as to accuracy of data and “Mortality Rate (Closed)” use.

20/09/15 – World (933,672/29,484,967) 4.20% [⇓] / USA (199,148/9,751,048) 4.71% [⇓] / Canada (9,179/138,010) 7.04% [⇓]
20/09/20 – World (962,074/31,024,659) 4.08% [⇓] / USA (203,844/6,968,918) 4.60% [⇓] / Canada (9,211/142,774) 6.90% [⇓]
20/09/25 – World )988,532/32,460,127) 3.96% [⇓] / USA (207,555/7,187,179) 4.47% [⇓] / Canada (9,249/149,094) 6.70% [⇓]
20/09/30 – World (1,013,593/33,896,069) 3.87% [⇓] / USA (210,814/7,407,201) 4.34% [⇓] / Canada (9,291/156,961) 6.50% [⇓]
20/10/05 – World (1,042,616/35,444,476) 3.76% [⇓] / USA (214,626/7,637,864) 4.24% [⇓] / Canada (9,481/166,156) 6.33% [⇓]
20/10/10 – World (1,073,673/37,175,477) 3.70% [⇓] / USA (218,685/7,895,738) 4.14% [⇓] / Canada (9,585/178,117) 6.02% [⇓]
20/10/15 – World (1,098,143/38,832,219) 3.63% [⇓] / USA (221,895/8,156,124) 4.03% [⇓] / Canada (9,664/189,387) 5.72% [⇓]
20/10/20 – World (1,124,519/40,749,872) 3.57% [⇓] / USA (225,269/8,459,967) 3.93% [⇓] / Canada (9,778/201,437) 5.45% [⇓]
20/10/25 – World (1,156,181/43,055,448) 3.51% [⇓] / USA (230,086/8,831,449) 3.85% [⇓] / Canada (9,922/213,959) 5.23% [⇓]
20/10/30 – World (1,188,262/45,475,853) 3.47% [⇓] / USA (234,218/9,521,474) 3.77% [⇓] / Canada (10,074/228,542) 5.00% [⇓]
20/11/03 – World (1,213,709/47,477,330) 3.43% [⇓] / USA (237,031/9,571,007) 3.70% [⇓] / Canada (10,208/240,263) 4.85% [⇓]
20/11/04 – World (1,222,378/47,944,328) 3.43% [↔] / USA (238,656/9,694,176) 3.69% [⇓] / Canada (10,279/244,935) 4.81% [⇓]
20/11/05 – World (1,233,212/48,588,813) 3.42% [⇓] / USA (239,842/9,802,374) 3.67% [⇓] / Canada (10,331/247,703) 4.78% [⇓]
20/11/06 – World (1,242,308/49,207,942) 3.42% [↔] / USA (241,041/9,928,467) 3.66% [⇓] / Canada (10,381/251,338) 4.75% [⇓]
20/11/07 – World (1,251,645/49,846,492) 3.42% [↔] / USA (242,330/10,069,586) 3.65% [⇓] / Canada (10,436/255,809) 4.71% [⇓]
20/11/08 – World (1,258,235/50,395,239) 3.41% [⇓] / USA (243,290/10,186,081) 3.64% [⇓] / Canada (10,490/260,055) 4.69% [⇓]
20/11/09 – World (1,264,370/50,905,379) 3.40% [⇓] / USA (243,797/10,295,890) 3.62% [⇓] / Canada (10,522/264,113) 4.67% [⇓]
20/11/10 – World (1,271,398/51,359,570) 3.40% [↔] / USA (244,449/10,422,026) 3.60% [⇓] / Canada (10,564/268,735) 4.61% [⇓]
20/11/11 – World (1,283,608/52,061,163) 3.39% [⇓] / USA (246,034/10,579,938) 3.59% [⇓] / Canada (10,647/274,463) 4.57% [⇓]
20/11/12 – World (1,291,091/52,525,970) 3.40 [⇑] / USA (247,398/10,708,728) 3.59% [↔] / Canada (10,685/277,061 4.57% [↔]
20/11/13 – World (1,302,072/53,256,312) 3.37% [⇓] / USA (248,635/10,880,282) 3.56% [⇓] / Canada (10,768/282,577) 4.53% [⇓]
20/11/14 – World (1,311,712/53,866,115) 3.37% [↔] / USA (249.998/11,066,546) 3.55% [⇓] / Canada (10,828/287,318) 4.48% [⇓]

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The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 1,095 (YESTERDAY it was 1,085).

The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is above 1,000 for the first day since 04 SEP 20.

IF the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, THEN the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US sometime in the fall of 2021. It appears that a “Fall Wave” has started.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases continues to drop.

​

This chart, from Our World in Data

​

illustrates the relative growth rates of COVID-19 in those areas.

The evidence is now strong enough to establish that Europe IS in the midst of "The Second Wave" of COVID-19. The US continues to plod along on its essentially straight line increase and looks like it will soon lag Europe again. However, since Europe does have a record of getting a grip on COVID-19 and the US doesn't, that situation may reverse itself again.

HOWEVER, the best advice anyone can give you is



TAKE IT!​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S CHARTS

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Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)





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Is there a “Third Wave” in the US? Draw your own conclusions from the charts.