Biden landslide creeps into view

[bearpoker]

A lot of false assumptions here.

Polling, immediately after the first debate, but before his Covid diagnosis, showed Trump gaining ground. Check the IBD and USC tracker the two days following the debate.

The "struggling economy" is nonsense. Our economy is recovering 10 times as quickly as it would be if Democrats were in office, everyone knows that.

Covid-19 "still out of control" is not accurate, if you are talking about severe cases.

No one cares about Trump's taxes. And Trump's approval didn't budge an inch as the result of the Woodward book, neither did his poll numbers at that time.

Much of this is liberal fantasy.

What DID drive down Trump's poll numbers was, surprise, his being hospitalized.

And now that Americans are getting the impression that Trump has recovered fully, polling, including The Hill and IBD, is showing him trending back up. IBD shows him gaining 2.5 points in the past day, and Rasmussen shows Trump with 46% support, compared to 40% last week.

Over Half Still Say They Are Likely to Vote Against Trump

Slightly more than half of voters still say they are more likely to vote against President Trump, a finding that hasn’t changed in a year of regular surveying.

www.rasmussenreports.com

In normal circumstances getting sick would result in sympathy expressed in better approval numbers. Trump's lower numbers when he got COVID was because people blamed him for flouting mask wearing and social distancing precautions.

 

[HennyBogan]

The Memo: Biden landslide creeps into view

A landslide victory for Joe Biden is now a realistic possibility.The Democratic presidential nominee has a lead of around 10 percentage points over President Trump in national polling averages, and…

thehill.com

From my understanding, the RNC is almost out of advertising money. Trump plans a barnstorming tour, but those that turnout at his rally's are already Trump supporters. He is attracting few new converts. Try as he might, Trump cannot escape coronavirus and his mishandling of the pandemic from the beginning. Especially damming to Trump are the Woodward recordings concerning COVID and his ugly comments about US military dead (losers and suckers). Adding to his problems are articles by the NYT concerning Trumps taxes and how his properties have served as "pay-to-play" influence conduits. Vulnerable GOP Congress critters are trying to put distance between themselves and Trump (they cannot - they have all acted as dedicated Trump enablers).

All that said, do not accept complacency. Make sure you VOTE!

Is that you Joe, nah must be one of your script writers ...... Joe you are not truly this delusional are you? This is a close contest

 

[Perotista]

This is an excellent post. Thank you.

I think Biden is going to have coattails for the same reason Trump is going to lose bigly: this is a repudiation election. Joe is exactly what he was projected to be: a completely safe, comfortable landing spot for the country. And I think the country is responding by letting it rip in regards to Trump and the GOP.

I’ve said this before: Trump’s base owns this. If they held him even a little accountable for the last 4 years, we may not be where we are and their boy might actually be on the verge of eking out another EC win.

Shall I say having 4 years of Trump's childish antics and very unpresidential behavior, his obnoxcious personality to grate on a lot of folks who either considered him the lesser of two evils or voted third party not liking or wanting either major party candidate to become the next president, a lot of these folks have moved into the Biden column. This election is all about Trump, getting rid of Trump. Biden as you state is a safe candidate to accomplish that. He comes across more or less as the adult in the room, a chance to return to normalcy, the saner choice if I may.

 

[bearpoker]

Has anyone else noticed that the lower a poll is rated, the higher it rates Trump?

 

[ReubenSherr]

In normal circumstances getting sick would result in sympathy express in better approval numbers. Trump's lower numbers when he got COVID was because people blamed him for flouting mask wearing and social distancing precautions.

There is zero evidence to back this up. It sounds like a CNN talking point.

Now that Trump is clearly healthy, and fully recovered, IBD, Rasmussen, and The Hill are already starting to show his national numbers ticking back up. And his RCP average is improving in Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

 

[bearpoker]

There is zero evidence to back this up. It sounds like a CNN talking point.

Now that Trump is clearly healthy, and fully recovered, IBD, Rasmussen, and The Hill are already starting to show his national numbers ticking back up. And his RCP average is improving in Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

I don't watch CNN. This is just my interpretation of the numbers. Why do you think Trump's approval went down when he got sick?

 

[ReubenSherr]

I don't watch CNN. This is just my interpretation of the numbers. Why do you think Trump's approval went down when he got sick?

Trump's approval did not go down when he got sick. It has been steady, or ticking up slightly.

If his approval had fallen when he got sick, I would agree with you. But the case is the exact opposite.

 

[BrotherFease]

A lot of false assumptions here.

Polling, immediately after the first debate, but before his Covid diagnosis, showed Trump gaining ground. Check the IBD and USC tracker the two days following the debate.

The "struggling economy" is nonsense. Our economy is recovering 10 times as quickly as it would be if Democrats were in office, everyone knows that.

Covid-19 "still out of control" is not accurate, if you are talking about severe cases.

No one cares about Trump's taxes. And Trump's approval didn't budge an inch as the result of the Woodward book, neither did his poll numbers at that time.

Much of this is liberal fantasy.

What DID drive down Trump's poll numbers was, surprise, his being hospitalized.

And now that Americans are getting the impression that Trump has recovered fully, polling, including The Hill and IBD, is showing him trending back up. IBD shows him gaining 2.5 points in the past day, and Rasmussen shows Trump with 46% support, compared to 40% last week.

Over Half Still Say They Are Likely to Vote Against Trump

Slightly more than half of voters still say they are more likely to vote against President Trump, a finding that hasn’t changed in a year of regular surveying.

www.rasmussenreports.com

Trump has done virtually nothing to help himself out. The polls have been very unkind to him. He doesn't have the same base as before.

How is it that he's losing among senior citizens? The answer is obvious: senior citizens have been the most vulnerable to both getting Covid and dying from it. When they see Trump waffling on masks and holding rallies without obeying health code regulations, they get a negative impression of him.

You can spin your wheels all you want my friend, but believing in make-believe doesn't create reality.

And once again, I am not a liberal. I recently took the IsideWith Quiz and they said I agreed with the GOP 75% of the time.

What is odd of your response to me, is how you ignored my last part about the undecideds and how they could turn the election around.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

Shall I say having 4 years of Trump's childish antics and very unpresidential behavior, his obnoxcious personality to grate on a lot of folks who either considered him the lesser of two evils or voted third party not liking or wanting either major party candidate to become the next president, a lot of these folks have moved into the Biden column. This election is all about Trump, getting rid of Trump. Biden as you state is a safe candidate to accomplish that. He comes across more or less as the adult in the room, a chance to return to normalcy, the saner choice if I may.

I mean...all Trump (maybe) would have needed to do is stop being so insane on covid. Now he’s all in on herd immunity, and that’s only so he can have his birthday parties.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Trump has done virtually nothing to help himself out. The polls have been very unkind to him. He doesn't have the same base as before.

How is it that he's losing among senior citizens? The answer is obvious: senior citizens have been the most vulnerable to both getting Covid and dying from it. When they see Trump waffling on masks and holding rallies without obeying health code regulations, they get a negative impression of him.

You can spin your wheels all you want my friend, but believing in make-believe doesn't create reality.

And once again, I am not a liberal. I recently took the IsideWith Quiz and they said I agreed with the GOP 75% of the time.

What is odd of your response to me, is how you ignored my last part about the undecideds and how they could turn the election around.

Note that Rasmussen shows Trump closing the gap 7 points in one week. They show Biden 5 points ahead as of today, compared to 12 points last week.

IBD and The Hill show similar trends.

Now that he is clearly healthy, out of the hospital, and back on the campaign trail.

Trump is also slightly closing RCP gaps in Nevada, Arizona, Ohio, and Florida.

Note the new Trafalgar poll showing Trump with a 2 point lead in Florida.

 

[Integrityrespec]

The Memo: Biden landslide creeps into view

A landslide victory for Joe Biden is now a realistic possibility.The Democratic presidential nominee has a lead of around 10 percentage points over President Trump in national polling averages, and…

thehill.com

From my understanding, the RNC is almost out of advertising money. Trump plans a barnstorming tour, but those that turnout at his rally's are already Trump supporters. He is attracting few new converts. Try as he might, Trump cannot escape coronavirus and his mishandling of the pandemic from the beginning. Especially damming to Trump are the Woodward recordings concerning COVID and his ugly comments about US military dead (losers and suckers). Adding to his problems are articles by the NYT concerning Trumps taxes and how his properties have served as "pay-to-play" influence conduits. Vulnerable GOP Congress critters are trying to put distance between themselves and Trump (they cannot - they have all acted as dedicated Trump enablers).

All that said, do not accept complacency. Make sure you VOTE!

Please keep promoting that idea. It will make the TDS pandemonium that much more interesting to watch. Amazing that democrats believe the double digit polling by democrats despite that in 2016 the same polls were patently false on election day.

 

[bearpoker]

Trump's approval did not go down when he got sick. It has been steady, or ticking up slightly.

If his approval had fallen when he got sick, I would agree with you. But the case is the exact opposite.

You just said that Trump's poll numbers went down when he was sick. Why do you think that was?

 

[bearpoker]

Note that Rasmussen shows Trump closing the gap 7 points in one week. They show Biden 5 points ahead as of today, compared to 12 points last week.

IBD and The Hill show similar trends.

Now that he is clearly healthy, out of the hospital, and back on the campaign trail.

Trump is also slightly closing RCP gaps in Nevada, Arizona, Ohio, and Florida.

Note the new Trafalgar poll showing Trump with a 2 point lead in Florida.

Note that there are other polls that show Biden ahead by 9 or 10 points and ahead in Florida by as much as13. That's why it's better to average all the polls together instead of calling out the ones you like.

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[PoliSciXtina]

The Memo: Biden landslide creeps into view

A landslide victory for Joe Biden is now a realistic possibility.The Democratic presidential nominee has a lead of around 10 percentage points over President Trump in national polling averages, and…

thehill.com

From my understanding, the RNC is almost out of advertising money. Trump plans a barnstorming tour, but those that turnout at his rally's are already Trump supporters. He is attracting few new converts. Try as he might, Trump cannot escape coronavirus and his mishandling of the pandemic from the beginning. Especially damming to Trump are the Woodward recordings concerning COVID and his ugly comments about US military dead (losers and suckers). Adding to his problems are articles by the NYT concerning Trumps taxes and how his properties have served as "pay-to-play" influence conduits. Vulnerable GOP Congress critters are trying to put distance between themselves and Trump (they cannot - they have all acted as dedicated Trump enablers).

All that said, do not accept complacency. Make sure you VOTE!

OMG. I just saw the Quinnipiac poll that has Biden up by 6 in Georgia. Lets do this !!!! LANDSLIDE!

 

[BrotherFease]

Trump is also slightly closing RCP gaps in Nevada, Arizona, Ohio, and Florida.

Note the new Trafalgar poll showing Trump with a 2 point lead in Florida.

Biden still leads in 9 out of the 11 swing states.

The latest poll out of Georgia had Biden ahead, making Trump's lead in Georgia down to .1%. But you make no mention of Georgia here.

Trafalgar poll is a Republican poll. They even had Biden ahead in Penn.

I'll let you know when I see an actual shift in the race. Right now, it's looking horrible. You have yet to respond to my thread about the state of the race, nor have you defended Trump's decision to continue to disregard public safety when it comes to his rallies.

 

[BrotherFease]

Note that there are other polls that show Biden ahead by 9 or 10 points and ahead in Florida by as much as13. That's why it's better to average all the polls together instead of calling out the ones you like.

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

There's been 10 polls for the month of October. Biden has led in 8 out of the 10.

Reuben also doesn't want to talk about how both the Georgia Senate races are leading toward the Democrats.

 

[bearpoker]

Biden still leads in 9 out of the 11 swing states.

The latest poll out of Georgia had Biden ahead, making Trump's lead in Georgia down to .1%. But you make no mention of Georgia here.

Trafalgar poll is a Republican poll. They even had Biden ahead in Penn.

I'll let you know when I see an actual shift in the race. Right now, it's looking horrible. You have yet to respond to my thread about the state of the race, nor have you defended Trump's decision to continue to disregard public safety when it comes to his rallies.

Trump just needs them to live till election day.

 

[Man0in3Black]

There is zero evidence to back this up. It sounds like a CNN talking point.

Now that Trump is clearly healthy, and fully recovered, IBD, Rasmussen, and The Hill are already starting to show his national numbers ticking back up. And his RCP average is improving in Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

You keep saying that, but it's just not true and I've tried to show you Trump's numbers are the same or LOWER in those places
Pennsylvania RCP rolling average:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden

www.realclearpolitics.com

If it's on their site, I'm not finding the rolling averages for Nevada and Ohio. I'd show you the trackers they have for those 2 states, but it's different polling groups which would skew the output.

I know you don't like The Guardian to show polling, but I read what they are doing on their rolling average page - -it is based ONLY on US polls and has caveats also noted:

US election polls tracker: who is leading in the swing states?

As the presidential campaign heats up, the Guardian is tracking the latest polling in eight states that could decide the election

www.theguardian.com

The caveats, listed right on this page:
"

We must caution that the polls – particularly some swing state polls – severely undercounted Trump supporters in 2016. We are not certain, despite assurances, that they they have corrected this. Additionally, they may be over-counting Democratic support (more people may say they will vote for Biden than actually turn out).

We present the latest polls with those caveats to be borne in mind."

 

[Aunt Antifa]

Why, yes, I do believe the Biden landslide is indeed coming into view.

 

[Captain America]

The Memo: Biden landslide creeps into view

A landslide victory for Joe Biden is now a realistic possibility.The Democratic presidential nominee has a lead of around 10 percentage points over President Trump in national polling averages, and…

thehill.com

From my understanding, the RNC is almost out of advertising money. Trump plans a barnstorming tour, but those that turnout at his rally's are already Trump supporters. He is attracting few new converts. Try as he might, Trump cannot escape coronavirus and his mishandling of the pandemic from the beginning. Especially damming to Trump are the Woodward recordings concerning COVID and his ugly comments about US military dead (losers and suckers). Adding to his problems are articles by the NYT concerning Trumps taxes and how his properties have served as "pay-to-play" influence conduits. Vulnerable GOP Congress critters are trying to put distance between themselves and Trump (they cannot - they have all acted as dedicated Trump enablers).

All that said, do not accept complacency. Make sure you VOTE!

Oh no.

Another "Biden's got this in the bag" thread.

I wish you guys would wait until AFTER the election to pass out neener-neener's and take victory laps.

Call me superstitious. But I've seen this movie before.

 

[bearpoker]

Oh no.

Another "Biden's got this in the bag" thread.

I wish you guys would wait until AFTER the election to pass out neener-neener's and take victory laps.

Call me superstitious. But I've seen this movie before.

Absolutely!!! The "L" word will never cross my lips. That's a sure fire jinx!

 

[jakiejakester]

25 women, ZERO evidence.

Meanwhile, we got videos, photos and audio of Joey and his creepiness.

It's amazing that someone could suggest that Trump, among many other things, is not the STALKER-IN-CHIEF. How can you doubt that he's not been a predator who has used his money and power to dominate women? We already know that he's paid off at least two since he's been married to Melania.

It's so bizarre that Trump's lemmings ignore everything "f'd" up that he does and then, in this instance, berate Biden for totally unsubstantiated claims of #metoo. Only lemmings can believe that Biden has less character than Trump. Lemmings!

 

[Rentoc]

You have decided to hand wave off 25 credible claims of rape. Do conservatives have any arguments that don’t revolve around “Nuh uh?”

How did you feel about the claims against President Clinton?

 

[ReubenSherr]

You just said that Trump's poll numbers went down when he was sick. Why do you think that was?

Because the liberal media was drilling the idea that Trump might die, or become unable to function as President.

Notice, Rasmussen now has him bouncing back up 7 points.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Why, yes, I do believe the Biden landslide is indeed coming into view.

???

You should probably check all the other polls.

Trafalgar has Trump up now in Florida, Arizona, and Ohio. And two points away in PA. Fox Orlando has Trump up in Florida as well. Even taken with a grain of salt, not indicative of a definite Biden victory.

Especially given that Trafalgar was recognized in 2016 as the polling firm which called swing states most closely.