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Cooling Looms As Earth’s True Climate Calamity

Wehrwolfen

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By Jay Lehr, Ph.D.
June 26, 2013


Although we have been enmeshed in a long debate over global warming and climate change, this controversy has been politically motivated, not a response to actual global warming, as there has been no warming for 16 years.

In fact, it is likely we will soon need to take a long, hard look at adjustments in behavior based not on warmth, which, by and large, results in good things, but, rather, on cold, which creates endless problems for both individuals and society.

Solar Activity Waning
Scientists from Pulkovo Observatory in St. Petersburg, Russia, stated in the Voice of Russia on April 22 that solar activity is waning to such an extent that the global average yearly temperature will soon begin to decline.

Now, there is no reason to believe there will be any warming during the remainder of this century, says Vladimir Kotlyakov, head of the Institute of Geography at the Russian Academy of Science, speaking with Vladimir Radyuhin for the Hindu newspaper on April 22, 2013. In the same article, Dr. Yuri Nagovitsyn, academic secretary of the Pulkovo Observatory, is quoted as saying coming generations will have to grapple with temperatures several degrees lower than those today.

On Jan. 8, on NASA's Science News website, Tony Phillips cited Matt Penn and William Livingston of the National Solar Observatory as noting we are now in the final stages of Solar Cycle 24, which has been "the weakest in more than 50 years." By the time Solar Cycle 25 arrives shortly, they predict, "magnetic fields on the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed," Phillips wrote.

Cold Temperatures Appearing
The effects of this weak solar activity have been notable. The United Kingdom just suffered through a winter with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees Celsius below normal, and German meteorologists report 2013 has been the coldest year in 208 years. Writing April 27 in England's Sunday Telegraph, Christopher Booker noted 3,318 places in the United States that had recorded their lowest temperatures for that time of year since records began. Similar records were set in every province of Canada, and the Russian winter has brought its deepest snowfall in 134 years.

Government Changes Needed
Cold causes more disruptions for people than warming, and mankind always has been more prosperous during warmer periods. However, with modern technology, we have the ability to plan accordingly and manage the slow change toward cooling that is likely upon us.

[Excerpt]

Read more:
Cooling Looms As Earth

Of course our dear leader has claimed that the atmosphere is warming and wants to destroy our largest source of energy COAL. This produces the bulk of our electrical generation. We have since the inception of the EPA cleaned our water, atmosphere and conserved our forests. While China Russia, and India have continued to spew pollution into the air, water and ground, while destroying their forest lands. China and India is buying all the lumber they can from South America, Africa and even the US. That does not include coal, petroleum and rare minerals, while Obama is destroying America and the ability to recover from one of the worst Depressions is 80 years.
 

Fisher

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So wee little electric cars are bad for the environment and should be taken off the market in favor of gas guzzling SUV's--humanity demands this.
 

pbrauer

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By Jay Lehr, Ph.D.
June 26, 2013


Although we have been enmeshed in a long debate over global warming and climate change, this controversy has been politically motivated, not a response to actual global warming, as there has been no warming for 16 years.

In fact, it is likely we will soon need to take a long, hard look at adjustments in behavior based not on warmth, which, by and large, results in good things, but, rather, on cold, which creates endless problems for both individuals and society.

Solar Activity Waning
Scientists from Pulkovo Observatory in St. Petersburg, Russia, stated in the Voice of Russia on April 22 that solar activity is waning to such an extent that the global average yearly temperature will soon begin to decline.

Now, there is no reason to believe there will be any warming during the remainder of this century, says Vladimir Kotlyakov, head of the Institute of Geography at the Russian Academy of Science, speaking with Vladimir Radyuhin for the Hindu newspaper on April 22, 2013. In the same article, Dr. Yuri Nagovitsyn, academic secretary of the Pulkovo Observatory, is quoted as saying coming generations will have to grapple with temperatures several degrees lower than those today.

On Jan. 8, on NASA's Science News website, Tony Phillips cited Matt Penn and William Livingston of the National Solar Observatory as noting we are now in the final stages of Solar Cycle 24, which has been "the weakest in more than 50 years." By the time Solar Cycle 25 arrives shortly, they predict, "magnetic fields on the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed," Phillips wrote.

Cold Temperatures Appearing
The effects of this weak solar activity have been notable. The United Kingdom just suffered through a winter with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees Celsius below normal, and German meteorologists report 2013 has been the coldest year in 208 years. Writing April 27 in England's Sunday Telegraph, Christopher Booker noted 3,318 places in the United States that had recorded their lowest temperatures for that time of year since records began. Similar records were set in every province of Canada, and the Russian winter has brought its deepest snowfall in 134 years.

Government Changes Needed
Cold causes more disruptions for people than warming, and mankind always has been more prosperous during warmer periods. However, with modern technology, we have the ability to plan accordingly and manage the slow change toward cooling that is likely upon us.

[Excerpt]

Read more:
Cooling Looms As Earth

Of course our dear leader has claimed that the atmosphere is warming and wants to destroy our largest source of energy COAL. This produces the bulk of our electrical generation. We have since the inception of the EPA cleaned our water, atmosphere and conserved our forests. While China Russia, and India have continued to spew pollution into the air, water and ground, while destroying their forest lands. China and India is buying all the lumber they can from South America, Africa and even the US. That does not include coal, petroleum and rare minerals, while Obama is destroying America and the ability to recover from one of the worst Depressions is 80 years.
Who is Jay Lehr? - Greedy Lying Bastards
 

iguanaman

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The Sun is not waning, Death Valley had 129 degrees the other day with a LOW of 104. Every decade has been warmer than the last and sea water temps keep rising.
 

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So wee little electric cars are bad for the environment and should be taken off the market in favor of gas guzzling SUV's--humanity demands this.
Electric cars are generally inefficiently powered by coal or gas fired power plants. (Batteries are notoriously inefficient.)

Reality bites, you know.

Electric cars as replacements for gas and diesel powered vehicles are pretty much a boondoggle to separate the gullible from their money at the personal and public levels and to compensate for self imposed visions of grossly reduced virility.
 

Fisher

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Electric cars are generally inefficiently powered by coal or gas fired power plants. (Batteries are notoriously inefficient.)

Reality bites, you know.

Electric cars as replacements for gas and diesel powered vehicles are pretty much a boondoggle to separate the gullible from their money at the personal and public levels and to compensate for self imposed visions of grossly reduced virility.
But what if they are made by Apple and called an iCar and have a docking port for an iPod and an iPhone instead of an ash tray and cigarette lighter because it is PC to oppose smoking because tobacco made southerners without slaves about as rich as southerners with slave and we cannot be having no rich southerners in the United States of Abortion so we forced them to give us a bunch of money we can spend on crack babies under the guise we were being reimbursed for smoking costs to the public?
 

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The Sun is not waning, Death Valley had 129 degrees the other day with a LOW of 104. Every decade has been warmer than the last and sea water temps keep rising.
Thank you for the Chicken Little version of reality.

However:

BBC News - Climate slowdown means extreme rates of warming 'not as likely'

To The Horror Of Global Warming Alarmists, Global Cooling Is Here - Forbes

Global Warming Alarm: Continued Cooling May Jeopardize Climate Science And Green Energy Funding! - Forbes

New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism


Here in the Real World, functional adults recognize the need to husband limited resources with the aim of addressing actual, rather than imaginary problems. (Hint: More people have been killed by Jihadis in the last week than have been killed by Global Warming since the invention of the steam engine.)
 

Fisher

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The Sun is not waning, Death Valley had 129 degrees the other day with a LOW of 104. Every decade has been warmer than the last and sea water temps keep rising.
Well, perhaps if you believe all those 92 or whatever it is peer reviewed studies that remove the peer-reviewed data from the Medieval Warming Period from their calculations because things inconsistent with their agenda are irrelevant.
 

Redress

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Thank you for the Chicken Little version of reality.

However:

BBC News - Climate slowdown means extreme rates of warming 'not as likely'

To The Horror Of Global Warming Alarmists, Global Cooling Is Here - Forbes

Global Warming Alarm: Continued Cooling May Jeopardize Climate Science And Green Energy Funding! - Forbes

New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism


Here in the Real World, functional adults recognize the need to husband limited resources with the aim of addressing actual, rather than imaginary problems. (Hint: More people have been killed by Jihadis in the last week than have been killed by Global Warming since the invention of the steam engine.)
In the Real World, functional adults actually read sources. Let me quote from your first source:

Writing in Nature Geoscience, the researchers say this will reduce predicted warming in the coming decades.


But long-term, the expected temperature rises will not alter significantly
Wait, that sounds like they are not saying AGW is not real. I wonder if they are more clear later in the article...

"We would expect a single decade to jump around a bit but the overall trend is independent of it, and people should be exactly as concerned as before about what climate change is doing," said Dr Otto.


Is there any succour in these findings for climate sceptics who say the slowdown over the past 14 years means the global warming is not real?


"None. No comfort whatsoever," he said.
See why functional adults read their sources?

Let's look at the other sources you give us. Functional adults tend to check who is telling us something. Peter Ferrara is not a scientist, but in fact is a lawyer. Larry Bell is at least a scientist, too bad his degree is not in anything related to the environment. James Taylor is a lawyer again, though he at least minored in atmospheric science. He is however not a scientist.

So what we learn is that any functional adult who bothers to look at your sources learns that scientists actually studying the issue say AGW is real, while those who are not scientists are trying to say something else. I wonder who a functional adult would find more credible in a discussion about science?
 

Fisher

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In the Real World, functional adults actually read sources. Let me quote from your first source:



Wait, that sounds like they are not saying AGW is not real. I wonder if they are more clear later in the article...



See why functional adults read their sources?

Let's look at the other sources you give us. Functional adults tend to check who is telling us something. Peter Ferrara is not a scientist, but in fact is a lawyer. Larry Bell is at least a scientist, too bad his degree is not in anything related to the environment. James Taylor is a lawyer again, though he at least minored in atmospheric science. He is however not a scientist.

So what we learn is that any functional adult who bothers to look at your sources learns that scientists actually studying the issue say AGW is real, while those who are not scientists are trying to say something else. I wonder who a functional adult would find more credible in a discussion about science?

Then why is the Greenland Ice core temperatures estimated by scientist to be colder now than they were 1,000 years ago, 2,000 years ago, 3,0000 years ago, 4,000 years ago, 5,000 years ago? http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/...gisp2/isotopes/gisp2_temp_accum_alley2000.txt

And while you are at it, exactly what were all those wooly mammoths that are thawing out in the ice pack doing when they got frozen? I mean animals are not that smart--they eat and poop and there was not a lot to eat if Siberia were as frozen over then as it is now.
 

Redress

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Then why is the Greenland Ice core temperatures estimated by scientist to be colder now than they were 1,000 years ago, 2,000 years ago, 3,0000 years ago, 4,000 years ago, 5,000 years ago? http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/...gisp2/isotopes/gisp2_temp_accum_alley2000.txt

And while you are at it, exactly what were all those wooly mammoths that are thawing out in the ice pack doing when they got frozen? I mean animals are not that smart--they eat and poop and there was not a lot to eat if Siberia were as frozen over then as it is now.
Odd how you failed to address anything I said...
 

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Odd how you failed to address anything I said...
Oh how odd you didn't even look at the raw data that was provided unless you can read, compare, and analyze data sets in less than 60 seconds because it refutes the whole AGW theory.
 

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Oh how odd you didn't even look at the raw data that was provided unless you can read, compare, and analyze data sets in less than 60 seconds because it refutes the whole AGW theory.
I suppose we should look at what actual scientists are saying about the data, instead of what you wish they where saying: Ice cores and climate change - British Antarctic Survey

Ice cores provide direct information about how greenhouse gas concentrations have changed in the past, and they also provide direct evidence that the climate can change abruptly under some circumstances. However, they provide no direct analogue for the future because the ice core era contains no periods with concentrations of CO[SUB]2[/SUB] comparable to those of the next century.
Damn scientists...
 

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I suppose we should look at what actual scientists are saying about the data, instead of what you wish they where saying: Ice cores and climate change - British Antarctic Survey



Damn scientists...
No CO2 is irrelvant. The raw data provided is about temperature. The Greenland ice pack raw data from a government source clearly shows that About 1,000 years ago average temperatures were about 1 degree higher than today; about 2,100 years ago average temperatures were about 2 degrees higher than today and about 3,300 years ago average temperatures were about 3 degrees higher than today in Greenland which totally debunks that we are getting warmer. Nice strawman by trying to switch it to CO2 levels though there is not a lot known about the stability of air trapped in the ice over large time frames and what effects that may have on the concentration measurement.

You attack another poster with brazen arrogance alleging they do not read anything posted and clearly you do not either because it does not serve your pathetic agenda to be condescending to anyone who does not agree with you. You still have not explained a freaking thing as to why the temperature estimates are higher over these periods if we are getting warmer and what exactly the wooly mammoth were doing to survive in Siberia for all that time before they were frozen if it was not warmer and they did not have food to eat. The reason is you cannot explain these things is because they are what they are--facts, not regurgitated soundbites from scientists people otherwise could care less about seeking their fame and fortune and research money on cooked data like cherry-picking between ice core samples from the arctic and the antarctic even though there is no indication that their respective climates are anything but completely independent of each other.
 

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Oh how odd you didn't even look at the raw data that was provided unless you can read, compare, and analyze data sets in less than 60 seconds because it refutes the whole AGW theory.
The odd thing is you didn't stay in a Holiday Inn and yet you have solved the entire AGW riddle with one stroke. How is that possible?
Why has total Earth water vapor increased 5% since 1920 and 4% since 1970?
 

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The odd thing is you didn't stay in a Holiday Inn and yet you have solved the entire AGW riddle with one stroke. How is that possible?
Why has total Earth water vapor increased 5% since 1920 and 4% since 1970?
The W stands for WARMING, not WETTING. At least pretend to stay at least in the same ballpark. Still doesn't change that the raw data has been provided and contradicts your assertion that we are warmer than we have ever been.
 

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In the Real World, functional adults actually read sources. Let me quote from your first source:



Wait, that sounds like they are not saying AGW is not real. I wonder if they are more clear later in the article...



See why functional adults read their sources?

Let's look at the other sources you give us. Functional adults tend to check who is telling us something. Peter Ferrara is not a scientist, but in fact is a lawyer. Larry Bell is at least a scientist, too bad his degree is not in anything related to the environment. James Taylor is a lawyer again, though he at least minored in atmospheric science. He is however not a scientist.

So what we learn is that any functional adult who bothers to look at your sources learns that scientists actually studying the issue say AGW is real, while those who are not scientists are trying to say something else. I wonder who a functional adult would find more credible in a discussion about science?
Do you seriously, now be honest, think that in light of centuries of study we can't predict long nor short term weather and climate trends with any accuracy, we need concern ourselves with yet another dire prediction about what might happen in decades to come?
 

Redress

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Do you seriously, now be honest, think that in light of centuries of study we can't predict long nor short term weather and climate trends with any accuracy, we need concern ourselves with yet another dire prediction about what might happen in decades to come?
Do functional adults always try and hide from their mistakes?
 

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The Sun is not waning, Death Valley had 129 degrees the other day with a LOW of 104. Every decade has been warmer than the last and sea water temps keep rising.
Have you ever done the math to show how the IR downforce effects the ocean? It is not in dispute that there is about 324 W/m^2 of IR down-forcing. The IPCC AR4 claims CO2 added 1.66 W/m^2. Now a simply proof that CO2 is not the cause of ocean warming is to understand that CO2 only changed the downforcing by 0.5%, according to the alarmists. When doing the calculations it becomes obvious that this is impossible for several reasons. Consider that the claim is about 0.6 degrees of warming in the top (i think) 700 meters of ocean. maybe it's 300 meters. Anyway, this would require a large part of that 1.66 number to do so. The imbalance that the ocean is said to absorb is also about 0.6, but W/m^2. If this is the imbalance, then that is completely laughable, because it is about 1/3rd of the 1.66 and means the ocean would also have to absorb about 1/3rd of the 324...

IR can do nothing but cool the ocean. Reason being is that nearly all of it is absorbed in the skin of the water, of less than 3 microns of depth. At the depth of penetration by spectra, it convects very little heat to the lower water, convects heat to the atmosphere, and causes a great deal of evaporation, which cools the ocean. Not heat it.

The Climate community is lying to us. It is the visible spectrum of the sun that travels hundreds of meters deep, and is c0mpletely absorbed. Solar changes this deep can take decades to see. I am all but certain this is why we are seeing the end of global warming either now, or very soon. The sun had an significant increase in average output from about 1900 to about 1950. Long lag time, but we are close to seeing the full effects of that change.

CO2 cools the atmosphere for different reasons. In the thermosphere, more CO2 changes more heat into spectra that leaves the earth. This in itself does little or nothing to cool the troposphere, but CO2 also blocks parts of the spectra that makes it to the surface, redirecting it back to space. It does the same thing in the upper atmosphere, but upward, as the greenhouse effect does on the lower atmosphere, downward. Now this is not the cause I speak of now. The same thing that captures and redirects IR outward, blocks that light from hitting the earth, effectively turning the heat of the sun down.

Question here becomes, does CO2 cause more heating or more cooling. Seems to me the net effect is close to zero.
 

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Lord of Planar

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Odd how you failed to address anything I said...
Why should he? All you did was follow someone else's lead. Do you understand the science? Can you exp0lain in your own words why warming is real, or do you just believe what others say?

I call the current university curriculum for climatology the society of the flat earthers. They teach radiative forcing wrong. They effectively rewrote what they didn't know, as fact, not understanding it was already a well known field of its own. They refuse to listen to reasonable people, so I say they believe the world is still flat.

Global warming is real, but it is not caused by our added greenhouse gasses. They have a very minor effect on the changes we see. The sun plays the largest role, and soot is second, but the largest man-made cause. It is this BC (black carbon/soot) that is melting the arctic ice and Greenland today. Not CO2. It is the sun's two increases since the maunder minima that is raising the earths temperature.
 

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Why has total Earth water vapor increased 5% since 1920 and 4% since 1970?
Source please. I'm curious about that. Are you saying it only increased 1% between 1920 to 1970? Are you saying 9%? Exactly how are those numbers determined?

The large increase since 1970 could be because we have been slowly polluting the skies. The EPA was established in the 70's, and over the next couple decades, we made serious progress at cleaning the air. More solar heating, more evaporation...
 

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Why should he? All you did was follow someone else's lead. Do you understand the science? Can you exp0lain in your own words why warming is real, or do you just believe what others say?

I call the current university curriculum for climatology the society of the flat earthers. They teach radiative forcing wrong. They effectively rewrote what they didn't know, as fact, not understanding it was already a well known field of its own. They refuse to listen to reasonable people, so I say they believe the world is still flat.

Global warming is real, but it is not caused by our added greenhouse gasses. They have a very minor effect on the changes we see. The sun plays the largest role, and soot is second, but the largest man-made cause. It is this BC (black carbon/soot) that is melting the arctic ice and Greenland today. Not CO2. It is the sun's two increases since the maunder minima that is raising the earths temperature.
Source please. I'm curious about that. Are you saying it only increased 1% between 1920 to 1970? Are you saying 9%? Exactly how are those numbers determined?

The large increase since 1970 could be because we have been slowly polluting the skies. The EPA was established in the 70's, and over the next couple decades, we made serious progress at cleaning the air. More solar heating, more evaporation...
Funny how you make a bunch of claims with nothing to back it up, but quickly ask others for sources.
 

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Funny how you make a bunch of claims with nothing to back it up, but quickly ask others for sources.
You have me wrong. I'm not disputing the water vapor, I'm curious about it. I don't see CO2 as increasing temperature, but I don't doubt it can increase vaporization. In post 19, I said "and causes a great deal of evaporation." Increased CO2, and the sun warming up together, can increase moisture more than one by itself.
 

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Of course they do! That's why it's so hard to find people who'll admit to voting for Obama.


If I ever make a mistake, I'll have to investigate this odd tendency.
 
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