Canada’s Big Worry: A US Civil War (1 Viewer)

[Along Came Jones]

A new U.S. Civil War is not Canada's biggest or even most urgent worry. Depending on how you conceive of a civil war it ranks somewhere in the middle. Disruptions on the Horizon, produced by Policy Horizons Canada, defines and discusses several scenarios for which Canada should prepare for. Maybe we ought to be pestering our leadership to provide similar information about our preparation and likely response.

Under anticipated (not most likely) disruptions with the highest impact:

• Antibiotics no longer work
• Basic needs go unmet
• Biodata is widely monetized
• Civil war erupts in the United States
• Immigrants do not choose Canada
• Indigenous peoples govern unceded territory
• Infrastructure and property are uninsurable
• World war breaks out

Politico's Alexander Burns on the Civil War scenario:
There is one credible scenario for American civil war, drawn not from the distant past or from far away but from a recent, nearby example — Canada’s own.

The Quebec separatism battle of the 1960s was not a full-blown civil war, but it was a sustained, violent attack on the state, carried out by sectional militants who believed the federal system had changed in unacceptable ways. Nearly a decade of bombings, robberies and kidnappings culminated in the October Crisis of 1970, when Quebec separatists abducted and murdered Pierre Laporte, the province’s deputy premier.

This was a period of brutal, traumatic civil strife, and in a post-Jan. 6 world it is not wild speculation to envision a similar sequence of events in the United States. We are a heavily armed country with a contested federal system and proud, powerful provincial identities. Some of our states, like Texas and California, are quasi-national entities already. The next president is sure to be loathed by much of the country, and likely seen as illegitimate by at least a large minority.

It does not take a kaleidoscopic imagination to see how that set of conditions could lead to our own October Crisis. -- Alexander Burns, Canada’s Big Worry: A US Civil War, Politico, 06/11/2024

 

[Loulit01]

I think it's wild speculation. The situations aren't remotely similar.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

The big question is, if anything like that DID break out in the USA and it grew enough legs to seriously threaten the lives of Americans, would Canada accept refugees who were fleeing for their safety. Would they only accept MAGA's or would they choose to only accept NON-MAGA's? Would they accept any at all?

 

[SNOWFLAKE]

 

[holbritter]

View attachment 67514882

Did you read it? Sounds very interesting.

 

[SNOWFLAKE]

Did you read it? Sounds very interesting.

Yup. A bit hokey. But also gets under your skin. I like books like that.

 

[holbritter]

Yup. A bit hokey. But also gets under your skin. I like books like that.

In my cart. Thanks!

 

[SNOWFLAKE]

In my cart. Thanks!

Try these, it's a trilogy, very fast paced, no hokey bits. Can't put down books.

 

[holbritter]

Try these, it's a trilogy, very fast paced, no hokey bits. Can't put down books.

View attachment 67514918

Ok, thanks! Always looking for recommendations.

 

[SNOWFLAKE]

Ok, thanks! Always looking for recommendations.

So? Start a thread in book nook, you might he surprised what people come up with.

 

[CLAX1911]

A new U.S. Civil War is not Canada's biggest or even most urgent worry. Depending on how you conceive of a civil war it ranks somewhere in the middle. Disruptions on the Horizon, produced by Policy Horizons Canada, defines and discusses several scenarios for which Canada should prepare for. Maybe we ought to be pestering our leadership to provide similar information about our preparation and likely response.

Under anticipated (not most likely) disruptions with the highest impact:

• Antibiotics no longer work
• Basic needs go unmet
• Biodata is widely monetized
• Civil war erupts in the United States
• Immigrants do not choose Canada
• Indigenous peoples govern unceded territory
• Infrastructure and property are uninsurable
• World war breaks out

Politico's Alexander Burns on the Civil War scenario:
There is one credible scenario for American civil war, drawn not from the distant past or from far away but from a recent, nearby example — Canada’s own.

The Quebec separatism battle of the 1960s was not a full-blown civil war, but it was a sustained, violent attack on the state, carried out by sectional militants who believed the federal system had changed in unacceptable ways. Nearly a decade of bombings, robberies and kidnappings culminated in the October Crisis of 1970, when Quebec separatists abducted and murdered Pierre Laporte, the province’s deputy premier.

This was a period of brutal, traumatic civil strife, and in a post-Jan. 6 world it is not wild speculation to envision a similar sequence of events in the United States. We are a heavily armed country with a contested federal system and proud, powerful provincial identities. Some of our states, like Texas and California, are quasi-national entities already. The next president is sure to be loathed by much of the country, and likely seen as illegitimate by at least a large minority.

It does not take a kaleidoscopic imagination to see how that set of conditions could lead to our own October Crisis. -- Alexander Burns, Canada’s Big Worry: A US Civil War, Politico, 06/11/2024

There won't be a civil war in the US. A civil war is hardship. All you have to do is turn off Wi-Fi for 2 days at most and white flags would be already waving.

 

[gman]

Yup. A bit hokey. But also gets under your skin. I like books like that.

Gets under your skin? You mean just like you do to others? I imagine you wear it as a badge of honor.

 

[Airyaman]

There won't be a civil war in the US. A civil war is hardship. All you have to do is turn off Wi-Fi for 2 days at most and white flags would be already waving.

Elon will make sure you can get his Internet.

 

[Along Came Jones]

There won't be a civil war in the US. A civil war is hardship. All you have to do is turn off Wi-Fi for 2 days at most and white flags would be already waving.

Fair enough. But what caught my attention is our neighbor to the north believes it could be a possibility, albeit a moderate possibility. Then there is Burn's conception of civil war as a kind of political driven banditry and mayhem with the hope to spur widespread revolution. Two examples might be the Symbionese Liberation Army of Patty Hearst infamy and Germany's Baader-Meinof Gang (Red Army Faction).

 

[Risky Thicket]

Ok, thanks! Always looking for recommendations.

I just finished "The President is Missing" by James Patterson and Bill Clinton. That book rocks. It plot is feasible. It might keep you up a few nights.

But wait, Bill Clinton? Yeah, I was thinking, meh. Clinton's experience in the White House adds great authenticity to story and how it unfolds. I couldn't put the book down.

Also two international best sellers from Terry Hayes. Hayes' research is astounding. His writing style is evenly paced and there are no dead spots in the plot. I recommend reading them in order though it isn't necessary.

I Am Pilgrim

The Year of the Locust

I like these books so much I will not lend them to family or friends. Shame on me.

 

[SNOWFLAKE]

Gets under your skin? You mean just like you do to others? I imagine you wear it as a badge of honor.

Feel better now?

 

[Borg Refinery]

It's possible if Trump really does get back in or Abbott decides to really do something stupid and unilaterally declare withdrawal from the union or something else ..

I don't discount anything in this crazy world anymore.

I'm not sure Poilievre (seeing as it looks likely he's about to be the next PM) will be equipped to deal with this, given his track record..

 

[queenmandy85]

Mr. Burns description of the situation in Quebec in the 1960's and early 1970's is really over blown.

 

[Borg Refinery]

Mr. Burns description of the situation in Quebec in the 1960's and early 1970's is really over blown.

There is one credible scenario for American civil war, drawn not from the distant past or from far away but from a recent, nearby example — Canada’s own.

The Quebec separatism battle of the 1960s was not a full-blown civil war, but it was a sustained, violent attack on the state, carried out by sectional militants who believed the federal system had changed in unacceptable ways. Nearly a decade of bombings, robberies and kidnappings culminated in the October Crisis of 1970, when Quebec separatists abducted and murdered Pierre Laporte, the province’s deputy premier.

This was a period of brutal, traumatic civil strife, and in a post-Jan. 6 world it is not wild speculation to envision a similar sequence of events in the United States. We are a heavily armed country with a contested federal system and proud, powerful provincial identities. Some of our states, like Texas and California, are quasi-national entities already. The next president is sure to be loathed by much of the country, and likely seen as illegitimate by at least a large minority.

It does not take a kaleidoscopic imagination to see how that set of conditions could lead to our own October Crisis. -- Alexander Burns, Canada’s Big Worry: A US Civil War, Politico, 06/11/2024

Wiki:

The Front de libération du Québec[a] (FLQ) was a militant Quebec separatist group which aimed to establish an independent and socialist Quebec through violent means.[3][4] It was considered a terrorist group by the Canadian government.[5][6] Founded sometime in the early 1960s, the FLQ conducted a number of attacks between 1963 and 1970,[7][8] which totaled over 160 violent incidents and killed eight people and injured many more.[8][9] These attacks culminated with the Montreal Stock Exchange bombing in 1969 and the October Crisis in 1970, the latter beginning with the kidnapping of British Trade Commissioner James Cross. In the

Not sure how one can "overblow" that by calling it "not a full blown civil war, but a sustained violent attack on the state carried out by sectional militants" ..?

 

[queenmandy85]

Wiki:



Not sure how one can "overblow" that by calling it "not a full blown civil war, but a sustained violent attack on the state carried out by sectional militants" ..?

I would bet there is more violence on a New York Saturday night than anything the FLQ perpetrated. Over seven years, the violence was about the same as occurred in seven hours on Jan. 6, 2021.

 

[Fearandloathing]

A new U.S. Civil War is not Canada's biggest or even most urgent worry. Depending on how you conceive of a civil war it ranks somewhere in the middle. Disruptions on the Horizon, produced by Policy Horizons Canada, defines and discusses several scenarios for which Canada should prepare for. Maybe we ought to be pestering our leadership to provide similar information about our preparation and likely response.

Under anticipated (not most likely) disruptions with the highest impact:

• Antibiotics no longer work
• Basic needs go unmet
• Biodata is widely monetized
• Civil war erupts in the United States
• Immigrants do not choose Canada
• Indigenous peoples govern unceded territory
• Infrastructure and property are uninsurable
• World war breaks out

Politico's Alexander Burns on the Civil War scenario:
There is one credible scenario for American civil war, drawn not from the distant past or from far away but from a recent, nearby example — Canada’s own.

The Quebec separatism battle of the 1960s was not a full-blown civil war, but it was a sustained, violent attack on the state, carried out by sectional militants who believed the federal system had changed in unacceptable ways. Nearly a decade of bombings, robberies and kidnappings culminated in the October Crisis of 1970, when Quebec separatists abducted and murdered Pierre Laporte, the province’s deputy premier.

This was a period of brutal, traumatic civil strife, and in a post-Jan. 6 world it is not wild speculation to envision a similar sequence of events in the United States. We are a heavily armed country with a contested federal system and proud, powerful provincial identities. Some of our states, like Texas and California, are quasi-national entities already. The next president is sure to be loathed by much of the country, and likely seen as illegitimate by at least a large minority.

It does not take a kaleidoscopic imagination to see how that set of conditions could lead to our own October Crisis. -- Alexander Burns, Canada’s Big Worry: A US Civil War, Politico, 06/11/2024

There are deep, deep concerns about a civil, right against left, war in the US.

But equating anything of today with the Quebec separatist movement of the 60's is simply wrong.

First, the FLQ crisis has been studied into the dust. There IS no indication it was a revolution in any sense of the word, but established fact it was the result of the combining of some extremist groups forming the Front du Liberation du Quebec.

I lived through that. Yes there were troops in the street as the government of Canada was responding to a domestic terrorist threat,

There is no and never has been any indication there was any realistic threat to over throw the government through violence.

Most commentators today say Pierre Trudeau, the then Justice minister over-reacted, that the threat could have been more easily contained.

What I know is that as a news reporter at the time, my colleagues were more than familiar with the names of those being rounded up....most were convicted felons, many had outstanding drug charges. One police office at the city's infamous Station 10 told me, "we're trash collecting. All these FLQ have records and outstanding warrants."

Today, most Quebeckers want to be part of Canada. The separatists have been in decline for decades.

In the west however, there is great support for independence in Oil-rich Alberta and everything-rich British Columbia. That drive will only intensify if the Conservatives win the next election

 

[Borg Refinery]

I would bet there is more violence on a New York Saturday night than anything the FLQ perpetrated. Over seven years, the violence was about the same as occurred in seven hours on Jan. 6, 2021.

Um, J6 rioters never bombed a stock exchange, killed 8 people or kidnapped the British Trade Commissioner?

That's not an endorsement of J6 rioters in any way, shape or form, or the coup attempt at the capitol, it's just an observation..

 

[queenmandy85]

The War Measures Act was invoked at the request of Premier Bourassa. It wasn't an over reaction in my view.
Prime Minister Trudeau was at a cocktail party several years later when someone pointed out that if he hadn't been Prime Minister, he would have been rounded up with the others.
Trudeau nodded with a smile and said, "Yah, but I wouldn't have bitched about it."
I don't mean to minimize the danger of separation or civil war, but to call the bombings and the kidnapping "sustained violence," is a stretch.
Civil war is the most terrible form of war. Anybody who romantisizes separation of Texas or Alberta need to do some reading.

 

[Fearandloathing]

I would bet there is more violence on a New York Saturday night than anything the FLQ perpetrated. Over seven years, the violence was about the same as occurred in seven hours on Jan. 6, 2021.

I lived in Montreal then, working for a local radio station.

The truth is the FLQ was a core of a few radicals and a fringe of dis-organized pot smoking poets.

Believe it or not, the trigger was language. But not the way most Canadians think.

What English Canada never understood was that not only was English the language of business, but it was only taught to select Quebeckers. Those in the hinterland, the "Syrup heads" in rural Quebec were DENIED an English education....to ensure that they didn't rise in the economic chain or complete with English speaking Quebeckers.

We English have been sheltered from a lot of the shit perpetrated on a minority people. We need be grateful they don't hold as much of a grudge as we would

 

[Fearandloathing]

The War Measures Act was invoked at the request of Premier Bourassa. It wasn't an over reaction in my view.
Prime Minister Trudeau was at a cocktail party several years later when someone pointed out that if he hadn't been Prime Minister, he would have been rounded up with the others.
Trudeau nodded with a smile and said, "Yah, but I wouldn't have bitched about it."
I don't mean to minimize the danger of separation or civil war, but to call the bombings and the kidnapping "sustained violence," is a stretch.
Civil war is the most terrible form of war. Anybody who romantisizes separation of Texas or Alberta need to do some reading.

Boo Boo (Bourassa) as he was affectionately named, panicked, while Drapeau was littering his diapers worried it was bad for business....and might hurt the "Olympusism". Drapeau more than anyone was the pressure on that one!

Boo Boo lost his shit along with most of his cabinet. The MUC police KNEW exactly who was involved and it was only a matter of time. The QPF was made lead in what was a total political move. They tried and failed to shut out the RCMP.

Somebody spooked the one wing, THEY panicked and shot Pierre Laporte.

Then hell broke loose.

To this day, photos of Canadian Armed Forces on Montreal streets make my blood run cold.

PS - I was arrested and detained for much of a day as a reporter they didn't want asking questions of who I wwasking questions of.