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Are New York Polls Wrong?

NeverTrump

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How close do you think the race will get in New York? It's clear that Upstate New York feels that New York City does not represent them. Would enough of them get out to vote in order to get an upset vote in New York, but then, I would think that upset vote would go overwhelmingly for Trump? Will the votes in NY really be closer than what the polls say? What do you think will happen?

George Pataki: Ted Cruz Is Poised To Do Very Well In New York | RedState

Poll: Sanders closes gap in NY | TheHill
 

OrphanSlug

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Polls have been real hit or miss lately, unsure what to trust at this point given how a few recent State contests have turned out vs. what the polls told us prior to.
 

shagg

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How close do you think the race will get in New York? It's clear that Upstate New York feels that New York City does not represent them. Would enough of them get out to vote in order to get an upset vote in New York, but then, I would think that upset vote would go overwhelmingly for Trump? Will the votes in NY really be closer than what the polls say? What do you think will happen?

George Pataki: Ted Cruz Is Poised To Do Very Well In New York | RedState

Poll: Sanders closes gap in NY | TheHill

Bernie has surprised the people behind the polls a few times,but they've been fairly accurate for the most part. But for pretty much the whole race, it's been Shillary holding onto a shrinking lead. The longer people look at her the better Bernie looks. I'd say it's not so much about the accuracy of the polls (they're probably reasonably close), but how the game plays out between now and then and how much ground she loses (or pisses away) with voters.

NYC makes up ~45% of the states population (8.5 out of 19.5 million), I see Trump losing big. Even in rural areas his support is mixed in with a healthy amount of opposition. He's turned a corner in a way, his eventual defeat seems much more likely after the last few weeks.
 

reinoe

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Bernie has surprised the people behind the polls a few times,but they've been fairly accurate for the most part. But for pretty much the whole race, it's been Shillary holding onto a shrinking lead. The longer people look at her the better Bernie looks. I'd say it's not so much about the accuracy of the polls (they're probably reasonably close), but how the game plays out between now and then and how much ground she loses (or pisses away) with voters.

NYC makes up ~45% of the states population (8.5 out of 19.5 million), I see Trump losing big. Even in rural areas his support is mixed in with a healthy amount of opposition. He's turned a corner in a way, his eventual defeat seems much more likely after the last few weeks.

When you say Trump losing big in New York, do you mean Bernie? Because Trump is definitely winning NY, it's just a matter of whether he gets 51%+.
 

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How close do you think the race will get in New York? It's clear that Upstate New York feels that New York City does not represent them. Would enough of them get out to vote in order to get an upset vote in New York, but then, I would think that upset vote would go overwhelmingly for Trump? Will the votes in NY really be closer than what the polls say? What do you think will happen?

George Pataki: Ted Cruz Is Poised To Do Very Well In New York | RedState

Poll: Sanders closes gap in NY | TheHill

New York better come out for Mrs. Clinton.
 

disneydude

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Cruz is going to get slaughtered in New York. This will be great. My ideal scenario is for Trump to go into Cleveland with over 1200 delegates but short of the majority and then for the establishment to hand the nomination to Cruz. This will piss off Trump and his supporters and will ensure that Cruz runs as a third party....handing the election to Hilary in a landslide.

The one interesting caveat to this is a scenario where Trump runs as an Independent, prompting Bernie to realize that he could stand a real chance running as an independent as well. In this scenario it could be anyone's race.
 

bubbabgone

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Cruz is going to get slaughtered in New York. This will be great. My ideal scenario is for Trump to go into Cleveland with over 1200 delegates but short of the majority and then for the establishment to hand the nomination to Cruz. This will piss off Trump and his supporters and will ensure that Cruz runs as a third party....handing the election to Hilary in a landslide.

The one interesting caveat to this is a scenario where Trump runs as an Independent, prompting Bernie to realize that he could stand a real chance running as an independent as well. In this scenario it could be anyone's race.

Get some rest.
 

Exquisitor

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Cruz is going to get slaughtered in New York. This will be great. My ideal scenario is for Trump to go into Cleveland with over 1200 delegates but short of the majority and then for the establishment to hand the nomination to Cruz. This will piss off Trump and his supporters and will ensure that Cruz runs as a third party....handing the election to Hilary in a landslide.

The one interesting caveat to this is a scenario where Trump runs as an Independent, prompting Bernie to realize that he could stand a real chance running as an independent as well. In this scenario it could be anyone's race.

They'll hand the nomination to Cruz who was born in Canada?

Now I know it, we've all gone insane from environmental poisoning.
 

disneydude

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Get some rest.

I think it is a foregone conclusion that if Trump is not the nominee he will run as an independent. I think Bernie is much less likely...but with the current state of things, I could see him jumping in as well, in that he would only probably need about 30% of the electorate to get elected.
 

bubbabgone

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I think it is a foregone conclusion that if Trump is not the nominee he will run as an independent. I think Bernie is much less likely...but with the current state of things, I could see him jumping in as well, in that he would only probably need about 30% of the electorate to get elected.

It's hardly a foregone conclusion about Trump running as an Independent and Bernie is even less likely, I agree there.
But Bernie is no wild card.
And you didn't mention a 3rd party conservative shot if Trump IS the nominee.
That's been threatened too.
 

disneydude

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It's hardly a foregone conclusion about Trump running as an Independent and Bernie is even less likely, I agree there.
But Bernie is no wild card.
And you didn't mention a 3rd party conservative shot if Trump IS the nominee.
That's been threatened too.

True...but I think a conservative shot is a long one because they know it would destroy any chance the GOP has. I think Trump running as an independent is dependent on what happens at the convention. If Trump implodes and goes into a close convention, he might feel he was treated fairly. That's why I want Trump to go in with over 1200 delegates. If they steal the nomination from him where he is a clear front runner, he will feel cheated and will not take it sitting down.
 

RabidAlpaca

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Cruz is going to get slaughtered in New York. This will be great. My ideal scenario is for Trump to go into Cleveland with over 1200 delegates but short of the majority and then for the establishment to hand the nomination to Cruz. This will piss off Trump and his supporters and will ensure that Cruz runs as a third party....handing the election to Hilary in a landslide.

The one interesting caveat to this is a scenario where Trump runs as an Independent, prompting Bernie to realize that he could stand a real chance running as an independent as well. In this scenario it could be anyone's race.

God... This... I would love to see this happen. Trump and Sanders break off, forming their own parties, and we suddenly have a 4-way battle royale. That's how democracy should work, not having the two parties in power strangle other parties in the crib.
 

reinoe

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True...but I think a conservative shot is a long one because they know it would destroy any chance the GOP has. I think Trump running as an independent is dependent on what happens at the convention. If Trump implodes and goes into a close convention, he might feel he was treated fairly. That's why I want Trump to go in with over 1200 delegates. If they steal the nomination from him where he is a clear front runner, he will feel cheated and will not take it sitting down.

Trump will never get on the ballot of many states if he runs independent. The eligibility guidelines for several states is in MAY. The convention is after that. He doesn't have the organization to manage delegates and he's had 8 months to get it together. He certainly won't have what it takes to manage an independent run with only 4 months of planning.
 

disneydude

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Trump will never get on the ballot of many states if he runs independent. The eligibility guidelines for several states is in MAY. The convention is after that. He doesn't have the organization to manage delegates and he's had 8 months to get it together. He certainly won't have what it takes to manage an independent run with only 4 months of planning.

Trump would not run as an independent to win....he would run as an independent to exact his revenge on the Republican party that did him wrong. He wouldn't need to get on 50 ballots to do that.
 

Socrates1

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How close do you think the race will get in New York? It's clear that Upstate New York feels that New York City does not represent them. Would enough of them get out to vote in order to get an upset vote in New York, but then, I would think that upset vote would go overwhelmingly for Trump? Will the votes in NY really be closer than what the polls say? What do you think will happen?

George Pataki: Ted Cruz Is Poised To Do Very Well In New York | RedState

Poll: Sanders closes gap in NY | TheHill

I believe most will tell the poll taker what they want to hear and vote the way they want . Casting your vote is a private matter .
 

Casper

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I think it is a foregone conclusion that if Trump is not the nominee he will run as an independent. I think Bernie is much less likely...but with the current state of things, I could see him jumping in as well, in that he would only probably need about 30% of the electorate to get elected.

LOL, the President is not elected by the popular vote, you know that, right? It will either be the Republican or Democrat candidate that moves into the Whitehouse and at this point it looks like Hillary is a shoe in.
 

disneydude

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LOL, the President is not elected by the popular vote, you know that, right? It will either be the Republican or Democrat candidate that moves into the Whitehouse and at this point it looks like Hillary is a shoe in.

I understand that....however a third party candidate can work to split the vote. Get two independents running and it certainly would be a messy race.
 

Lovebug

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I shall wait and see. All that predicting is too time consuming and doesn't change much.
 

Casper

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I understand that....however a third party candidate can work to split the vote. Get two independents running and it certainly would be a messy race.
The GOP is split along lines that will not go away when one or the other gets the nomination, I believe after the election the GOP will be going through a major change and many will be purged. The Dems on the other hand will put aside their differences to support their Party listened to Bernie the other day where he said as much. Hence at this point Hillary will end up as the Next President whether we like it or not.
 

disneydude

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The GOP is split along lines that will not go away when one or the other gets the nomination, I believe after the election the GOP will be going through a major change and many will be purged. The Dems on the other hand will put aside their differences to support their Party listened to Bernie the other day where he said as much. Hence at this point Hillary will end up as the Next President whether we like it or not.

I hope you are right...and I think you are. I just have been concerned recently about a growing rift in the Sanders camp. I would hope that Bernie and his supporters would endorse Hillary but I can see (although unlikely) a situation where Bernie and his followers are miffed by the Democratic party. Especially if Bernie somehow gets more delegates, but Hilary wins due to the super-delegates.
 

SDET

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Because it's a closed primary with no way to change parties close to the election that Trump will get about 65 of the available 95 delegates in New York state. The polls can't be right or wrong because they artfully avoid giving numbers by region or Congressional district.
 

RAMOSS

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How close do you think the race will get in New York? It's clear that Upstate New York feels that New York City does not represent them. Would enough of them get out to vote in order to get an upset vote in New York, but then, I would think that upset vote would go overwhelmingly for Trump? Will the votes in NY really be closer than what the polls say? What do you think will happen?

George Pataki: Ted Cruz Is Poised To Do Very Well In New York | RedState

Poll: Sanders closes gap in NY | TheHill

Well, folks in NY do not like Ted Cruz. They have not forgotten his voting against federal aid when hurricane Sandy hit, yet pushed for aid for Texas in other disasters.

Sanders I think will do better than the polling.
 

haymarket

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Trump should do rather well in the Buffalo area as its blue collar ethic is perfect for his schtick. Combine that with the NY City vote and he should exceed that 50% threshold. Cruz & Kasich will end up within three or four points of each other and be lucky to take ten to twelve delegates from Trump in a few districts.

I expect Sanders do outperform the polls but still fall short to Clinton. I would expect the margin to be six or seven points.
 

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Polls have been real hit or miss lately, unsure what to trust at this point given how a few recent State contests have turned out vs. what the polls told us prior to.

Aside from a few contests I think most of them have been accurate. The only salient exception was Michigan and there seems to be good explanations related to the fiasco of 2008 which led to severe undercounting and polling algorithm discrepancies. I'm very open to be proven wrong though since I haven't been paying the closest of attention to the accuracy of the polls.
 

clownboy

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How close do you think the race will get in New York? It's clear that Upstate New York feels that New York City does not represent them. Would enough of them get out to vote in order to get an upset vote in New York, but then, I would think that upset vote would go overwhelmingly for Trump? Will the votes in NY really be closer than what the polls say? What do you think will happen?

George Pataki: Ted Cruz Is Poised To Do Very Well In New York | RedState

Poll: Sanders closes gap in NY | TheHill

RedState embarrassed again. Cruz did so well he got a whopping ZERO. :lamo
 
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