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BLS, We Have A Problem: Polled Unemployment Soars To March 2012 Levels

Wehrwolfen

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By Tyler Durden's
08/22/2013

BLSBureau of Labor Statistics GallupUnemployment


Gallup tracks daily the percentage of U.S. adults, aged 18 and older, who are underemployed, unemployed, and employed full-time for an employer, without seasonal adjustment. Due to the lack of Arima-X 'magic' the results are specifically not comparable to the BLS data, but, as the chart below suggests, the correlation is high. What is most worrying about the latest data is the rapid rise in both unemployment and underemployment that the Gallup poll finds (to 8.9% unemployment and 17.9% underemployment. Unemployment rates have jumped notably in the last month to their highest in 13 months. Will the Fed 'allow' this data to filter into the BLS data and 'avoid the Taper' or are there non-economic reasons (G-20, deficits, technicals, sentiment) that the Fed needs to SepTaper.


[Excerpt]

Read more:
BLS, We Have A Problem: Polled Unemployment Soars To March 2012 Levels | Zero Hedge

The lies of the Obama Totalitarian regime keep coming. We all know that unemployment within the United States is much greater than Obama talking head have told us.
 

Dittohead not!

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By Tyler Durden's
08/22/2013

BLSBureau of Labor Statistics GallupUnemployment


Gallup tracks daily the percentage of U.S. adults, aged 18 and older, who are underemployed, unemployed, and employed full-time for an employer, without seasonal adjustment. Due to the lack of Arima-X 'magic' the results are specifically not comparable to the BLS data, but, as the chart below suggests, the correlation is high. What is most worrying about the latest data is the rapid rise in both unemployment and underemployment that the Gallup poll finds (to 8.9% unemployment and 17.9% underemployment. Unemployment rates have jumped notably in the last month to their highest in 13 months. Will the Fed 'allow' this data to filter into the BLS data and 'avoid the Taper' or are there non-economic reasons (G-20, deficits, technicals, sentiment) that the Fed needs to SepTaper.


[Excerpt]

Read more:
BLS, We Have A Problem: Polled Unemployment Soars To March 2012 Levels | Zero Hedge

The lies of the Obama Totalitarian regime keep coming. We all know that unemployment within the United States is much greater than Obama talking head have told us.
I'm not sure about your source, but the 8.9 and 17.9 percent figures do check out with Gallup.

When more than a quarter of the workforce is either unemployed or underemployed, when less than 44% of the adult population is actually employed, then the economy is in trouble.
 

Redress

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By Tyler Durden's
08/22/2013

BLSBureau of Labor Statistics GallupUnemployment


Gallup tracks daily the percentage of U.S. adults, aged 18 and older, who are underemployed, unemployed, and employed full-time for an employer, without seasonal adjustment. Due to the lack of Arima-X 'magic' the results are specifically not comparable to the BLS data, but, as the chart below suggests, the correlation is high. What is most worrying about the latest data is the rapid rise in both unemployment and underemployment that the Gallup poll finds (to 8.9% unemployment and 17.9% underemployment. Unemployment rates have jumped notably in the last month to their highest in 13 months. Will the Fed 'allow' this data to filter into the BLS data and 'avoid the Taper' or are there non-economic reasons (G-20, deficits, technicals, sentiment) that the Fed needs to SepTaper.


[Excerpt]

Read more:
BLS, We Have A Problem: Polled Unemployment Soars To March 2012 Levels | Zero Hedge

The lies of the Obama Totalitarian regime keep coming. We all know that unemployment within the United States is much greater than Obama talking head have told us.
Can you show us where the lie is here? You claim that Obama is lying, but you don't actually show one. Care to step up and for once back up your words?
 

pinqy

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By Tyler Durden's
08/22/2013

BLSBureau of Labor Statistics GallupUnemployment


Gallup tracks daily the percentage of U.S. adults, aged 18 and older, who are underemployed, unemployed, and employed full-time for an employer, without seasonal adjustment. Due to the lack of Arima-X 'magic' the results are specifically not comparable to the BLS data, but, as the chart below suggests, the correlation is high. What is most worrying about the latest data is the rapid rise in both unemployment and underemployment that the Gallup poll finds (to 8.9% unemployment and 17.9% underemployment. Unemployment rates have jumped notably in the last month to their highest in 13 months. Will the Fed 'allow' this data to filter into the BLS data and 'avoid the Taper' or are there non-economic reasons (G-20, deficits, technicals, sentiment) that the Fed needs to SepTaper.


[Excerpt]

Read more:
BLS, We Have A Problem: Polled Unemployment Soars To March 2012 Levels | Zero Hedge

The lies of the Obama Totalitarian regime keep coming. We all know that unemployment within the United States is much greater than Obama talking head have told us.
Could you please explain the methodological differences between Gallup and BLS and why, on the basis of those differences or proven instances of BLS,dishonesty (actually proven, not unsupported claims), you consider Gallup more accurate?

I thought not.
 

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Could you please explain the methodological differences between Gallup and BLS and why, on the basis of those differences or proven instances of BLS,dishonesty (actually proven, not unsupported claims), you consider Gallup more accurate?

I thought not.



The BLS deducts from the total those people that are no longer seeking employment. It also does not do a good job of tracking underemployment. Underemployment is partly mythic and partly real. In a good economy, there are more jobs that pay well. Some under qualified had these jobs in the previous better economy, but now have lesser jobs.

The Survey method depends on the opinion of those surveyed. If someone thinks they are out of work, they probably are.

Using the BLS stats from one decade ago:

Total employed at the end of July, 2013, according to the BLS is: 144,285,000. Employment to Population ratio is 58.7%.
Total employed at the end of July, 2003, according to the BLS was: 137,478,000. Employment to population ratio was 62.1%.

Obviously, about 3.5% of the population that would be employed in better times is currently out of work. It's not so bad for old geezers like me who already have everything paid for. The ones who are getting absolutely screwed are the young who are getting shunted aside and will never be able to fully recover from the set back this economy has dealt them.

The unemployment rate in 2003 was 6.2%. It's at least 3.5% worse now then then. Do the math.

By the way, the Dems were saying at that time that the economy was the worst since the Great Depression. That economy is envied by those who track these things today.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm
 
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Wehrwolfen

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Could you please explain the methodological differences between Gallup and BLS and why, on the basis of those differences or proven instances of BLS,dishonesty (actually proven, not unsupported claims), you consider Gallup more accurate?

I thought not.
Since you are so interested in the differences of methodology, why haven't you explained it to all of us. Surely your superior logic can explain the differences better than all of us.
 

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Since you are so interested in the differences of methodology, why haven't you explained it to all of us. Surely your superior logic can explain the differences better than all of us.
Why are you so afraid to defend the claims you post? That is kinda your responsibility. You tend to run when challenged though.
 

Wehrwolfen

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Why are you so afraid to defend the claims you post? That is kinda your responsibility. You tend to run when challenged though.
Seems I don't respond to Progressive Pavlovian cues. If you insist.


U.S. Payroll to Population and Unemployment Worsen in May

www.gallup.com/poll/162923/payroll-population-unemployment-worsen...

Gallup's unadjusted unemployment rate ... the BLS uses, and because of some differences in the ... of public opinion polls. For more details on Gallup's ...
 

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pinqy

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Since you are so interested in the differences of methodology, why haven't you explained it to all of us. Surely your superior logic can explain the differences better than all of us.
BLS: representative sample survey based on Census data, of 60,000 households a month using the week that contains the 12th as the reference period. Eligible participants are age 15 and older (only 16+ is published) not in the military, prison, or an institution. Households are in the survey 4 months, out for 8, back in for 4. 75% of the sample is the same in consecutive months and 50% the same for the same month in consecutive years. Initial and returning household are personal interviews, subsequent months can be by phone. Margin of error at 90% confidence is +/- 0.2 percentage points.

Gallup uses random digit dialing to poll around 1,000 people a day and uses a 30 day rolling average. It uses the same definitions as BLS except has to have a min age of 18. No constancy of the sample month to month. Margin of error at 90% confidence is +/- 0.7%.

So now can you explain why you think a poll wit smaller sample, larger error, and not as extensive is more accurate?

I have a mental bet as to whether you'll even try to defend Gallup as more accurate.
 

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BLS: representative sample survey based on Census data, of 60,000 households a month using the week that contains the 12th as the reference period. Eligible participants are age 15 and older (only 16+ is published) not in the military, prison, or an institution. Households are in the survey 4 months, out for 8, back in for 4. 75% of the sample is the same in consecutive months and 50% the same for the same month in consecutive years. Initial and returning household are personal interviews, subsequent months can be by phone. Margin of error at 90% confidence is +/- 0.2 percentage points.

Gallup uses random digit dialing to poll around 1,000 people a day and uses a 30 day rolling average. It uses the same definitions as BLS except has to have a min age of 18. No constancy of the sample month to month. Margin of error at 90% confidence is +/- 0.7%.

So now can you explain why you think a poll wit smaller sample, larger error, and not as extensive is more accurate?

I have a mental bet as to whether you'll even try to defend Gallup as more accurate.


It is best to compare apples to apples. Using the BLS official numbers, we see that the apple today is rotted compared to the apple of virtually any other Post War (WW2) time. Certainly in the bottom range.
 
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