Covid Hysterics Oblivious to Florida, Texas, Arizona, California et. al. doing just fine!

[Moot]

What a load of panic porn nonsense (and as usual for you, unsupported). HERE is what has been real of recent FOR FLORIDA, ARIZONA, and TEXAS:



Compare 7/5 to 7/19 - Percent of ICU Beds Available FLAT

Pin on COVID DATA

Pin on COVID DATA



Compare 7/5 to 7/19 - Percent of Hospital Beds Available, FLAT

Pin on COVID DATA

Pin on COVID DATA


Compare Arizona - Ventilator Usage, FLAT.

Pin on COVID DATA

https://www.pinterest.com/pin/438186238750550087/


Compare Texas Bed and COVID patient rates, FLAT

https://www.pinterest.com/pin/438186238750550074/


FLAT, FLAT, FLAT...the COVID hysteria and churning out of lies by the MSM and their forum sycophants needs to end!

It looks pretty grim in Texas...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1283976325204566016


"Houston, we have a problem."

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

I won't quibble about a subject I did not address in this thread - trend lines are merely suggestive, not predictive. However, where they coincide with forecasts based on other factors in modeling, they do lend additional weight.

And so far they are confirming a forecast that has been fairly consistent and accurate in the last month, made by the IHME. Unlike their poor initial modeling, it looks like they might actually have a decent model after their massive revisions of May 4th (see green lines in chart below).

That model, by the way, projects a mostly flat rate of death with a mild rise closer to later august and into October. So far that is what we are seeing:

View attachment 67288061

If deaths creep creeping upward (and my computed correlation of 15 deaths added for each rise in 1000 cases holds) then by 10 days the MV will be 950 deaths per day. On the other hand, the IHME predicts a flatter trend shortly.

Update: I just checked IHME forecast and discovered it has been revised upward. Interestingly, it also sees a rise to about 1000 deaths per day before going flat or mildly decreasing.

View attachment 67288065

You might find

​

interesting.

This chart tracks the relationship between mortality and testing. If mortality is flat and testing goes up, the index will go down. If mortality is flat and testing goes down, the index will go up. If mortality increases and testing goes up proportionately, the index will be flat. If mortality increases and testing increases by a greater proportion, the index will go down. If mortality increases and testing increases by a lesser proportion, the index will go up. If mortality - oh heck, you get the idea. An increase in the index is a "Bad Thing" and a decrease in the index is a "Good Thing".

 

[Deuce]

It puzzles me why we can’t be real about the need to balance the risk of dying from the virus against the harm created by economic shutdown. Try to point out that it isn’t a death sentence for most who get it and, apparently, that means you don’t care about those who have died.

What does the mortality rate have to be before you take it seriously?

 

[Vern]

He follows his chart above except when its protest/riot time. Then what he hears is "**** the police and statues".

ooooo AO,your point is not real clear. The chart helps us understand what you mean when you obediently repeat what you're told to say. Could you have your supervisor translate your post for you. thanks in advance.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

What a load of panic porn nonsense (and as usual for you, unsupported). HERE is what has been real of recent FOR FLORIDA, ARIZONA, and TEXAS:



Compare 7/5 to 7/19 - Percent of ICU Beds Available FLAT

Pin on COVID DATA

Pin on COVID DATA



Compare 7/5 to 7/19 - Percent of Hospital Beds Available, FLAT

Pin on COVID DATA

Pin on COVID DATA


Compare Arizona - Ventilator Usage, FLAT.

Pin on COVID DATA

https://www.pinterest.com/pin/438186238750550087/


Compare Texas Bed and COVID patient rates, FLAT

https://www.pinterest.com/pin/438186238750550074/


FLAT, FLAT, FLAT...the COVID hysteria and churning out of lies by the MSM and their forum sycophants needs to end!

Your links illustrate one of the difficulties around "testing". A massive increase in tests is likely to increase the absolute number of cases found, but might not have any effect whatsoever of other indicia like "number of deaths" or "hospital bed usage". It will, however, definitely lower the "Mortality Rate (ALL)" figure and can do so without lowering the "Mortality Rate (CLOSED)" figure proportionately.

In fact, the "Mortality Rate (ALL)" for the US is coming down faster than the "Mortality Rate (CLOSED)" for the US is.

Now I will give you that the "bad news" is being overly hyped BUT the "good news" is also being overly hyped. The difference between the two is that the "bad news" appears to have a much sounder footing in reality than the "good news" has - unless, of course, you define "good news" as

"Well, sure things are getting worse, but they aren't quite as bad as some people are saying that they are and they aren't getting worse as fast as some people are saying that they are.".​

 

[AlphaOmega]

ooooo AO,your point is not real clear. The chart helps us understand what you mean when you obediently repeat what you're told to say. Could you have your supervisor translate your post for you. thanks in advance.

Lefty hears....protest....and covid masks and charts go out the window. It's statue killin time!

 

[Vern]

Lefty hears....protest....and covid masks and charts go out the window. It's statue killin time!

You're still not being clear. the "covid masks and charts go out the window" makes no sense. There is no connection between the chart and protests. You seem to having a hard time understanding that the chart helps translate what conservatives mean when they parrot conservative talking points. And you seem to be trying to make a point about protesters wearing masks. The protesters who didnt wear masks were criticized and the protesters were pretty good at wearing masks.

For someone who claims to be a scientist, you should be able to make a clear point.

 

[Visbek]

What a load of panic porn nonsense (and as usual for you, unsupported). HERE is what has been real of recent FOR FLORIDA, ARIZONA, and TEXAS:

Here we go

Compare 7/5 to 7/19 - Percent of ICU Beds Available FLAT

No, it isn't.

Your ex-NYT COVID denier buddy is cherry-picking stats, in order to convince the suckers to ignore how things are going off the rails in much of the US right now.

For example, he deliberately left out the total capacity figures (which are readily available from that data source)... but even so, it's easy to calculate that with the numbers he did show. What happened is Florida is adding ICU beds. They increased ICU capacity by 2%, and capacity still dropped another 2%.

The same with total hospital beds. Up 3%, while capacity dropped another 1.4%.

They are surging beds, but that also means they have to surge staff. Neither is sustainable indefinitely.

Compare Arizona - Ventilator Usage, FLAT.

Hello? What month do you think it is? Hospitals and doctors realized months ago that ventilators don't help much with COVID-19. The survival rate for ventilators with respiratory illnesses is already pretty bad, it's around 50%.

Compare Texas Bed and COVID patient rates, FLAT

No, that's not "Texas." That is Southeast Texas.

Since June 22nd, ICU usage for COVID patients doubled from 500 to 1,000; COVID patients in general beds roughly doubled from 1,300 to 2,700. The total hospital population went from 9,000 in March 24th, down to a low of 6,600 on April 12th (due to elective procedure bans), and has steadily increased since to 12,000 -- despite the elective ban being rescinded then reapplied. (Microsoft Power BI)

More importantly, Texas does publish some of these types of stats (Texas COVID-19 Data). Wanna guess what's happening?

 

[Phys251]

With a thimble full of more thinking of course they do. THERE IS NO reason to suppose that the national inverse relationship of rising cases to the rate of death is an exception in those states. They are not roadside "mystery spots" that defy the underlying forces of the pandemic. They are a substantial part of the national trend in steeply rising rates accompanied by decreasing impacts on the death rate.

Or do you think your "basic math" somehow works differently for the nation as opposed to those particular states?

Cease your denial, you know where this leads...and its not to the facts saving your nonsense.

An interactive visualization of the exponential spread of COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC

The death rates in Arizona are surging right now. Precisely as predicted with the lag between new cases and new deaths.

I predict that within two weeks, Florida will do the same, followed by other Sun Belt states.

 

[Visbek]

An interactive visualization of the exponential spread of COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC

The death rates in Arizona are surging right now. Precisely as predicted with the lag between new cases and new deaths.

I predict that within two weeks, Florida will do the same, followed by other Sun Belt states.

Kinda looks like that's already happening, unless more than doubling in 2 weeks doesn't quite qualify as a surge. Very useful site, by the way....

 

[Ahlevah]

So please no more idiot headlines comparing Texas to Germany, and the like. It's as foolish as it is shameless.

I would rather wait for the final tally before drawing any conclusions. But offhand I would say 10,000+ cases a day provides for some bad future mojo.

 

[maxparrish]

Your ex-NYT COVID denier buddy is cherry-picking stats, in order to convince the suckers to ignore how things are going off the rails in much of the US right now.

For example, he deliberately left out the total capacity figures (which are readily available from that data source)... but even so, it's easy to calculate that with the numbers he did show. What happened is Florida is adding ICU beds. They increased ICU capacity by 2%, and capacity still dropped another 2%.

The same with total hospital beds. Up 3%, while capacity dropped another 1.4%.

They are surging beds, but that also means they have to surge staff. Neither is sustainable indefinitely.

You call a mere 350 added ICU cases out of an average of 5000 ICU beds, "going off the rails"? Back on planet earth we call that "hysteria" over a blip. That mild increase in capacity of a few hundred beds and the the reduction of a 100 bed vacancy is but a miniscule difference...that is not, for any sane person, "going off the rails". It's a confirmation that Berenson was spot on...its effectively flat and the sky is not falling.

As for surge capacities, in general they are on the order of 20 percent for most systems, which includes staff, so its not "going off the rails".

Hello? What month do you think it is? Hospitals and doctors realized months ago that ventilators don't help much with COVID-19. The survival rate for ventilators with respiratory illnesses is already pretty bad, it's around 50%.

In other words, its STILL effectively FLAT and there is NO possibility of a shortage of ventilators. Again, no "going off the rails here" either.

No, that's not "Texas." That is Southeast Texas.

Yes that is the epicenter of the largest and most dominant hotspot(s) in Texas... what does that tell you, hmmmm? LIKE maybe that you ought to pay attention to the fact that for two weeks its been FLAT FLAT FLAT?

Since June 22nd, ICU usage for COVID patients doubled from 500 to 1,000; COVID patients in general beds roughly doubled from 1,300 to 2,700. The total hospital population went from 9,000 in March 24th, down to a low of 6,600 on April 12th (due to elective procedure bans), and has steadily increased since to 12,000 -- despite the elective ban being rescinded then reapplied. (Microsoft Power BI)

For all your lame attempts to shift our focus away from today to pror and irrelevant 'April' or 'June' data, you can't deny THE PRESENT!. SE TEXAS is not in trouble...the trends for at least two weeks (if not more) are FLAT...FLAT...FLAT. Meaning they are doing just FINE!

More importantly, Texas does publish some of these types of stats (Texas COVID-19 Data). Wanna guess what's happening?

As your link does not provide these graphs (as far as I can tell), nor do you cite what data tables these graphs use, so we must remain guessing "what's happening" in your head. However, here is what is happening according to your own link (link to data provided at post bottom):





NOTICE: FLAT for occupied hospital beds
NOTICE: Essentially FLAT for available ICU beds

So THAT should settle it. As I stated, these states are doing just fine. Handling increased "cases" and hospitalizations, not even beginning to touch serious surge capacity.


PS: Download: https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/TexasHospitalCapacityoverTimebyTSA.xlsx, if "what's happening" in Texas is your concern. Apparently not a lot worth fretting over.

 

[iguanaman]

It puzzles me why we can’t be real about the need to balance the risk of dying from the virus against the harm created by economic shutdown. Try to point out that it isn’t a death sentence for most who get it and, apparently, that means you don’t care about those who have died.

Yes. We all need to surrender to the virus because dear leader says it is so. What's a sacrifice of a half million souls compared to the joy of greasing Trumps enormous ego? It's a no brainer. All the ******s in the rest of the world can F**k themselves with the "flattening the curve", testing and contact tracing. Real Americans go commando like Rambo. Would Rambo wear a mask? Never!

 

[maxparrish]

Yes. We all need to surrender to the virus because dear leader says it is so. What's a sacrifice of a half million souls compared to the joy of greasing Trumps enormous ego? It's a no brainer. All the ******s in the rest of the world can F**k themselves with the "flattening the curve", testing and contact tracing. Real Americans go commando like Rambo. Would Rambo wear a mask? Never!

Now that the NYTimes has reorganized into an ideological cadre of the post-modern 'anti-racist' left its about as trustworthy as Bagdad Bob and Joe Izuzu on roids.

What a dumb and completely unprofessional graph.

 

[Visbek]

You call a mere 350 added ICU cases out of an average of 5000 ICU beds, "going off the rails"?

I call adding 60,000 cases a day, with new cases and new deaths per day, with a federal government and numerous state governments shoving their thumbs up their asses, tests taking longer to process, positive test rates too high for pooled testing to work, and yes hospitals filling up and staff pushed beyond the breaking point, as "going off the rails."

And again, I don't know how you missed it, but: Diseases spread exponentially, and data reporting is weeks behind. That means by the time the hospitals are completely full, it's way too late. The new case data is anywhere from 1-2 weeks old, in no small part because insufficient testing supplies delays the results by a week now. Deaths lag even further behind.

Back on planet earth we call that "hysteria" over a blip. That mild increase in capacity of a few hundred beds and the the reduction of a 100 bed vacancy is but a miniscule difference...

No, dude. You are deliberately failing to realize that in the space of just 2 weeks, ICUs are getting filled up, while the rate of new cases -- which means new hospitalizations -- is also rising.

As for surge capacities, in general they are on the order of 20 percent for most systems, which includes staff, so its not "going off the rails".

So basically, you can't tell the difference between a 3% increase in capacity and a 20% increase in capacity. Good to know.

Plus, to reiterate: They can't keep adding beds indefinitely, and definitely cannot add doctors, nurses and other trained hospital staff overnight or indefinitely. Houston is already out of staff -- which is, by the way, one reason why some of those newly added hospital beds aren't occupied:
Patients waiting for beds in Houston hospitals are actually waiting for enough staff to treat them - ABC13 Houston

Yes that is the epicenter of the largest and most dominant hotspot(s) in Texas... what does that tell you, hmmmm?

It tells me that you're a sucker for Berenson's highly selective data choices.

For all your lame attempts to shift our focus away from today to pror and irrelevant 'April' or 'June' data, you can't deny THE PRESENT!. SE TEXAS is not in trouble...

Yes, it is. No sane person doubts it. Even Fox News realizes that the situation is dire.

Texas ER doctor says Houston hospitals stretched to their limits: '''It'''s been very terrifying''' | Fox News

the trends for at least two weeks (if not more) are FLAT...FLAT...FLAT. Meaning they are doing just FINE!

:roll:

No, dude, it is not "fine." Looking at just the past two weeks (and messing with the graph scales) does not give you a real idea of what's going on. ICU and other hospital beds in Texas, for example, have been getting filled up for months. And again, they don't have enough staff to safely fill all those ICU beds that they've added or pushed people out of.

Oh, but I forgot. Unless there are 500,000 dead in a single month and bodies piled up in the streets, you don't give a crap. Silly me.

 

[Visbek]

Now that the NYTimes has reorganized into an ideological cadre of the post-modern 'anti-racist' left its about as trustworthy as Bagdad Bob and Joe Izuzu on roids.

What a dumb and completely unprofessional graph.

lol

News flash! NYT just made the graph; the data is from Our World in Data (i.e. researchers based at University of Oxford).

Why my gosh, I wonder what happens if we look at the same numbers from Johns Hopkins? It looks basically identical:




How about if we look at the data, normalized for population? Yep, same result:



Yeah, I'm pretty sure it isn't the NYT that is being "dumb and unprofessional" here, just by actually telling you how much worse the US is faring than over 2 dozen similarly industrialized and affluent nations.

 

[iguanaman]

Now that the NYTimes has reorganized into an ideological cadre of the post-modern 'anti-racist' left its about as trustworthy as Bagdad Bob and Joe Izuzu on roids.

What a dumb and completely unprofessional graph.

It is 100% accurate and that is what you hate about it. It shows clearly the failure that is Trump. Here is another link that scientifically proves that Trump is responsible for most of our deaths from Covid19. History will add mass murderer to his crimes. The idiom "His name is mud" will likely be changed to "His name is Trump" .:lamo

A faster response could have prevented most U.S. Covid-19 deaths - STAT

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

It is 100% accurate and that is what you hate about it. It shows clearly the failure that is Trump. Here is another link that scientifically proves that Trump is responsible for most of our deaths from Covid19. History will add mass murderer to his crimes. The idiom "His name is mud" will likely be changed to "His name is Trump" .:lamo

A faster response could have prevented most U.S. Covid-19 deaths - STAT

Give a cheer, the fatality statistics are off by between a factor of 6 and a factor of 24 (call it a factor of 15 for convenience).

"CDC: U.S. COVID-19 case count 6 to 24 times higher than reported" (from United Press International)​

Of course the only way that you can get that result is by counting everyone who was exposed to COVID-19 as having become ill with COVID-19, but - what the heck - if you want bogus numbers to make Mr. Trump look good, then any bogus numbers will do.

Mind you, the sudden addition of between 23,774,280 and 95,097,120 new COVID-19 cases in a single day is going to make the graphs look pretty silly.

 

[Lakryte]

Give a cheer, the fatality statistics are off by between a factor of 6 and a factor of 24 (call it a factor of 15 for convenience).

"CDC: U.S. COVID-19 case count 6 to 24 times higher than reported" (from United Press International)​

Of course the only way that you can get that result is by counting everyone who was exposed to COVID-19 as having become ill with COVID-19, but - what the heck - if you want bogus numbers to make Mr. Trump look good, then any bogus numbers will do.

Mind you, the sudden addition of between 23,774,280 and 95,097,120 new COVID-19 cases in a single day is going to make the graphs look pretty silly.

The fact that cases are underestimated doesn't mean deaths are overestimated...

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

The fact that cases are underestimated doesn't mean deaths are overestimated...

I'm sorry, but you don't appear to have received the latest edition of The Current Response And Position Bulletin that is put out by The Federal Legal And Civil Knowledge Bureau.

The latest version of the currently operative, officially sanctioned, "Team Trump" approved, White House issued, truth-of-the-day (as every patriotic, right-thinking, patriotic, hard working, patriotic, honest, patriotic, real, patriotic, true, patriotic, conservative, patriotic, Christian, patriotic, White, patriotic, American, patriotic, patriot jusknoz) is that even the slightest uncertainty in ANY number in ANY data set means that NONE of the numbers in ANY data set are to be believed and the only way to know **T*H*E** **T*R*U*T*H** is to repeat, as many times as necessary, whatever **P*R*E*S*I*D*E*N*T** **T*R*U*M*P** says because **P*R*E*S*I*D*E*N*T** **T*R*U*M*P** knows everything about everything and is never wrong.