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Current House Race Status...Running Tally -- And Fetterman Won The PA Senate Race!!

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29 House races are still undeclared.

Democrats are currently leading in 19 of these races.

Republicans are currently leading in 10 of these races.

Current House Pick-Up Tally, according to the Washington Post:

Republicans: 15 definite pickups (4 in FL, 4 in NY, VA-2, WI-3, IA-3, NJ-7, TN-5, TX-15, and AZ-2). +10 overall

Republicans have slight leads/projected to win in 1 race in Democratic-held districts: AZ-6

Republicans also have slight leads in 2 new/redrawn districts: CA-3 and NY-22.


Democrats: 5 definite pickups (NC-13, TX-34, IL-13, OH-1, and MI-3).

Democrats have slight leads/projected to win in 4 races in Republican-held districts: NM-2, WA-3, CA-22, and CA-27.

The Democrats also have a chance to win these 5 races in Republican-held districts : CO-3, CO-8, AZ-1, CA-41, and CA-45 as well, but the Washington Post currently predicts that the Republicans will barely win these races or there is currently no prediction.


Democrats need to lower Republican gains to +4 overall in order to maintain control of the House. Unlikely, but not impossible.

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Even if the GOP wins, which as you say seems likely, I think it's not going to be the hardcore MAGA GOP that we feared. That's not to say that there won't be consequences for losing control of the House - there certainly will be. But I think Democrats will be in a position to get some concessions once in a while. I still expect Republican special committees and baseless investigations.
 
multivita-man said:
Even if the GOP wins, which as you say seems likely, I think it's not going to be the hardcore MAGA GOP that we feared. That's not to say that there won't be consequences for losing control of the House - there certainly will be. But I think Democrats will be in a position to get some concessions once in a while. I still expect Republican special committees and baseless investigations.
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This House GOP will be more radical than the House GOP that they are replacing. This House GOP will have more election deniers.

Instead of 140 Republican members of the House willing to overturn Biden's victory like they did in 2020, there might now be over 200 Republican members in the House willing to do the same thing in 2024.

The good news is that they will have a difficult time leveraging all of their power, because they will have to basically have unanimous agreement among their caucus, since their majority is going to be so small.
 
If the ballot count tonight in Phoenix is favorable to the Democrats, they might be able to pickup the AZ-1 district. That will be a flip for the Democrats.
 
RIP U.S. Democracy said:
This House GOP will be more radical than the House GOP that they are replacing. This House GOP will have more election deniers.

Instead of 140 Republican members of the House willing to overturn Biden's victory like they did in 2020, there might now be over 200 Republican members in the House willing to do the same thing in 2024.

The good news is that they will have a difficult time leveraging all of their power, because they will have to basically have unanimous agreement among their caucus, since their majority is going to be so small.
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I suspect McCarthy probably lost his shot at the Speakership and will be replaced by Scalise.
 
NV-1, NV-3, and NV-4 have just been called for the Democrats. These are Democratic holds, not flips. But they are important holds.

The reason that NV-1, NV-3, and NV-4 were just called for the Democrats -- Clark County just released the results of 27,000 mail-in ballots and they were very favorable to the Democrats.

NV Senator Cortez-Mateo (D) is winning over 60% of the mail-in ballots in Clark County. She is now losing by less than 1,000 votes, with around 25,000 more mail-in ballots to count in Clark County. She is going to win that race.
 
Screenshot 2022-11-11 184713.webp

26 House races are still undeclared.

Democrats are currently leading in 16 of these races.

Republicans are currently leading in 10 of these races.

Current House Pick-Up Tally, according to the Washington Post:

Republicans: 15 definite pickups (4 in FL, 4 in NY, VA-2, WI-3, IA-3, NJ-7, TN-5, TX-15, and AZ-2). +10 overall

Republicans have slight leads/projected to win in 1 race in Democratic-held districts: AZ-6

Republicans also have slight leads in 2 new/redrawn districts: CA-3 and NY-22.


Democrats: 5 definite pickups (NC-13, TX-34, IL-13, OH-1, and MI-3).

Democrats have slight leads/projected to win in 4 races in Republican-held districts: NM-2, WA-3, CA-22, and CA-27.

The Democrats also have a chance to win these 5 races in Republican-held districts : CO-3, CO-8, AZ-1, CA-41, and CA-45, but the Washington Post currently predicts that the Republicans will barely win these races or there is currently no prediction.


Democrats need to lower Republican gains to +4 overall in order to maintain control of the House. Unlikely, but not impossible.
 
The Democrats just won 2 more House races, I believe CA-38 and CA-44. These are Dem holds, not flips.

The Democrats have a real shot at flipping AZ-1, based on the latest Maricopa County vote tally. The remaining 290,000 same day mail-in ballots were supposed to be favorable to Republicans, but that is not the case. These votes are actually favorable to Democrats and that is why Mark Kelly was just declared the winner of the AZ Senate race.
 
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24 House races are still undecided.

Democrats are currently leading in 14 of these races.

Republicans are currently leading in 10 of these races.

Current House Pick-Up Tally, according to the Washington Post:

Republicans: 15 definite pickups (4 in FL, 4 in NY, VA-2, WI-3, IA-3, NJ-7, TN-5, TX-15, and AZ-2). +10 overall

Republicans have slight leads/projected to win in 1 race in Democratic-held districts: AZ-6

Republicans also have slight leads in 2 new/redrawn districts: CA-3 and NY-22.


Democrats: 5 definite pickups (NC-13, TX-34, IL-13, OH-1, and MI-3).

Democrats have slight leads/projected to win in 4 races in Republican-held districts: NM-2, WA-3, CA-22, and CA-27.

The Democrats also have a chance to win these 5 races in Republican-held districts : CO-3, CO-8, AZ-1, CA-41, and CA-45, but the Washington Post currently predicts that the Republicans will barely win these races or there is currently no prediction.

The Democrats might have a real shot at winning AZ-1 now, based on the latest same day mail-in ballots reported in Maricopa County that came in about an hour ago. These same-day mail-in votes were supposed to trend heavily Republican, but they are trending Democrat instead. The Democrats are currently leading the AZ-1 race.


Democrats need to lower Republican gains to +4 overall in order to maintain control of the House. Unlikely, but not impossible.
 
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AZ-6 is also in parts of Maricopa County near Phoenix, just like AZ-1. The Democrats should definitely have a shot at winning both of the races, if the remaining 200,000 same day mail-in ballots continue to trend Democrat:


AZ-1: (82% counted):

Hodge (D): 155, 558 -- 50.7%
Schweikert (R): 151,529 -- 49.3%


AZ-6: (83% counted):

Ciscomani (R): 149,672 -- 50.5%
Engel (D): 146,766 -- 49.5%

AZ-1 would be a flip for Democrats. This would lower the current Republican advantage to +9 overall. Democrats need to lower the Republican advantage to +4 overall to maintain control of the House.

If the Democrats win both of these AZ races, then they really do have a legit shot at lowering the Republican advantage to +4 overall, if they can flip a few more Republican districts in CA, CO, NM, and WA. And the Democrats are currently favored to flip 4 seats in these CA, CO, NM, and WA Republican districts, as noted in post #111.
 
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The always loony and now completely off the rails House Freedom Caucus already going off before the GOP even has control of the House.

They want to institute the ability for any GOP Congressman to compel a "Confidence Vote" on the Speaker of the House at any time. We don't have a Parliament you IDIOTS and you could not manage such a process with any sort of order if your lives depended on it.

This is the sort of nonsense that prevents a GOP run House from getting to even any of the backbiting of the opposition Party that they are so eager to do. They are never done brawling with and backbiting each other to do anything since Newt Gingrich. As for passing Legislation or even attempting to...... forget that. They won't even be able to hold Show Votes much less real Votes. Well, maybe they can manage to hold a Show Vote on whether or not to HANG Joe Biden.

IDIOTS.....GOONS......Republican House members with control.
 
Meanwhile, McCarthy ponders what he will do with MTG IF he becomes Speaker and IF the first act of the House Freedom Caucus is not a vote to hang him.

McCarthy seriously considering a new sub-committee, the House Trailer Park Trash Sub-committee. McCarthy will have dozens of possible GOP members to choose from for this plum assignment.

MTG will be Committee Chair. Boebert will surely sit the Committee.

They will ponder pressing concerns like:
- why isn't the ability to swing from a horizontal bar considered noteworthy for a potential candidate for Congress
and
- why don't escort services get the respect they are due

Pressing stuff like that.
 
jnug said:
Meanwhile, McCarthy ponders what he will do with MTG IF he becomes Speaker and IF the first act of the House Freedom Caucus is not a vote to hang him.

McCarthy seriously considering a new sub-committee, the House Trailer Park Trash Sub-committee. McCarthy will have dozens of possible GOP members to choose from for this plum assignment.

MTG will be Committee Chair. Boebert will surely sit the Committee.

They will ponder pressing concerns like:
- why isn't the ability to swing from a horizontal bar considered noteworthy for a potential candidate for Congress
and
- why don't escort services get the respect they are due

Pressing stuff like that.
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Every time I see an idiot like MTG or Jim Jordan sitting in a committee meeting, I'm embarrassed for my country. Both of them are just ridiculous carnival barkers.

And even worse, they are dangerous threat to this country. Far more dangerous than any foreign threat.
 
Screenshot 2022-11-11 214547.png

24 House races are still undecided.


Current Washington Post predictions for these 24 races:

Democrats currently leading or predicted to win -- 14 races

Republicans currently leading or predicted to win -- 6 races

These 6 Republicans races are AZ-6, CA-3, CA-41, CA-45, CO-3, and NY-22.

Lauren Boebert's race is CO-3 and she might still lose, depending on how many votes there are still left to count in Pueblo County.


Based on the 20 races noted above, this is the current prediction:

Republicans: 217 House seats

Democrats: 214 House seats



Races with no current prediction (Washington Post is revising their prediction models) -- 4 races

The 4 races with no current Washington Post prediction will determine who gets to the 218 majority.

Those 4 races are AZ-1, CO-8, OR-5, and WA-3.

The Democrats are currently leading in AZ-1, CO-8, and WA-3. The Republicans are currently leading in OR-5.
 
One significant update regarding the battle for the House...

The Washington Post is currently NOT predicting a winner in the AZ-1 and AZ-6 races. Previously, the Washington Post predicted that the Republicans would barely win both of these races.

Based on how well the Democrats did last night in Maricopa County regarding 70,000 of the remaining 300,000 mail-in/drop box ballots, the Democrats have a real shot at winning both of these races. It was assumed that these remaining 300,000 ballots would favor the Republicans, but that is not the case.

Here is the current vote tally in both races:

AZ-1: (86% counted):

Hodge (D): 163, 440 -- 50.4%
Schweikert (R): 160,899 -- 49.6%


AZ-6: (87% counted):

Ciscomani (R): 155,311 -- 50.2%
Engel (D): 153,929 -- 49.8%
 
Screenshot 2022-11-11 214547.png

24 House races are still undecided.


Current Washington Post predictions for these 24 races:

Democrats currently leading or predicted to win -- 14 races

Republicans currently leading or predicted to win -- 5 races

These 5 Republicans races are CA-3, CA-41, CA-45, CO-3, and NY-22.

Lauren Boebert's race is CO-3 and she might still lose, depending on how many votes there are still left to count in Pueblo County.


Based on the 19 races noted above, this is the current prediction:

Republicans: 216 House seats

Democrats: 214 House seats



Races with no current prediction (Washington Post is revising their prediction models) -- 5 races

These 5 races with no current Washington Post prediction will determine who gets to the 218 majority.

Those 5 races are AZ-1, AZ-6, CO-8, OR-5, and WA-3.

The Democrats are currently leading in AZ-1, CO-8, and WA-3. The Republicans are currently leading in AZ-6 and OR-5.
 
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WA-3 has just been called for the Democrats! This is a flip for the Democrats.

Republican gains currently stand at +9 overall. The Democrats need to lower this to +4 overall in order to capture the House, which is the equivalent of 218 House seats.
 
Screenshot 2022-11-12 201414.webp

23 House races are still undecided.


Current Washington Post predictions for these 23 races:

Democrats currently leading or predicted to win -- 14 races

Republicans currently leading or predicted to win -- 5 races

These 5 Republicans races are CA-3, CA-41, CA-45, CO-3, and NY-22.

Lauren Boebert's race is CO-3 and she might still lose, depending on how many votes there are still left to count in Pueblo County.


Based on the 19 races noted above, this is the current prediction:

Republicans: 216 House seats
Democrats: 215 House seats



Races with no current prediction (Washington Post is revising their prediction models) -- 4 races

These 4 races with no current Washington Post prediction will determine who gets to the 218 majority.

Those 4 races are AZ-1, AZ-6, CO-8, and OR-5.

The Democrats are currently leading in AZ-1, and CO-8. The Republicans are currently leading in AZ-6 and OR-5.
 
Democrats just won CA-35, as expected. This is a Democratic hold, not a flip.
 
Screenshot 2022-11-12 202352.png

22 House races are still undecided.


Current Washington Post predictions for these 22 races:

Democrats currently leading or predicted to win -- 13 races

Republicans currently leading or predicted to win -- 5 races

These 5 Republicans races are CA-3, CA-41, CA-45, CO-3, and NY-22.

Lauren Boebert's race is CO-3 and she might still lose, depending on how many votes there are still left to count in Pueblo County.


Based on the 18 races noted above, this is the current prediction:

Republicans: 216 House seats
Democrats: 215 House seats



Races with no current prediction (Washington Post is revising their prediction models) -- 4 races

These 4 races with no current Washington Post prediction will determine who gets to the 218 majority.

These 4 races are AZ-1, AZ-6, CO-8, and OR-5.

The Democrats are currently leading in AZ-1 and CO-8. The Republicans are currently leading in AZ-6 and OR-5.
 
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I just heard on MSNBC that the Democrats won CO-8. That would be huge, that would be another flip for Democrats.

The Washington Post is not showing this yet.
 
So Kirkmeyer (R) conceded the CO-8 race a couple of days ago. However, the Washington Post still has this race as extremely close.

Kirkmeyer may have conceded too soon.

CO-8: (98% counted)

Caraveo (D): 112,258 (48.4%)
Kirkmeyer (R): 110,567 (47.7%)
 
The Democrats have hung onto CA-26, as expected. That is a gain, not a flip.
 
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