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Where are people getting that it is just one or two percent?
The actual death rate isn't the number of deaths divided by the number of total cases. It's the number of deaths divided by the number of total closed cases. According to Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,588,963 Cases and 94,942 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer , based on worldwide data, it is 21%.
If you do the math with the US reported data, it's close to 40%, probably because in most areas, we are only counting cases that have been confirmed by testing, and testing still isn't widely available. Someone I know had symptoms, went to a place that was designated as a testing center, and was told that they probably had it, but they needed to save the tests for those who had severe cases.
So with our number of cases being under reported, it's likely that the actual death rate in the US is just a tenth of what the reported numbers show, but that's still close to 4%.
Most strains of the flu have a one tenth of one percent death rate, so covid-19, apparently, is at least 40 times more deadly. Or am I missing something.
Where are people getting that it is just one or two percent?
The actual death rate isn't the number of deaths divided by the number of total cases. It's the number of deaths divided by the number of total closed cases. According to Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,588,963 Cases and 94,942 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer , based on worldwide data, it is 21%.
If you do the math with the US reported data, it's close to 40%, probably because in most areas, we are only counting cases that have been confirmed by testing, and testing still isn't widely available. Someone I know had symptoms, went to a place that was designated as a testing center, and was told that they probably had it, but they needed to save the tests for those who had severe cases.
So with our number of cases being under reported, it's likely that the actual death rate in the US is just a tenth of what the reported numbers show, but that's still close to 4%.
Most strains of the flu have a one tenth of one percent death rate, so covid-19, apparently, is at least 40 times more deadly. Or am I missing something.
1,588,963 Cases and 94,942 Deaths would indicate a mortality rate of about 6%, but as you noted many (if not most) COVID-19 cases remain unconfirmed. What numbers did you use (create?) to get a 21% mortality rate? Are you subtracting those who recovered from total cases or what?
Where are people getting that it is just one or two percent?
The actual death rate isn't the number of deaths divided by the number of total cases. It's the number of deaths divided by the number of total closed cases. According to Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,588,963 Cases and 94,942 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer , based on worldwide data, it is 21%.
If you do the math with the US reported data, it's close to 40%, probably because in most areas, we are only counting cases that have been confirmed by testing, and testing still isn't widely available. Someone I know had symptoms, went to a place that was designated as a testing center, and was told that they probably had it, but they needed to save the tests for those who had severe cases.
So with our number of cases being under reported, it's likely that the actual death rate in the US is just a tenth of what the reported numbers show, but that's still close to 4%.
Most strains of the flu have a one tenth of one percent death rate, so covid-19, apparently, is at least 40 times more deadly. Or am I missing something.
I used the figure that is directly on the link. It is just a little down from the top, on the right side, inside of a square.
The way you are computing it is you are including all reported cases, even if those cases are unresolved. The statistical error in this is that you have no way of knowing how many of the unresolved cases will result in recovery vs death. You have to use the number for total resolved cases, so that you are eliminating the cases that we don't have data for yet.
Regardless, even the 6% that you figured is far higher than what a lot of people are claiming (mostly the people who are saying that this is "just like the flu" and that we shouldn't take any special precautions). Your number is still 60 times the death rate of most strains of the flu.
The actual death rate is unknown because the denominator is unknown. The reported death rate is inversely proportional to the proportion of the population tested.
That (bolded above) makes no sense. Especially the use of "unresolved" cases - WTF does that even mean? If four people are shot, and one dies from their gunshot wound(s) then the morality rate (among those four gunshot victims) is 25%. That mortality rate does not change depending on how many of the three living gunshot victims required hospitalization or recovered.
You don't know what the number of resolved cases is. Many people get minor symptoms, get over it quickly, and never get tested.We do have a known denominator. We can divide the number of deaths by the number of total resolved cases, and get a reasonable estimate.
As time passes and we collect more info, I'm sure that will vary some, but if 40% of confirmed cases in a particular region die, I don't think that percent is going to change much with the next batch, unless something else changes, like a higher rate of testing or better treatment.
You don't know what the number of resolved cases is. Many people get minor symptoms, get over it quickly, and never get tested.
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