Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19

[TU Curmudgeon]

DATA SOURCE - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic

*************************************


(See World/China/USA/Canada Note 2 Below)

************************************



- - NOTES FOR – World/China/USA/Canada - -​

NOTE 1 –

As of 15 APR 2020 Canada and the United States of America use _the same criteria for reporting_ both “Total Cases” and “Total Deaths”. Prior to 15 APR 2020, the US did NOT include “probable” cases and deaths but only reported “confirmed” cases and deaths. Some other countries also use the same criteria for both “Total Cases” and “Total Deaths” as Canada and (now) the US use, but I don’t know which do and which don’t.​

NOTE 2 –

Chinese figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.

US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.
​

NOTE 3 –

More Americans have now died from COVID-19 than died due to World War I (116,516).

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is the number of deaths (142,141) due to CVA (“Stroke”), the #5 cause of deaths in the USA.

For data on individual US States follow THIS LINK.
​

NOTE 4 –

Absolute numbers [Columns (A), (B), and (C)] have been adjusted to show what they would be if Canada had the same size population as the US. The ratio numbers remain the same.​

***********************************






​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Total Deaths/Total Cases) Mortality Rates
- Data source - COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic –
US figures are not accepted as reliable at this time.
​

20/05/20 – World (325,421/5,011,163) 6.49% / USA (93,558/1,571,131) 5.95% / Canada (5,912/79,112) 7.47%

20/05/25 – World (347,202/5,529,657) 6.28% / USA (99,384/1,688,709) 5.88% / Canada (6,424/84,699) 7.58%

20/05/30 – World (367,437/6,061,366) 6.06% / USA (104,550/1,794,153) 5.83% / Canada (6,979/89,418) 7.80%

20/06/05 – World (390,720/6,731,659) 5.85% / USA (110,210/1,924,591) 5.73% / Canada (7,637/93,726) 8.15%

20/06/10 – World (413,773/7,356,287) 5.63% / USA (114,189/2,046,577) 5.58% / Canada (7,897/96,653) 8.17%

20/06/15 – World (436,209/8,024,836) 5.44% / USA (117,859/2.162,406) 5.45% / Canada (8,146/98,787) 8.25%

20/06/20 – World (463,312/8,799,219) 5.27% / USA (121,424/2,298,108) 5.28% / Canada (8,346/100,629) 8.29%

20/06/25 – World (485,690/9,562,348) 5.08% / USA (124,308/2,463,923) 5.05% / Canada (8,484/102,242) 8.30%

20/06/30 – World (509,112/10,449,109) 4.87% / USA (128,819/2,683,301) 4.80% / Canada (8,566/103,918) 8.24%

20/07/05 – World (534,398/11,420,445) 4.68% / USA (132,335/2,936,904) 4.51% / Canada (8,674/105,317) 8.24%

20/07/09 – World (553,013/12,209,393) 4.53% / USA (134,920/3,160,284) 4.27% / Canada (8,737/106,434) 8.21%

20/07/10 – World (558,305/12,429,824) 4.49% / USA (135,869/3,221,938) 4.22% / Canada (8,749/106,805) 8.19%

20/07/11 – World (563,716/12,664,695) 4.45% / USA (136,716/3,292,681) 4.15% / Canada (8,759/107,126) 8.18%

20/07/12 – World (568,321/12,873,542) 4.41% / USA (137,414/3,356,242) 4.09% / Canada (8,773/107,347) 8.17%

20/07/13 – World (572,310/13,069,861) 4.38% / USA (137,795/3,414,557) 4.04% / Canada (8,783/107,590) 8.16%

20/07/14 – World (576,524/13,276,123) 4.34% / USA (138,291/3,481,680) 3.97% / Canada (8,790/108,155) 8.13%

20/07/15 – World (582,320/13,504,012) 4.31% / USA (139,197/3,548,546) 3.92% / Canada (8,798/108,468) 8.11%

20/07/16 – World (587,835/13,734,525) 4.28% / USA (140,185/3,618,739) 3.87% / Canada (8,810/108,829) 8.10%
​

More Americans have died from COVID-19 than died due to

World War I (116,516) or the 1957 “Asian Flu” (~116,000).

The next "Grim Mortality Milestone” is

– 142,142 –

(the annual number of deaths from CVA [“Stroke”] and the #5 cause of death in the USA).​

IF the current trends continue, THEN this number will be reached on or about 18 JUL 2020.

*********************************************​

Dr. Fauci's (BA - Holy Cross, MD - Columbia) prediction of between 100,000 and 200,000 CIVID-19 deaths is CORRECT.

The “accuracy” of the “predictions” of the _[Fill in the Blank]_ who claimed he was so accurate that we should call him “Doctor”, who (as far as anyone knows) has no actual statistical knowledge whatsoever, and whose abysmal prediction record has been WRONG since 04 APR 20 (and is now OVER 1,250% too LOW) is no longer updated.

The “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” TODAY is 752 (YESTERDAY it was 743).

For the US, the 10 day average of the “Rolling 7 day US average deaths per day” is below 700 for the SIXTH day in a row.

If you can see any huge jump in death from

​

then you are doing better than I am (however deaths ARE a “trailing indicator” and the trend lines are unreliable due to insufficiency of data points.

COVID-19 is now the SIXTH largest cause of death in the United States of America, having passed the annual rate (116,103) for Alzheimer’s Disease.

View attachment 67286644​

IF the current trends (Linear projection, 7 day average number of deaths) continue, THEN the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 in the US should fall below the average number of daily murders in the US in the middle of August.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

TODAY'S CHARTS​

(based on data as of 0001 Z THU 13 JUL 20)











It appears that the "7 Day Average" chart is the most useful of the group.

EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR GRADUATES OF “PIOOYA STATISTICS” CLASSES TAUGHT BY INNUMERATE DOLTS
(who probably have a BA [Pla-Doh], a BS [Statistics], and a PhD [Finger Painting] from the University of Numerology)​

1. The YELLOW trend lines are "polynomial" trend lines and those tend to be "livelier" than "linear" trend lines. Where appropriate, those trend lines have been upgraded from “cubic” to “quadratic” and now make even more sense. Thank you “Jay59” for the suggestion.
   *
2. The smaller the number of data points, the less reliable the trend lines are.
   *
3. Further suggestions to improve the accuracy of the PROJECTIONS are welcomed. “I don’t like the data or what generally accepted mathematical formulae say about the data – so you are full of crap.” comments will be ignored.
   *
4. The GREEN trend lines are “linear” trend line and those tend to be unresponsive to later developments.
   *
5. The ACTUAL TREND is likely to be someplace between that indicated by the GREEN trend line and the YELLOW trend line.
   *
6. The “7 Day Rolling Average” chart (which is less volatile than the “Daily Deaths” chart and less “lethargic” than the “10 Day Average of Averages” chart) also has a RED “exponential” driven trend line and a BLUE “power” driven trend line (for the chronically “intensely meticulously totally detail oriented”).
   *
7. Reported deaths normally take dips on weekends (which means the Sunday and Monday numbers are lower than the actual numbers of deaths and the Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are higher),
   *
8. Reported deaths normally take dips around “emotionally significant dates” (sometimes known as “The ‘Christmas’ Effect” or “The ‘Birthday’ Effect”).
   *
9. The trend lines are based on actual current and past data and are footed on the assumption that the conditions current as the generation of the chart do not change.
   *
10. IF those conditions do change THEN the trend lines WILL change. This, unlike what some dolt will tell you, does NOT mean that the trend lines were wrong when calculated.
    *
11. Simply pulling numbers out of your butt, the way that some dolts do, and then using those PIOOYA numbers to claim expertise just doesn’t hack it in the real world (well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC it doesn’t).

 

[calamity]

Florida has 14,000 new cases and 160 deaths today. There are the worst numbers to date, worse even than NY during their peak.

MAGA!

 

[calamity]

Arizona and Texas counties hit hard by coronavirus bring in refrigerated trucks as morgues fill up

MAGA indeed

 

[Conservative]

Arizona and Texas counties hit hard by coronavirus bring in refrigerated trucks as morgues fill up

MAGA indeed

Individual freedom and personal choices don't seem to resonate in that liberal utopia mind of yours. How does that personal choice affect you?

 

[Conservative]

Individual freedom and personal choices don't seem to resonate in that liberal utopia mind of yours. How does that personal choice affect you?

Since you aren't in one of those morgues why does this bother you so much? Please don't give us the liberal bull**** that you really care about someone else, this is all politics to you meaning absolutely nothing except to promote putting a liberal back in the WH so that you can have them take care of you and your personal responsibility issues.

Don't let the pesky little facts get in the way of your partisan rants. Let's see, New York the fourth largest state has 25003 deaths, Florida the third largest 4677 deaths. TX the second largest state 3432 deaths. Don't see you even mentioning California, wonder why?

7/15/2020 Cases Deaths % of infections


United States 3533905 138358 3.9%

New York 404006 25003 6.2%

California 347634 7227 2.1%

Florida 315775 4677 1.5%

Texas 282365 3432 1.2%

 

[NWRatCon]

I thought this graphic was helpful:

 

[ElChupacabra]

Since you aren't in one of those morgues why does this bother you so much? Please don't give us the liberal bull**** that you really care about someone else, this is all politics to you meaning absolutely nothing except to promote putting a liberal back in the WH so that you can have them take care of you and your personal responsibility issues.

Don't let the pesky little facts get in the way of your partisan rants. Let's see, New York the fourth largest state has 25003 deaths, Florida the third largest 4677 deaths. TX the second largest state 3432 deaths. Don't see you even mentioning California, wonder why?

7/15/2020 Cases Deaths % of infections


United States 3533905 138358 3.9%

New York 404006 25003 6.2%

California 347634 7227 2.1%

Florida 315775 4677 1.5%

Texas 282365 3432 1.2%

The context you continue to ignore is what is happening now in different parts of the country, and how the impact of the disease is impacting hospitals and economic recovery.

 

[Conservative]

The context you continue to ignore is what is happening now in different parts of the country, and how the impact of the disease is impacting hospitals and economic recovery.

The deaths are total and ignore nothing, Biased partisan liberal rhetoric doesn't change the reality, since the virus was reported Florida has 4677 deaths. What part of personal responsibility don't you understand, here we go again, you deciding what is right for someone else. Do what you are supposed to do and you won't be affected

 

[ElChupacabra]

The deaths are total and ignore nothing, Biased partisan liberal rhetoric doesn't change the reality, since the virus was reported Florida has 4677 deaths. What part of personal responsibility don't you understand, here we go again, you deciding what is right for someone else. Do what you are supposed to do and you won't be affected

I see you're still repeating the same opinion despite the obvious failure of "personal responsibility". You then state I am deciding what's right for someone else when this isn't a matter of preference; it's no different than trying to stop someone from walking in front of a moving car; or is that a politically ideological debate? It's interesting to see someone defend failure so adamantly.

 

[Conservative]

I see you're still repeating the same opinion despite the obvious failure of "personal responsibility". You then state I am deciding what's right for someone else when this isn't a matter of preference; it's no different than trying to stop someone from walking in front of a moving car; or is that a politically ideological debate? It's interesting to see someone defend failure so adamantly.

Not as easy for me seeing someone so willing to give up personal freedoms due to individual choices made. Maybe it is my 35 years in the private sector and your lack of experience but you can change only that which you have control over, what others do with their own personal responsibility issues is up to them not you or anyone else

 

[ElChupacabra]

Not as easy for me seeing someone so willing to give up personal freedoms due to individual choices made. Maybe it is my 35 years in the private sector and your lack of experience but you can change only that which you have control over, what others do with their own personal responsibility issues is up to them not you or anyone else

Yet you continue to not address the failure of "individual choices made". It may make sense from a desire to be obstinate ideologically, but there's usually a point where one has to concede that a particular practice just doesn't work regardless of whether one thinks it should. I have been in the private sector just 10 years less than you, and at the large corporate level where I have had to present information and analysis to senior management. You continually repeat this defeatist idea that there is no way people can decide to act in unison for their own benefit; it flies in the face of how society actually works.

 

[Conservative]

Yet you continue to not address the failure of "individual choices made". It may make sense from a desire to be obstinate ideologically, but there's usually a point where one has to concede that a particular practice just doesn't work regardless of whether one thinks it should. I have been in the private sector just 10 years less than you, and at the large corporate level where I have had to present information and analysis to senior management. You continually repeat this defeatist idea that there is no way people can decide to act in unison for their own benefit; it flies in the face of how society actually works.

It is not my or your responsibility to judge someone else's personal choices, you raise you family and teach them to make choices and even then they will make bad ones as well as good ones, then what? I am waiting for you to tell us how you control someone else's personal choice decisions? You want to arrest everyone going to the beaches in Florida, California, TX, N.J. and do what with them? acting in unison on a personal responsibility issue? How do you do that with 328 million people?

 

[NWRatCon]

I didn't think that this was the purpose of this thread. I thought it was more along the lines of just providing the data for discussions on other threads.

 

[ElChupacabra]

It is not my or your responsibility to judge someone else's personal choices, you raise you family and teach them to make choices and even then they will make bad ones as well as good ones, then what?

If it affects all of our situations, then yes, much in the way we penalize other "personal choices" which have shared consequences. If someone's actions leads to my inability to open up my business, or go back to work, then it's more than just about an individual's choice. Do the people who have to live with the consequences of others have no say?

I am waiting for you to tell us how you control someone else's personal choice decisions? You want to arrest everyone going to the beaches in Florida, California, TX, N.J. and do what with them? acting in unison on a personal responsibility issue? How do you do that with 328 million people?

You may want to look at how other nations have handled it, and that's mainly been through clear and properly communicated policies and understanding of the threat a disease is to everyone. This country is the prime example of how a lack of those two things turns things into a crap show. Much of the poor choices we're seeing now are in part because of the mixed messaging throughout the country. If you think this isn't possible, then I guess you're admitting that as a nation, we cannot work in unison in fighting disease. This does not bode well in the long run for just about anything.

 

[Conservative]

If it affects all of our situations, then yes, much in the way we penalize other "personal choices" which have shared consequences. If someone's actions leads to my inability to open up my business, or go back to work, then it's more than just about an individual's choice. Do the people who have to live with the consequences of others have no say?



You may want to look at how other nations have handled it, and that's mainly been through clear and properly communicated policies and understanding of the threat a disease is to everyone. This country is the prime example of how a lack of those two things turns things into a crap show. Much of the poor choices we're seeing now are in part because of the mixed messaging throughout the country. If you think this isn't possible, then I guess you're admitting that as a nation, we cannot work in unison in fighting disease. This does not bode well in the long run for just about anything.

I have looked at how other nations have handled it, letting the immune systems take over. Nothing is going to change your mind as you want to impose your values on others. If you do what you are supposed to do, it doesn't matter what someone else does. What is your solution for people who refuse to get tested, refuse to wear a mask, refuse social distancing? Easy to sit at home making wild claims with no proposals

 

[Conservative]

If it affects all of our situations, then yes, much in the way we penalize other "personal choices" which have shared consequences. If someone's actions leads to my inability to open up my business, or go back to work, then it's more than just about an individual's choice. Do the people who have to live with the consequences of others have no say?



You may want to look at how other nations have handled it, and that's mainly been through clear and properly communicated policies and understanding of the threat a disease is to everyone. This country is the prime example of how a lack of those two things turns things into a crap show. Much of the poor choices we're seeing now are in part because of the mixed messaging throughout the country. If you think this isn't possible, then I guess you're admitting that as a nation, we cannot work in unison in fighting disease. This does not bode well in the long run for just about anything.

Seems the focus is on infections but never recovery, how is the recovery rate in NJ or is that something that shouldn't be discussed? Can tell you that recovery rates depend on age but that reality is ignored, why?

 

[ElChupacabra]

Seems the focus is on infections but never recovery, how is the recovery rate in NJ or is that something that shouldn't be discussed?

We can discuss any recovery rate, but that doesn't negate the fact recoveries can be a mix of people recovering on their own or through hospitalization. The fact we have high rates of hospitalizations makes it a problem if you have a high rate of infections.

Can tell you that recovery rates depend on age but that reality is ignored, why?

It's not just age but co-morbidities. Again, if the amount of people being hospitalized increases, then it's a bit different than recoveries through people just sticking it out at home.

 

[Conservative]

We can discuss any recovery rate, but that doesn't negate the fact recoveries can be a mix of people recovering on their own or through hospitalization. The fact we have high rates of hospitalizations makes it a problem if you have a high rate of infections.



It's not just age but co-morbidities. Again, if the amount of people being hospitalized increases, then it's a bit different than recoveries through people just sticking it out at home.

again you offer no solutions just more rhetoric, I will focus on recovery while the left focuses on infections

 

[avatar]

Seems the focus is on infections but never recovery, how is the recovery rate in NJ or is that something that shouldn't be discussed? Can tell you that recovery rates depend on age but that reality is ignored, why?

Now the young are beginning to die. Not good news.

Deaths in the US are 1000 a day now, up 50% from last week.

 

[ElChupacabra]

I have looked at how other nations have handled it, letting the immune systems take over.

I'm not sure what country you're talking about, but all of the ones which are faring better now have taken measures to prevent the spread; this is the case throughout most of Europe, Asia, and Oceania. The nations which have followed the US style of management are all failing at containing the virus and experiencing continued economic impacts as a result.

Nothing is going to change your mind as you want to impose your values on others. If you do what you are supposed to do, it doesn't matter what someone else does. What is your solution for people who refuse to get tested, refuse to wear a mask, refuse social distancing? Easy to sit at home making wild claims with no proposals

It's not about "values", it's about effective measures. If people don't follow a standard practice, then a disease exploits the segments of the population which doesn't comply; the only "value" that matters in this context is the value of human lives. The simplest solution is to start communicating a cohesive strategy, allowing the medical experts to create guidelines and consistently reinforce the messaging so people understand the "why". In this regard the US has failed miserably, and is why we're seeing the results we are seeing. When you have people in positions of leadership downplaying a disease, and infusing safety protocols as part of a culture war, then this crap show is exactly what results. Will there be your anti vaxers and protocol flouters? Sure, but they won't be enabled by local government policy enabling them to spread disease.

 

[ElChupacabra]

again you offer no solutions just more rhetoric, I will focus on recovery while the left focuses on infections

It's not rhetoric; it's what is happening.

 

[Conservative]

Now the young are beginning to die. Not good news.

Deaths in the US are 1000 a day now, up 50% from last week.

What is the recovery rate in your state? Infection Rate 1%

 

[Conservative]

I'm not sure what country you're talking about, but all of the ones which are faring better now have taken measures to prevent the spread; this is the case throughout most of Europe, Asia, and Oceania. The nations which have followed the US style of management are all failing at containing the virus and experiencing continued economic impacts as a result.



It's not about "values", it's about effective measures. If people don't follow a standard practice, then a disease exploits the segments of the population which doesn't comply; the only "value" that matters in this context is the value of human lives. The simplest solution is to start communicating a cohesive strategy, allowing the medical experts to create guidelines and consistently reinforce the messaging so people understand the "why". In this regard the US has failed miserably, and is why we're seeing the results we are seeing. When you have people in positions of leadership downplaying a disease, and infusing safety protocols as part of a culture war, then this crap show is exactly what results. Will there be your anti vaxers and protocol flouters? Sure, but they won't be enabled by local government policy enabling them to spread disease.

And what does our Constitution allow here? what is your recovery rate?