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Core Inflation surges to over 3%

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iguanaman

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Yes rising inflation is back and it it appears to be picking up steam. In other news the Administration announced they will no longer be giving monthly job reports. I wonder why that is ? Also corporate bankruptcies are at the highest rate in 15 years. So much winning.....

 
The problem is, I don't think we can trust the CPI numbers.

So we need to be cautious.

But where we sit, interest rates cuts are out of the cards and more evidence if you weren't already convinced...

Trump is an economically illiterate fool and he's going to crash the United States into a mountain.

Politically.

Socially.

And Economically.

This is a disaster.
 
BUT.................................................................. WHATABOUT........................................... inflation under Joe Biden?
 
iliveonramen said:
What's concerning is core inflation is rising while consumer demand and jobs are lagging.
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That was always the deal. Corporations got used to price gouging, and Trump isn't gonna be the one to tell them no. They don't need to sell to all the plebs anymore, just the Richies.

Over the next year people are gonna see what our economy really looks like and it's gonna be nuclear.
 
iguanaman said:
Yes rising inflation is back and it it appears to be picking up steam. In other news the Administration announced they will no longer be giving monthly job reports. I wonder why that is ? Also corporate bankruptcies are at the highest rate in 15 years. So much winning.....

Click to expand...

I thought we couldn’t trust the data any longer?
 
Jetboogieman said:
The problem is, I don't think we can trust the CPI numbers.

So we need to be cautious.

But where we sit, interest rates cuts are out of the cards and more evidence if you weren't already convinced...

Trump is an economically illiterate fool and he's going to crash the United States into a mountain.

Politically.

Socially.

And Economically.

This is a disaster.
Click to expand...
The market is liking the report. Russell is up over 2% and Dow 1% on bets of a September rate cut.
 
iguanaman said:
Yes rising inflation is back and it it appears to be picking up steam. In other news the Administration announced they will no longer be giving monthly job reports. I wonder why that is ? Also corporate bankruptcies are at the highest rate in 15 years. So much winning.....

Click to expand...

What is the meaning of core inflation?​

But core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy items and is watched closely by the Federal Reserve because it better reflects longer-term trends, increased 0.3% - a six-month high - after rising 0.2% in June. That nudged the annual increase from 2.9% to 3.1%, the highest since February.
 
iguanaman said:
What do you expect for GDP growth?
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I'm going to suggest that it will be impacted similarly to the last one, in other words, ir will be positively impacted by less imports. Whether domestic production and consumption change I couldn't guess, I just don't follow the individual economic reports leading to GDP closely enough.
 
iguanaman said:
It is called "stagflation" and is exactly what many economists were predicting including the Fed.
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It should be illegal to use 'stagflation' and 3% inflation in the same sentence.
 
iliveonramen said:
Up from what, a 1% decrease the previous month and a slight decrease in April? For the second quarter, retail sales are down.
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Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $720.1 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 3.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from June 2024. Total sales for the April 2025 through June 2025 period were up 4.1 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The April 2025 to May 2025 percent change was unrevised from down 0.9 percent (±0.2 percent).
 
dmpi said:
It should be illegal to use 'stagflation' and 3% inflation in the same sentence.
Click to expand...
If you have inflation above the baseline of 2% and an economy that is not growing, then it's stagflation. Granted, that is mild stagflation, but that is what it is.

I am not sure why conservatives have all of a sudden lost their understanding of basic market economics and free market principles, well other than they forgot them out of devotion to Trump. The worst thing for a business, worse than unionization, higher taxes, or burdensome regulations, is uncertainty. Businesses cannot plan for the future and they cannot plan where to invest in themselves when the Trump administration is changing trade policy on a literal daily basis. High tariffs are bad for business as they are a huge tax increase for them, but a business can at least plan for that assuming they don't change on a daily basis. Its the constant changes at the whim of Trump that is hurting the economy.

People want to make money. They want to make money regardless of whether Democrats are in office or Republicans. This is why administrations typically don't have a lot of influence on economic growth. Businesses might prefer one administration's policies over another, but in the end, people want to make money, and they will figure out a way to make money. This constant change, constant policy uncertainty puts businesses into survival mode rather than growth mode - particularly any business that isn't strictly services. They will act very conservatively, hoard resources, and delay business investment under such a climate.
 
From the same place you grabbed that blurb. What exactly is your point here, that retail sales didn't go down in the 2nd quarter?

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Trump is such a genius.
In his head, 3.1% means "No inflation!"
He didn' like the BLS numbers, so he fired the head and now presents "all new numbers" as if anyone is going to buy such bullshit.
And he still rants about receding prices by "500, 800, even 1500 precent."

He just still talking about how much is "coming in" to teh country becuase tariffs. This is like claiming you are rich because you transferred your savings account into your checking account.

Apparently basic math was skipped in his "stable genius" class.

Old angry orange idiot.

.
 
ALiberalModerate said:
If you have inflation above the baseline of 2% and an economy that is not growing, then it's stagflation. Granted, that is mild stagflation, but that is what it is.

I am not sure why conservatives have all of a sudden lost their understanding of basic market economics and free market principles, well other than they forgot them out of devotion to Trump. The worst thing for a business, worse than unionization, higher taxes, or burdensome regulations, is uncertainty. Businesses cannot plan for the future and they cannot plan where to invest in themselves when the Trump administration is changing trade policy on a literal daily basis. High tariffs are bad for business as they are a huge tax increase for them, but a business can at least plan for that assuming they don't change on a daily basis. Its the constant changes at the whim of Trump that is hurting the economy.

People want to make money. They want to make money regardless of whether Democrats are in office or Republicans. This is why administrations typically don't have a lot of influence on economic growth. Businesses might prefer one administration's policies over another, but in the end, people want to make money, and they will figure out a way to make money. This constant change, constant policy uncertainty puts businesses into survival mode rather than growth mode - particularly any business that isn't strictly services. They will act very conservatively, hoard resources, and delay business investment under such a climate.
Click to expand...
If you study history during the 70s and early 80s when the USA actually did experience stagflation you will find that inflation was above 10% and still spiking up. What do we have now? A relatively stable 3%. I mean... come on. Even Biden and the pandemic didn't get us over 10%. 70s inflation was caused by a massive punitive oil embargo, combined with a lax/easy monetary policy. Once inflation get a foothold in the consumer mindset it's hard to stop it. This tariff thing is big, but it ain't that big. Consumers and companies have way to adapt and mitigate the negative effects, for example stockpiling or switching to domestic vendors which happens to be the preferred outcome. So far it's 'much to do about nothing'. Stock markets both domestic and global are at or near all-time highs. I don't think the sky's falling.
 
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