Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19

[TU Curmudgeon]

TODAY'S CHARTS​

(based on Worldometer data as of 0001 Z MON 27 JUL 20)











EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)​

1. The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. If mortality increases and testing goes up proportionately, the index will be flat. If mortality increases and testing increases by a greater proportion, the index will go down. If mortality increases and testing increases by a lesser proportion, the index will go up. If mortality - oh heck, you get the idea. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".
   *
2. The YELLOW trend lines are "third order polynomial" trend lines and those tend to be "livelier" than "linear" trend lines. Thank you “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.
   *
3. The ORANGE trend lines are second order (“cubic) polynomial trend lines (and those tend to be REALLY "frisky").
   *
4. The smaller the number of data points, the less reliable the trend lines are.
   *
5. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
6. The GREEN trend lines are “linear” trend line and those tend to be unresponsive to the latest developments.
   *
7. The ACTUAL TREND is likely to be someplace between that indicated by the GREEN trend line and the YELLOW (or ORANGE) trend line.
   *
8. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
9. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
10. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as the generation of the chart do not change.
    *
11. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
    *
12. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic

*************************************


(See World/China/USA/Canada Note 2 Below)

************************************



- - NOTES FOR – World/China/USA/Canada - -​

NOTE 1 –

As of 15 APR 2020 Canada and the United States of America use _the same criteria for reporting_ both “Total Cases” and “Total Deaths”. Prior to 15 APR 2020, the US did NOT include “probable” cases and deaths but only reported “confirmed” cases and deaths. Some other countries also use the same criteria for both “Total Cases” and “Total Deaths” as Canada and (now) the US use, but I don’t know which do and which don’t.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.
​

NOTE 3 –

More Americans have now died from COVID-19 than died due to CVA (“Stroke”) 142,141 (previously the #5 cause of death in the US), and the “psychologically significant number” of 150,000 was passed on 27 JUL 20.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is Chronic Lower Respiratory Tract Disease (154,596), the #4 cause of death in the United States of America. IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 01 AUG 20

For data on individual US States follow THIS LINK.
​

NOTE 4 –

Absolute numbers [Columns (A), (B), and (C)] have been adjusted to show what they would be if Canada had the same size population as the US. The ratio numbers remain the same.​

***********************************





​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) Mortality Rates
- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic –
US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.
​

20/05/30 – World (367,437/6,061,366) 6.06% / USA (104,550/1,794,153) 5.83% / Canada (6,979/89,418) 7.80%

20/06/05 – World (390,720/6,731,659) 5.85% / USA (110,210/1,924,591) 5.73% / Canada (7,637/93,726) 8.15%

20/06/10 – World (413,773/7,356,287) 5.63% / USA (114,189/2,046,577) 5.58% / Canada (7,897/96,653) 8.17%

20/06/15 – World (436,209/8,024,836) 5.44% / USA (117,859/2.162,406) 5.45% / Canada (8,146/98,787) 8.25%

20/06/20 – World (463,312/8,799,219) 5.27% / USA (121,424/2,298,108) 5.28% / Canada (8,346/100,629) 8.29%

20/06/25 – World (485,690/9,562,348) 5.08% / USA (124,308/2,463,923) 5.05% / Canada (8,484/102,242) 8.30%

20/06/30 – World (509,112/10,449,109) 4.87% / USA (128,819/2,683,301) 4.80% / Canada (8,566/103,918) 8.24%

20/07/05 – World (534,398/11,420,445) 4.68% / USA (132,335/2,936,904) 4.51% / Canada (8,674/105,317) 8.24%

20/07/10 – World (558,305/12,429,824) 4.49% / USA (135,869/3,221,938) 4.22% / Canada (8,749/106,805) 8.19%

20/07/15 – World (582,320/13,504,012) 4.31% / USA (139,197/3,548,546) 3.92% / Canada (8,798/108,468) 8.11%

20/07/20 – World (609,603/14,673,689) 4.15% / USA (143,310/3,899,358) 3.68% / Canada (8,852/110,338) 8.02%

20/07/21 – World (614,048/14,884,770) 4.13% / USA (143,872/3,962,380) 3.63% / Canada (8,858/111,124) 7.97%

20/07/22 – World (620,502/15,136,255) 4.10% / USA (144,983/4,030,200) 3.60% / Canada (8,862/111,697) 7.94%

20/07/23 – World (631,128/15,415,206) 4.09% / USA (146,198/4,102,002) 3.56% / Canada (8,870/112,240) 7.90%

20/07/24 – World (637,538/15,707,391) 4.06% / USA (147,364/4,171,358) 3.53% / Canada (8,874/112,672)7.88%

20/07/25 – World (643,687/15,993,736) 4.02% / USA (148,521/4,249,779) 3.49% / Canada (8,881/113,206) 7.84%

20/07/26 – World (649,156/16,235,989) 4.00% / USA (149,400/4,315,926) 3.46% / Canada (8,885/113,556) 7.82%

20/07/27 – World (652,921/16,451,551) 3.97% / USA (149,852/4,372,056) 3.43% / Canada (8,890/113,911) 7.80%

20/07/28 – World (657,454/16,687,885) 3.94% / USA (150,500/4,434,185) 3.39% / Canada (8,901/114,597) 7.77%
​

More Americans have died from COVID-19 than the annual number that die due to

Cerebral Vascular Accidents (Strokes) – 142,142 –
and the “Psychologically significant number” of 150,.000 deaths was passed on 27 JUL 20.

COVID-19 is the FIFTH largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the annual number of deaths from Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease

– 154,596 – ​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 01 AUG 20.

*********************************************​

Dr. Fauci's (BA - Holy Cross, MD - Columbia) prediction of between 100,000 and 200,000 CIVID-19 deaths is CORRECT.

The “accuracy” of the “predictions” of the _[Fill in the Blank]_ who claimed he was so accurate that we should call him “Doctor”, who (as far as anyone knows) has no actual statistical knowledge whatsoever, and whose abysmal prediction record has been WRONG since 04 APR 20 (and is now OVER 1,350% too LOW) is no longer updated.

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 947 (YESTERDAY it was 935).

For the US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is above 800 for the THIRD day in a row.

If you can see any “huge” jump in death from

​

then you are doing better than I am.

View attachment 67286644​

IF the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, THEN the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US around the middle of September.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

TODAY'S CHARTS​

(based on Worldometer data as of 0001 Z TUE 28 JUL 20)











EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)​

1. The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. If mortality increases and testing goes up proportionately, the index will be flat. If mortality increases and testing increases by a greater proportion, the index will go down. If mortality increases and testing increases by a lesser proportion, the index will go up. If mortality - oh heck, you get the idea. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".
   *
2. Trend lines have been color coded:
   
   • LINEAR trend lines are GREEN. Those tend to be the least responsive to the latest developments.
     *
   • SECOND ORDER POLYNOMIAL trend lines are ORANGE. For small numbers of data points they tend to be excessively “frisky”.
     *
   • THIRD ORDER POLYNOMIAL trend lines are YELLOW. Those are used where they give a better data fit.
   Thank you “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.
   *
3. The smaller the number of data points, the less reliable the trend lines are.
   *
4. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
5. The ACTUAL _TREND_ is likely to be someplace between that indicated by the GREEN trend line and the ORANGE or (YELLOW) trend line.
   *
6. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
7. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
8. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
9. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
10. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic

*************************************


(See World/China/USA/Canada Note 2 Below)

************************************



- - NOTES FOR – World/China/USA/Canada - -​

NOTE 1 –

As of 15 APR 2020 Canada and the United States of America use _the same criteria for reporting_ both “Total Cases” and “Total Deaths”. Prior to 15 APR 2020, the US did NOT include “probable” cases and deaths but only reported “confirmed” cases and deaths. Some other countries also use the same criteria for both “Total Cases” and “Total Deaths” as Canada and (now) the US use, but I don’t know which do and which don’t.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.
​

NOTE 3 –

More Americans have now died from COVID-19 than died due to CVA (“Stroke”) 142,141 (previously the #5 cause of death in the US), and the “psychologically significant number” of 150,000 was passed on 27 JUL 20.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is Chronic Lower Respiratory Tract Disease (154,596), the #4 cause of death in the United States of America. IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 31 JUL 20.

For data on individual US States follow THIS LINK.
​

NOTE 4 –

Absolute numbers [Columns (A), (B), and (C)] have been adjusted to show what they would be if Canada had the same size population as the US. The ratio numbers remain the same.​

***********************************





​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) Mortality Rates
- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic –
US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.
​

20/05/30 – World (367,437/6,061,366) 6.06% / USA (104,550/1,794,153) 5.83% / Canada (6,979/89,418) 7.80%

20/06/05 – World (390,720/6,731,659) 5.85% / USA (110,210/1,924,591) 5.73% / Canada (7,637/93,726) 8.15%

20/06/10 – World (413,773/7,356,287) 5.63% / USA (114,189/2,046,577) 5.58% / Canada (7,897/96,653) 8.17%

20/06/15 – World (436,209/8,024,836) 5.44% / USA (117,859/2.162,406) 5.45% / Canada (8,146/98,787) 8.25%

20/06/20 – World (463,312/8,799,219) 5.27% / USA (121,424/2,298,108) 5.28% / Canada (8,346/100,629) 8.29%

20/06/25 – World (485,690/9,562,348) 5.08% / USA (124,308/2,463,923) 5.05% / Canada (8,484/102,242) 8.30%

20/06/30 – World (509,112/10,449,109) 4.87% / USA (128,819/2,683,301) 4.80% / Canada (8,566/103,918) 8.24%

20/07/05 – World (534,398/11,420,445) 4.68% / USA (132,335/2,936,904) 4.51% / Canada (8,674/105,317) 8.24%

20/07/10 – World (558,305/12,429,824) 4.49% / USA (135,869/3,221,938) 4.22% / Canada (8,749/106,805) 8.19%

20/07/15 – World (582,320/13,504,012) 4.31% / USA (139,197/3,548,546) 3.92% / Canada (8,798/108,468) 8.11%

20/07/20 – World (609,603/14,673,689) 4.15% / USA (143,310/3,899,358) 3.68% / Canada (8,852/110,338) 8.02%

20/07/22 – World (620,502/15,136,255) 4.10% / USA (144,983/4,030,200) 3.60% / Canada (8,862/111,697) 7.94%

20/07/23 – World (631,128/15,415,206) 4.09% / USA (146,198/4,102,002) 3.56% / Canada (8,870/112,240) 7.90%

20/07/24 – World (637,538/15,707,391) 4.06% / USA (147,364/4,171,358) 3.53% / Canada (8,874/112,672)7.88%

20/07/25 – World (643,687/15,993,736) 4.02% / USA (148,521/4,249,779) 3.49% / Canada (8,881/113,206) 7.84%

20/07/26 – World (649,156/16,235,989) 4.00% / USA (149,400/4,315,926) 3.46% / Canada (8,885/113,556) 7.82%

20/07/27 – World (652,921/16,451,551) 3.97% / USA (149,852/4,372,056) 3.43% / Canada (8,890/113,911) 7.80%

20/07/28 – World (657,454/16,687,885) 3.94% / USA (150,500/4,434,185) 3.39% / Canada (8,901/114,597) 7.77%

20/07/29 – World (664,300/16,930,902) 3.92% / USA (152,358/4,498,887) 3.39% / Canada (8,912/114,994) 7.75%
​

More Americans have died from COVID-19 than die annually due to

Cerebral Vascular Accidents (Strokes) – 142,142 –
and the “Psychologically significant number” of 150,.000 deaths was passed on 27 JUL 20.

COVID-19 is the FIFTH largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the annual number of deaths from Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease

– 154,596 – ​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 31 JUL 20.

*********************************************​

Dr. Fauci's (BA - Holy Cross, MD - Columbia) prediction of between 100,000 and 200,000 CIVID-19 deaths is CORRECT.

The “accuracy” of the “predictions” of the _[Fill in the Blank]_ who claimed he was so accurate that we should call him “Doctor”, who (as far as anyone knows) has no actual statistical knowledge whatsoever, and whose abysmal prediction record has been WRONG since 04 APR 20 (and is now OVER 1,375% too LOW) is no longer updated.

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 1,054 (YESTERDAY it was 1,029).

For the US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is above 800 for the FOURTH day in a row.

If you can see any “huge” jump in death from

​

then you are doing better than I am.

View attachment 67286644​

IF the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, THEN the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US around the last third of September.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

TODAY'S CHARTS​

(based on Worldometer data as of 0001 Z WED 29 JUL 20)











EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)​

1. The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. If mortality increases and testing goes up proportionately, the index will be flat. If mortality increases and testing increases by a greater proportion, the index will go down. If mortality increases and testing increases by a lesser proportion, the index will go up. If mortality - oh heck, you get the idea. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".
   *
2. Trend lines have been color coded:
   
   • LINEAR trend lines are GREEN. Those tend to be the least responsive to the latest developments.
     *
   • SECOND ORDER POLYNOMIAL trend lines are RED. For small numbers of data points they tend to be excessively “frisky”.
     *
   • THIRD ORDER POLYNOMIAL trend lines are YELLOW. Those are used where they give a better data fit.
   Thank you “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.
   *
3. The smaller the number of data points, the less reliable the trend lines are.
   *
4. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
5. The ACTUAL _TREND_ is likely to be someplace between that indicated by the GREEN trend line and the RED or (YELLOW) trend line.
   *
6. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
7. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
8. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
9. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
10. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic

*************************************


(See World/China/USA/Canada Note 2 Below)

************************************



- - NOTES FOR – World/China/USA/Canada - -​

NOTE 1 –

As of 15 APR 2020 Canada and the United States of America use _the same criteria for reporting_ both “Total Cases” and “Total Deaths”. Prior to 15 APR 2020, the US did NOT include “probable” cases and deaths but only reported “confirmed” cases and deaths. Some other countries also use the same criteria for both “Total Cases” and “Total Deaths” as Canada and (now) the US use, but I don’t know which do and which don’t.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.
​

NOTE 3 –

More Americans have now died from COVID-19 than died due to CVA (“Stroke”) 142,141 (previously the #5 cause of death in the US), and the “psychologically significant number” of 150,000 was passed on 27 JUL 20.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is Chronic Lower Respiratory Tract Disease (154,596), the #4 cause of death in the United States of America. IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 30 JUL 20.

For data on individual US States follow THIS LINK.
​

NOTE 4 –

Absolute numbers [Columns (A), (B), and (C)] have been adjusted to show what they would be if Canada had the same size population as the US. The ratio numbers remain the same.​

***********************************





​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) Mortality Rates
- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic –
US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.
​

20/05/30 – World (367,437/6,061,366) 6.06% / USA (104,550/1,794,153) 5.83% / Canada (6,979/89,418) 7.80%

20/06/05 – World (390,720/6,731,659) 5.85% / USA (110,210/1,924,591) 5.73% / Canada (7,637/93,726) 8.15%

20/06/10 – World (413,773/7,356,287) 5.63% / USA (114,189/2,046,577) 5.58% / Canada (7,897/96,653) 8.17%

20/06/15 – World (436,209/8,024,836) 5.44% / USA (117,859/2.162,406) 5.45% / Canada (8,146/98,787) 8.25%

20/06/20 – World (463,312/8,799,219) 5.27% / USA (121,424/2,298,108) 5.28% / Canada (8,346/100,629) 8.29%

20/06/25 – World (485,690/9,562,348) 5.08% / USA (124,308/2,463,923) 5.05% / Canada (8,484/102,242) 8.30%

20/06/30 – World (509,112/10,449,109) 4.87% / USA (128,819/2,683,301) 4.80% / Canada (8,566/103,918) 8.24%

20/07/05 – World (534,398/11,420,445) 4.68% / USA (132,335/2,936,904) 4.51% / Canada (8,674/105,317) 8.24%

20/07/10 – World (558,305/12,429,824) 4.49% / USA (135,869/3,221,938) 4.22% / Canada (8,749/106,805) 8.19%

20/07/15 – World (582,320/13,504,012) 4.31% / USA (139,197/3,548,546) 3.92% / Canada (8,798/108,468) 8.11%

20/07/20 – World (609,603/14,673,689) 4.15% / USA (143,310/3,899,358) 3.68% / Canada (8,852/110,338) 8.02%

20/07/23 – World (631,128/15,415,206) 4.09% / USA (146,198/4,102,002) 3.56% / Canada (8,870/112,240) 7.90%

20/07/24 – World (637,538/15,707,391) 4.06% / USA (147,364/4,171,358) 3.53% / Canada (8,874/112,672)7.88%

20/07/25 – World (643,687/15,993,736) 4.02% / USA (148,521/4,249,779) 3.49% / Canada (8,881/113,206) 7.84%

20/07/26 – World (649,156/16,235,989) 4.00% / USA (149,400/4,315,926) 3.46% / Canada (8,885/113,556) 7.82%

20/07/27 – World (652,921/16,451,551) 3.97% / USA (149,852/4,372,056) 3.43% / Canada (8,890/113,911) 7.80%

20/07/28 – World (657,454/16,687,885) 3.94% / USA (150,500/4,434,185) 3.39% / Canada (8,901/114,597) 7.77%

20/07/29 – World (664,300/16,930,902) 3.92% / USA (152,358/4,498,887) 3.39% / Canada (8,912/114,994) 7.75%

20/07/30 – World (671,005/17,221,761) 3.90% / USA (153,864/4,569,173) 3.37% / Canada (8,917/115,470) 7.72%
​

More Americans have died from COVID-19 than die annually due to

Cerebral Vascular Accidents (Strokes) – 142,142 –
and the “Psychologically significant number” of 150,.000 deaths was passed on 27 JUL 20.

COVID-19 is the FIFTH largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the annual number of deaths from Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease

– 154,596 – ​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 30 JUL 20.

*********************************************​

Dr. Fauci's (BA - Holy Cross, MD - Columbia) prediction of between 100,000 and 200,000 CIVID-19 deaths is CORRECT.

The “accuracy” of the “predictions” of the _[Fill in the Blank]_ who claimed he was so accurate that we should call him “Doctor”, who (as far as anyone knows) has no actual statistical knowledge whatsoever, and whose abysmal prediction record has been WRONG since 04 APR 20 (and is now OVER 1,375% too LOW) is no longer updated.

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 1,093 (YESTERDAY it was 1,054).

For the US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is above 900 for the FIRST day since 14 JUN 20.

If you can see any “huge” jump in death from

​

then you are doing better than I am.

View attachment 67286644​

IF the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, THEN the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US around the end of September.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

TODAY'S CHARTS​

(based on Worldometer data as of 0001 Z THU 20 JUL 20)











EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)​

1. The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. If mortality increases and testing goes up proportionately, the index will be flat. If mortality increases and testing increases by a greater proportion, the index will go down. If mortality increases and testing increases by a lesser proportion, the index will go up. If mortality - oh heck, you get the idea. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".
   *
2. Trend lines have been color coded:
   
   • LINEAR trend lines are GREEN. Those tend to be the least responsive to the latest developments.
     *
   • SECOND ORDER POLYNOMIAL trend lines are RED. For small numbers of data points they tend to be excessively “frisky”.
     *
   • For second order polynomial charts, the ACTUAL trend is likely to be someplace between that indicated by the GREEN trend line and the RED trend line.
     *
   • THIRD ORDER POLYNOMIAL trend lines are YELLOW. Those are used where they give a better data fit and the actual trend is likely to be pretty close to the YELLOW line.
   Thank you “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.
   *
3. The smaller the number of data points, the less reliable the trend lines are.
   *
4. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
5. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
6. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
7. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
8. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
9. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic

*************************************


(See World/China/USA/Canada Note 2 Below)

************************************



- - NOTES FOR – World/China/USA/Canada - -​

NOTE 1 –

As of 15 APR 2020 Canada and the United States of America use _the same criteria for reporting_ both “Total Cases” and “Total Deaths”. Prior to 15 APR 2020, the US did NOT include “probable” cases and deaths but only reported “confirmed” cases and deaths. Some other countries also use the same criteria for both “Total Cases” and “Total Deaths” as Canada and (now) the US use, but I don’t know which do and which don’t.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.
​

NOTE 3 –

More Americans have now died from COVID-19 than died due to Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease (154,596) - previously the #4 cause of death in the US).

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is Accidents (161,374), the #3 cause of death in the United States of America. IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 05 AUG 20.

For data on individual US States follow THIS LINK.
​

NOTE 4 –

Absolute numbers [Columns (A), (B), and (C)] have been adjusted to show what they would be if Canada had the same size population as the US. The ratio numbers remain the same.​

***********************************





​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) Mortality Rates
- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic –
US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.
​

20/05/30 – World (367,437/6,061,366) 6.06% / USA (104,550/1,794,153) 5.83% / Canada (6,979/89,418) 7.80%

20/06/05 – World (390,720/6,731,659) 5.85% / USA (110,210/1,924,591) 5.73% / Canada (7,637/93,726) 8.15%

20/06/10 – World (413,773/7,356,287) 5.63% / USA (114,189/2,046,577) 5.58% / Canada (7,897/96,653) 8.17%

20/06/15 – World (436,209/8,024,836) 5.44% / USA (117,859/2.162,406) 5.45% / Canada (8,146/98,787) 8.25%

20/06/20 – World (463,312/8,799,219) 5.27% / USA (121,424/2,298,108) 5.28% / Canada (8,346/100,629) 8.29%

20/06/25 – World (485,690/9,562,348) 5.08% / USA (124,308/2,463,923) 5.05% / Canada (8,484/102,242) 8.30%

20/06/30 – World (509,112/10,449,109) 4.87% / USA (128,819/2,683,301) 4.80% / Canada (8,566/103,918) 8.24%

20/07/05 – World (534,398/11,420,445) 4.68% / USA (132,335/2,936,904) 4.51% / Canada (8,674/105,317) 8.24%

20/07/10 – World (558,305/12,429,824) 4.49% / USA (135,869/3,221,938) 4.22% / Canada (8,749/106,805) 8.19%

20/07/15 – World (582,320/13,504,012) 4.31% / USA (139,197/3,548,546) 3.92% / Canada (8,798/108,468) 8.11%

20/07/20 – World (609,603/14,673,689) 4.15% / USA (143,310/3,899,358) 3.68% / Canada (8,852/110,338) 8.02%

20/07/23 – World (631,128/15,415,206) 4.09% / USA (146,198/4,102,002) 3.56% / Canada (8,870/112,240) 7.90%

20/07/24 – World (637,538/15,707,391) 4.06% / USA (147,364/4,171,358) 3.53% / Canada (8,874/112,672)7.88%

20/07/25 – World (643,687/15,993,736) 4.02% / USA (148,521/4,249,779) 3.49% / Canada (8,881/113,206) 7.84%

20/07/26 – World (649,156/16,235,989) 4.00% / USA (149,400/4,315,926) 3.46% / Canada (8,885/113,556) 7.82%

20/07/27 – World (652,921/16,451,551) 3.97% / USA (149,852/4,372,056) 3.43% / Canada (8,890/113,911) 7.80%

20/07/28 – World (657,454/16,687,885) 3.94% / USA (150,500/4,434,185) 3.39% / Canada (8,901/114,597) 7.77%

20/07/29 – World (664,300/16,930,902) 3.92% / USA (152,358/4,498,887) 3.39% / Canada (8,912/114,994) 7.75%

20/07/30 – World (671,005/17,221,761) 3.90% / USA (153,864/4,569,173) 3.37% / Canada (8,917/115,470) 7.72%

20/07/31 – World (677,559/17,513,361) 3.87% / USA (155,306/4,635,226) 3.35% / Canada (8,929/115,799) 7.71%
​

More Americans have died from COVID-19 than die annually due to

Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease – 154,596 –

COVID-19 is now the FOURTH largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the annual number of deaths from Accidents

– 161,374 – ​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 05 AUG 20.

*********************************************​

Dr. Fauci's (BA - Holy Cross, MD - Columbia) prediction of between 100,000 and 200,000 CIVID-19 deaths is CORRECT.

The “accuracy” of the “predictions” of the _[Fill in the Blank]_ who claimed he was so accurate that we should call him “Doctor”, who (as far as anyone knows) has no actual statistical knowledge whatsoever, and whose abysmal prediction record has been WRONG since 04 APR 20 (and is now OVER 1,400% too LOW) is no longer updated.

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 1,139 (YESTERDAY it was 1,093).

For the US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is above 900 for the SECOND day in a row..

If you can see any “huge” jump in death from

​

then you are doing better than I am.

View attachment 67286644​

IF the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, THEN the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US around the middle of October.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

TODAY'S CHARTS​

(based on Worldometer data as of 0001 Z FRI 31 JUL 20)

View attachment 67289539

View attachment 67289540

View attachment 67289541

View attachment 67289542

View attachment 67289543

EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)​

1. The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. If mortality increases and testing goes up proportionately, the index will be flat. If mortality increases and testing increases by a greater proportion, the index will go down. If mortality increases and testing increases by a lesser proportion, the index will go up. If mortality - oh heck, you get the idea. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".
   *
2. Trend lines have been color coded:
   
   • LINEAR trend lines are GREEN. Those tend to be the least responsive to the latest developments.
     *
   • SECOND ORDER POLYNOMIAL trend lines are RED. For small numbers of data points they tend to be excessively “frisky”.
     *
   • For second order polynomial charts, the ACTUAL trend is likely to be someplace between that indicated by the GREEN trend line and the RED trend line.
     *
   • THIRD ORDER POLYNOMIAL trend lines are YELLOW. Those are used where they give a better data fit and the actual trend is likely to be pretty close to the YELLOW line.
   Thank you “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.
   *
3. The smaller the number of data points, the less reliable the trend lines are.
   *
4. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
5. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
6. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
7. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as of the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
8. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
9. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic

*************************************


(See World/China/USA/Canada Note 2 Below)

************************************



- - NOTES FOR – World/China/USA/Canada - -​

NOTE 1 –

As of 15 APR 2020 Canada and the United States of America use _the same criteria for reporting_ both “Total Cases” and “Total Deaths”. Prior to 15 APR 2020, the US did NOT include “probable” cases and deaths but only reported “confirmed” cases and deaths. Some other countries also use the same criteria for both “Total Cases” and “Total Deaths” as Canada and (now) the US use, but I don’t know which do and which don’t.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.
​

NOTE 3 –

More Americans have now died from COVID-19 than died due to Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease (154,596) - previously the #4 cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is Accidents (161,374), the #3 cause of death in the United States of America. IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 05 AUG 20.

For data on individual US States follow THIS LINK.
​

NOTE 4 –

Absolute numbers [Columns (A), (B), and (C)] have been adjusted to show what they would be if Canada had the same size population as the US. The ratio numbers remain the same.​

***********************************





​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) Mortality Rates
- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic –
US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.
​

20/05/30 – World (367,437/6,061,366) 6.06% / USA (104,550/1,794,153) 5.83% / Canada (6,979/89,418) 7.80%

20/06/05 – World (390,720/6,731,659) 5.85% / USA (110,210/1,924,591) 5.73% / Canada (7,637/93,726) 8.15%

20/06/10 – World (413,773/7,356,287) 5.63% / USA (114,189/2,046,577) 5.58% / Canada (7,897/96,653) 8.17%

20/06/15 – World (436,209/8,024,836) 5.44% / USA (117,859/2.162,406) 5.45% / Canada (8,146/98,787) 8.25%

20/06/20 – World (463,312/8,799,219) 5.27% / USA (121,424/2,298,108) 5.28% / Canada (8,346/100,629) 8.29%

20/06/25 – World (485,690/9,562,348) 5.08% / USA (124,308/2,463,923) 5.05% / Canada (8,484/102,242) 8.30%

20/06/30 – World (509,112/10,449,109) 4.87% / USA (128,819/2,683,301) 4.80% / Canada (8,566/103,918) 8.24%

20/07/05 – World (534,398/11,420,445) 4.68% / USA (132,335/2,936,904) 4.51% / Canada (8,674/105,317) 8.24%

20/07/10 – World (558,305/12,429,824) 4.49% / USA (135,869/3,221,938) 4.22% / Canada (8,749/106,805) 8.19%

20/07/15 – World (582,320/13,504,012) 4.31% / USA (139,197/3,548,546) 3.92% / Canada (8,798/108,468) 8.11%

20/07/20 – World (609,603/14,673,689) 4.15% / USA (143,310/3,899,358) 3.68% / Canada (8,852/110,338) 8.02%

20/07/24 – World (637,538/15,707,391) 4.06% / USA (147,364/4,171,358) 3.53% / Canada (8,874/112,672)7.88%

20/07/25 – World (643,687/15,993,736) 4.02% / USA (148,521/4,249,779) 3.49% / Canada (8,881/113,206) 7.84%

20/07/26 – World (649,156/16,235,989) 4.00% / USA (149,400/4,315,926) 3.46% / Canada (8,885/113,556) 7.82%

20/07/27 – World (652,921/16,451,551) 3.97% / USA (149,852/4,372,056) 3.43% / Canada (8,890/113,911) 7.80%

20/07/28 – World (657,454/16,687,885) 3.94% / USA (150,500/4,434,185) 3.39% / Canada (8,901/114,597) 7.77%

20/07/29 – World (664,300/16,930,902) 3.92% / USA (152,358/4,498,887) 3.39% / Canada (8,912/114,994) 7.75%

20/07/30 – World (671,005/17,221,761) 3.90% / USA (153,864/4,569,173) 3.37% / Canada (8,917/115,470) 7.72%

20/07/31 – World (677,559/17,513,361) 3.87% / USA (155,306/4,635,226) 3.35% / Canada (8,929/115,799) 7.71%

20/08/01 – World (683,882/17,801,022) 3.84% / USA (156,772/4,707,401) 3.33% / Canada (8,935/116,312) 7.68%
​

More Americans have died from COVID-19 than die annually due to

Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease – 154,596 –

COVID-19 is now the FOURTH largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the annual number of deaths from Accidents

– 161,374 – ​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 05 AUG 20.

*********************************************​

Dr. Fauci's (BA - Holy Cross, MD - Columbia) prediction of between 100,000 and 200,000 CIVID-19 deaths is CORRECT.

The “accuracy” of the “predictions” of the _[Fill in the Blank]_ who claimed he was so accurate that we should call him “Doctor”, who (as far as anyone knows) has no actual statistical knowledge whatsoever, and whose abysmal prediction record has been WRONG since 04 APR 20 (and is now OVER 1,400% too LOW) is no longer updated.

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 1,179 (YESTERDAY it was 1,139).

For the US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is above 900 for the THIRD day in a row (and is likely to exceed 1,000 per day by 05 AUG 20).

If you can see any “huge” JUMP in death from

​

then you are doing better than I am, but the trend lines don’t look all that good.

View attachment 67286644​

IF the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, THEN the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US around the middle of October.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

TODAY'S CHARTS​

(based on Worldometer data as of 0001 Z SAT 01 AUG 20)











EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)​

1. The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. If mortality increases and testing goes up proportionately, the index will be flat. If mortality increases and testing increases by a greater proportion, the index will go down. If mortality increases and testing increases by a lesser proportion, the index will go up. If mortality - oh heck, you get the idea. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".
   *
2. Trend lines have been color coded:
   
   • LINEAR trend lines are GREEN. Those tend to be the least responsive to the latest developments.
     *
   • SECOND ORDER POLYNOMIAL trend lines are RED. For small numbers of data points they tend to be excessively “frisky”.
     *
   • For second order polynomial charts, the ACTUAL trend is likely to be someplace between that indicated by the GREEN trend line and the RED trend line.
     *
   • THIRD ORDER POLYNOMIAL trend lines are YELLOW. Those are used where they give a better data fit and the actual trend is likely to be pretty close to the YELLOW line.
   Thank you “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.
   *
3. The smaller the number of data points, the less reliable the trend lines are.
   *
4. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
5. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
6. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
7. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as of the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
8. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
9. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic

*************************************


(See World/China/USA/Canada Note 2 Below)

************************************



- - NOTES FOR – World/China/USA/Canada - -​

NOTE 1 –

As of 15 APR 2020 Canada and the United States of America use _the same criteria for reporting_ both “Total Cases” and “Total Deaths”. Prior to 15 APR 2020, the US did NOT include “probable” cases and deaths but only reported “confirmed” cases and deaths. Some other countries also use the same criteria for both “Total Cases” and “Total Deaths” as Canada and (now) the US use, but I don’t know which do and which don’t.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.
​

NOTE 3 –

More Americans have now died from COVID-19 than died due to Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease (154,596) - previously the #4 cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is Accidents (161,374), the #3 cause of death in the United States of America. IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 05 AUG 20.

For data on individual US States follow THIS LINK.
​

NOTE 4 –

Absolute numbers [Columns (A), (B), and (C)] have been adjusted to show what they would be if Canada had the same size population as the US. The ratio numbers remain the same.​

***********************************





​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) Mortality Rates
- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic –
US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.
​

20/05/30 – World (367,437/6,061,366) 6.06% / USA (104,550/1,794,153) 5.83% / Canada (6,979/89,418) 7.80%

20/06/05 – World (390,720/6,731,659) 5.85% / USA (110,210/1,924,591) 5.73% / Canada (7,637/93,726) 8.15%

20/06/10 – World (413,773/7,356,287) 5.63% / USA (114,189/2,046,577) 5.58% / Canada (7,897/96,653) 8.17%

20/06/15 – World (436,209/8,024,836) 5.44% / USA (117,859/2.162,406) 5.45% / Canada (8,146/98,787) 8.25%

20/06/20 – World (463,312/8,799,219) 5.27% / USA (121,424/2,298,108) 5.28% / Canada (8,346/100,629) 8.29%

20/06/25 – World (485,690/9,562,348) 5.08% / USA (124,308/2,463,923) 5.05% / Canada (8,484/102,242) 8.30%

20/06/30 – World (509,112/10,449,109) 4.87% / USA (128,819/2,683,301) 4.80% / Canada (8,566/103,918) 8.24%

20/07/05 – World (534,398/11,420,445) 4.68% / USA (132,335/2,936,904) 4.51% / Canada (8,674/105,317) 8.24%

20/07/10 – World (558,305/12,429,824) 4.49% / USA (135,869/3,221,938) 4.22% / Canada (8,749/106,805) 8.19%

20/07/15 – World (582,320/13,504,012) 4.31% / USA (139,197/3,548,546) 3.92% / Canada (8,798/108,468) 8.11%

20/07/20 – World (609,603/14,673,689) 4.15% / USA (143,310/3,899,358) 3.68% / Canada (8,852/110,338) 8.02%

20/07/25 – World (643,687/15,993,736) 4.02% / USA (148,521/4,249,779) 3.49% / Canada (8,881/113,206) 7.84%

20/07/26 – World (649,156/16,235,989) 4.00% / USA (149,400/4,315,926) 3.46% / Canada (8,885/113,556) 7.82%

20/07/27 – World (652,921/16,451,551) 3.97% / USA (149,852/4,372,056) 3.43% / Canada (8,890/113,911) 7.80%

20/07/28 – World (657,454/16,687,885) 3.94% / USA (150,500/4,434,185) 3.39% / Canada (8,901/114,597) 7.77%

20/07/29 – World (664,300/16,930,902) 3.92% / USA (152,358/4,498,887) 3.39% / Canada (8,912/114,994) 7.75%

20/07/30 – World (671,005/17,221,761) 3.90% / USA (153,864/4,569,173) 3.37% / Canada (8,917/115,470) 7.72%

20/07/31 – World (677,559/17,513,361) 3.87% / USA (155,306/4,635,226) 3.35% / Canada (8,929/115,799) 7.71%

20/08/01 – World (683,882/17,801,022) 3.84% / USA (156,772/4,707,401) 3.33% / Canada (8,935/116,312) 7.68%

20/08/02 – World (689,584/18,055,630) 3.82% / USA (157,921/4,765,155) 3.31% / Canada (8,941/116,599) 7.67%
​

More Americans have died from COVID-19 than die annually due to

Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease – 154,596 –

COVID-19 is now the FOURTH largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the annual number of deaths from Accidents

– 161,374 –

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 05 AUG 20.


*********************************************​

Dr. Fauci's (BA - Holy Cross, MD - Columbia) prediction of between 100,000 and 200,000 CIVID-19 deaths is CORRECT.

The “accuracy” of the “predictions” of the _[Fill in the Blank]_ who claimed he was so accurate that we should call him “Doctor”, who (as far as anyone knows) has no actual statistical knowledge whatsoever, and whose abysmal prediction record has been WRONG since 04 APR 20 (and is now OVER 1,425% too LOW) is no longer updated.

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 1,217 (YESTERDAY it was 1,179).

For the US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is above 1,000 for the FIRST day since 06 JUN 20.

If you can see any huge JUMP]/b] in death from

​

then you are doing better than I am, but the trend lines don’t look all that good.

View attachment 67286644​

IF the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, THEN the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US around the middle of October.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

TODAY'S CHARTS​

(based on Worldometer data as of 0001 Z SUN 02 AUG 20)











EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)​

1. The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. If mortality increases and testing goes up proportionately, the index will be flat. If mortality increases and testing increases by a greater proportion, the index will go down. If mortality increases and testing increases by a lesser proportion, the index will go up. If mortality - oh heck, you get the idea. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".
   *
2. Trend lines have been color coded:
   
   • LINEAR trend lines are GREEN. Those tend to be the least responsive to the latest developments.
     *
   • SECOND ORDER POLYNOMIAL trend lines are RED. For small numbers of data points they tend to be excessively “frisky”.
     *
   • For second order polynomial charts, the ACTUAL trend is likely to be someplace between that indicated by the GREEN trend line and the RED trend line.
     *
   • THIRD ORDER POLYNOMIAL trend lines are YELLOW. Those are used where they give a better data fit and the actual trend is likely to be pretty close to the YELLOW line.
   Thank you “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.
   *
3. The smaller the number of data points, the less reliable the trend lines are.
   *
4. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
5. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
6. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
7. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as of the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
8. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
9. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic

*************************************


(See World/China/USA/Canada Note 2 Below)

************************************



- - NOTES FOR – World/China/USA/Canada - -​

NOTE 1 –

As of 15 APR 2020 Canada and the United States of America use _the same criteria for reporting_ both “Total Cases” and “Total Deaths”. Prior to 15 APR 2020, the US did NOT include “probable” cases and deaths but only reported “confirmed” cases and deaths. Some other countries also use the same criteria for both “Total Cases” and “Total Deaths” as Canada and (now) the US use, but I don’t know which do and which don’t.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.
​

NOTE 3 –

More Americans have now died from COVID-19 than died due to Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease (154,596) - previously the #4 cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is Accidents (161,374), the #3 cause of death in the United States of America. IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 05 AUG 20.

For data on individual US States follow THIS LINK.
​

NOTE 4 –

Absolute numbers [Columns (A), (B), and (C)] have been adjusted to show what they would be if Canada had the same size population as the US. The ratio numbers remain the same.​

***********************************





​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) Mortality Rates
- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic –
US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.
​

20/05/30 – World (367,437/6,061,366) 6.06% / USA (104,550/1,794,153) 5.83% / Canada (6,979/89,418) 7.80%

20/06/05 – World (390,720/6,731,659) 5.85% / USA (110,210/1,924,591) 5.73% / Canada (7,637/93,726) 8.15%

20/06/10 – World (413,773/7,356,287) 5.63% / USA (114,189/2,046,577) 5.58% / Canada (7,897/96,653) 8.17%

20/06/15 – World (436,209/8,024,836) 5.44% / USA (117,859/2.162,406) 5.45% / Canada (8,146/98,787) 8.25%

20/06/20 – World (463,312/8,799,219) 5.27% / USA (121,424/2,298,108) 5.28% / Canada (8,346/100,629) 8.29%

20/06/25 – World (485,690/9,562,348) 5.08% / USA (124,308/2,463,923) 5.05% / Canada (8,484/102,242) 8.30%

20/06/30 – World (509,112/10,449,109) 4.87% / USA (128,819/2,683,301) 4.80% / Canada (8,566/103,918) 8.24%

20/07/05 – World (534,398/11,420,445) 4.68% / USA (132,335/2,936,904) 4.51% / Canada (8,674/105,317) 8.24%

20/07/10 – World (558,305/12,429,824) 4.49% / USA (135,869/3,221,938) 4.22% / Canada (8,749/106,805) 8.19%

20/07/15 – World (582,320/13,504,012) 4.31% / USA (139,197/3,548,546) 3.92% / Canada (8,798/108,468) 8.11%

20/07/20 – World (609,603/14,673,689) 4.15% / USA (143,310/3,899,358) 3.68% / Canada (8,852/110,338) 8.02%

20/07/25 – World (643,687/15,993,736) 4.02% / USA (148,521/4,249,779) 3.49% / Canada (8,881/113,206) 7.84%

20/07/27 – World (652,921/16,451,551) 3.97% / USA (149,852/4,372,056) 3.43% / Canada (8,890/113,911) 7.80%

20/07/28 – World (657,454/16,687,885) 3.94% / USA (150,500/4,434,185) 3.39% / Canada (8,901/114,597) 7.77%

20/07/29 – World (664,300/16,930,902) 3.92% / USA (152,358/4,498,887) 3.39% / Canada (8,912/114,994) 7.75%

20/07/30 – World (671,005/17,221,761) 3.90% / USA (153,864/4,569,173) 3.37% / Canada (8,917/115,470) 7.72%

20/07/31 – World (677,559/17,513,361) 3.87% / USA (155,306/4,635,226) 3.35% / Canada (8,929/115,799) 7.71%

20/08/01 – World (683,882/17,801,022) 3.84% / USA (156,772/4,707,401) 3.33% / Canada (8,935/116,312) 7.68%

20/08/02 – World (689,584/18,055,630) 3.82% / USA (157,921/4,765,155) 3.31% / Canada (8,941/116,599) 7.67%

20/08/03 – World (693,466/18,266,104) 3.80% / USA (158,375/4,814,364) 3.29% / Canada (8,945/116,884) 7.65%
​

More Americans have died from COVID-19 than die annually due to

Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease – 154,596 –

COVID-19 is now the FOURTH largest cause of death in the US.

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the annual number of deaths from Accidents

– 161,374 –

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 05 AUG 20.


*********************************************​

Dr. Fauci's (BA - Holy Cross, MD - Columbia) prediction of between 100,000 and 200,000 CIVID-19 deaths is CORRECT.

The “accuracy” of the “predictions” of the _[Fill in the Blank]_ who claimed he was so accurate that we should call him “Doctor”, who (as far as anyone knows) has no actual statistical knowledge whatsoever, and whose abysmal prediction record has been WRONG since 04 APR 20 (and is now OVER 1,425% too LOW) is no longer updated.

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 1,218 (YESTERDAY it was 1,217).

For the US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is above 1,000 for the SECOND day in a row.

If you can see any huge JUMP]/b] in death from

​

then you are doing better than I am, but the trend lines don’t look all that good.

View attachment 67286644​

IF the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, THEN the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US around the end of October.

 

[Eatomus]

Actually with virtually no reported deaths from the CDC due to Asthma , COPD , and Lower Respiratory Disease, Lung Cancers, in 2020 , America is ahead of the game in terms of deaths .
The ability of Covid to take control of all deaths, to the deference of all other disease, has actually lowered the total death numbers for America .
Check yourself high speed.
Six of one LESS than a half dozen of the other.
Winning!

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

TODAY'S CHARTS​

(based on Worldometer data as of 0001 Z MON 03 AUG 20)











EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)​

1. The "Mortality Index" chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. If mortality increases and testing goes up proportionately, the index will be flat. If mortality increases and testing increases by a greater proportion, the index will go down. If mortality increases and testing increases by a lesser proportion, the index will go up. If mortality - oh heck, you get the idea. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".
   *
2. Trend lines have been color coded:
   
   • LINEAR trend lines are GREEN. Those tend to be the least responsive to the latest developments.
     *
   • SECOND ORDER POLYNOMIAL trend lines are RED. For small numbers of data points they tend to be excessively “frisky”.
     *
   • For second order polynomial charts, the ACTUAL trend is likely to be someplace between that indicated by the GREEN trend line and the RED trend line.
     *
   • THIRD ORDER POLYNOMIAL trend lines are YELLOW. Those are used where they give a better data fit and the actual trend is likely to be pretty close to the YELLOW line.
   Thank you “Jay59” for the upgrading suggestion.
   *
3. The smaller the number of data points, the less reliable the trend lines are.
   *
4. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
5. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
6. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
7. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as of the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
8. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
   *
9. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Actually with virtually no reported deaths from the CDC due to Asthma , COPD , and Lower Respiratory Disease, Lung Cancers, in 2020 , America is ahead of the game in terms of deaths .
The ability of Covid to take control of all deaths, to the deference of all other disease, has actually lowered the total death numbers for America .
Check yourself high speed.
Six of one LESS than a half dozen of the other.
Winning!

The number that I used was the annual average number issued by the CDC.

Yes, I agree, that if someone with COPD contracts an active case of COVID-19, they are likely to die from COVID-19 rather than COPD.

Of course if someone with COPD drives their car into a bridge abutment at 120 mph, they are likely to die from a MVA rather than COPD - aren't they?

You might be interested in reading "Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, March to May 2020" (from the AMA), which finds that excess deaths are up by even more than the number of COVID-19 related deaths. What that means is that "America is ahead of the game in terms of deaths." is simply a crock of bovine excrement that has been left to age in the sun for three weeks.

As noted in Post 1, this thread is intended to be a source of information distribution and not argumentative and spam posts.

If you have concrete and practical suggestions for improving the quality of the data, I'm most happy to receive them.

As I state in Note 4 to the "Today's Charts" entry

Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
​

 

[Eatomus]

The number that I used was the annual average number issued by the CDC.

Yes, I agree, that if someone with COPD contracts an active case of COVID-19, they are likely to die from COVID-19 rather than COPD.

Of course if someone with COPD drives their car into a bridge abutment at 120 mph, they are likely to die from a MVA rather than COPD - aren't they?

You might be interested in reading "Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, March to May 2020" (from the AMA), which finds that excess deaths are up by even more than the number of COVID-19 related deaths. What that means is that "America is ahead of the game in terms of deaths." is simply a crock of bovine excrement that has been left to age in the sun for three weeks.

As noted in Post 1, this thread is intended to be a source of information distribution and not argumentative and spam posts.

If you have concrete and practical suggestions for improving the quality of the data, I'm most happy to receive them.

As I state in Note 4 to the "Today's Charts" entry

Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
​

I'll take the CDC's scientific based word that 0.0 % deaths from Asthma, Emphysema, Lung Cancers, Chronic COPD, & pneumonia have occurred so far in 2020 due to Covid-19's predominant control over virtually all other respiratory disease .
Drama filled data based on pure emotional pleading notwithstanding .
The CDC has the numbers on the 0.0% deaths from any other non-covid respiratory disease you can name in 2020 crumudgeon dude .
Covid -19 eliminating all other forms of respiratory disease combined is saving lives .
Winning !