Covid Update You Need to Know - Charts Suggest Pandemic Overblown Hype

[maxparrish]

Amid all the lurid headlines and bios of COVID deaths of a bunch of "celebrities" you never heard of (nor would have but for the media agenda), the fearful press elites continue to warn that if we don't shelter in place for the next five months, it will be tantamount to national suicide (the press always adding the cliché' "especially for minorities"). Yet the charts tell a different story - that just perhaps this was, in no small, an over hyped "crisis".

Recall the drumbeat? Perhaps upto a million or more dead but, most hopefully according to 538 on March 26th: "

The expert consensus is that COVID-19 will cause 246,000 deaths in 2020, higher than last week’s estimate of 200,000 deaths"... oh dear.
​

But as it is rapidly becoming an accepted fact, it was all a bunch of hooey. The mantra that "we have to be perfect" to keep it below 200,000 was as absurd as the contention that the IHME forecasts required "perfection" to be below a 100,000. Yet the kicker is, even without the required illusion of perfection, the initial IHME forecasts (e.g. 94,000) (and perhaps the current ones) remain too high.

Here's all you need to know, the IHME inflection point for negative growth of fatalities was not April 16th (the original), or April 12 (a revised date) but April 10-11th. And the peak number of deaths would not be 3200, 2600, or 2200 (all variously forecast by the IHME) but 2,035.



Yep, we are no on the downslope and going deeper.

And you might take a look at this:



Yep, another forecast to the upside. Both the actual data and the actual trend (as shown by the red dashed trend line) is WAY UNDER the two IHME peak forecasts and plunging away to the downside.

And finally, equally clear that the final death tally for the virus won't be 94,000, 80,000, 68,000, or even 61,000 as all, at one time or another, forecast by the IHME - nope, having missed on the high side numbers then one must expect more like 40,000 to 50,000 - although everyday all error to the high side.

It's done, and it may not even amount to a bad season of the flu.

For this we shut down the economy, evaporated a couple of trillion of GDP, and face a huge debt and very high unemployment for the foreseeable future.

 

[RabidAlpaca]

Trump supporters really are dumber than a box of rocks. You're telling me *gasp* that because of all these measures we've taken the death rate of Americans isn't nearly as high as it would've been had we done nothing and just let it infect everyone, as you want!? Stop the presses!

I suggest you "stick it to the libs" by getting yourself infected then dying from untreated pneumonia because you refuse to go to a hospital. That'll really show us.

 

[year2late]

Trump supporters really are dumber than a box of rocks. You're telling me *gasp* that because of all these measures we've taken the death rate of Americans isn't nearly as high as it would've been had we done nothing and just let it infect everyone, as you want!? Stop the presses!

I suggest you "stick it to the libs" by getting yourself infected then dying from untreated pneumonia because you refuse to go to a hospital. That'll really show us.

Heck....some are even saying that doctors are falsifying thousands of death certificates to show that all those dying of covid really just were dying of heart attacks. It does not surprise me that they cannot understand that social distancing (etc) worked - and that is why the numbers look better.

 

[Aristaeus]

Amid all the lurid headlines and bios of COVID deaths of a bunch of "celebrities" you never heard of (nor would have but for the media agenda), the fearful press elites continue to warn that if we don't shelter in place for the next five months, it will be tantamount to national suicide (the press always adding the cliché' "especially for minorities"). Yet the charts tell a different story - that just perhaps this was, in no small, an over hyped "crisis".

Recall the drumbeat? Perhaps upto a million or more dead but, most hopefully according to 538 on March 26th: "

The expert consensus is that COVID-19 will cause 246,000 deaths in 2020, higher than last week’s estimate of 200,000 deaths"... oh dear.
​

But as it is rapidly becoming an accepted fact, it was all a bunch of hooey. The mantra that "we have to be perfect" to keep it below 200,000 was as absurd as the contention that the IHME forecasts required "perfection" to be below a 100,000. Yet the kicker is, even without the required illusion of perfection, the initial IHME forecasts (e.g. 94,000) (and perhaps the current ones) remain too high.

Here's all you need to know, the IHME inflection point for negative growth of fatalities was not April 16th (the original), or April 12 (a revised date) but April 10-11th. And the peak number of deaths would not be 3200, 2600, or 2200 (all variously forecast by the IHME) but 2,035.

View attachment 67277867

Yep, we are no on the downslope and going deeper.

And you might take a look at this:

View attachment 67277868

Yep, another forecast to the upside. Both the actual data and the actual trend (as shown by the red dashed trend line) is WAY UNDER the two IHME peak forecasts and plunging away to the downside.

And finally, equally clear that the final death tally for the virus won't be 94,000, 80,000, 68,000, or even 61,000 as all, at one time or another, forecast by the IHME - nope, having missed on the high side numbers then one must expect more like 40,000 to 50,000 - although everyday all error to the high side.

It's done, and it may not even amount to a bad season of the flu.

For this we shut down the economy, evaporated a couple of trillion of GDP, and face a huge debt and very high unemployment for the foreseeable future.

Your projected downward curve is far too steep. Look at Italy and Spain and you see the downward trajectory is far slower than the rising trajectory.

 

[SenorXm/Sirius]

Trump supporters really are dumber than a box of rocks. You're telling me *gasp* that because of all these measures we've taken the death rate of Americans isn't nearly as high as it would've been had we done nothing and just let it infect everyone, as you want!? Stop the presses!

I suggest you "stick it to the libs" by getting yourself infected then dying from untreated pneumonia because you refuse to go to a hospital. That'll really show us.

It doesn't matter how the crisis ends, Trumpsters will spin it to make their god look good. That's what cults do..

If the number of deaths are lower than projected they will A) say it was mostly a hoax, and B) say it was lower because Trump stops flights from China when he did..... But if this keeps going and deaths keeps growing they will blame the Dems, especially the Dem mayors and governors.


Because Trump has disagreed with and tried to ignore the experts they will NEVER give the medical experts credit for the measures like social distancing that has worked to slow the spread.

 

[3leftsdoo]

Amid all the lurid headlines and bios of COVID deaths of a bunch of "celebrities" you never heard of (nor would have but for the media agenda), the fearful press elites continue to warn that if we don't shelter in place for the next five months, it will be tantamount to national suicide (the press always adding the cliché' "especially for minorities"). Yet the charts tell a different story - that just perhaps this was, in no small, an over hyped "crisis".

Recall the drumbeat? Perhaps upto a million or more dead but, most hopefully according to 538 on March 26th: "

The expert consensus is that COVID-19 will cause 246,000 deaths in 2020, higher than last week’s estimate of 200,000 deaths"... oh dear.
​

But as it is rapidly becoming an accepted fact, it was all a bunch of hooey. The mantra that "we have to be perfect" to keep it below 200,000 was as absurd as the contention that the IHME forecasts required "perfection" to be below a 100,000. Yet the kicker is, even without the required illusion of perfection, the initial IHME forecasts (e.g. 94,000) (and perhaps the current ones) remain too high.

Here's all you need to know, the IHME inflection point for negative growth of fatalities was not April 16th (the original), or April 12 (a revised date) but April 10-11th. And the peak number of deaths would not be 3200, 2600, or 2200 (all variously forecast by the IHME) but 2,035.

View attachment 67277867

Yep, we are no on the downslope and going deeper.

And you might take a look at this:

View attachment 67277868

Yep, another forecast to the upside. Both the actual data and the actual trend (as shown by the red dashed trend line) is WAY UNDER the two IHME peak forecasts and plunging away to the downside.

And finally, equally clear that the final death tally for the virus won't be 94,000, 80,000, 68,000, or even 61,000 as all, at one time or another, forecast by the IHME - nope, having missed on the high side numbers then one must expect more like 40,000 to 50,000 - although everyday all error to the high side.

It's done, and it may not even amount to a bad season of the flu.

For this we shut down the economy, evaporated a couple of trillion of GDP, and face a huge debt and very high unemployment for the foreseeable future.

Oh my.

There will be no joy in Liberalville...

 

[maxparrish]

Trump supporters really are dumber than a box of rocks. You're telling me *gasp* that because of all these measures we've taken the death rate of Americans isn't nearly as high as it would've been had we done nothing and just let it infect everyone, as you want!? Stop the presses!

I suggest you "stick it to the libs" by getting yourself infected then dying from untreated pneumonia because you refuse to go to a hospital. That'll really show us.

Rather, I'm telling you that when the "experts" tell you that EVEN WITH ALL THESE MEASURES 260,000 will die as a "consensus", or a couple of hundred thousand even when "perfect" and it hasn't and apparently won't happen then even a box of rocks might know it was over-sold hooey.

Even the rather moderate UHME forecasters has been getting it wrong...on the downside.

Fact is, this "pandemic" in the US has never required the Draconian measures taken and had we focused on "case-isolation", shelter in place social distancing for the most vulnerable population, school closure, and home quarantine for suspect cases then the economy would be largely whole and the preventative measures sufficient to keep the fatality count within acceptable parameters.

Sadly, now the alarmists are looking for ways to inflate the statistical number of COVID deaths to justify what the IMF has predicted what will be equal to the 1930s Great Depression.

 

[Outlook]

The virus death rate for the population under 49 years of age is 6%, from 50-59 is 10% and over 60 years of age is 84%.
Won’t it have been better to keep the college kids on campus and grandparents isolated instead of shutting the entire economy down.

 

[snakestretcher]

The virus death rate for the population under 49 years of age is 6%, from 50-59 is 10% and over 60 years of age is 84%.
Won’t it have been better to keep the college kids on campus and grandparents isolated instead of shutting the entire economy down.

"I love the poorly educated"

 

[CaughtInThe]

Trump supporters really are dumber than a box of rocks. You're telling me *gasp* that because of all these measures we've taken the death rate of Americans isn't nearly as high as it would've been had we done nothing and just let it infect everyone, as you want!? Stop the presses!

I suggest you "stick it to the libs" by getting yourself infected then dying from untreated pneumonia because you refuse to go to a hospital. That'll really show us.

i started a thread about this very tactic. it's the Y2k tactic.


it's like i can see the future.

 

[maxparrish]

What more do you need to know? The top chart shows the rate plummeting so fast that it could be over by April 23rd. The second chart has the projected trendline by the IHME (Rev Update as of 4/12), showing most of the pandemic over by May 15th.

While I don't think the top chart is going to hold, it certainly shows another likely over-forecast.

When are you guys going to learn?

 

[maxparrish]

The virus death rate for the population under 49 years of age is 6%, from 50-59 is 10% and over 60 years of age is 84%.
Won’t it have been better to keep the college kids on campus and grandparents isolated instead of shutting the entire economy down.

LOL...do you have to tell yourself lies in order to buttress a hyper alarmist mindset? When you fail to find a credible cite for your nonsense, I hope to hear a bit more sober humility.

 

[year2late]

The virus death rate for the population under 49 years of age is 6%, from 50-59 is 10% and over 60 years of age is 84%.
Won’t it have been better to keep the college kids on campus and grandparents isolated instead of shutting the entire economy down.

You think the only group at risk are grandparents?:roll:

 

[MSgt]

Oh my.

There will be no joy in Liberalville...

I grow tired of your ability to use a keyboard. You are like a toddler with an uzi. It was the liberals who encouraged people like you to wake the **** up and start taking measures to protect yourself. Because of that, the death numbers are nowhere near as high as they were being projected to be. Virtually every country out there is practicing temporary social distancing and look at that.....the spread is decreasing. By all means, let's reset it all and start throwing some parties before the health officials and mask manufacturers have a good handle on it.

Thank a liberal and a Democrat, especially those who were urging Trump to declare an emergency for weeks before he finally did. For without them, you people would a still be throwing COVID parties from inside your asses. There is a reason the more educated, and thus the smarter, tend to come from the liberal ranks.

 

[MSgt]

View attachment 67277880

View attachment 67277877

What more do you need to know? The top chart shows the rate plummeting so fast that it could be over by April 23rd. The second chart has the projected trendline by the IHME (Rev Update as of 4/12), showing most of the pandemic over by May 15th.

While I don't think the top chart is going to hold, it certainly shows another likely over-forecast.

When are you guys going to learn?

What?!

So, your conclusion is that the plummet is due to some sort of magic, not the social distancing that is preventing the spread that was occurring before social distancing. And because of the plummet, we should open the flood gates and start smashing up against one another again?

A smart man would at least preposition that with a healthy supply of masks first.

 

[MTAtech]

Rather, I'm telling you that when the "experts" tell you that EVEN WITH ALL THESE MEASURES 260,000 will die as a "consensus", or a couple of hundred thousand even when "perfect" and it hasn't and apparently won't happen then even a box of rocks might know it was over-sold hooey.

Even the rather moderate UHME forecasters has been getting it wrong...on the downside.

Fact is, this "pandemic" in the US has never required the Draconian measures taken and had we focused on "case-isolation", shelter in place social distancing for the most vulnerable population, school closure, and home quarantine for suspect cases then the economy would be largely whole and the preventative measures sufficient to keep the fatality count within acceptable parameters.

Sadly, now the alarmists are looking for ways to inflate the statistical number of COVID deaths to justify what the IMF has predicted what will be equal to the 1930s Great Depression.

What you can't seem to fathom is that shutting down the entire country is responsible for lower deaths. It's like my mechanic warning me that if I don't change my oil regularly I'll have engine damage. Then, five years later I say, "you were wrong, I changed my oil every 3,000 miles and I didn't have the engine damage you warned about."

Moreover, the virus still hasn't gone it's course -- it hasn't yet ravaged the whole country yet. I am sad what will happen in Trump country run by GOP governors that keep things open too long.

 

[MSgt]

What you can't seem to fathom is that shutting down the entire country is responsible for lower deaths. It's like my mechanic warning me that if I don't change my oil regularly I'll have engine damage. Then, five years later I say, "you were wrong, I changed my oil every 3,000 miles and I didn't have the engine damage you warned about."

Moreover, the virus still hasn't gone it's course -- it hasn't yet ravaged the whole country yet. I am sad what will happen in Trump country run by GOP governors that keep things open too long.

Oh, he fathoms. They all do. This is the same obtuse attitude they all practice from topic to topic after Trump has led them down a path where they have egg on their face and don't know what to do about it. I mean, pick a topic: Global Warming, Trickle-Down, Neo-Con agenda, birth certificates, lock her up, NATO is obsolete, China trade war, North Korean missile program, Iran deal, TPP, 15 COVID deaths to 0 deaths, Mexican invasions....

They follow the moron's every mood and then wind up scrambling about when he flips on them. From supporting Trump's earlier complacency to obtusely denying that he was ever complacent, their middle ground now is to separate the earlier projected deaths from social distancing so that they can create the delusion that Trump, thus themselves, were right too.

And they wonder why I am so hard on them. They practically beg me.

 

[maxparrish]

What?!

So, your conclusion is that the plummet is due to some sort of magic, not the social distancing that is preventing the spread that was occurring before social distancing. And because of the plummet, we should open the flood gates and start smashing up against one another again?

A smart man would at least preposition that with a healthy supply of masks first.

Read my op...you won't find a mention of magic or a claim that social distancing had no effect on mitigating the rate of spread of COVID. I think it plainly states my view.

 

[prometeus]

So, your conclusion is that the plummet is due to some sort of magic

Didn't Trump say that it will disappear like magic?

 

[Cardinal]

It was predicted over a month ago that if preventative measures were put in place that mitigated the outbreak, people would claim we were overreacting.

That was the entire basis of the “preparation paradox,” and it was eerily prescient.

 

[maxparrish]

What you can't seem to fathom is that shutting down the entire country is responsible for lower deaths. It's like my mechanic warning me that if I don't change my oil regularly I'll have engine damage. Then, five years later I say, "you were wrong, I changed my oil every 3,000 miles and I didn't have the engine damage you warned about."

Moreover, the virus still hasn't gone it's course -- it hasn't yet ravaged the whole country yet. I am sad what will happen in Trump country run by GOP governors that keep things open too long.

Sigh. As I have repeatedly stated, as I did in the op, that what liberals can't seem to fathom is that shutting down the country on the pretext that the virus is so infectious and dangerous that EVEN HAVING DONE SO, we will still have deaths in the high 100's to the "consensus" of 264K deaths can justify an extremely expensive "cure".

It's like insisting on engine overhaul to fix that "service engine" light. The fact that thousands of dollars later the light no longer flickers doesn't mean the mechanic was justified for misdiagnosing and over-reacting.

Indeed, one might suspect he was grifting you all along.

 

[MSgt]

Read my op...you won't find a mention of magic or a claim that social distancing had no effect on mitigating the rate of spread of COVID. I think it plainly states my view.

Oh, I read your OP:

It's done, and it may not even amount to a bad season of the flu.

For this we shut down the economy, evaporated a couple of trillion of GDP....

It's done? By what magic? Clearly, social distancing is doing the job and without it the deaths would be exponentially higher. It is hardly done, especially with people like you looking to open back up the flood gates. Without this temporary social distancing, COVID might have been heading towards Spanish Flu category.


And for this, we did temporarily shut down the economy. But complaining about this temporary issue is very foolish, considering that Trump created the very tax mechanisms that are going to see a loss of trillions every single year now. Odd, how a temporary loss of money due to a brand new virus has you upset, but 91 companies of the Fortune 500 paying 0% taxes on almost a trillion dollars in 2018 rates a shrug. Do you think it will be only 91 companies for 2019? For 2020? The Tax-Cut and Jobs Act still provide the escape hatches.

You lack perspective because you post from a partisan platform that has everything to do with only defending Trump's 'economy-saving' complacency phase. Yet, the economy began tanking even before he declared an emergency. It's crazy how you people supported him then and support him now, while encouraging him to go back to complacency just to save face. If you all posted from a place of common sense and reason in the first place, you wouldn't constantly play this scrambling game.

 

[RabidAlpaca]

Rather, I'm telling you that when the "experts" tell you that EVEN WITH ALL THESE MEASURES 260,000 will die as a "consensus", or a couple of hundred thousand even when "perfect" and it hasn't and apparently won't happen then even a box of rocks might know it was over-sold hooey.

Even the rather moderate UHME forecasters has been getting it wrong...on the downside.

Fact is, this "pandemic" in the US has never required the Draconian measures taken and had we focused on "case-isolation", shelter in place social distancing for the most vulnerable population, school closure, and home quarantine for suspect cases then the economy would be largely whole and the preventative measures sufficient to keep the fatality count within acceptable parameters.

Sadly, now the alarmists are looking for ways to inflate the statistical number of COVID deaths to justify what the IMF has predicted what will be equal to the 1930s Great Depression.

1500 Americans died yesterday from Covid, even with all of these measures. I know their lives mean absolutely nothing to you, but if we listened to Trump supporters and just let all Americans get infected, it would be dramatically higher than that. Why do you hate America?

 

[SenorXm/Sirius]

1500 Americans died yesterday from Covid, even with all of these measures. I know their lives mean absolutely nothing to you, but if we listened to Trump supporters and just let all Americans get infected, it would be dramatically higher than that. Why do you hate America?

I think the term the Trumpstrs use is we should have let is 'wash over the country'. That way the people who lived would become immune to it, and the rest would die.. Kind of what the world did in 1918, and 50 million died then.. But hey, so what right?

I love how the so called 'pro life' people pick and choose who they think should live and who should die.

 

[maxparrish]

1500 Americans died yesterday from Covid, even with all of these measures. I know their lives mean absolutely nothing to you, but if we listened to Trump supporters and just let all Americans get infected, it would be dramatically higher than that. Why do you hate America?

2.4 million Americans die each year. An extra 60,000 wouldn't be even noticeable in the totals. Lives mean something, but it doesn't mean everything. When you are in a war to preserve a way of life, to secure an economic future, not everyone can be saved.