Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19

[TU Curmudgeon]

If you have any dispute/discussion regarding the statistics, please feel free to link back to the latest post in the NEW THREAD that you start so that we can debate what your dispute/discussion is. (Please let me know by PM when you do so. Thanks.)

DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z the day of posting)

***********************************************

BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

​

NOTE 1 –

“Mortality Rate (All)” appears to bear a one to one correlation to “[Mortality Rate (Closed)] x [Clearance Rate]”. That means that it is likely that the _real_ mortality rate is the “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and only the differing lengths of time from diagnosis to death is obscuring that.
​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Asian” population percentages.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Racial” population percentages.
​

***********************************************

​

COVID-19 is now the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 250,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 19 NOV 21 [▼].

***********************************************

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 2 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %
- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting)
US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.

20/08/05 – World (705,059/18,735,183) 3.76%[▼] / USA (160,335/4,919,116) 3.26%[▼] / Canada (8,958/117,729) 7.60%[▼]
20/08/10 – World (734,635/20,059,350) 3.66%[▼] / USA (165,619/5,200,313) 3.18%[▼] / Canada (8,981/119,451) 7.52%[▼]
20/08/15 – World (764,237/21,395,915) 3.57%[▼] / USA (171,568/5,478,009) 3.13%[▼] / Canada (9,020/121,652) 7.41%[▼]
20/08/20 – World (791,709/22,613,985) 3.50%[▼] / USA (176,377/5,701,878) 3.09%[▼] / Canada (9,049/123,490) 7.33%[▼]

After this point, the mortality rate reported will be the mortality rate for CLOSED cases rather than for ALL cases as this appears to be a more accurate number.

20/08/25 – World (817,911/23,845,116) 4.75%[▼] / USA (181,204/5,917,479) 5.33%[▼] / Canada (9,083/125,647) 7.52%[▼]
20/08/30 – World (847,430/25,202,356) 4.61%[▼] / USA (186,874/6,140,005) 5.20%[▼] / Canada (9,113/127,673) 7.43%[▼]
20/09/05 - World (879,694/26,775,656) 4.44%[▼] / USA (192,146/6,390,176) 5.02%[▼] / Canada (9,141/131,124) 7.31%[▼]
20/09/10 – World (908,659/28,057,154) 4.32%[▼] / USA (195,245/6,549,771) 4.83%[▼] / Canada (9,155/134,294) 7.18%[▼]
20/09/15 – World (933,672/29,484,967) 4.20%[▼] / USA (199,148/9,751,048) 4.71%[▼] / Canada (9,179/138,010) 7.04%[▼]
20/09/20 – World (962,074/31,024,659) 4.08%[▼] / USA (203,844/6,968,918) 4.60%[▼] / Canada (9,211/142,774) 6.90%[▼]
20/09/21 – World (965,856/31,296,381) 4.05%[▼] / USA (204,126/7,005,893) 4.58%[▼] / Canada (9,217/143,649) 6.88%[▼]
20/09/22 – World (970,392/31,538,257)4.02%[▼] / USA (204,628/7,048,859) 4.54%[▼] / Canada (9,228/145,415) 6.85%[▼]
20/09/23 – World (976,381/31,831,394) 4.00%[▼] / USA (205,503/7,098,674) 4.51%[▼] / Canada (9,234/146,663) 6.78%[▼]
20/09/24 – World (982,766/32,143,941) 3.98%[▼] / USA (206,616/7,141,539) 4.48%[▼] / Canada (9,243/147,756)6.75%[▼]
20/09/25 – World )988,532/32,460,127) 3.96%[▼] / USA (207,555/7,187,179) 4.47%[▼] / Canada (9,249/149,094) 6.70%[▼]
20/09/26 – World (994,313/32,803,482) 3.95%[▼] / USA (208,483/7,245,723) 4.45%[▼] / Canada (9,255/150,456) 6.67%[▼]
20/09/27 – World (999,540/33,116,619) 3.93%[▼] / USA (209,196/7,288,932) 4.42%[▼] / Canada (9,363/151,671) 6.64%[▼]

***********************************************​

We greatly regret the passing of “Doctor” Mashmont’s “prediction” that the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM number of deaths from COVID-19 would be 10,300. That stunning “prediction” had been ailing since 04 APR 20 and it passed below the threshold of statistical significance on 24 SEP 20. “Doctor” Mashmont was the 2020 recipient of the [size=”5”]W[/size]orld [size=”5”]A[/size]ctuarial [size=”5”]G[/size]roup Prize for Predictativeology..

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 765 (YESTERDAY it was 741).

*** The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is [COLOR="green”][b]back below 800[/B][/COLOR] [b]for the first day in a week[/b] – the increase does appear to have been a blip[/b]). [b][B]***[/B]

IF[/B] the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, [B]THEN[/B] the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US around the END of 2021. – BUT it appears that the trend is changing for the better.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases continues to drop.

[CENTER][ATTACH type="full"]67296681[/ATTACH][/CENTER]

If you consider the locations’ relative ability to pay (PPP GDP per capita is used as an indicator of ability to pay) or healthcare spending per capita this is how they stack up in terms of the chance that a person picked at random will die from COVID-19 in relation to the US.

HOWEVER, the best advice anyone can give you is



TAKE IT!​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S CHARTS

***********************************************

Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)





​

The charts APPEAR to show that the _current_ wave of COVID-19 has crested in the US. Whether or not there will be a “third wave” is something for historical epidemiologists to discuss because that is a “prediction” and not a “projection”.

EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)​

1. The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".
   *
2. All charts now have both a linear (Green) and logarithmic (Yellow) trend line and employ a 30 day forward projection. (Thanks to “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.)
   *
3. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
4. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
5. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
6. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as of the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
7. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
8. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt or cherry-picking data, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 4 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

HOW IS YOUR STATE DOING?

HOW ARE THE "RED" AND "BLUE" STATES DOING?​

There are a whole lot of posts comparing "State X" against "States A, B, and C" without any acknowledgement that there are actually 50 states. (This is known as "cherry picking data".)

All base data is from Worldometer as of ~1400 on the date of posting.

NOTES -

1. The determination of which states are "Red" and which states are "Blue" is made by Vaughn's Summaries and is based on the 2016 election results. I'm more than willing to consider any intelligent and logical argument as to whether a specific state should be considered either a "Red" or a "Blue" state, but let's do that by PM - OK?
   *
2. The totals are lower than the totals on Worldometer because US colonial possessions are excluded and only the actual US states are considered.
   *
3. Since ALL of the states (and even the District of Columbia) about the only "cherry picking" you can accuse me of doing is leaving out the American colonies of American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. Please feel free to kvetch about that all you want.

First, the table sorted by "Blue States" (listed alphabetically) and "Red States" (listed alphabetically):

​

and then sorted by “Cases per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

And then sorted by “Deaths per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 5 - ODDS and SODS

***********************************************​

A summary of how the "Red States" are doing vis-a-vis the "Blue States"

​

How does the number of tests related to the "Mortality Rate"?

​

Hint [It doesn't.]

What are today's "Spot Death Numbers"?

​

[NOTE - Because these numbers are based on only two data points they are essentially useless, but some people think that they are important so I include them. If today's "Spot" New Deaths per New Cases Ratio vs USA is (as an example) 1:3.4567, then that means that for every one death/new case in the relevant country, there were 3.4567 deaths/new case in the US. The numbers in this table are VERY "frisky" so don't get all bent out of shape over them.]

..............\|||/ .............
..............(0 o) ..............
......,-------ooO-()--------,....
......| .....PLEASE ........| ...
.........| ..DON'T FEED ...| ......
.........| .THE TROLLS ...| .......
.....'-------------Ooo----'....
.............|__|__| .............
..............|| ||..............
.............ooO Ooo............. ​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

If you have any dispute/discussion regarding the statistics, please feel free to link back to the latest post in the NEW THREAD that you start so that we can debate what your dispute/discussion is. (Please let me know by PM when you do so. Thanks.)

DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z the day of posting)

***********************************************

BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

​

NOTE 1 –

“Mortality Rate (All)” appears to bear a one to one correlation to “[Mortality Rate (Closed)] x [Clearance Rate]”. That means that it is likely that the _real_ mortality rate is the “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and only the differing lengths of time from diagnosis to death is obscuring that.
​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Asian” population percentages.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time. However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Racial” population percentages.​

***********************************************



COVID-19 is now the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.​

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 250,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 20 NOV 21 [▲].

***********************************************

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 2 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting).
US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.

20/08/10 – World (734,635/20,059,350) 3.66%[▼] / USA (165,619/5,200,313) 3.18%[▼] / Canada (8,981/119,451) 7.52%[▼]
20/08/15 – World (764,237/21,395,915) 3.57%[▼] / USA (171,568/5,478,009) 3.13%[▼] / Canada (9,020/121,652) 7.41%[▼]
20/08/20 – World (791,709/22,613,985) 3.50%[▼] / USA (176,377/5,701,878) 3.09%[▼] / Canada (9,049/123,490) 7.33%[▼]

After this point, the mortality rate reported will be the mortality rate for CLOSED cases rather than for ALL cases as this appears to be a more accurate number.

20/08/25 – World (817,911/23,845,116) 4.75%[▼] / USA (181,204/5,917,479) 5.33%[▼] / Canada (9,083/125,647) 7.52%[▼]
20/08/30 – World (847,430/25,202,356) 4.61%[▼] / USA (186,874/6,140,005) 5.20%[▼] / Canada (9,113/127,673) 7.43%[▼]
20/09/05 - World (879,694/26,775,656) 4.44%[▼] / USA (192,146/6,390,176) 5.02%[▼] / Canada (9,141/131,124) 7.31%[▼]
20/09/10 – World (908,659/28,057,154) 4.32%[▼] / USA (195,245/6,549,771) 4.83%[▼] / Canada (9,155/134,294) 7.18%[▼]
20/09/15 – World (933,672/29,484,967) 4.20%[▼] / USA (199,148/9,751,048) 4.71%[▼] / Canada (9,179/138,010) 7.04%[▼]
20/09/20 – World (962,074/31,024,659) 4.08%[▼] / USA (203,844/6,968,918) 4.60%[▼] / Canada (9,211/142,774) 6.90%[▼]
20/09/21 – World (965,856/31,296,381) 4.05%[▼] / USA (204,126/7,005,893) 4.58%[▼] / Canada (9,217/143,649) 6.88%[▼]
20/09/22 – World (970,392/31,538,257)4.02%[▼] / USA (204,628/7,048,859) 4.54%[▼] / Canada (9,228/145,415) 6.85%[▼]
20/09/23 – World (976,381/31,831,394) 4.00%[▼] / USA (205,503/7,098,674) 4.51%[▼] / Canada (9,234/146,663) 6.78%[▼]
20/09/24 – World (982,766/32,143,941) 3.98%[▼] / USA (206,616/7,141,539) 4.48%[▼] / Canada (9,243/147,756)6.75%[▼]
20/09/25 – World )988,532/32,460,127) 3.96%[▼] / USA (207,555/7,187,179) 4.47%[▼] / Canada (9,249/149,094) 6.70%[▼]
20/09/26 – World (994,313/32,803,482) 3.95%[▼] / USA (208,483/7,245,723) 4.45%[▼] / Canada (9,255/150,456) 6.67%[▼]
20/09/27 – World (999,540/33,116,619) 3.93%[▼] / USA (209,196/7,288,932) 4.42%[▼] / Canada (9,363/151,671) 6.64%[▼]
20/09/28 – World (1,003,187/33,361,043) 3.91%[▼] / USA (209,467/7,321,914) 4.39%[▼] / Canada (9,268/1536,125) 6.60%[▼]​

***********************************************

We greatly regret the passing of “Doctor” Mashmont’s “prediction” that the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM number of deaths from COVID-19 would be 10,300. That stunning “prediction” had been ailing since 04 APR 20 and it passed below the threshold of statistical significance on 24 SEP 20. “Doctor” Mashmont was the 2020 recipient of the [size=”5”]W[/size]orld [size=”5”]A[/size]ctuarial [size=”5”]G[/size]roup Prize for Predictativeology..

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 763 (YESTERDAY it was 765).

*** The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is [COLOR="green”][b]back below 800[/B][/COLOR] [b]for the second day in a row[/b] – the increase does appear to have been a blip[/b]). [b][B]***[/B]

IF[/B] the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, [B]THEN[/B] the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US around the END of 2021. – BUT it appears that the trend is changing for the better.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases continues to drop.

[CENTER][ATTACH type="full"]67296821[/ATTACH][/CENTER]

If you consider the locations’ relative ability to pay (PPP GDP per capita is used as an indicator of ability to pay) or healthcare spending per capita this is how they stack up in terms of the chance that a person picked at random will die from COVID-19 in relation to the US.

HOWEVER, the best advice anyone can give you is



TAKE IT!​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S CHARTS

***********************************************

Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)





​

The charts APPEAR to show that the _current_ wave of COVID-19 has crested in the US. Whether or not there will be a “third wave” is something for historical epidemiologists to discuss because that is a “prediction” and not a “projection”.

EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)​

1. The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".
   *
2. All charts now have both a linear (Green) and logarithmic (Yellow) trend line and employ a 30 day forward projection. (Thanks to “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.)
   *
3. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
4. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
5. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
6. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as of the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
7. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
8. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt or cherry-picking data, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 4 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

HOW IS YOUR STATE DOING?

HOW ARE THE "RED" AND "BLUE" STATES DOING?​

There are a whole lot of posts comparing "State X" against "States A, B, and C" without any acknowledgement that there are actually 50 states. (This is known as "cherry picking data".)

All base data is from Worldometer as of ~1400 on the date of posting.

NOTES -

1. The determination of which states are "Red" and which states are "Blue" is made by Vaughn's Summaries and is based on the 2016 election results. I'm more than willing to consider any intelligent and logical argument as to whether a specific state should be considered either a "Red" or a "Blue" state, but let's do that by PM - OK?
   *
2. The totals are lower than the totals on Worldometer because US colonial possessions are excluded and only the actual US states are considered.
   *
3. Since ALL of the states (and even the District of Columbia) about the only "cherry picking" you can accuse me of doing is leaving out the American colonies of American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. Please feel free to kvetch about that all you want.

First, the table sorted by "Blue States" (listed alphabetically) and "Red States" (listed alphabetically):

​

and then sorted by “Cases per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

and then sorted by “Deaths per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 5 - ODDS and SODS

***********************************************​

A summary of how the "Red States" are doing vis-a-vis the "Blue States"

​

How does the number of tests related to the "Mortality Rate"?

​

Hint [It doesn't.]

What are today's "Spot Death Numbers"?

​

[NOTE - Because these numbers are based on only two data points they are essentially useless, but some people think that they are important so I include them. If today's "Spot" New Deaths per New Cases Ratio vs USA is (as an example) 1:3.4567, then that means that for every one death/new case in the relevant country, there were 3.4567 deaths/new case in the US. The numbers in this table are VERY "frisky" so don't get all bent out of shape over them.]

..............\|||/ .............
..............(0 o) ..............
......,-------ooO-()--------,....
......|......PLEASE ........| ...
.........| ..DON'T FEED ...| ......
.........| .THE TROLLS ...| .......
.....'-------------Ooo----'....
.............|__|__| .............
..............|| ||..............
.............ooO Ooo............. ​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

If you have any dispute/discussion regarding the statistics, please feel free to link back to the latest post in the NEW THREAD that you start so that we can debate what your dispute/discussion is.
(Please let me know by PM when you do so. Thanks.)
DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z the day of posting)

***********************************************

BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

​

NOTE 1 –

“Mortality Rate (All)” appears to bear a one to one correlation to “[Mortality Rate (Closed)] x [Clearance Rate]”. That means that it is likely that the _real_ mortality rate is the “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and only the differing lengths of time from diagnosis to death is obscuring that.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.[/SIZE] However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Asian” population percentages.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.[/SIZE] However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Racial” population percentages.​

***********************************************

​

COVID-19 is now the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 250,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 21 NOV 21 [[COLOR="green”]▲[/color]].

[CENTER]***********************************************

[ATTACH type="full"]67296993[/ATTACH][/CENTER]

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 2 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %[/B]

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting) -
US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.

20/08/15 – World (764,237/21,395,915) 3.57%[▼] / USA (171,568/5,478,009) 3.13%[▼] / Canada (9,020/121,652) 7.41%[▼]
20/08/20 – World (791,709/22,613,985) 3.50%[▼] / USA (176,377/5,701,878) 3.09%[▼] / Canada (9,049/123,490) 7.33%[▼]

After this point, the mortality rate reported will be the mortality rate for CLOSED cases rather than for ALL cases as this appears to be a more accurate number.

20/08/25 – World (817,911/23,845,116) 4.75%[▼] / USA (181,204/5,917,479) 5.33%[▼] / Canada (9,083/125,647) 7.52%[▼]
20/08/30 – World (847,430/25,202,356) 4.61%[▼] / USA (186,874/6,140,005) 5.20%[▼] / Canada (9,113/127,673) 7.43%[▼]
20/09/05 - World (879,694/26,775,656) 4.44%[▼] / USA (192,146/6,390,176) 5.02%[▼] / Canada (9,141/131,124) 7.31%[▼]
20/09/10 – World (908,659/28,057,154) 4.32%[▼] / USA (195,245/6,549,771) 4.83%[▼] / Canada (9,155/134,294) 7.18%[▼]
20/09/15 – World (933,672/29,484,967) 4.20%[▼] / USA (199,148/9,751,048) 4.71%[▼] / Canada (9,179/138,010) 7.04%[▼]
20/09/20 – World (962,074/31,024,659) 4.08%[▼] / USA (203,844/6,968,918) 4.60%[▼] / Canada (9,211/142,774) 6.90%[▼]
20/09/22 – World (970,392/31,538,257)4.02%[▼] / USA (204,628/7,048,859) 4.54%[▼] / Canada (9,228/145,415) 6.85%[▼]
20/09/23 – World (976,381/31,831,394) 4.00%[▼] / USA (205,503/7,098,674) 4.51%[▼] / Canada (9,234/146,663) 6.78%[▼]
20/09/24 – World (982,766/32,143,941) 3.98%[▼] / USA (206,616/7,141,539) 4.48%[▼] / Canada (9,243/147,756)6.75%[▼]
20/09/25 – World )988,532/32,460,127) 3.96%[▼] / USA (207,555/7,187,179) 4.47%[▼] / Canada (9,249/149,094) 6.70%[▼]
20/09/26 – World (994,313/32,803,482) 3.95%[▼] / USA (208,483/7,245,723) 4.45%[▼] / Canada (9,255/150,456) 6.67%[▼]
20/09/27 – World (999,540/33,116,619) 3.93%[▼] / USA (209,196/7,288,932) 4.42%[▼] / Canada (9,363/151,671) 6.64%[▼]
20/09/28 – World (1,003,187/33,361,043) 3.91%[▼] / USA (209,467/7,321,914) 4.39%[▼] / Canada (9,268/153,125) 6.60%[▼]
20/09/29 – World (1,007,492/33,605,858) 3.89%[▼] / USA (209,881/7,363,723) 4.35%[▼] / Canada (9,278/155,301) 6.54%[▼]​

***********************************************

We greatly regret the passing of “Doctor” Mashmont’s “prediction” that the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM number of deaths from COVID-19 would be 10,300. That stunning “prediction” had been ailing since 04 APR 20 and it passed below the threshold of statistical significance on 24 SEP 20. “Doctor” Mashmont was the 2020 recipient of the [size=”5”]W[/size]orld [size=”5”]A[/size]ctuarial [size=”5”]G[/size]roup Prize for Predictativeology. His cheque for 10,300 Venezuelan Sovereign Bolívars (equal to US$0.0322) is in the mail.

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 750 (YESTERDAY it was 763).

*** The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is [COLOR="green”][b]back below 800[/B][/COLOR] [b]for the third day in a row[/b] – the increase was very likely a blip[/b]). [b][B]***[/B]

IF[/B] the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, [B]THEN[/B] the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US around the END of 2021. – BUT it appears that the trend is changing for the better.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases continues to drop.

[CENTER][ATTACH type="full"]67296999[/ATTACH][/CENTER]

If you consider the locations’ relative ability to pay (PPP GDP per capita is used as an indicator of ability to pay) or healthcare spending per capita this is how they stack up in terms of the chance that a person picked at random will die from COVID-19 in relation to the US.

HOWEVER, the best advice anyone can give you is



TAKE IT!​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S CHARTS

***********************************************

Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)





​

The charts APPEAR to show that the _current_ wave of COVID-19 has crested in the US. Whether or not there will be a “third wave” is something for historical epidemiologists to discuss because that is a “prediction” and not a “projection”.

EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)​

1. The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".
   *
2. All charts now have both a linear (Green) and logarithmic (Yellow) trend line and employ a 30 day forward projection. (Thanks to “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.)
   *
3. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
4. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
5. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
6. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as of the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
7. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
8. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt or cherry-picking data, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 4 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

HOW IS YOUR STATE DOING?

HOW ARE THE "RED" AND "BLUE" STATES DOING?​

There are a whole lot of posts comparing "State X" against "States A, B, and C" without any acknowledgement that there are actually 50 states. (This is known as "cherry picking data".)

All base data is from Worldometer as of ~1400 on the date of posting.

NOTES -

1. The determination of which states are "Red" and which states are "Blue" is made by Vaughn's Summaries and is based on the 2016 election results. I'm more than willing to consider any intelligent and logical argument as to whether a specific state should be considered either a "Red" or a "Blue" state, but let's do that by PM - OK?
   *
2. The totals are lower than the totals on Worldometer because US colonial possessions are excluded and only the actual US states are considered.
   *
3. Since ALL of the states (and even the District of Columbia) about the only "cherry picking" you can accuse me of doing is leaving out the American colonies of American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. Please feel free to kvetch about that all you want.

First, the table sorted by "Blue States" (listed alphabetically) and "Red States" (listed alphabetically):

​

and then sorted by “Cases per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

And then sorted by “Deaths per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 5 - ODDS and SODS

***********************************************​

A summary of how the "Red States" are doing vis-a-vis the "Blue States"

​

Today's ranking of the states by their mortality rates (using only closed cases to calculate them)

​

What are today's "Spot Death Numbers"?

​

[NOTE - Because these numbers are based on only two data points they are essentially useless, but some people think that they are important so I include them. If today's "Spot" New Deaths per New Cases Ratio vs USA is (as an example) 1:3.4567, then that means that for every one death/new case in the relevant country, there were 3.4567 deaths/new case in the US. The numbers in this table are VERY "frisky" so don't get all bent out of shape over them.]

..............\|||/ .............
..............(0 o) ..............
......,-------ooO-()--------,....
......|…...PLEASE ........| ...
.........| ..DON'T FEED ...| ......
.........| .THE TROLLS ...| .......
.....'-------------Ooo----'....
.............|__|__| .............
..............|| ||..............
.............ooO Ooo............. ​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

If you have any dispute/discussion regarding the statistics, please feel free to link back to the latest post in the NEW THREAD that you start so that we can debate what your dispute/discussion is.
(Please let me know by PM when you do so. Thanks.)
DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z the day of posting)

***********************************************

BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

​

NOTE 1 –

“Mortality Rate (All)” appears to bear a one to one correlation to “[Mortality Rate (Closed)] x [Clearance Rate]”. That means that it is likely that the _real_ mortality rate is the “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and only the differing lengths of time from diagnosis to death is obscuring that.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.[/SIZE] However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Asian” population percentages.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.[/SIZE] However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Racial” population percentages.​

***********************************************

​

COVID-19 is now the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 250,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 20 NOV 21 [[COLOR="red”][B]▼[/B][/color]].

[CENTER]***********************************************

[ATTACH type="full"]67297151[/ATTACH][/CENTER]

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 2 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

QUICK SUMMARY[/b] OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting) -
US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.

20/08/15 – World (764,237/21,395,915) 3.57%[▼] / USA (171,568/5,478,009) 3.13%[▼] / Canada (9,020/121,652) 7.41%[▼]
20/08/20 – World (791,709/22,613,985) 3.50%[▼] / USA (176,377/5,701,878) 3.09%[▼] / Canada (9,049/123,490) 7.33%[▼]

After this point, the mortality rate reported will be the mortality rate for CLOSED cases rather than for ALL cases as this appears to be a more accurate number.

20/08/25 – World (817,911/23,845,116) 4.75%[▼] / USA (181,204/5,917,479) 5.33%[▼] / Canada (9,083/125,647) 7.52%[▼]
20/08/30 – World (847,430/25,202,356) 4.61%[▼] / USA (186,874/6,140,005) 5.20%[▼] / Canada (9,113/127,673) 7.43%[▼]
20/09/05 - World (879,694/26,775,656) 4.44%[▼] / USA (192,146/6,390,176) 5.02%[▼] / Canada (9,141/131,124) 7.31%[▼]
20/09/10 – World (908,659/28,057,154) 4.32%[▼] / USA (195,245/6,549,771) 4.83%[▼] / Canada (9,155/134,294) 7.18%[▼]
20/09/15 – World (933,672/29,484,967) 4.20%[▼] / USA (199,148/9,751,048) 4.71%[▼] / Canada (9,179/138,010) 7.04%[▼]
20/09/20 – World (962,074/31,024,659) 4.08%[▼] / USA (203,844/6,968,918) 4.60%[▼] / Canada (9,211/142,774) 6.90%[▼]
20/09/22 – World (970,392/31,538,257)4.02%[▼] / USA (204,628/7,048,859) 4.54%[▼] / Canada (9,228/145,415) 6.85%[▼]
20/09/23 – World (976,381/31,831,394) 4.00%[▼] / USA (205,503/7,098,674) 4.51%[▼] / Canada (9,234/146,663) 6.78%[▼]
20/09/24 – World (982,766/32,143,941) 3.98%[▼] / USA (206,616/7,141,539) 4.48%[▼] / Canada (9,243/147,756)6.75%[▼]
20/09/25 – World )988,532/32,460,127) 3.96%[▼] / USA (207,555/7,187,179) 4.47%[▼] / Canada (9,249/149,094) 6.70%[▼]
20/09/26 – World (994,313/32,803,482) 3.95%[▼] / USA (208,483/7,245,723) 4.45%[▼] / Canada (9,255/150,456) 6.67%[▼]
20/09/27 – World (999,540/33,116,619) 3.93%[▼] / USA (209,196/7,288,932) 4.42%[▼] / Canada (9,363/151,671) 6.64%[▼]
20/09/28 – World (1,003,187/33,361,043) 3.91%[▼] / USA (209,467/7,321,914) 4.39%[▼] / Canada (9,268/1536,125) 6.60%[▼]
20/09/29 – World (1,007,492/33,605,858) 3.89%[▼] / USA (209,881/7,363,723) 4.35%[▼] / Canada (9,278/155,301) 6.54%[▼]
20/09/30 – World (1,013,593/33,896,069) 3.87%[▼] / USA (210,814/7,407,201) 4.34%[▼] / Canada (9,291/156,961) 6.50%[▼]

***********************************************​

We greatly regret the passing of “Doctor” Mashmont’s “prediction” that the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM number of deaths from COVID-19 would be 10,300. That stunning “prediction” had been ailing since 04 APR 20 and it passed below the threshold of statistical significance on 24 SEP 20. “Doctor” Mashmont was the 2020 recipient of the [size=”5”]W[/size]orld [size=”5”]A[/size]ctuarial [size=”5”]G[/size]roup Prize for Predicatativeology.

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 759 (YESTERDAY it was 750).

The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is [COLOR="green”][b]back below 800[/B][/COLOR] [b]for the fourth day in a row[/b].

[B]IF[/B] the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, [B]THEN[/B] the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US around the MIDDLE of 2021. – BUT it appears that the trend is changing for the better.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases continues to drop.

[CENTER][ATTACH type="full"]67297156[/ATTACH][/CENTER]

If you consider the locations’ relative ability to pay (PPP GDP per capita is used as an indicator of ability to pay) or healthcare spending per capita this is how they stack up in terms of the chance that a person picked at random will die from COVID-19 in relation to the US.

HOWEVER, the best advice anyone can give you is



TAKE IT!​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S CHARTS

***********************************************

Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)





​

The charts APPEAR to show that the _current_ wave of COVID-19 has crested in the US. Whether or not there will be a “third wave” is something for historical epidemiologists to discuss because that is a “prediction” and not a “projection”.

EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)

1. The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".
   *
2. All charts now have both a linear (Green) and logarithmic (Yellow) trend line and employ a 30 day forward projection. (Thanks to “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.)
   *
3. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
4. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
5. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
6. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as of the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
7. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
8. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt or cherry-picking data, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 4 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

HOW IS YOUR STATE DOING?

HOW ARE THE "RED" AND "BLUE" STATES DOING?​

There are a whole lot of posts comparing "State X" against "States A, B, and C" without any acknowledgement that there are actually 50 states. (This is known as "cherry picking data".)

All base data is from Worldometer as of ~1400 on the date of posting.

NOTES -

1. The determination of which states are "Red" and which states are "Blue" is made by Vaughn's Summaries and is based on the 2016 election results. I'm more than willing to consider any intelligent and logical argument as to whether a specific state should be considered either a "Red" or a "Blue" state, but let's do that by PM - OK?
   *
2. The totals are lower than the totals on Worldometer because US colonial possessions are excluded and only the actual US states are considered.
   *
3. Since ALL of the states (and even the District of Columbia) about the only "cherry picking" you can accuse me of doing is leaving out the American colonies of American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. Please feel free to kvetch about that all you want.

First, the table sorted by "Blue States" (listed alphabetically) and "Red States" (listed alphabetically):

​

and then sorted by “Cases per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

And then sorted by “Deaths per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 5 - ODDS and SODS

***********************************************​

A summary of how the "Red States" are doing vis-a-vis the "Blue States"

​

How does the number of tests related to the "Mortality Rate"?

​

Hint [It doesn't.]

What are today's "Spot Death Numbers"?

​

[NOTE - Because these numbers are based on only two data points they are essentially useless, but some people think that they are important so I include them. If today's "Spot" New Deaths per New Cases Ratio vs USA is (as an example) 1:3.4567, then that means that for every one death/new case in the relevant country, there were 3.4567 deaths/new case in the US. The numbers in this table are VERY "frisky" so don't get all bent out of shape over them.]

..............\|||/ .............
..............(0 o) ..............
......,-------ooO-----------,....
......|…...PLEASE ........| ...
.........| ..DON'T FEED ...| ......
.........| .THE TROLLS ...| .......
.....'-------------Ooo----'....
.............|__|__| .............
..............|| ||..............
.............ooO Ooo............. ​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

If you have any dispute/discussion regarding the statistics, please feel free to link back to the latest post in the NEW THREAD that you start so that we can debate what your dispute/discussion is.
(Please let me know by PM when you do so. Thanks.)
DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z the day of posting)

***********************************************

BLOCK 1 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

​

NOTE 1 –

“Mortality Rate (All)” appears to bear a one to one correlation to “[Mortality Rate (Closed)] x [Clearance Rate]”. That means that it is likely that the _real_ mortality rate is the “Mortality Rate (Closed)” and only the differing lengths of time from diagnosis to death is obscuring that.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.[/SIZE] However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Asian” population percentages.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.[/SIZE] However they do not appear to be outside the parameters of countries with equivalent “Racial” population percentages.​

***********************************************

​

COVID-19 is now the THIRD largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the psychologically significant number

– 250,000 –​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 21 NOV 21 [▲].

***********************************************

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

***********************************************

BLOCK 2 - DATA and CORRELATIONS

***********************************************

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) & Mortality Closed %

- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (at aprox. 1400 Z on the date of posting) -
US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.

20/08/15 – World (764,237/21,395,915) 3.57%[▼] / USA (171,568/5,478,009) 3.13%[▼] / Canada (9,020/121,652) 7.41%[▼]
20/08/20 – World (791,709/22,613,985) 3.50%[▼] / USA (176,377/5,701,878) 3.09%[▼] / Canada (9,049/123,490) 7.33%[▼]

After this point, the mortality rate reported will be the mortality rate for CLOSED cases rather than for ALL cases as this appears to be a more accurate number.

20/08/25 – World (817,911/23,845,116) 4.75%[▼] / USA (181,204/5,917,479) 5.33%[▼] / Canada (9,083/125,647) 7.52%[▼]
20/08/30 – World (847,430/25,202,356) 4.61%[▼] / USA (186,874/6,140,005) 5.20%[▼] / Canada (9,113/127,673) 7.43%[▼]
20/09/05 - World (879,694/26,775,656) 4.44%[▼] / USA (192,146/6,390,176) 5.02%[▼] / Canada (9,141/131,124) 7.31%[▼]
20/09/10 – World (908,659/28,057,154) 4.32%[▼] / USA (195,245/6,549,771) 4.83%[▼] / Canada (9,155/134,294) 7.18%[▼]
20/09/15 – World (933,672/29,484,967) 4.20%[▼] / USA (199,148/9,751,048) 4.71%[▼] / Canada (9,179/138,010) 7.04%[▼]
20/09/20 – World (962,074/31,024,659) 4.08%[▼] / USA (203,844/6,968,918) 4.60%[▼] / Canada (9,211/142,774) 6.90%[▼]
20/09/24 – World (982,766/32,143,941) 3.98%[▼] / USA (206,616/7,141,539) 4.48%[▼] / Canada (9,243/147,756)6.75%[▼]
20/09/25 – World )988,532/32,460,127) 3.96%[▼] / USA (207,555/7,187,179) 4.47%[▼] / Canada (9,249/149,094) 6.70%[▼]
20/09/26 – World (994,313/32,803,482) 3.95%[▼] / USA (208,483/7,245,723) 4.45%[▼] / Canada (9,255/150,456) 6.67%[▼]
20/09/27 – World (999,540/33,116,619) 3.93%[▼] / USA (209,196/7,288,932) 4.42%[▼] / Canada (9,363/151,671) 6.64%[▼]
20/09/28 – World (1,003,187/33,361,043) 3.91%[▼] / USA (209,467/7,321,914) 4.39%[▼] / Canada (9,268/1536,125) 6.60%[▼]
20/09/29 – World (1,007,492/33,605,858) 3.89%[▼] / USA (209,881/7,363,723) 4.35%[▼] / Canada (9,278/155,301) 6.54%[▼]
20/09/30 – World (1,013,593/33,896,069) 3.87%[▼] / USA (210,814/7,407,201) 4.34%[▼] / Canada (9,291/156,961) 6.50%[▼]
20/10/01 – World (1,019,628/34,206,517) 3.85%[▼] / USA (211,805/7,451,354) 4.31%[▼] / Canada (9,297/158,758) 6.44%[▼]

***********************************************​

We greatly regret the passing of “Doctor” Mashmont’s “prediction” that the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM number of deaths from COVID-19 would be 10,300. That stunning “prediction” had been ailing since 04 APR 20 and it passed below the threshold of statistical significance on 24 SEP 20. “Doctor” Mashmont was the 2020 recipient of the [size=”5”]W[/size]orld [size=”5”]A[/size]ctuarial [size=”5”]G[/size]roup Prize for Predictativeology..

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 741 (YESTERDAY it was 759).

The US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is below 800 for the fifth day in a row.

IF the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, THEN the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US around the MIDDLE of 2021. – BUT it appears that the trend is changing for the better.

The US mortality rate for CLOSED cases continues to drop.

​

If you consider the locations’ relative ability to pay (PPP GDP per capita is used as an indicator of ability to pay) or healthcare spending per capita this is how they stack up in terms of the chance that a person picked at random will die from COVID-19 in relation to the US.

HOWEVER, the best advice anyone can give you is



TAKE IT!​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 3 – TODAY’S CHARTS

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Today’s charts are based on Worldometer data as of approximately 1400 Z on the day of posting)





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The charts APPEAR to show that the _current_ wave of COVID-19 has crested in the US. Whether or not there will be a “third wave” is something for historical epidemiologists to discuss because that is a “prediction” and not a “projection”.

EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)​

1. The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".
   *
2. All charts now have both a linear (Green) and logarithmic (Yellow) trend line and employ a 30 day forward projection. (Thanks to “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.)
   *
3. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
4. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
5. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
6. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as of the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
7. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
8. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt or cherry-picking data, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 4 - US States DATA and CORRELATIONS

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HOW IS YOUR STATE DOING?

HOW ARE THE "RED" AND "BLUE" STATES DOING?​

There are a whole lot of posts comparing "State X" against "States A, B, and C" without any acknowledgement that there are actually 50 states. (This is known as "cherry picking data".)

All base data is from Worldometer as of ~1400 on the date of posting.

NOTES -

1. The determination of which states are "Red" and which states are "Blue" is made by Vaughn's Summaries and is based on the 2016 election results. I'm more than willing to consider any intelligent and logical argument as to whether a specific state should be considered either a "Red" or a "Blue" state, but let's do that by PM - OK?
   *
2. The totals are lower than the totals on Worldometer because US colonial possessions are excluded and only the actual US states are considered.
   *
3. Since ALL of the states (and even the District of Columbia) about the only "cherry picking" you can accuse me of doing is leaving out the American colonies of American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. Please feel free to kvetch about that all you want.

First, the table sorted by "Blue States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]") and "Red States" (listed by "Mortality Rate [Closed]"):

​

and then sorted by “Cases per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

And then sorted by “Deaths per Million” figures (The percentage [top chart] shows how well the “Red States” and “Blue States” are doing in terms of their percentage of the US population. If the “X States” had 50% of the population and 55% of whatever was being measured, then the “X States” would show as 110% while the “Y States” would show as 90%.)

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

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BLOCK 5 - ODDS and SODS

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A summary of how the "Red States" are doing vis-a-vis the "Blue States"

​

How does the number of tests related to the "Mortality Rate"?

​

Hint [It doesn't.]

What are today's "Spot Death Numbers"?

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[NOTE - Because these numbers are based on only two data points they are essentially useless, but some people think that they are important so I include them. If today's "Spot" New Deaths per New Cases Ratio vs USA is (as an example) 1:3.4567, then that means that for every one death/new case in the relevant country, there were 3.4567 deaths/new case in the US. The numbers in this table are VERY "frisky" so don't get all bent out of shape over them.]

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.........| ..DON'T FEED ...| ......
.........| .THE TROLLS ...| .......
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.............ooO Ooo............. ​