Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19

[TU Curmudgeon]

If you have any dispute/discussion regarding the statistics, please feel free to link back to the latest post in the NEW THREAD that you start so that we can debate what your dispute/discussion is.
(Please let me know by PM when you do so. Thanks.)
DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z the day of posting)

***********************************************

BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

​

NOTE 1 –

“Mortality Rate (All)” appears to bear a one to one correlation to “[Mortality Rate (Closed)] x [Clearance Rate]”. That means that it is likely that the _real_ mortality rate is the “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and only the differing lengths of time from diagnosis to death is obscuring that.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Asian” population percentages.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Racial” population percentages.​

***********************************************

​

COVID-19 is now the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 250,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 18 NOV 20 [⇓]].

***********************************************

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 2 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting) -
US figures are not accepted as completely reliable at this time.
The mortality rate reported is the mortality rate for CLOSED cases rather than for ALL cases as this appears to be a more accurate number.

20/09/15 – World (933,672/29,484,967) 4.20% [▼] / USA (199,148/9,751,048) 4.71% [▼] / Canada (9,179/138,010) 7.04% [▼]
20/09/20 – World (962,074/31,024,659) 4.08% [▼] / USA (203,844/6,968,918) 4.60% [▼] / Canada (9,211/142,774) 6.90% [▼]
20/09/25 – World )988,532/32,460,127) 3.96% [▼] / USA (207,555/7,187,179) 4.47% [▼] / Canada (9,249/149,094) 6.70% [▼]
20/09/30 – World (1,013,593/33,896,069) 3.87% [▼] / USA (210,814/7,407,201) 4.34% [▼] / Canada (9,291/156,961) 6.50% [▼]
20/10/05 – World (1,042,616/35,444,476) 3.76% [▼] / USA (214,626/7,637,864) 4.24% [▼] / Canada (9,481/166,156) 6.33% [▼]
20/10/10 – World (1,073,673/37,175,477) 3.70% [▼] / USA (218,685/7,895,738) 4.14% [▼] / Canada (9,585/178,117) 6.02% [▼]
20/10/15 – World (1,098,143/38,832,219) 3.63% [▼] / USA (221,895/8,156,124) 4.03% [▼] / Canada (9,664/189,387) 5.72% [▼]
20/10/16 – World (1,104,206/39,262,367) 3.62% [▼] / USA (222,781/8,219,831) 4.02% [▼] / Canada (9,699/191,732) 5.67% [▼]
20/10/17 – World (1,110,536/39,583,238) 3.60% [▼] / USA (223,695/8,291,779) 3.98% [▼] / Canada (9,722/194,106) 5.61% [▼]
20/10/18 – World (1.115.898/40.055.705) 3.59% [▼] / USA (224,295/8,345,317) 3.97% [▼] / Canada (9,746/196,321) 5.56% [▼]
20/10/19 – World (1,119,568/40,373,228) 3.58% [▼] / USA (224,756/8,388,728) 3.96% [▼] / Canada (9,760/198,148) 5.52% [▼]
20/10/20 – World (1,124,519/40,749,872) 3.57% [▼] / USA (225,269/8,459,967) 3.93% [▼] / Canada (9,778/201,437) 5.45% [▼]
20/10/21 – World (1,131,329/41,169,789) 3.55% [▼] / USA (226,273/8,524,139) 3.92% [▼] / Canada (9,794/203,688) 5.40% [▼]
20/10/22 – World (1,137,722/41,573,741) 3.54% [▼] / USA (227,419/8,585,748) 3.90% [▼] / Canada (9,829/206,360) 5.35% [▼]
20/10/23 – World (1,144595/42,133,698) 3.53% [▼] / USA (228,466/8,668,572) 3.88% [▼] / Canada (9,862/209,148) 5.31% [▼]
20/10/24 – World (1,150,684/42,579,308) 3.53% [↔] / USA (229,317/8,752,121) 3.87% [▼] / Canada (9,888/211,570) 5.27% [▼]
20/10/25 – World (1,156,181/43,055,448) 3.51% [▼] / USA (230,086/8,831,449) 3.85% [▼] / Canada (9,922/213,959) 5.23% [▼]
20/10/26 – World (1,160,650/43,467,345) 3.50% [▼] / USA (230,523/8,893,737) 3.84% [▼] / Canada (9,952/216,955) 5.18% [▼]

***********************************************​

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 824 (YESTERDAY it was 803).

The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” has been below 800 for four weeks.

IF the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, THEN the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US in the fall of 2021. It appears that a “Fall Wave” might have started.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases continues to drop.

​

In relation to their relative abilities to pay (PPP GDP per capita is used as an indicator of ability to pay) and healthcare spending per capita all countries in the “G-8 + China + (aggregated) Europe + (aggregated) World” are doing at least 5% better than the US is in coping with COVID-19 deaths. However the UK appears to be having difficulty keeping outside that window.

This chart, from Our World in Data

​

illustrates the relative growth rates of COVID-19 in those areas.

HOWEVER, the best advice anyone can give you is



TAKE IT!​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S CHARTS

***********************************************

Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)





​

The charts APPEAR to show that a “third wave” might have started in the US.

EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)​

1. The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".
   *
2. All employ a 30 day forward projection. (Thanks to “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.)
   *
3. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
4. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
5. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
6. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as of the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
7. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
8. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt or cherry-picking data, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 4 – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

HOW IS YOUR STATE DOING?

HOW ARE THE "RED" AND "BLUE" STATES DOING?​

There are a whole lot of posts comparing "State X" against "States A, B, and C" without any acknowledgement that there are actually 50 states. (This is known as "cherry picking data".)

All base data is from Worldometer as of ~1400 on the date of posting.

NOTES -

1. There was a systematic error in the calculations for "Mortality Rate (Closed). This error has been located and corrected. The error did NOT affect the relative rankings of the several states.
   *
2. The Oregon data for recovered cases is out of date and there is no newer data available. The Oregon Mortality Rate and Recovered Rate are unreliable.
   *
3. The determination of which states are "Red" and which states are "Blue" is made by Vaughn's Summaries and is based on the 2016 election results. I'm more than willing to consider any intelligent and logical argument as to whether a specific state should be considered either a "Red" or a "Blue" state, but let's do that by PM - OK?
   *
4. The totals are lower than the totals on Worldometer because US colonial possessions are excluded and only the actual US states are considered.
   *
5. Since ALL of the states (and even the District of Columbia) about the only "cherry picking" you can accuse me of doing is leaving out the American colonies of American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. Please feel free to kvetch about that all you want.

First, the table sorted by "Blue States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]") and "Red States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]"):

​

and then sorted by “Cases per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

and then sorted by “Deaths per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 5 - ODDS and SODS

***********************************************​

A summary of how the "Red States" are doing vis-a-vis the "Blue States"

​

How does the number of tests related to the "Mortality Rate"? It doesn't, and I'm no longer going to be posting that table routinely.

Instead what I will be posting is the projection of the number of deaths in the 365 days from the first COVID-19 in the US. As usual, that projection is based on the data as they are as of the date of posting and the assumption that the trends current as of the date of posting. If either the data or the trends change, then the projection is also going to change.

​

What are today's "Spot Death Numbers"?

​

In the past 24 hours, the US (with approximately 4.24% of the world’s population) has had approximately 9.78% of the world’s COVID-19 deaths. That is a disparity of 2.31 :: 1 which would work out to a “Percentage Grade” of 43.46%.

[NOTE - Because these numbers are based on only two data points they are essentially useless for analysis, but some people think that they are important so I include them. If today's "Spot" New Deaths per New Cases Ratio vs USA is (as an example) 1:2.345, then that means that for every one death/new case in the relevant country, there were 2.345 deaths/new case in the US. The numbers in this table are VERY "frisky" so don't get all bent out of shape over them.]

..............\|||/ .............
..............(0 o) ..............
......,-------ooO-----------,....
......|…...PLEASE ........| ...
.........| ..DON'T FEED ...| ......
…......| .THE TROLLS ...| .......
.....'--------------Ooo----'....
.............|__|__| .............
..............|| ||..............
.............ooO Ooo............. ​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

If you have any dispute/discussion regarding the statistics, please feel free to link back to the latest post in the NEW THREAD that you start so that we can debate what your dispute/discussion is.
(Please let me know by PM when you do so. Thanks.)
DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z the day of posting)

***********************************************

BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

​

NOTE 1 –

“Mortality Rate (All)” appears to bear a one to one correlation to “[Mortality Rate (Closed)] x [Clearance Rate]”. That means that it is likely that the _real_ mortality rate is the “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and only the differing lengths of time from diagnosis to death is obscuring that.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Asian” population percentages.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Racial” population percentages.​

***********************************************

​

COVID-19 is now the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 250,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 18 NOV 20 — ]].

***********************************************

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 2 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting) -
US figures are not accepted as completely reliable at this time.
The mortality rate reported is the mortality rate for CLOSED cases rather than for ALL cases as this appears to be a more accurate number.

20/09/15 – World (933,672/29,484,967) 4.20% [▼] / USA (199,148/9,751,048) 4.71% [▼] / Canada (9,179/138,010) 7.04% [▼]
20/09/20 – World (962,074/31,024,659) 4.08% [▼] / USA (203,844/6,968,918) 4.60% [▼] / Canada (9,211/142,774) 6.90% [▼]
20/09/25 – World )988,532/32,460,127) 3.96% [▼] / USA (207,555/7,187,179) 4.47% [▼] / Canada (9,249/149,094) 6.70% [▼]
20/09/30 – World (1,013,593/33,896,069) 3.87% [▼] / USA (210,814/7,407,201) 4.34% [▼] / Canada (9,291/156,961) 6.50% [▼]
20/10/05 – World (1,042,616/35,444,476) 3.76% [▼] / USA (214,626/7,637,864) 4.24% [▼] / Canada (9,481/166,156) 6.33% [▼]
20/10/10 – World (1,073,673/37,175,477) 3.70% [▼] / USA (218,685/7,895,738) 4.14% [▼] / Canada (9,585/178,117) 6.02% [▼]
20/10/15 – World (1,098,143/38,832,219) 3.63% [▼] / USA (221,895/8,156,124) 4.03% [▼] / Canada (9,664/189,387) 5.72% [▼]
20/10/18 – World (1.115.898/40.055.705) 3.59% [▼] / USA (224,295/8,345,317) 3.97% [▼] / Canada (9,746/196,321) 5.56% [▼]
20/10/19 – World (1,119,568/40,373,228) 3.58% [▼] / USA (224,756/8,388,728) 3.96% [▼] / Canada (9,760/198,148) 5.52% [▼]
20/10/20 – World (1,124,519/40,749,872) 3.57% [▼] / USA (225,269/8,459,967) 3.93% [▼] / Canada (9,778/201,437) 5.45% [▼]
20/10/21 – World (1,131,329/41,169,789) 3.55% [▼] / USA (226,273/8,524,139) 3.92% [▼] / Canada (9,794/203,688) 5.40% [▼]
20/10/22 – World (1,137,722/41,573,741) 3.54% [▼] / USA (227,419/8,585,748) 3.90% [▼] / Canada (9,829/206,360) 5.35% [▼]
20/10/23 – World (1,144595/42,133,698) 3.53% [▼] / USA (228,466/8,668,572) 3.88% [▼] / Canada (9,862/209,148) 5.31% [▼]
20/10/24 – World (1,150,684/42,579,308) 3.53% [↔] / USA (229,317/8,752,121) 3.87% [▼] / Canada (9,888/211,570) 5.27% [▼]
20/10/25 – World (1,156,181/43,055,448) 3.51% [▼] / USA (230,086/8,831,449) 3.85% [▼] / Canada (9,922/213,959) 5.23% [▼]
20/10/26 – World (1,160,650/43,467,345) 3.50% [▼] / USA (230,523/8,893,737) 3.84% [▼] / Canada (9,952/216,955) 5.18% [▼]
20/10/27 – World (1,166,240/43,884,197) 3.49% [▼] / USA (231,129/8,964,331) 3.81% [▼] / Canada (9,973/220,213) 5.13% [▼]
20/10/28 – World (1,173,808/44,357,671) 3.49% [↔] / USA (232,101/9,039,170) 3.80% [▼] / Canada (10,001/222,887) 5.09% [▼]

***********************************************​

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 833 (YESTERDAY it was 837).

The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” has been below 800 for a month now. However, the trend does not look encouraging.

IF the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, THEN the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US in the fall of 2021. It appears that a “Fall Wave” has started.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases continues to drop.

​

In relation to their relative abilities to pay (PPP GDP per capita is used as an indicator of ability to pay) and healthcare spending per capita all countries in the “G-8 + China + (aggregated) Europe + (aggregated) World” are doing at least 5% better than the US is in coping with COVID-19 deaths. However the UK appears to be having difficulty keeping outside that window.

This chart, from Our World in Data

​

illustrates the relative growth rates of COVID-19 in those areas.

HOWEVER, the best advice anyone can give you is



TAKE IT!​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S CHARTS

***********************************************

Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)





​

The charts APPEAR to show that a “third wave” might have started in the US.

EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)​

1. The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".
   *
2. All employ a 30 day forward projection. (Thanks to “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.)
   *
3. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
4. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
5. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
6. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as of the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
7. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
8. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt or cherry-picking data, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 4 – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

HOW IS YOUR STATE DOING?

HOW ARE THE "RED" AND "BLUE" STATES DOING?​

A sharp eyed reader let me know about a glitch that had entered into the "State Tables". Excel had managed to "eat" a state in each of two different tables. Was this a part of the Deep State Conspiracy To Overturn The 2016 Elections or is the explanation simply "It's Windows - It's funny that way."? I suppose that we'll never know because I fixed the problem and all of the states are now listed.

There are a whole lot of posts comparing "State X" against "States A, B, and C" without any acknowledgement that there are actually 50 states. (This is known as "cherry picking data".)

All base data is from Worldometer as of ~1400 on the date of posting.

NOTES -

1. The Oregon data for recovered cases is out of date and there is no newer data available. The Oregon Mortality Rate and Recovered Rate are unreliable.
   *
2. The determination of which states are "Red" and which states are "Blue" is made by Vaughn's Summaries and is based on the 2016 election results. I'm more than willing to consider any intelligent and logical argument as to whether a specific state should be considered either a "Red" or a "Blue" state, but let's do that by PM - OK?
   *
3. The totals are lower than the totals on Worldometer because US colonial possessions are excluded and only the actual US states are considered.
   *
4. Since ALL of the states (and even the District of Columbia) about the only "cherry picking" you can accuse me of doing is leaving out the American colonies of American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. Please feel free to kvetch about that all you want.

First, the table sorted by "Blue States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]") and "Red States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]"):

​

and then sorted by “Cases per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

and then sorted by “Deaths per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 5 - ODDS and SODS

***********************************************​

A summary of how the "Red States" are doing vis-a-vis the "Blue States"

​

How does the number of tests related to the "Mortality Rate"? It doesn't, and I'm no longer going to be posting that table routinely.

Instead what I will be posting is the projection of the number of deaths in the 365 days from the first COVID-19 in the US. As usual, that projection is based on the data as they are as of the date of posting and the assumption that the trends current as of the date of posting. If either the data or the trends change, then the projection is also going to change.

​

What are today's "Spot Death Numbers"?

​

[NOTE - Because these numbers are based on only two data points they are essentially useless for analysis, but some people think that they are important so I include them. If today's "Spot" New Deaths per New Cases Ratio vs USA is (as an example) 1:2.345, then that means that for every one death/new case in the relevant country, there were 2.345 deaths/new case in the US. The numbers in this table are VERY "frisky" so don't get all bent out of shape over them.]

..............\|||/ .............
..............(0 o) ..............
......,-------ooO-----------,....
......|…...PLEASE ........| ...
.........| ..DON'T FEED ...| ......
…......| .THE TROLLS ...| .......
.....'--------------Ooo----'....
.............|__|__| .............
..............|| ||..............
.............ooO Ooo............. ​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

If you have any dispute/discussion regarding the statistics, please feel free to link back to the latest post in the NEW THREAD that you start so that we can debate what your dispute/discussion is.
(Please let me know by PM when you do so. Thanks.)
DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z the day of posting)

***********************************************

BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

​

NOTE 1 –

“Mortality Rate (All)” appears to bear a one to one correlation to “[Mortality Rate (Closed)] x [Clearance Rate]”. That means that it is likely that the _real_ mortality rate is the “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and only the differing lengths of time from diagnosis to death is obscuring that.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Asian” population percentages.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Racial” population percentages.​

***********************************************

​

COVID-19 is now the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 250,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 18 NOV 20 — ]].

***********************************************

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 2 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting) -
US figures are not accepted as completely reliable at this time.
The mortality rate reported is the mortality rate for CLOSED cases rather than for ALL cases as this appears to be a more accurate number.

20/09/15 – World (933,672/29,484,967) 4.20% [▼] / USA (199,148/9,751,048) 4.71% [▼] / Canada (9,179/138,010) 7.04% [▼]
20/09/20 – World (962,074/31,024,659) 4.08% [▼] / USA (203,844/6,968,918) 4.60% [▼] / Canada (9,211/142,774) 6.90% [▼]
20/09/25 – World )988,532/32,460,127) 3.96% [▼] / USA (207,555/7,187,179) 4.47% [▼] / Canada (9,249/149,094) 6.70% [▼]
20/09/30 – World (1,013,593/33,896,069) 3.87% [▼] / USA (210,814/7,407,201) 4.34% [▼] / Canada (9,291/156,961) 6.50% [▼]
20/10/05 – World (1,042,616/35,444,476) 3.76% [▼] / USA (214,626/7,637,864) 4.24% [▼] / Canada (9,481/166,156) 6.33% [▼]
20/10/10 – World (1,073,673/37,175,477) 3.70% [▼] / USA (218,685/7,895,738) 4.14% [▼] / Canada (9,585/178,117) 6.02% [▼]
20/10/15 – World (1,098,143/38,832,219) 3.63% [▼] / USA (221,895/8,156,124) 4.03% [▼] / Canada (9,664/189,387) 5.72% [▼]
20/10/19 – World (1,119,568/40,373,228) 3.58% [▼] / USA (224,756/8,388,728) 3.96% [▼] / Canada (9,760/198,148) 5.52% [▼]
20/10/20 – World (1,124,519/40,749,872) 3.57% [▼] / USA (225,269/8,459,967) 3.93% [▼] / Canada (9,778/201,437) 5.45% [▼]
20/10/21 – World (1,131,329/41,169,789) 3.55% [▼] / USA (226,273/8,524,139) 3.92% [▼] / Canada (9,794/203,688) 5.40% [▼]
20/10/22 – World (1,137,722/41,573,741) 3.54% [▼] / USA (227,419/8,585,748) 3.90% [▼] / Canada (9,829/206,360) 5.35% [▼]
20/10/23 – World (1,144595/42,133,698) 3.53% [▼] / USA (228,466/8,668,572) 3.88% [▼] / Canada (9,862/209,148) 5.31% [▼]
20/10/24 – World (1,150,684/42,579,308) 3.53% [↔] / USA (229,317/8,752,121) 3.87% [▼] / Canada (9,888/211,570) 5.27% [▼]
20/10/25 – World (1,156,181/43,055,448) 3.51% [▼] / USA (230,086/8,831,449) 3.85% [▼] / Canada (9,922/213,959) 5.23% [▼]
20/10/26 – World (1,160,650/43,467,345) 3.50% [▼] / USA (230,523/8,893,737) 3.84% [▼] / Canada (9,952/216,955) 5.18% [▼]
20/10/27 – World (1,166,240/43,884,197) 3.49% [▼] / USA (231,129/8,964,331) 3.81% [▼] / Canada (9,973/220,213) 5.13% [▼]
20/10/28 – World (1,173,808/44,357,671) 3.49% [↔] / USA (232,101/9,039,170) 3.80% [▼] / Canada (10,001/222,887) 5.09% [▼]
20/10/29 – World (1,181,126/44,908,620) 3.48% [▼] / USA (233,137/9,121,800) 3.78% [▼] / Canada (10,032/225,586) 5.04% [▼]

***********************************************​

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 817 (YESTERDAY it was 833).

The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” has been below 800 for 33 days now. However, the trend does not look encouraging.

IF the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, THEN the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US sometime in the fall of 2021. It appears that a “Fall Wave” has started.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases continues to drop.

​

In relation to their relative abilities to pay (PPP GDP per capita is used as an indicator of ability to pay) and healthcare spending per capita all countries in the “G-8 + China + (aggregated) Europe + (aggregated) World” are doing at least 5% better than the US is in coping with COVID-19 deaths. However the UK appears to be having difficulty keeping outside that window.

This chart, from Our World in Data

​

illustrates the relative growth rates of COVID-19 in those areas.

HOWEVER, the best advice anyone can give you is



TAKE IT!​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S CHARTS

***********************************************

Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)





​

The charts APPEAR to show that a “third wave” might have started in the US.

EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)​

1. The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".
   *
2. All employ a 30 day forward projection. (Thanks to “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.)
   *
3. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
4. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
5. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
6. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as of the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
7. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
8. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt or cherry-picking data, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 4 – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

HOW IS YOUR STATE DOING?

HOW ARE THE "RED" AND "BLUE" STATES DOING?​

There are a whole lot of posts comparing "State X" against "States A, B, and C" without any acknowledgement that there are actually 50 states. (This is known as "cherry picking data".)

All base data is from Worldometer as of ~1400 on the date of posting.

NOTES -

1. The Oregon data for recovered cases is out of date and there is no newer data available. The Oregon Mortality Rate and Recovered Rate are unreliable.
   *
2. The determination of which states are "Red" and which states are "Blue" is made by Vaughn's Summaries and is based on the 2016 election results. I'm more than willing to consider any intelligent and logical argument as to whether a specific state should be considered either a "Red" or a "Blue" state, but let's do that by PM - OK?
   *
3. The totals are lower than the totals on Worldometer because US colonial possessions are excluded and only the actual US states are considered.
   *
4. Since ALL of the states (and even the District of Columbia) about the only "cherry picking" you can accuse me of doing is leaving out the American colonies of American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. Please feel free to kvetch about that all you want.

First, the table sorted by "Blue States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]") and "Red States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]"):

​

and then sorted by “Cases per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

and then sorted by “Deaths per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 5 - ODDS and SODS

***********************************************​

A summary of how the "Red States" are doing vis-a-vis the "Blue States"

[ATTACH E1 - Red vs Blue Summary HERE]

How does the number of tests related to the "Mortality Rate"? It doesn't, and I'm no longer going to be posting that table routinely.

Instead what I will be posting is the projection of the number of deaths in the 365 days from the first COVID-19 in the US. As usual, that projection is based on the data as they are as of the date of posting and the assumption that the trends current as of the date of posting. If either the data or the trends change, then the projection is also going to change.

[ATTACH E4 - First TWELVE months HERE]

What are today's "Spot Death Numbers"?

[ATTACH E3 – Current SPOT deaths HERE]

In the past 24 hours, the US (with approximately 4.24% of the world’s population) has had approximately 14.46% of the world’s COVID-19 deaths. That is a disparity of 3.34 :: 1 which would work out to a “Percentage Grade” of 29.95%.

[NOTE - Because these numbers are based on only two data points they are essentially useless for analysis, but some people think that they are important so I include them. If today's "Spot" New Deaths per New Cases Ratio vs USA is (as an example) 1:2.345, then that means that for every one death/new case in the relevant country, there were 2.345 deaths/new case in the US. The numbers in this table are VERY "frisky" so don't get all bent out of shape over them.]

..............\|||/ .............
..............(0 o) ..............
......,-------ooO-----------,....
......|…...PLEASE ........| ...
.........| ..DON'T FEED ...| ......
…......| .THE TROLLS ...| .......
.....'--------------Ooo----'....
.............|__|__| .............
..............|| ||..............
.............ooO Ooo.............

REMEMBER
​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

If you have any dispute/discussion regarding the statistics, please feel free to link back to the latest post in the NEW THREAD that you start so that we can debate what your dispute/discussion is.
(Please let me know by PM when you do so. Thanks.)
DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z the day of posting)

***********************************************

BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

​

NOTE 1 –

“Mortality Rate (All)” appears to bear a one to one correlation to “[Mortality Rate (Closed)] x [Clearance Rate]”. That means that it is likely that the _real_ mortality rate is the “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and only the differing lengths of time from diagnosis to death is obscuring that.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Asian” population percentages.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Racial” population percentages.​

***********************************************

​

COVID-19 is now the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 250,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 18 NOV 20 — ]].

***********************************************

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 2 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting) -
US figures are not accepted as completely reliable at this time.
The mortality rate reported is the mortality rate for CLOSED cases rather than for ALL cases as this appears to be a more accurate number.

20/09/15 – World (933,672/29,484,967) 4.20% [▼] / USA (199,148/9,751,048) 4.71% [▼] / Canada (9,179/138,010) 7.04% [▼]
20/09/20 – World (962,074/31,024,659) 4.08% [▼] / USA (203,844/6,968,918) 4.60% [▼] / Canada (9,211/142,774) 6.90% [▼]
20/09/25 – World )988,532/32,460,127) 3.96% [▼] / USA (207,555/7,187,179) 4.47% [▼] / Canada (9,249/149,094) 6.70% [▼]
20/09/30 – World (1,013,593/33,896,069) 3.87% [▼] / USA (210,814/7,407,201) 4.34% [▼] / Canada (9,291/156,961) 6.50% [▼]
20/10/05 – World (1,042,616/35,444,476) 3.76% [▼] / USA (214,626/7,637,864) 4.24% [▼] / Canada (9,481/166,156) 6.33% [▼]
20/10/10 – World (1,073,673/37,175,477) 3.70% [▼] / USA (218,685/7,895,738) 4.14% [▼] / Canada (9,585/178,117) 6.02% [▼]
20/10/15 – World (1,098,143/38,832,219) 3.63% [▼] / USA (221,895/8,156,124) 4.03% [▼] / Canada (9,664/189,387) 5.72% [▼]
20/10/20 – World (1,124,519/40,749,872) 3.57% [▼] / USA (225,269/8,459,967) 3.93% [▼] / Canada (9,778/201,437) 5.45% [▼]
20/10/21 – World (1,131,329/41,169,789) 3.55% [▼] / USA (226,273/8,524,139) 3.92% [▼] / Canada (9,794/203,688) 5.40% [▼]
20/10/22 – World (1,137,722/41,573,741) 3.54% [▼] / USA (227,419/8,585,748) 3.90% [▼] / Canada (9,829/206,360) 5.35% [▼]
20/10/23 – World (1,144595/42,133,698) 3.53% [▼] / USA (228,466/8,668,572) 3.88% [▼] / Canada (9,862/209,148) 5.31% [▼]
20/10/24 – World (1,150,684/42,579,308) 3.53% [↔] / USA (229,317/8,752,121) 3.87% [▼] / Canada (9,888/211,570) 5.27% [▼]
20/10/25 – World (1,156,181/43,055,448) 3.51% [▼] / USA (230,086/8,831,449) 3.85% [▼] / Canada (9,922/213,959) 5.23% [▼]
20/10/26 – World (1,160,650/43,467,345) 3.50% [▼] / USA (230,523/8,893,737) 3.84% [▼] / Canada (9,952/216,955) 5.18% [▼]
20/10/27 – World (1,166,240/43,884,197) 3.49% [▼] / USA (231,129/8,964,331) 3.81% [▼] / Canada (9,973/220,213) 5.13% [▼]
20/10/28 – World (1,173,808/44,357,671) 3.49% [↔] / USA (232,101/9,039,170) 3.80% [▼] / Canada (10,001/222,887) 5.09% [▼]
20/10/29 – World (1,181,126/44,908,620) 3.48% [▼] / USA (233,137/9,121,800) 3.78% [▼] / Canada (10,032/225,586) 5.04% [▼]
20/10/30 – World (1,188,262/45,475,853) 3.47% [▼] / USA (234,218/9,521,474) 3.77% [▼] / Canada (10,074/228,542) 5.00% [▼]

***********************************************​

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 822 (YESTERDAY it was 817).

The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is above 800 for the first day since 27 SEP 20.

IF the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, THEN the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US sometime in the fall of 2021. It appears that a “Fall Wave” has started.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases continues to drop.

​

In relation to their relative abilities to pay (PPP GDP per capita is used as an indicator of ability to pay) and healthcare spending per capita all countries in the “G-8 + China + (aggregated) Europe + (aggregated) World” are doing at least 5% better than the US is in coping with COVID-19 deaths. However the UK appears to be having difficulty keeping outside that window.

This chart, from Our World in Data

​

illustrates the relative growth rates of COVID-19 in those areas.

HOWEVER, the best advice anyone can give you is



TAKE IT!​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S CHARTS

***********************************************

Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)





​

The charts APPEAR to show that a “third wave” might have started in the US.

EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)​

1. The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".
   *
2. All employ a 30 day forward projection. (Thanks to “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.)
   *
3. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
4. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
5. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
6. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as of the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
7. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
8. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt or cherry-picking data, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 4 – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

HOW IS YOUR STATE DOING?

HOW ARE THE "RED" AND "BLUE" STATES DOING?​

There are a whole lot of posts comparing "State X" against "States A, B, and C" without any acknowledgement that there are actually 50 states. (This is known as "cherry picking data".)

All base data is from Worldometer as of ~1400 on the date of posting.

NOTES -

1. The Oregon data for recovered cases is out of date and there is no newer data available. The Oregon Mortality Rate and Recovered Rate are unreliable.
   *
2. The determination of which states are "Red" and which states are "Blue" is made by Vaughn's Summaries and is based on the 2016 election results. I'm more than willing to consider any intelligent and logical argument as to whether a specific state should be considered either a "Red" or a "Blue" state, but let's do that by PM - OK?
   *
3. The totals are lower than the totals on Worldometer because US colonial possessions are excluded and only the actual US states are considered.
   *
4. Since ALL of the states (and even the District of Columbia) about the only "cherry picking" you can accuse me of doing is leaving out the American colonies of American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. Please feel free to kvetch about that all you want.

First, the table sorted by "Blue States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]") and "Red States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]"):

​

and then sorted by “Cases per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

and then sorted by “Deaths per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 5 - ODDS and SODS

***********************************************​

A summary of how the "Red States" are doing vis-a-vis the "Blue States"

​

How does the number of tests related to the "Mortality Rate"? It doesn't, and I'm no longer going to be posting that table routinely.

Instead what I will be posting is the projection of the number of deaths in the 365 days from the first COVID-19 in the US. As usual, that projection is based on the data as they are as of the date of posting and the assumption that the trends current as of the date of posting. If either the data or the trends change, then the projection is also going to change.

​

What are today's "Spot Death Numbers"?

​

In the past 24 hours, the US (with approximately 4.24% of the world’s population) has had approximately 15.15% of the world’s COVID-19 deaths. That is a disparity of 3.57 :: 1 which would work out to a “Percentage Grade” of 27.99%.

[NOTE - Because these numbers are based on only two data points they are essentially useless for analysis, but some people think that they are important so I include them. If today's "Spot" New Deaths per New Cases Ratio vs USA is (as an example) 1:2.345, then that means that for every one death/new case in the relevant country, there were 2.345 deaths/new case in the US. The numbers in this table are VERY "frisky" so don't get all bent out of shape over them.]

..............\|||/ .............
..............(0 o) ..............
......,-------ooO-----------,....
......|…...PLEASE ........| ...
.........| ..DON'T FEED ...| ......
…......| .THE TROLLS ...| .......
.....'--------------Ooo----'....
.............|__|__| .............
..............|| ||..............
.............ooO Ooo............. ​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

If you have any dispute/discussion regarding the statistics, please feel free to link back to the latest post in the NEW THREAD that you start so that we can debate what your dispute/discussion is.
(Please let me know by PM when you do so. Thanks.)
DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z the day of posting)

***********************************************

BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

​

NOTE 1 –

“Mortality Rate (All)” appears to bear a one to one correlation to “[Mortality Rate (Closed)] x [Clearance Rate]”. That means that it is likely that the _real_ mortality rate is the “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and only the differing lengths of time from diagnosis to death is obscuring that.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Asian” population percentages.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Racial” population percentages.​

***********************************************​

​

COVID-19 is now the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 250,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 17 NOV 20 [ ⇓ ].

***********************************************

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 2 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting) -
US figures are not accepted as completely reliable at this time.
The mortality rate reported is the mortality rate for CLOSED cases rather than for ALL cases as this appears to be a more accurate number.

20/09/15 – World (933,672/29,484,967) 4.20% [▼] / USA (199,148/9,751,048) 4.71% [▼] / Canada (9,179/138,010) 7.04% [▼]
20/09/20 – World (962,074/31,024,659) 4.08% [▼] / USA (203,844/6,968,918) 4.60% [▼] / Canada (9,211/142,774) 6.90% [▼]
20/09/25 – World )988,532/32,460,127) 3.96% [▼] / USA (207,555/7,187,179) 4.47% [▼] / Canada (9,249/149,094) 6.70% [▼]
20/09/30 – World (1,013,593/33,896,069) 3.87% [▼] / USA (210,814/7,407,201) 4.34% [▼] / Canada (9,291/156,961) 6.50% [▼]
20/10/05 – World (1,042,616/35,444,476) 3.76% [▼] / USA (214,626/7,637,864) 4.24% [▼] / Canada (9,481/166,156) 6.33% [▼]
20/10/10 – World (1,073,673/37,175,477) 3.70% [▼] / USA (218,685/7,895,738) 4.14% [▼] / Canada (9,585/178,117) 6.02% [▼]
20/10/15 – World (1,098,143/38,832,219) 3.63% [▼] / USA (221,895/8,156,124) 4.03% [▼] / Canada (9,664/189,387) 5.72% [▼]
20/10/20 – World (1,124,519/40,749,872) 3.57% [▼] / USA (225,269/8,459,967) 3.93% [▼] / Canada (9,778/201,437) 5.45% [▼]
20/10/22 – World (1,137,722/41,573,741) 3.54% [▼] / USA (227,419/8,585,748) 3.90% [▼] / Canada (9,829/206,360) 5.35% [▼]
20/10/23 – World (1,144595/42,133,698) 3.53% [▼] / USA (228,466/8,668,572) 3.88% [▼] / Canada (9,862/209,148) 5.31% [▼]
20/10/24 – World (1,150,684/42,579,308) 3.53% [↔] / USA (229,317/8,752,121) 3.87% [▼] / Canada (9,888/211,570) 5.27% [▼]
20/10/25 – World (1,156,181/43,055,448) 3.51% [▼] / USA (230,086/8,831,449) 3.85% [▼] / Canada (9,922/213,959) 5.23% [▼]
20/10/26 – World (1,160,650/43,467,345) 3.50% [▼] / USA (230,523/8,893,737) 3.84% [▼] / Canada (9,952/216,955) 5.18% [▼]
20/10/27 – World (1,166,240/43,884,197) 3.49% [▼] / USA (231,129/8,964,331) 3.81% [▼] / Canada (9,973/220,213) 5.13% [▼]
20/10/28 – World (1,173,808/44,357,671) 3.49% [↔] / USA (232,101/9,039,170) 3.80% [▼] / Canada (10,001/222,887) 5.09% [▼]
20/10/29 – World (1,181,126/44,908,620) 3.48% [▼] / USA (233,137/9,121,800) 3.78% [▼] / Canada (10,032/225,586) 5.04% [▼]
20/10/30 – World (1,188,262/45,475,853) 3.47% [▼] / USA (234,218/9,521,474) 3.77% [▼] / Canada (10,074/228,542) 5.00% [▼]
20/10/31 – World (1,195,935/46,053,200) 3.46% [▼] / USA (235,254/9,323,744) 3.76% [▼] / Canada (10,110/231,999) 4.95% [▼]

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The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 848 (YESTERDAY it was 822).

The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is above 800 for the second day in a row.

IF the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, THEN the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US sometime in the fall of 2021. It appears that a “Fall Wave” has started.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases continues to drop.

​

In relation to their relative abilities to pay (PPP GDP per capita is used as an indicator of ability to pay) and healthcare spending per capita all countries in the “G-8 + China + (aggregated) Europe + (aggregated) World” are doing at least 5% better than the US is in coping with COVID-19 deaths. However the UK appears to be having difficulty keeping outside that window.

This chart, from Our World in Data

​

illustrates the relative growth rates of COVID-19 in those areas.

HOWEVER, the best advice anyone can give you is



TAKE IT!​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S CHARTS

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Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)





[​

If the charts are correct, then it is likely that a “third wave” might have started in the US.

EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)​

1. The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".
   *
2. All employ a 30 day forward projection. (Thanks to “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.)
   *
3. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
4. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
5. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
6. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as of the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
7. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
8. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt or cherry-picking data, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 4 – US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

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HOW IS YOUR STATE DOING?

HOW ARE THE "RED" AND "BLUE" STATES DOING?​

There are a whole lot of posts comparing "State X" against "States A, B, and C" without any acknowledgement that there are actually 50 states. (This is known as "cherry picking data".)

All base data is from Worldometer as of ~1400 on the date of posting.

NOTES -

1. The Oregon data for recovered cases is out of date and there is no newer data available. The Oregon Mortality Rate and Recovered Rate are unreliable.
   *
2. The determination of which states are "Red" and which states are "Blue" is made by Vaughn's Summaries and is based on the 2016 election results. I'm more than willing to consider any intelligent and logical argument as to whether a specific state should be considered either a "Red" or a "Blue" state, but let's do that by PM - OK?
   *
3. The totals are lower than the totals on Worldometer because US colonial possessions are excluded and only the actual US states are considered.
   *
4. Since ALL of the states (and even the District of Columbia) about the only "cherry picking" you can accuse me of doing is leaving out the American colonies of American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. Please feel free to kvetch about that all you want.

First, the table sorted by "Blue States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]") and "Red States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]"):

​

and then sorted by “Cases per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

and then sorted by “Deaths per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 5 - ODDS and SODS

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A summary of how the "Red States" are doing vis-a-vis the "Blue States"

​

How does the number of tests related to the "Mortality Rate"? It doesn't, and I'm no longer going to be posting that table routinely.

Instead what I will be posting is the projection of the number of deaths in the 365 days from the first COVID-19 in the US. As usual, that projection is based on the data as they are as of the date of posting and the assumption that the trends current as of the date of posting. If either the data or the trends change, then the projection is also going to change.

​

Since I need the space, the "Spot Death Numbers" table is discontinued.

​

[Because the “Spot Death Numbers” are based on only two data points they are essentially useless for analysis, but some people who don’t understand this think that they are important.]​

However, in the past 24 hours, the US (with approximately 4.24% of the world’s population) has had approximately 7.00% of the world’s COVID-19 deaths.[/b] That is a disparity of 1.65 :: 1 which would work out to a “Percentage Grade” of 60.61%.

As a replacement, and because a whole lot of people are posting PIOOYA comparisons to the “Spanish Flu” (which actually started in the US where the first known case was an American soldier who had never been outside of the US and who was not “Hispanic”) I’m posting this comparison between COVID-19 deaths and the “Spanish Flu”. The column gives the relative deadliness of the two and a ratio of over 1.000 : 1 means that COVID-19 is deadlier than the “Spanish Flu”.

..............\|||/ .............
..............(0 o) ..............
......,-------ooO-----------,....
......|…...PLEASE ........| ...
.........| ..DON'T FEED ...| ......
…......| .THE TROLLS ...| .......
.....'--------------Ooo----'....
.............|__|__| .............
..............|| ||..............
.............ooO Ooo............. ​