CNBC Poll: Trump Approval Up To 48% in Swing States, Race Tightening

[Puigb]

Puigb, you're not reading carefully.

"The survey is the latest to find Trump closing the gap in Minnesota."

Reuben, you're lying to support a fake narrative.

and lol@you ignoring what I pointed out about the recent Hill poll.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Reuben, you're lying to support a fake narrative.

and lol@you ignoring what I pointed out about the recent Hill poll.

The article linked states that many polls are showing that Minnesota is getting tighter.

I can't vouch for every poll.

Your point about the Hill poll didn't pertain to swing states. Which is the topic of the thread.

 

[MaryP]

And let's not forget the silent Trump supporters who will not respond honestly to these polls and will, IMO, probably be the deciding factor in November.

What makes you think there are a bunch of secret Trump supporters out there? Sounds like wishful thinking to me.

 

[Puigb]

The article linked states that many polls are showing that Minnesota is getting tighter.

I can't vouch for every poll.

Your point about the Hill poll didn't pertain to swing states. Which is the topic of the thread.

Keep tap dancing Reuben. Literally ONE poll has them tied in MIN, a poll that also has Biden ahead five in PA, but you won't discuss that, will you?

 

[ReubenSherr]

What makes you think there are a bunch of secret Trump supporters out there? Sounds like wishful thinking to me.

Trump supporters are populists. They don't enjoy taking 50 question surveys from data-crazy liberal pollsters. And many don't return them.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Keep tap dancing Reuben. Literally ONE poll has them tied in MIN, a poll that also has Biden ahead five in PA, but you won't discuss that, will you?

Puigb, this thread is clearly about the CNBC poll.

Hence the title of the thread.

 

[MaryP]

And all the Trump supporters who don't return 50-page polls to bureaucratic liberal pollsters...

I've been called by two pollsters this week and they both leaned right.

 

[ReubenSherr]

I've been called by two pollsters this week and they both leaned right.

How did you know?

 

[MaryP]

Trump supporters are populists. They don't enjoy taking 50 question surveys from data-crazy liberal pollsters. And many don't return them.

Neither do a lot of Democrats, I imagine, Rueben. But you keep hoping, there, guy. Hope is what keeps us going.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Neither do a lot of Democrats, I imagine, Rueben. But you keep hoping, there, guy. Hope is what keeps us going.

Were you alive four years ago for the 2016 presidential election?

 

[Puigb]

Puigb, this thread is clearly about the CNBC poll.

Hence the title of the thread.

Well in that case, Biden is doing better than he was two weeks ago, nationally, and in four of the 6 swing states polled.

 

[MaryP]

How did you know?

Same way you know they're all data crazy liberals.

Actually, it was how they phrased the questions on health care programs.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Well in that case, Biden is doing better than he was two weeks ago, nationally, and in four of the 6 swing states polled.

Please link this. It isn't in the article.

 

[MaryP]

Were you alive four years ago for the 2016 presidential election?

To my undying horror, I was.

 

[ReubenSherr]

To my undying horror, I was.

Then you remember how off the swing state polls were.

Trump voters were underrepresented.

Also, remember that every single poll, except Rasmussen, overshot Hillary. Even if they were within the MOE.

 

[Puigb]

Please link this. It isn't in the article.

simply go on RCP and compare the results from this poll now from two weeks ago.

 

[Puigb]

Then you remember how off the swing state polls were.

Trump voters were underrepresented.

Also, remember that every single poll, except Rasmussen, overshot Hillary. Even if they were within the MOE.

Wronnnnnnggggg.

 

[PNW Guy]

Well in that case, Biden is doing better than he was two weeks ago, nationally, and in four of the 6 swing states polled.

At this point only Florida matters, all of this bs and Florida, the anus of 'murica gets to decide....

 

[ReubenSherr]

simply go on RCP and compare the results from this poll now from two weeks ago.

Where are you getting the CNBC poll swing state breakdown?

BTW I notice that Rasmussen shows Biden's lead cutting from +4 to +1.

And Biden's RCP lead down from +7.7 to +7.1.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Wronnnnnnggggg.

???

Every poll except Rasmussen estimated Hillary's lead to be larger than what it was.

And even more so in the swing states.

 

[Puigb]

Where are you getting the CNBC poll swing state breakdown?

BTW I notice that Rasmussen shows Biden's lead cutting from +4 to +1.

And Biden's RCP lead down from +7.7 to +7.1.

RCP.

And True on Rasmussen, however it also has Trump's approval down to 47% again. And Biden is still at or right at 50%, way ahead of Clinton 4 years ago.

 

[Puigb]

???

Every poll except Rasmussen estimated Hillary's lead to be larger than what it was.

And even more so in the swing states.

RCP averages had it pretty close actually, in fact they were more off in 2012 than 2016.

 

[MaryP]

Then you remember how off the swing state polls were.

Trump voters were underrepresented.

Also, remember that every single poll, except Rasmussen, overshot Hillary. Even if they were within the MOE.

Polls are by individuals. They predicted Hillary would win, and she did win the popular vote by three million. Personally, I think polls should be illegal to all but the political organizations and not be made public from the time of the conventions until voting is completed. It affects people's decisions--the popular appeal thing. And like you said, we may not be getting accurate information anyway.

 

[BrotherFease]

All what Biden needs is about 58 more electoral college votes and he's going to win the election. 212 votes are pretty firmly in his corner. Biden is still leading in Nevada, Arizona, NH, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn, Florida and Ohio. North Carolina is tied at the moment. Texas, Iowa, Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri are within Biden's grasp.

The race is tightening a bit. The polling margins are getting smaller, but at the end of the day, Trump is still struggling in the polls. Biden is still leading in most of them.

Trump has a much deeper road to win. I am not going to rule him out. If we learned anything from 1948 and 2016, never stop polling, always take into consideration that less than 10% of the public will make up their minds at the last minute.

 

[bubbabgone]

Your chart didn't disapprove what I stated. In the poll referenced in the OP, Biden did improve in four swing states compared to two weeks ago. That's a fact, and you didn't disapprove it.

However, the assertion that Biden can win without FL is true, where as Trump can't.

Regardless, there really hasn't been that much "tightening", as you people claim.

Those little blue arrows that were pointing down indicate loss of support for Biden.