Continuing Problems with Paleoclimate Proxies

[Jack Hays]

Sure can!

 

[Jack Hays]

[h=2]New Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstructions Are Devoid Of Michael Mann-Like Hockey Sticks[/h]By Kenneth Richard on 27. April 2020
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[h=4]New paleoclimate records from Europe, Scandinavia-Russia, China, and the northeastern USA indicate there has been no unusual modern warming. Instead, these newly published reconstructions show warmer periods and more rapid centennial-scale warming events occurred in past centuries, or when CO2 concentrations were much lower than they are now.[/h]United States
In the late 1990s Dr. Michael Mann heavily weighted tree ring evidence from North American bristlecone pines to construct the notorious hockey stick temperature graph featuring a sharp uptick in modern warming.
A new 2,500-year tree ring reconstruction (411 B.C.E. to 2016 C.E.) for the northeastern United States shows no unusual climate changes in recent decades have occurred in this region (Pearl et al., 2020). The authors suggest the tree species used, Atlantic white cedar, is “significantly correlated” with this region’s temperature.

[h=6]Image Source: Pearl et al., 2020[/h]Scandinavia, Russia
Another new dendroclimatology study (Shi et al., 2020) affirms Northern Eurasia (Sweden, Yamal) warmed 3 to 6 times faster during the 4th, 15th and 19th centuries than during the 1900s-2000s.
For example, the temperature record suggests it warmed 0.37°C to 0.85°C within the last century. During the Roman and Medieval warm periods as well as the 19th century, regional temperatues rose at much faster rates of 1.37°C to 3.31°C per century.

Further, the record shows regional temperatures were warmer during the first millennium than during the last century.

[h=6]Image Source: Shi et al., 2020[/h]China
Using ice cores, tree rings, lake sediments, and stalagmites from 28 proxy temperature reconstructions from throughout the “whole country” of China, Hao et al., (2020) find the “longest warm period on the centennial scale” occurred during the 10th to 13th centuries, or during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP).
The two warmest 30-year periods during the MWP are also “comparable” to the warmth of the most recent decades.

[h=6]Image Source: Hao et al., (2020)[/h]None of these Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions indicate there has been any unusual modern warming relative to the natural temperature variations of the last few millennia.

 

[Sunsettommy]

No. Tree ring proxies were never bad. Statistical incompetence and scientific malpractice were (and remain) bad.

He never accounts for differing RESOLUTION levels of proxy data, thus grafting a yearly resolution level temperature data onto proxies, that have resolutions that range from decades to over 100 years, which he doesn't provide a source link to.

He makes clear he has no idea how useless that chart really is.

 

[Threegoofs]

He never accounts for differing RESOLUTION levels of proxy data, thus grafting a yearly resolution level temperature data onto proxies, that have resolutions that range from decades to over 100 years, which he doesn't provide a source link to.

He makes clear he has no idea how useless that chart really is.

Ah.

The true expert on paleoclimatology weighs in.

Amazing how much expertise one can get from denier blogs and a career bagging groceries.

 

[Jack Hays]

Ah.

The true expert on paleoclimatology weighs in.

Amazing how much expertise one can get from denier blogs and a career bagging groceries.

As the number of papers contradicting MBH and PAGES continues to mount.

 

[Threegoofs]

As the number of papers contradicting MBH and PAGES continues to mount.

Sure they do.

On your denier blogs.

 

[Jack Hays]

Sure they do.

On your denier blogs.

In the peer-reviewed literature.

 

[Threegoofs]

In the peer-reviewed literature.

Yet... they don’t say what your denier blogs claim.

 

[Jack Hays]

Yet... they don’t say what your denier blogs claim.

Yes, they do. You should read more.

 

[Threegoofs]

Yes, they do. You should read more.

If they did, you wouldn’t post denier spam. You’d post Nature editorials saying that these little regional studies have become better than the hundreds of researchers that have worked for a decade on PAGES 2K (which, ill note some of your supposedly ‘skeptical’ authors are a part of).

 

[Jack Hays]

If they did, you wouldn’t post denier spam. You’d post Nature editorials saying that these little regional studies have become better than the hundreds of researchers that have worked for a decade on PAGES 2K (which, ill note some of your supposedly ‘skeptical’ authors are a part of).

The data are the data.

 

[Threegoofs]

The data are the data.

That’s why you post the spin.

 

[Jack Hays]

That’s why you post the spin.

Nope.

[h=6]Image Source: Hao et al., (2020)[/h]

 

[Jack Hays]

That’s why you post the spin.

And again.

[h=6]Image Source: Shi et al., 2020[/h]

 

[Jack Hays]

That’s why you post the spin.

And:

[h=6]Image Source: Pearl et al., 2020[/h]

 

[Threegoofs]

Three local/regional studies.

Probably already included in PAGES.

But your denier blogs didn’t tell you that.

 

[Jack Hays]

Three local/regional studies.

Probably already included in PAGES.

But your denier blogs didn’t tell you that.

If they were included then that would mark PAGES' turn away from MBH.

 

[Threegoofs]

If they were included then that would mark PAGES' turn away from MBH.

No.

But you wouldn’t understand.

 

[Jack Hays]

No.

But you wouldn’t understand.

Just more denial.

 

[Sunsettommy]

If they were included then that would mark PAGES' turn away from MBH.

The Hockey Stick paper was also a "regional" paper since most of the "data", was from a very small area of Western America.

 

[Sunsettommy]

These are published papers that threegoofs refuses to read, because he thinks they are tainted by being mentioned in a Skeptic blog, well here it is straight from their science publishers only. You are safe now....., no blogs at all.....

Springer Link

Multi-scale temperature variations and their regional differences in China during the Medieval Climate Anomaly

===

Quaternary Science Reviews

A Late Holocene Subfossil Atlantic White Cedar Tree-Ring Chronology from the northeaster United States

===

Springer Link

Ensemble standardization constraints on the influence of the tree growth trends in dendroclimatology

===

Climate Dynamics

Eastern Mediterranean summer temperatures since*730 CE from*Mt. Smolikas tree‑ring densities

===

Science Direct

Assessing non-linearity in European temperature-sensitive tree-ring data

===

Nature

Ancient air challenges prominent explanation for a shift in glacial cycles

===

What will be your excuse to avoiding all these published papers?

They are directly from parent publishers.

Still frightened?

 

[Threegoofs]

These are published papers that threegoofs refuses to read, because he thinks they are tainted by being mentioned in a Skeptic blog, well here it is straight from their science publishers only. You are safe now....., no blogs at all.....

Springer Link

Multi-scale temperature variations and their regional differences in China during the Medieval Climate Anomaly

===

Quaternary Science Reviews

A Late Holocene Subfossil Atlantic White Cedar Tree-Ring Chronology from the northeaster United States

===

Springer Link

Ensemble standardization constraints on the influence of the tree growth trends in dendroclimatology

===

Climate Dynamics

Eastern Mediterranean summer temperatures since*730 CE from*Mt. Smolikas tree‑ring densities

===

Science Direct

Assessing non-linearity in European temperature-sensitive tree-ring data

===

Nature

Ancient air challenges prominent explanation for a shift in glacial cycles

===

What will be your excuse to avoiding all these published papers?

They are directly from parent publishers.

Still frightened?

Nope.

What kind of discussion has this sparked to discredit PAGES at, say, the AGU meetings?

 

[Jack Hays]

Nope.

What kind of discussion has this sparked to discredit PAGES at, say, the AGU meetings?

If this episode runs true to academic form, the PAGES climbdown will be gradual and silent.

 

[Jack Hays]

NEW paleoclimate records from Europe, Scandinavia-Russia, China, and USA https://notrickszone.com/2020/04/27/new-northern-hemisphere-temperature-reconstructions-are-devoid-of-michael-mann-like-hockey-sticks/

 

[Jack Hays]

A new 411 BCE to 2016 tree ring temperature record from the northeastern US shows no such hockey stick exists. https://harvardforest1.fas.harvard.edu/sites/harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/files/publications/pdfs/Pearl_QuatSciRev_2019.pdf
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