Biden is in trouble.

[Jay59]

I think it's pretty obvious that they're looking to jump ship.

Biden's donor's are already panicking; his campaign actively seeks to minimize his appearances, and due to poor fundraising, he's had to break his own promise not to lean on SuperPACs. Just now Emerson polling (A- rating per 538) had Biden and Bernie tied at 27% nationally; his fall while glacial seems both consistent and inevitable. Further, he consistently ranks 4th in Iowa. As an aside, Buttigieg's Iowa performance isn't surprising as he outspends his nearest competitor in outlays there about 10 to 1, obviously angling for an all-in strategy/gambit.

I think all the institutional donors are in a bind. Sanders and Warren are very anti-business. Biden has family baggage and corruption issues. As hard as Schiff tries to keep them out of the impeachment hearings, Joe and Hunter keep coming up. Buttigieg is at least a clean, young face who can deliver a speech.

The real question is how will Super Tuesday go, the first weekend in March. Warren seemed to have the edge in California, but Biden had a big result from a respected pollster in October. Biden has a lead in North Carolina with Virginia unpolled. Texas is wide open. Polling in several states is non-existent. Even Texas and California are not well polled. Regardless, at this time Biden seems capable of ending the race when it is barely a month old. However, that does not take into account the impact of the early results.

 

[MrWonka]

Okay sure and he's helping the middle class prosper than ways Obama ever did.

I bet if Obama planted a bunch of Apple Seeds at the White house 8 years ago that finally bore fruit today you'd talk about all the nice Apple Trees Trump planted to.

 

[uptower]

There is still a path for Biden to win, but his ability to do well beyond the south east and deep heartland is very questionable.

Thoughts?

His ideas are too old and Millenials and xers seem confident in more progressive candidates this time. Despite being the same age he also lacks the energy of Sanders. When it comes to debates and town halls and rallies, he just won't wow people. Much like Clinton, she was 'better' than Trump, but otherwise, meh.

 

[iguanaman]

Biden was largely the front runner due entirely to name recognition and the fact he was Obama's VP. He was a very good choice for VP in my opinion, but he has always had issues being in the spotlight himself. I'm still thinking this is Warren's Nomination to lose.

So we are going with a woman again? There has never been a woman President. I think Biden should pick her for VP. No use making any choices that might lead to a repeat of 2016.

 

[MrWonka]

View attachment 67268574

bwhahahahahaha!!!! I love how you can fit all 8 black Trump supporters into one photograph.

 

[Surrealistik]

The office of the President has no such power. He’s peddling his own legislation - which still must be passed by Congress first whether he becomes President or not. If Sanders wants to legislate then he’s running for the wrong office.

The office of the president has plenty of power in terms of setting the agenda for his party, and punishing/pressuring those who dissent; certainly vastly more power in practice than one Senator, even if it has less formal/statutory power.

Have you considered the possibility that as the nations first African American President he had to be more careful with his words to avoid coming across sounding like an angry black man? I would honestly say that Bernie's ability to be angry on stage is itself white male privilege. I hope he uses it well, but we should acknowledge it for what it is.

I don't buy it. Obama never tried, and I don't think there would have been any problem with being forceful with dissenters given he went in on a very clear mandate.

The blue dogs were going to derail the AHC if the public option was adopted. That is what killed it not Obama. That is the problem with short memories.

Obama never even tried to pressure dissenters, and ultimately it came down to Joe Lieberman who Barack never so much as addressed: Lieberman: Obama Never Pressed Me On Public Option | HuffPost Canada

 

[Trump]

I bet if Obama planted a bunch of Apple Seeds at the White house 8 years ago that finally bore fruit today you'd talk about all the nice Apple Trees Trump planted to.

Trump attends new Apple factory opening in Austin.....jobs that Obama said were never coming back...remember the magic wand?:roll:

 

[iguanaman]

The office of the president has plenty of power in terms of setting the agenda for his party, and punishing/pressuring those who dissent; certainly vastly more power in practice than one Senator, even if it has less formal/statutory power.



I don't buy it. Obama never tried, and I don't think there would have been any problem with being forceful with dissenters given he went in on a very clear mandate.



Obama never even tried to pressure dissenters, and ultimately it came down to Joe Lieberman who Barack never so much as addressed: Lieberman: Obama Never Pressed Me On Public Option | HuffPost Canada

So you don't remember how close the vote was and how even that had a time window that was closing. Insurer money was flowing to those Blue dogs what sort of "pressure" would overcome that?

 

[Surrealistik]

There have been several Republican candidates who lost Iowa, then went on to win the primary. However, I can not recall any candidate losing both Iowa and NH, and going on to win their primary.

If Biden loses Iowa, but wins NH, he'll still be in the game. If he loses both Iowa and NH, yet wins NV and SC, he'll be damaged, but have a 50/50 shot. But if Buttigieg and Warren can win Iowa and NH, then one of them manages to win NV, it's almost a certainty that Biden will go on to lose, even if he stays strong in the South.

OTOH, if Warren or Buttigieg win both Iowa and NH, they will almost certainly go on to win.

California is a big factor with it being moved up in the primaries, and he ain't looking so hot there at all. I think Biden is probably going to be toast per the ongoing rate of decay; he could win, but it seems that with every day that passes, his odds are looking more and more tenuous generally in proportion to his exposure; hence him doing his best to try to run out the clock. The more conservative and black states are pretty much the only thing he can really bank on it seems with trends being what they are.

Buttigieg I don't think has any real clear path to the WH; he's all in on the early states, and essentially hoping to god that wins there will produce enough momentum to carry him through despite his terrible numbers pretty much everywhere else; it's ultimately a moonshot. Only Warren and Sanders have truly durable and reliable prospects.

 

[Napoleon]

The office of the president has plenty of power in terms of setting the agenda for his party, and punishing/pressuring those who dissent; certainly vastly more power in practice than one Senator, even if it has less formal/statutory power.

Let’s run with that for a minute. Sanders has no party. He only caucuses with the Democrats for the purposes of legislative cooperation and he’s only running as a Democrat to access its campaign infrastructure. He will not be the leader of the Democratic Party even if he wins and has no leverage.

 

[iguanaman]

Trump attends new Apple factory opening in Austin.....jobs that Obama said were never coming back...remember the magic wand?:roll:

LOL More fake news... The plant opened under Obama in 2013.

On Wednesday, Cook accompanied Trump, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, and the president’s daughter, Ivanka Trump, on a tour of a manufacturing plant in Austin, Texas. Both at the plant and after, the president suggested that the plant had just opened and that it was the result of his presidency. No one at Apple corrected him, even though it’s not at all the case: The plant, which is run by a company called Flex, has been making Mac Pro computers there since 2013.

Trump lied about an Apple plant opening and Tim Cook didn’t correct him - Vox

 

[Surrealistik]

So you don't remember how close the vote was and how even that had a time window that was closing. Insurer money was flowing to those Blue dogs what sort of "pressure" would overcome that?

The kind that threatens primarying and replacement fully backed by a highly popular, articulate politico with a mandate and substantial (at the time) national support behind him.

 

[Surrealistik]

Let’s run with that for a minute. Sanders has no party. He only caucuses with the Democrats for the purposes of legislative cooperation and he’s only running as a Democrat to access its campaign infrastructure. He will not be the leader of the Democratic Party even if he wins and has no leverage.

He obviously has a party, even if he's often not formally part of it; Sanders has a great deal of sweat equity invested in the Democratic party regardless of the labels involved. Moreover, he's running as a Democrat to avoid splitting the vote in a way that would spoil for the Republicans.

 

[iguanaman]

The kind that threatens primarying and replacement fully backed by a highly popular, articulate politico with a mandate and popular support behind him.

LOL That would only result in the GOP taking those seats. Blue dogs are in conservative districts.

 

[Surrealistik]

LOL That would only result in the GOP taking those seats. Blue dogs are in conservative districts.

Lieberman's seat wasn't a particularly conservative district, and in the end, he was the only remaining obstacle.

 

[Trump]

LOL More fake news... The plant opened under Obama in 2013.



Trump lied about an Apple plant opening and Tim Cook didn’t correct him - Vox

Austin, Texas — Apple today announced the start of construction on its new campus in Austin, Texas, as part of its broad expansion in the city. At a production facility just a short distance away, Apple is preparing to ship the all-new Mac Pro to customers starting in December.

Apple expands in Austin - Apple

 

[Helix]

anyone but Tweety.

 

[MrWonka]

So we are going with a woman again? There has never been a woman President.

And that matters why?

 

[Unitedwestand13]

I realize there’s some masochism involved. You want someone to promise you the moon and stars to set yourselves up for disappointment when you find out that a President cannot give you any of those things. You’re talking about candidates who have failed in all of their time in Congress to convince their colleagues to pass what they are proposing. That isn’t going to change just because they’re sitting in the Oval Office. Be careful with all that excitement. You’ll give Bernie another heart attack.

Is it wrong to ask for a candidate that people can believe in and know what that person stands for?

 

[Integrityrespec]

Buttigieg appears to making a surge akin to Warren's a few months back, where we've seen his numbers in Iowa make a dramatic rise, and one poll (though a small sample) shows him rising in New Hampshire as well.

After Bidens awful debate last night, where he couldn't seem to complete a thought without stumbling, or saying something heinously stupid, one has to wonder if the center of the party is beginning to calculate that he's simply past his sell by date, and they are looking for another candidate.

This has happened to Republicans before. Think back to when Gingrich ran in 2012 and seemed to have all the political capital needed to win, and then failed miserably in his primary fight. There's more to winning a primary than name recognition and being a former Speaker or VP, or being connected to a dynasty, and clearly Biden was not aware of this.

I'm not going to declare Biden's candidacy dead, but he's in major trouble. He's a distant third or fourth in Iowa, he's numbers in NH aren't great, and his latest debate performance is not going to help that, but he's still strong in South Carolina and other states.

There is still a path for Biden to win, but his ability to do well beyond the south east and deep heartland is very questionable.

Thoughts?

Let's be clear. Joe Biden is the choice of the old school moderate left who want to maintain control of he democrat party. Biden is their last best hope so to speak. Biden is clearly in trouble both because he is having trouble with being clear and not stumbling along when trying to convey an idea and because his past positions will emerge in the general. It's also clear he is in trouble because we are seeing Bloomberg and Deval Patrick enter the race to represent the moderate sector of democrats.
What is wrong with the rest of the candidates. Not electable is the fear, too left in many cases, too inexperienced perhaps in a few. Bernie and Warren are way left and scary to their moderate democrat voters. Harris and Booker are not gaining support, their messages not resonating with the voters, even among blacks Biden is killing them in support. Harris is seem as much too combative and may not be able to pull together different groups and Booker is too "inspirational" and too much a clone of Obama and not his own man. But the mainstream moderate democrats are not likeing these choices. The question is why not Buttegieg? Left but not too far left? Experienced but not too experienced? Served in the military but not decision making level? Nobody else in the group is drawing any attention. They are going to lose to Trump unless they impeach.

 

[Napoleon]

Is it wrong to ask for a candidate that people can believe in and know what that person stands for?

It is wrong to want a candidate who has fixed beliefs despite the fact that they’re running for an office in which they will be bombarded with new information all the time every day. “People can believe in” is a vaguery. I’ll give you some advice. If you want a candidate you can undoubtedly and unreservedly “believe in” and know what they stand for all the time then vote for yourself.

 

[MrWonka]

Apple expands in Austin - Apple

Bwahahahahahaahaha!!! So Apple already had a manufacturing plant in Austin, the most liberal city in all of Texas that has been open since 2013, and you want to give credit to Trump for that? My god man. That's some fine delusion you have there.

 

[MrWonka]

I don't buy it. Obama never tried, and I don't think there would have been any problem with being forceful with dissenters given he went in on a very clear mandate.

So you think if Obama would have just yelled at Republicans more they would have voted for his bills? I hope you're not serious.

 

[Gimmesometruth]

Apple expands in Austin - Apple

While Apple did claim in September that exemptions from tariffs the Trump Administration put in place made it possible to produce the new Mac Pro in Texas, a company called Flex has been assembling its high-end desktop computer there since 2013.

Apple also announced plans for a new 3 million square foot campus in Austin, that will not be a manufacturing plant, didn't open today and wasn't a part of the tour.

Trump ‘opens’ Texas Apple plant that’s built Mac Pros since 2013 | Engadget

 

[Chomsky]

Biden was largely the front runner due entirely to name recognition and the fact he was Obama's VP. He was a very good choice for VP in my opinion, but he has always had issues being in the spotlight himself. I'm still thinking this is Warren's Nomination to lose.

But neither Warren nor Buttigieg will show well in NC and the Southern States, and that is going to leave the field kinda' fugged.