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Bobby Kennedy

PoS

PoS

Minister of Love
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I am watching a new documentary about him on Netflix, and I have learned stuff I didnt know before. I wasnt even born when he died, but to the ones around back then, did he really have a chance to win the POTUS against Nixon if he lived?
 
PoS said:


I am watching a new documentary about him on Netflix, and I have learned stuff I didnt know before. I wasnt even born when he died, but to the ones around back then, did he really have a chance to win the POTUS against Nixon if he lived?
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I saw that documentary too - it's a good one. Like you, I wasn't born until after he died either... but I don't think he would have gotten the nomination. In '68, the majority of delegates were chosen by State conventions instead of primaries, and Humphrey pretty much had them sewn up by the time RFK was assassinated.
 
PoS said:


I am watching a new documentary about him on Netflix, and I have learned stuff I didnt know before. I wasnt even born when he died, but to the ones around back then, did he really have a chance to win the POTUS against Nixon if he lived?
Click to expand...


I think he could have beat Nixon.

It's hard to say because Jack really wasn't that popular in parts of the country, and Bobby was looked at as Jack's pit bull.
 
I'll have to watch that.

His brother was the most popular president ever so that would've helped.
 
PoS said:


I am watching a new documentary about him on Netflix, and I have learned stuff I didnt know before. I wasnt even born when he died, but to the ones around back then, did he really have a chance to win the POTUS against Nixon if he lived?
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Yes
If he lived, he would have been a two term president.
He was everything we are missing in a democrat candidate nowadays.
 
Cordelier said:
I saw that documentary too - it's a good one. Like you, I wasn't born until after he died either... but I don't think he would have gotten the nomination. In '68, the majority of delegates were chosen by State conventions instead of primaries, and Humphrey pretty much had them sewn up by the time RFK was assassinated.
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Humphrey is who I voted for but if Bobby was alive, he would have gotten the nomination.
 
RetiredUSN said:
I think he could have beat Nixon.

It's hard to say because Jack really wasn't that popular in parts of the country, and Bobby was looked at as Jack's pit bull.
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Interesting. From the documentary it seems he had a huge minority following, but I dont think they were numerous enough to be an influential force back then. How big was the minority vote at that time?
 
RetiredUSN said:
I think he could have beat Nixon.

It's hard to say because Jack really wasn't that popular in parts of the country, and Bobby was looked at as Jack's pit bull.
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I think in RFK v. Nixon.... the only State Kennedy loses that Humphrey carried would have been Texas. All of the rest of the States where JFK wasn't popular were either solidly for Nixon or solidly for Wallace.

Here's the Actual Electoral College Vote:
Nixon: 301
Humphrey: 191
Wallace: 46

So if Kennedy loses Texas (25), that brings him down to 166. On the plus side, though, he was a better campaigner than Humphrey, so he should have picked up some marginal states from Nixon... Let's say the following States swing to Kennedy:

Missouri (12) (Nixon carry by 1.13%)
New Jersey (17) (Nixon carry by 2.13%)
Ohio (26) (Nixon carry by 2.28%)
Alaska (3) (Nixon carry by 2.64%)
Illinois (26) (Nixon carry by 2.92%)

So that leaves the race looking like this:

Nixon: 242
Kennedy: 250
Wallace: 46

Now the key question is this... was Kennedy a good enough campaigner to swing California (40) (Nixon carry by 3.08%) over to his column? True, Kennedy did win the California primary... but only just barely, and that was against Eugene McCarthy. California was Nixon's home state... and it had a popular Republican Governor in Ronald Reagan. If Kennedy wins it, he wins the Presidency outright. But I'm thinking winning it would have been an uphill struggle.

So if Nixon carries California, then the Election goes to the House of Representatives. The Democrats have a majority there... but now George Wallace is in the catbird's seat. So how do the Southern Democrats in the states Wallace carried vote? Do they go for Nixon or Kennedy? I'm thinking they go for Nixon... the only question is how much of his soul would he have had to sell to Wallace?

Would have been a pretty dramatic ending to an already dramatic year, I think.
 
Outlook said:
Humphrey is who I voted for but if Bobby was alive, he would have gotten the nomination.
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Doubtful. The southern democrats hated him over civil rights, the unions hated him for his pursuit of Hoffa, Inc., and the anti-war movement was owned by McCarthy. The only way he could have won the nomination would have been buying support at the state and local levels in those states where party officials selected their winners.
 
Outlook said:
Humphrey is who I voted for but if Bobby was alive, he would have gotten the nomination.
Click to expand...

I don't know about that... I think there was a lot mythologizing about that possibility in the wake of his death, but when I look at it objectively, I don't see it happening. First off, he had narrowly come out with an edge over McCarthy for the anti-war primary vote, but McCarthy wasn't going to back down - he planned to keep on fighting his campaign to the bitter end. And Vice President Humphrey had pretty solid support from a lot of the party insiders, labor unions, etc. going back at least 20 years. I don't think that should be under-estimated - Humphrey was no slouch... and there was a lot of feeling that he had "paid his dues" and deserved his shot.

Maybe if McCarthy had withdrawn and endorsed Kennedy? That probably would have given Kennedy the momentum he needed... but it wasn't going to happen. By this point, the fight between the two of them had grown so bitter neither one of them was going to give an inch. And let's face it... it's not like Eugene McCarthy was exactly "pragmatic". Even if he did withdraw, it probably would have been along the lines of what Ted Kennedy did to Jimmy Carter at the Democratic Convention in 1980. A non-concession concession that ended up doing more harm than good.

I think likeliest scenario is that Humphrey wins the nomination but asks Kennedy to be his VP.
 
Drawdown said:
Doubtful. The southern democrats hated him over civil rights, the unions hated him for his pursuit of Hoffa, Inc., and the anti-war movement was owned by McCarthy. The only way he could have won the nomination would have been buying support at the state and local levels in those states where party officials selected their winners.
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They said the same thing against JFK when he ran against Nixon. They used his religion against him, being the first catholic elected.
Bobby was more popular than Humphrey. Bobby had the young vote. He was seen more as stopping the war.
 
Cordelier said:
I don't know about that... I think there was a lot mythologizing about that possibility in the wake of his death, but when I look at it objectively, I don't see it happening. First off, he had narrowly come out with an edge over McCarthy for the anti-war primary vote, but McCarthy wasn't going to back down - he planned to keep on fighting his campaign to the bitter end. And Vice President Humphrey had pretty solid support from a lot of the party insiders, labor unions, etc. going back at least 20 years. I don't think that should be under-estimated - Humphrey was no slouch... and there was a lot of feeling that he had "paid his dues" and deserved his shot.

Maybe if McCarthy had withdrawn and endorsed Kennedy? That probably would have given Kennedy the momentum he needed... but it wasn't going to happen. By this point, the fight between the two of them had grown so bitter neither one of them was going to give an inch. And let's face it... it's not like Eugene McCarthy was exactly "pragmatic". Even if he did withdraw, it probably would have been along the lines of what Ted Kennedy did to Jimmy Carter at the Democratic Convention in 1980. A non-concession concession that ended up doing more harm than good.

I think likeliest scenario is that Humphrey wins the nomination but asks Kennedy to be his VP.
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From what I remember Bobby attracted larger crowds and there was more energy surrounding his campaign.
 
Outlook said:
From what I remember Bobby attracted larger crowds and there was more energy surrounding his campaign.
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That may well be... but Kennedy still only beat McCarthy 46-42% in the California primary. The week before McCarthy had trounced Kennedy in Oregon by 6 points, and the same night as California, McCarthy beat Kennedy in New Jersey by 5%. I think if California had gone the other way, Kennedy's campaign would have been in real trouble heading to the convention.
 
Outlook said:
They said the same thing against JFK when he ran against Nixon. They used his religion against him, being the first catholic elected.
Bobby was more popular than Humphrey. Bobby had the young vote. He was seen more as stopping the war.
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And JFK bought the WV primary to get there.
 
Drawdown said:
And JFK bought the WV primary to get there.
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Let's have a look at the facts... By the time of the West Virginia Primary, Kennedy had beaten Humphrey in 5 straight head-to-head contests (including Wisconsin, which was in Humphrey's back yard), and held a consistent 20 point lead over him in the Gallup polls. All of the momentum was behind Kennedy going into West Virginia.
 
Cordelier said:
Let's have a look at the facts... By the time of the West Virginia Primary, Kennedy had beaten Humphrey in 5 straight head-to-head contests (including Wisconsin, which was in Humphrey's back yard), and held a consistent 20 point lead over him in the Gallup polls. All of the momentum was behind Kennedy going into West Virginia.
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LOL if you want to look at the facts, Wisconsin was largely a Catholic state regardless of its proximity to Humphrey's back yard.
 
Rexedgar said:
Geezer...:mrgreen:

Rosey Grier must ring a bell, too!
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Needlepoint....

We were kids at the time. We were moving from Southern California to Northern California the next day. We were camped out on the floor of a neighbor's house. The news came on and the adults were in shock. Next morning the first words I asked were "Did they get the guy that killed Kennedy?"
 
PoS said:
[video=youtube;Io3uQ6Q4NlU]

I am watching a new documentary about him on Netflix, and I have learned stuff I didnt know before. I wasnt even born when he died, but to the ones around back then, did he really have a chance to win the POTUS against Nixon if he lived?
Click to expand...

My mother, who had no love for the Kennedy's thought the did. She thought he was a much more appealing candidate than JFK had been.
 
Drawdown said:
LOL if you want to look at the facts, Wisconsin was largely a Catholic state regardless of its proximity to Humphrey's back yard.
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Wisconsin may have had a large Catholic vote, but it was predominantly Protestant. Same goes for Pennsylvania (Kennedy 71%; Humphrey 4%). And what about Nebraska? The same day Kennedy won West Virginia, he also won the Nebraska primary with 89% of the vote, compared to Humphrey's 4%.

Humphrey needed a win in West Virginia just to stay in the race... but if Kennedy had lost, it would have been far from crippling.
 
the closing quote from the below-cited article:
“[RFK] alone among white American politicians might have been able to heal the widening divisions between black Americans and lower-income whites, between the hopeful young and a middle class that was turning away from hope,” Richard Goodwin wrote in his memoirs. “Bobby,” he added, “had the possibility of greatness.”
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RFK: What Would Have Happened if He Had Lived? - HISTORY

i was living in asia at the time, so i have no way to gauge what the American voter was feeling, but i would like to think he would have positively changed our nation's trajectory for the future
 
Cordelier said:
I think in RFK v. Nixon....
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RFK would have destroyed Nixon. The nation had huge affection for him 5 years after the assassination of JFK, he was seen as the person who could heal the nation, and the large part of the Democratic Party that caused LBJ not to be electable over Vietnam would have rushed to Kennedy, while Humphrey was loyal to LBJ and the war, and Nixon had a half-ass lie about ending it.
 
Cordelier said:
I think likeliest scenario is that Humphrey wins the nomination but asks Kennedy to be his VP.
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I don't think Kennedy would accept VP. He'd either win the nomination or remain a Senator. And Humphrey would understand that Kennedy had his own following that would conflict with him in the VP spot. Kennedy hated LBJ, and Humphrey was very loyal to LBJ. I just don't seen that happening.
 
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