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Anyone else notice that the actual death rate is much higher than most people claim...

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Villiage Idiot
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Where are people getting that it is just one or two percent?

The actual death rate isn't the number of deaths divided by the number of total cases. It's the number of deaths divided by the number of total closed cases. According to Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,588,963 Cases and 94,942 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer , based on worldwide data, it is 21%.

If you do the math with the US reported data, it's close to 40%, probably because in most areas, we are only counting cases that have been confirmed by testing, and testing still isn't widely available. Someone I know had symptoms, went to a place that was designated as a testing center, and was told that they probably had it, but they needed to save the tests for those who had severe cases.

So with our number of cases being under reported, it's likely that the actual death rate in the US is just a tenth of what the reported numbers show, but that's still close to 4%.

Most strains of the flu have a one tenth of one percent death rate, so covid-19, apparently, is at least 40 times more deadly. Or am I missing something.
 
Where are people getting that it is just one or two percent?

The actual death rate isn't the number of deaths divided by the number of total cases. It's the number of deaths divided by the number of total closed cases. According to Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,588,963 Cases and 94,942 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer , based on worldwide data, it is 21%.

If you do the math with the US reported data, it's close to 40%, probably because in most areas, we are only counting cases that have been confirmed by testing, and testing still isn't widely available. Someone I know had symptoms, went to a place that was designated as a testing center, and was told that they probably had it, but they needed to save the tests for those who had severe cases.

So with our number of cases being under reported, it's likely that the actual death rate in the US is just a tenth of what the reported numbers show, but that's still close to 4%.

Most strains of the flu have a one tenth of one percent death rate, so covid-19, apparently, is at least 40 times more deadly. Or am I missing something.

1,588,963 Cases and 94,942 Deaths would indicate a mortality rate of about 6%, but as you noted many (if not most) COVID-19 cases remain unconfirmed. What numbers did you use (create?) to get a 21% mortality rate? Are you subtracting those who recovered from total cases or what?
 
Yesterday an article I read said deaths from this virus that were being posted were numbers of people who died in hospitals.

I took that to mean people who are dying at home probably weren't being counted... IDK...

I also read that in some places funeral directors were saying many of the bodies they are getting the directors are being told the dead didn't die from the virus, but the directors are sure they did. again, IDK...
 
Where are people getting that it is just one or two percent?

The actual death rate isn't the number of deaths divided by the number of total cases. It's the number of deaths divided by the number of total closed cases. According to Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,588,963 Cases and 94,942 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer , based on worldwide data, it is 21%.

If you do the math with the US reported data, it's close to 40%, probably because in most areas, we are only counting cases that have been confirmed by testing, and testing still isn't widely available. Someone I know had symptoms, went to a place that was designated as a testing center, and was told that they probably had it, but they needed to save the tests for those who had severe cases.

So with our number of cases being under reported, it's likely that the actual death rate in the US is just a tenth of what the reported numbers show, but that's still close to 4%.

Most strains of the flu have a one tenth of one percent death rate, so covid-19, apparently, is at least 40 times more deadly. Or am I missing something.

This is the newest narrative being pushed by the media to explain away the low fatality rate. In reality, deaths being misdiagnosed as COVID is almost certainly a bigger factor at this point, especially since a positive test result is not required to report a death as COVID caused.
 
1,588,963 Cases and 94,942 Deaths would indicate a mortality rate of about 6%, but as you noted many (if not most) COVID-19 cases remain unconfirmed. What numbers did you use (create?) to get a 21% mortality rate? Are you subtracting those who recovered from total cases or what?

I used the figure that is directly on the link. It is just a little down from the top, on the right side, inside of a square.

The way you are computing it is you are including all reported cases, even if those cases are unresolved. The statistical error in this is that you have no way of knowing how many of the unresolved cases will result in recovery vs death. You have to use the number for total resolved cases, so that you are eliminating the cases that we don't have data for yet.

Regardless, even the 6% that you figured is far higher than what a lot of people are claiming (mostly the people who are saying that this is "just like the flu" and that we shouldn't take any special precautions). Your number is still 60 times the death rate of most strains of the flu.
 
The actual death rate is unknown because the denominator is unknown. The reported death rate is inversely proportional to the proportion of the population tested. Those countries with the most extensive testing have a reported rate around 0.5%.

Then again, how useful is a single figure given that it varies so much depending on age and BMI?
 
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"Death rate" is an overloaded term. If you just look at confirmed cases vs confirmed deaths, you'd expect death rate to be HIGHEST when we are the peak because # confirmed cases is going down while deaths that lag them are still going up.

If by "death rate" you mean an actual rate, i.e. true # deaths / true # of infections (not current number of infections but PRIOR infections that either led or did not lead to the deaths), then it's very hard to measure. All numbers are wrong. # deaths does not account for many. # confirmed cases does not account for even MORE. An earlier study suggested a true death rate of 0.66%. I heard of another study today from northern Germany town that tested a large representative set of people suggesting 0.37%.

Even above death rate is arguably not accurate. Death rate does not account for deaths from OTHER causes that happened because stretched health care system did not take care of you properly. When the docs / nurses are thinking about and tending to CV19 patients that takes away from them thinking about and caring for heart attack, car crash, and the rest of the patients. Ambulances take longer to get to the places they are needed at. Etc.
 
Where are people getting that it is just one or two percent?

The actual death rate isn't the number of deaths divided by the number of total cases. It's the number of deaths divided by the number of total closed cases. According to Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,588,963 Cases and 94,942 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer , based on worldwide data, it is 21%.

If you do the math with the US reported data, it's close to 40%, probably because in most areas, we are only counting cases that have been confirmed by testing, and testing still isn't widely available. Someone I know had symptoms, went to a place that was designated as a testing center, and was told that they probably had it, but they needed to save the tests for those who had severe cases.

So with our number of cases being under reported, it's likely that the actual death rate in the US is just a tenth of what the reported numbers show, but that's still close to 4%.

Most strains of the flu have a one tenth of one percent death rate, so covid-19, apparently, is at least 40 times more deadly. Or am I missing something.

In the beginning they didn’t have a test, so COD was assigned according to symptoms. Having said that, many deaths were attributed to CV as the primary cause when the patient was so infirm they only need a slight nudge of respiratory distress to die.
 
I used the figure that is directly on the link. It is just a little down from the top, on the right side, inside of a square.

The way you are computing it is you are including all reported cases, even if those cases are unresolved. The statistical error in this is that you have no way of knowing how many of the unresolved cases will result in recovery vs death. You have to use the number for total resolved cases, so that you are eliminating the cases that we don't have data for yet.

Regardless, even the 6% that you figured is far higher than what a lot of people are claiming (mostly the people who are saying that this is "just like the flu" and that we shouldn't take any special precautions). Your number is still 60 times the death rate of most strains of the flu.

That (bolded above) makes no sense. Especially the use of "unresolved" cases - WTF does that even mean? If four people are shot, and one dies from their gunshot wound(s) then the morality rate (among those four gunshot victims) is 25%. That mortality rate does not change depending on how many of the three living gunshot victims required hospitalization, did not require hospitalization or recovered.
 
The actual death rate is unknown because the denominator is unknown. The reported death rate is inversely proportional to the proportion of the population tested.



We do have a known denominator. We can divide the number of deaths by the number of total resolved cases, and get a reasonable estimate.

As time passes and we collect more info, I'm sure that will vary some, but if 40% of confirmed cases in a particular region die, I don't think that percent is going to change much with the next batch, unless something else changes, like a higher rate of testing or better treatment.
 
That (bolded above) makes no sense. Especially the use of "unresolved" cases - WTF does that even mean? If four people are shot, and one dies from their gunshot wound(s) then the morality rate (among those four gunshot victims) is 25%. That mortality rate does not change depending on how many of the three living gunshot victims required hospitalization or recovered.

If four people are shot, one dies, and the other are still hospitalized, you know that the death rate is at least 25%, but it could end up being as high as 100%. Until the remaining 3 people are either discharged and considered healthy, or die, you dunno.

That's why we can't include people who have covid. We can only use the figure for people who know longer have it, because they have either recovered, or they have died.
 
We do have a known denominator. We can divide the number of deaths by the number of total resolved cases, and get a reasonable estimate.

As time passes and we collect more info, I'm sure that will vary some, but if 40% of confirmed cases in a particular region die, I don't think that percent is going to change much with the next batch, unless something else changes, like a higher rate of testing or better treatment.
You don't know what the number of resolved cases is. Many people get minor symptoms, get over it quickly, and never get tested.
 
You don't know what the number of resolved cases is. Many people get minor symptoms, get over it quickly, and never get tested.

We know the number of confirmed cases. So the death rate that Im referring to is the death rate for confirmed diagnosed cases. In the US it is around 40%, so if we are only confirming 10%, the overall deathrate would be around 4%, assuming that we don't have unconfirmed cases dying.

That is still a lot higher than some people are claiming.

I think I alluded to that in my OP, but I should have been more clear. Thanks for mentioning that.
 
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