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Continuing Problems with Paleoclimate Proxies (1 Viewer)

A new study affirms Northern Eurasia (Sweden, Yamal) has warmed 3 to 6 times SLOWER in the 20th century than during the 4th, 15th and 19th centuries. 1900s-2000s warming: 0.37°C to 0.85°C/100 yrs Roman, Medieval, 1800s warming: 1.37°C to 3.31°C/100 yrs https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-020-05179-5
 
Threegoofs said:
NOW rree ring proxies are ok.

And somehow, magically all paleoclimate data doesn’t automatically become a hockey stick.

Fascinating. [emoji849]
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The hockey sticks were produced by ​ex post sample selection and a poor grasp of statistics. Absent those shortcomings, there's nothing wrong with tree ring proxies. You would know this had you read any of the voluminous material posted here. You cannot make an argument out of your self-imposed ignorance.
 
Jack Hays said:
The hockey sticks were produced by ​ex post sample selection and a poor grasp of statistics. Absent those shortcomings, there's nothing wrong with tree ring proxies. You would know this had you read any of the voluminous material posted here. You cannot make an argument out of your self-imposed ignorance.
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And the statistics are good here because... you like the results?
 
Threegoofs said:
And the statistics are good here because... you like the results?
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I make no judgment about the quality of the statistical work in these recent papers, but we know the work was shoddy in the hockey stick papers.
 
Jack Hays said:
I make no judgment about the quality of the statistical work in these recent papers, but we know the work was shoddy in the hockey stick papers.
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Of course you make no judgement. You saw them on a denier blog and spit them up here.
 
Jack Hays said:
The journal editors and peer-reviewers made their respective judgments.
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The paper is still widely cited, and virtually every major paleoclimate expert is a part of PAGES 2K.

But the denier blogs you cull from dont care about that, and you don’t know any better, apparently.
 
Threegoofs said:
The paper is still widely cited, and virtually every major paleoclimate expert is a part of PAGES 2K.

But the denier blogs you cull from dont care about that, and you don’t know any better, apparently.
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The papers speak for themselves.
 
Jack Hays said:
Dramatically fewer in the past decade, and a number of those were of the "problems with" variety.
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No, it’s actively referenced now, which is pretty impressive for a 22 year old paper.

75 citations in scientific articles/books just the last year alone!

Google Scholar



Your blog spam has no references.
 
PAGES 2K under scrutiny.


Global Mean Temperature Flattens the Past

Guest post by Renee Hannon Introduction There have been recent discussions about ‘flattening the curve’ and some curves are easier to flatten than others. The Pages 2K Consortium calculates global mean temperature in a manner that flattens the long-term trend and makes present day temperatures appear warmer relative to past temperatures. Across the globe, temperature…

[FONT=&quot]Conclusions[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Pages 2K global mean published in 2019 does not capture the millennial cooling trend observed in Arctic and Antarctic regional temperature reconstructions. Their global mean relies on a database biased with Northern Hemisphere tree ring proxies which do not preserve long-term temperature trends of the polar regions.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The overall effect of the Pages 2K dataset and mean is to flatten temperature trends backwards in time, especially during the RWP and MWP which are key present-day analogs. The cooling descent into the LIA is largely removed. Warmer Arctic and Antarctic temperatures during the RWP and MWP are minimized and not represented by the global mean temperature.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Thus, the Pages 2K Consortium has flattened the global mean temperature profile in the past.[/FONT]

 
New Study: 11,500 Years Ago, Spain Warmed And Cooled ~3°C Within Decades…Warmth Was ‘Higher Than Current’

By Kenneth Richard on 7. May 2020
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At the end of the last glacial, when CO2 concentrations hovered around 250 ppm, there were abrupt warming and cooling events in the Spanish mountains (Béjar range) with magnitudes of 3°C within decades. Peak temperatures were at times warmer than today.

It has often been claimed that abrupt warming and cooling events with amplitudes reaching multiple degrees within 20 to 50 years were confined to records obtained from polar climates.
Greenland
Greenland, for example, warmed by 8 to 16°C “within decades or less” 20 or more times during the last 80,000 years (Li et al., 2019). . . .


New England (US)
In the northeastern United States, temperatures plummeted by 5.6°C within 200 years about 13,000 years ago (Hou et al., 2007). . . .


Western Spain (Béjar)
A new study (Lopez-Saez et al., 2020) of the Late-Glacial-Early-Holocene period (about 15,000 to 11,500 years ago) analyzes evidence of tree cover transitions in the western Iberian region (Spain).
 
[h=1]Hump Day Hilarity – How Science vs. Climate Science works[/h]Anthony Watts / 5 hours ago June 3, 2020
[FONT=&quot]The other day, I was in a conversation related to the climate science, and and I was trying to explain the scientific method, I was looking for a flowchart of steps, and found one. I also found one that compared the scientific method with the “science worshipper” method. While not exactly right, it struck me as being a good representation of climate science.

I’ve updated and enhanced the flowchart to accommodate the Popper Mannian method of climate science.
click to enlarge[/FONT]
 
Jack Hays said:
[h=1]Hump Day Hilarity – How Science vs. Climate Science works[/h]Anthony Watts / 5 hours ago June 3, 2020
[FONT=&quot]The other day, I was in a conversation related to the climate science, and and I was trying to explain the scientific method, I was looking for a flowchart of steps, and found one. I also found one that compared the scientific method with the “science worshipper” method. While not exactly right, it struck me as being a good representation of climate science.

I’ve updated and enhanced the flowchart to accommodate the Popper Mannian method of climate science.
click to enlarge[/FONT]
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This is nothing but Anthony Watts lying about climate science.
 
Buzz said:
This is nothing but Anthony Watts lying about climate science.
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It appears to me an accurate assessment of how the climate sciences deviate from proper scientific methodology.

Can you show us a flowchart of what the IPCC does?
 
Lord of Planar said:
It appears to me an accurate assessment of how the climate sciences deviate from proper scientific methodology.

Can you show us a flowchart of what the IPCC does?
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Odd.

It’s extremely well outlined on the IPCC website.

You would think you’d have read it, given that you read ‘all the papers’.
 
Jack Hays said:
You think so?
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Think?

It’s pretty clearly laid out. Every meeting, every deadline, every review....

I guess you never bothered to look either.

Weird, because every time I give you guys the link, you whine like babies.
 
Threegoofs said:
Think?

It’s pretty clearly laid out. Every meeting, every deadline, every review....

I guess you never bothered to look either.

Weird, because every time I give you guys the link, you whine like babies.
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Oh. It's just that none of that speaks to the critique in #493. I thought maybe you were talking about some other process.
 
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