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Clinton leads Trump by 12 points in Reuters/Ipsos poll

calamity

calamity

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12 points is pushing a landslide. At 14, she wins Texas.

Dump Trump.

Clinton leads Trump by 12 points in Reuters/Ipsos poll | Reuters

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican rival Donald Trump by 12 percentage points among likely voters, her strongest showing this month, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Tuesday.

The Aug. 18-22 poll showed that 45 percent of voters supported Clinton, while 33 percent backed Trump ahead of the Nov. 8 election.
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This is a full on blow out. I can only hold my mouth shut as I hold back the vomit in my creeping up my esophagus.
 
Yep, that Reuters/Ipsos poll is an outlier.

That said, the polls are still showing Clinton in a strong position, especially when looking at a state / Electoral College counts.
 
cpwill said:
:roll: outlier poll. No better than those who run up trumpeting that Trump is within a point or two.

RCP average as of this post is Clinton up by 5.9%. 5.9


At this point in the 2012 race, Romney was down by 1%, and at this point in 2008, McCain was down by 1.7%.

But Trump is gonna do fine. :roll: all his fans tell me.
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Yep. RCP average and 538 forecast are the most reliable indicators of where we sit. 538 gives Trump less than a 15% chance of winning. So, any GOPer living in the real world knows this is going to be a disaster.
 
TheGoverness said:
Even if he doesn't do fine, Trump's just gonna say it was rigged, and he'll still be a hero to these people.
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True, he has already gotten that message out to the fan club which are already pushing the excuses for why the voters are rejecting the Donald. The GOP could not have done a better job of handing the Whitehouse to Hillary had they tried, talk about blowing a golden opportunity, and unfortunately that will also result is the Senate going back to the Dems and if they think they do not like Obamas choices for the Supreme Court wait until they see Hillary's and she will get whomever see wants approved. We The People are doomed.
 
cpwill said:
:roll: outlier poll. No better than those who run up trumpeting that Trump is within a point or two.

RCP average as of this post is Clinton up by 5.9%. 5.9


At this point in the 2012 race, Romney was down by 1%, and at this point in 2008, McCain was down by 1.7%.

But Trump is gonna do fine. :roll: all his fans tell me.
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All true. The telling thing is the state by state polls - that's where the election is won or lost. I seriously doubt Trump can win enough of the key states, if any, to even get close. OTOH, Hillary's campaign could collapse under the weight of her past. I doubt it, but stranger things have happened. Of course, that assumes that Trump runs a flawless campaign from here on out. So far, the best he's managed is about a week, so the chances of a flawless campaign from here on out are, ah, zero.
 
TheGoverness said:
Even if he doesn't do fine, Trump's just gonna say it was rigged, and he'll still be a hero to these people.
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Yup. But it will matter a lot, I think, how big the loss was. More people will invest in a "stolen election" narrative if the loss of tight than if it is embarrassingly substantial.

Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk
 
cpwill said:
:roll: outlier poll. No better than those who run up trumpeting that Trump is within a point or two.

RCP average as of this post is Clinton up by 5.9%. 5.9


At this point in the 2012 race, Romney was down by 1%, and at this point in 2008, McCain was down by 1.7%.

But Trump is gonna do fine. :roll: all his fans tell me.
Click to expand...

As of today it is actually 5.4. Nearly all the polls are outliers this election, with far left wing pollsters dominating the rcp average, and the right leaning la times as the only opposing outlier.

So far pew and yougov have seemed to be the most accurate and least biased, the most recent latimes poll has identical finds to yougov, but it was also a joint poll, not a latimes exclusive poll
 
calamity said:
12 points is pushing a landslide. At 14, she wins Texas.

Dump Trump.

Clinton leads Trump by 12 points in Reuters/Ipsos poll | Reuters
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No link to the actual poll? That is strange. Another thing that is strange is that they give Clinton twice the point advantage than any other poll on RCP. The last poll on RCP from Reuters/Ipsos only gives Clinton a 5 point advantage. I wonder why they haven't posted this poll, two days after it was done. RCP keeps up on their poll tracking and it changes several times a day as the new polls data comes in.

What I have noticed is that Clinton has lost about a point or more a day in the last week. She has also decided to cut way back on campaigning and hasn't had an actual press conference in more than 7 months. Her schedule only shows 14 campaign events between now and the debate in October.

I have been watching the polls pretty closely. I don't think they make any difference this early in the race so that isn't the reason I have been watching them. I am watching them to see how they change in reference to the time left to election. At this point they can be totally off and it won't make any difference as far as how they are scored. They tend to get more accurate as they get closer to the election date. I am looking at how they change their procedures between now and election day.

This poll also doesn't take into account the recent revelations into the pay for play emails. The Washington Post, Arkansas Democrat, the Boston Globe (who endorsed Hillary) even called for the closure of the Clinton Foundation today.

RCP shows Clinton with a lead of 5.4 points right now. That is down from a lead of 7.9 points two weeks ago. Another factor that will be real interesting is how the debates will change the polls. I think the debates are going to attract record viewership.
 
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beerftw said:
As of today it is actually 5.4
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Yup. The numbers change as new polls come in. So, as of the end of the day, Trump is down by 5.4, at the point in time where Romney was down by 1 and McCain was down by 1.7.

Nearly all the polls are outliers this election, with far left wing pollsters dominating the rcp average, and the right leaning la times as the only opposing outlier.
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:raises eyebrow: "Nearly all the polls are outliers"?

Could you demonstrate this?
 
NonoBadDog said:
RCP finally included this poll today. The stated "12 point lead" is actually 7 or 8 points, depending on "likely" or "registered" voter.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_8.24_.16_.pdf
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The 12 point lead that calamity linked was a different poll. It covered Aug 18-22 and Reuters' article was dated Aug 24. This poll you mention covers Aug 20-24 and your link is dated Aug 24. The previous +12 point poll was never included in the RCP average.

I'm guessing someone told Reuters that people were on to them...maybe RCP told them...so they cooked another poll that RCP could run with.
 
Mycroft said:
The 12 point lead that calamity linked was a different poll. It covered Aug 18-22 and Reuters' article was dated Aug 24. This poll you mention covers Aug 20-24 and your link is dated Aug 24. The previous +12 point poll was never included in the RCP average.

I'm guessing someone told Reuters that people were on to them...maybe RCP told them...so they cooked another poll that RCP could run with.
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Ahh, okay. Thanks for setting that straight for me. Ispos does a constant running poll so who knows. We are in the season where some polls are more advertising and spin than actual polls.
 
cpwill said:
Yup. The numbers change as new polls come in. So, as of the end of the day, Trump is down by 5.4, at the point in time where Romney was down by 1 and McCain was down by 1.7.



:raises eyebrow: "Nearly all the polls are outliers"?

Could you demonstrate this?
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As in pollsters like bloomberg reuters etc tend to dominate the polls, which are well known as extremely biased, yet the right wing based pollsters have been absent except la times, which even rcp stripped many of their polls from their average. A few days ago rcp was listing polls from nearly a month ago for their average, which raises suspicion in itself why they would list polls then later strip them from ther avg.

Rasmussen has been absent for a while, rcp almost never includes pew even though they have the reputation of being the most non biased pollster, and fox news has been a now show since the one +10 for hillary poll. Why are the pollsters making up the average mostly left wing biased, whereas this time last election right wing pollsters were rushing in as fast as the left wing ones.
 
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