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An Excellent Send-Up of Confirmation Bias Among the AGW Advocates

Nickyjo

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I'm not Jack, but if I may chime in here. . .

Pushing mileage standards to the detriment of cargo capacity and efficiency is just silly. Yes, the big heavy cars of my younger years were gas guzzlers--12 to 15 mpg was pretty good then--but we could pile six or seven folks--sometimes more--into them to go places and we frequently did. Taking two cars getting 30 mpg to transport the same number of people to a destination is not helpful, most especially when you factor in all the other components of energy consumption that is necessary to build, maintain, and operate a vehicle and the infrastructure to accommodate it.

If I drive a gas-guzzling Hummer 1 mile to work every day, I am not going to impact the environment more than your 30-mile commute in your hybrid.

As for cleaner coal, the USA is making strides to accomplishing that and the effort will continue as an affluent society demands clean water, clean air, uncontaminated soil and environment, as less affluent societies have the luxury to do. Coal is the most plentiful and cheapest fuel source on Earth and President Trump is on board to utilize it but also to develop processes to make it clean and environmentally friendly. That should be the emphasis and not just phasing it out because it isn't as clean as natural gas now. And yes, as natural gas is a plentiful and environmentally friendly fuel source, we should continue to drill, drill, drill.

When the carbon fuels gradually run out on Planet Earth, humankind will have developed fuel sources more like the visionary Star Trek models. I wish I could be around for that, but hopefully I'll get to watch. :)
Makes sense, you have a bigger family, drive a bigger car... Fine with me... tho I see fewer Hummers these days.
 

Jack Hays

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You leave aside the question, should we not increase mileage standards, push for cleaner coal (if that is possible), etc.? What do you suggest we do?
I actually don't think there's much more we need to do. Cleaner coal is probably a plus, but i see no need for higher mileage standards.
 

AlbqOwl

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Makes sense, you have a bigger family, drive a bigger car... Fine with me... tho I see fewer Hummers these days.
You don't see Hummers any more because GM went broke and downsized. Also Hummer was doomed to become obsolete because it could not realistically achieve the fuel efficiency standards passed by the Obama Administration and with high gas prices and a stagnant economy, Hummer was a natural victim. Auto makers were all for those standards though because as they downsized their cars and trucks, they would be able to cut their costs for each vehicle while charging more for them to meet the new fuel economy standards.

It was sold to the general public that the average car owner would save $8,000 in fuel costs over the life of an automobile. Of course they sort of left out the part that the vehicle would additionally cost much more than that $8,000 to achieve those fuel standards.

I have fond memories of drive in theaters that charged by the car. So we kids would manage to pack eight or ten of us in the car along with lawn chairs or blankets--sometimes put one or two in the trunk--to go see a good movie under the starts. I wonder if the downsized cars was the reason drive in theaters went out of business. Hard to say.
 

Tim the plumber

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My presumption is that starting up hundreds of millions of cars daily, burning coal, etc, have consequences. Scientists seem to agree, and have published articles documenting how. When the evidence changes I assume different articles and outlets will sing a different tune. Then we change policy. I will buy a '59 Caddy. Til then, I am glad cars will get higher mileage, that we plan to use less coal, etc.

Your presumption is not exactly good science.

Your idea that scientists agree comes from propaganda.

If you can manage to read any science papers which detail any actual trouble from a slightly wamrer world, and are credible, please tell me what it is.
 

Surface Detail

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Your presumption is not exactly good science.

Your idea that scientists agree comes from propaganda.

If you can manage to read any science papers which detail any actual trouble from a slightly wamrer world, and are credible, please tell me what it is.
Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide

"Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change."

Not that I expect you to take a blind bit of notice. On past form you'll simply ignore any answers to your question, and just keep asking it :roll:
 

Jack Hays

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Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide

"Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change."

Not that I expect you to take a blind bit of notice. On past form you'll simply ignore any answers to your question, and just keep asking it :roll:
Two for you:

ON CLIMATE SENSITIVITY AND WHY IT IS PROBABLY SMALL

Impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity

Posted on April 24, 2018 by niclewis | 281 comments
by Nic Lewis
We have now updated the LC15 paper with a new paper that has been published in the Journal of Climate “The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity“. The paper also addresses critiques of LC15.
Continue reading
 

late

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Two for you:

ON CLIMATE SENSITIVITY AND WHY IT IS PROBABLY SMALL

Impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity

[FONT=&]Posted on April 24, 2018 by niclewis | 281 comments[/FONT]
by Nic Lewis
We have now updated the LC15 paper with a new paper that has been published in the Journal of Climate “The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity“. The paper also addresses critiques of LC15.
Continue reading
Shaviv is not a climatologist, and his work in this area has been widely criticized. Even putting a charitable spin on it means that his work needs work. At the moment, it's in the lowest category.

The paper is part of ongoing work trying to get to a narrower range of estimates. It's at moments like this that I wish we had those gw satellites NASA wanted. In any case, this graph is from that paper:

 

Surface Detail

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Two for you:

ON CLIMATE SENSITIVITY AND WHY IT IS PROBABLY SMALL

Impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity

[FONT=&]Posted on April 24, 2018 by niclewis | 281 comments[/FONT]
by Nic Lewis
We have now updated the LC15 paper with a new paper that has been published in the Journal of Climate “The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity“. The paper also addresses critiques of LC15.
Continue reading
So how much of the planet will be rendered uninhabitable if Lewis and Curry's estimate is correct? Is there any reason to believe that their estimate of ECS from climate models is likely to be more accurate than Hansen's estimate from palaeoclimate data?
 

Jack Hays

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So how much of the planet will be rendered uninhabitable if Lewis and Curry's estimate is correct? Is there any reason to believe that their estimate of ECS from climate models is likely to be more accurate than Hansen's estimate from palaeoclimate data?
To answer your first question: none.

Neither LC15 nor LC18 is derived from climate models.

". . . At the heart of the difficulty surrounding the values of ECS and TCR is the substantial difference between values derived from climate models versus values derived from changes over the historical instrumental data record using energy budget models. The median ECS given in AR5 for current generation (CMIP5) atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs) was 3.2 K, versus 2.0 K for the median values from historical-period energy budget based studies cited by AR5.

Subsequently Lewis and Curry (2015; hereafter LC15) derived, using observationally-based energy budget methodology, a median ECS estimate of 1.6 K from AR5’s global forcing and heat content estimate time series, which made the discrepancy with ECS values derived from AOGCMs even larger. LC15 also derived a median TCR value of 1.3 K, well below the 1.8 K median TCR for CMIP5 models in AR5. . . .

We have now updated the LC15 paper with a new paper that has been published in the Journal of Climate “The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity“.[iv] The paper (hereafter, LC18) addresses a range of concerns that have been raised about climate sensitivity estimates derived using energy balance models. We provide estimates of ECS and TCR based on a globally-complete infilled version of the HadCRUT4 surface temperature dataset as well as estimates based on HadCRUT4 itself.[v] Table 1 gives the ECS and TCR estimates for the four base period – final period combinations used. . . . "
 
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Jack Hays

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Shaviv is not a climatologist, and his work in this area has been widely criticized. Even putting a charitable spin on it means that his work needs work. At the moment, it's in the lowest category.
So . . . it is your contention that the Institute for Advanced Study (IAS) made a mistake when they named Shaviv an IBM Einstein Fellow?
 

Jack Hays

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[h=1]Friday Funny: The neurobiology of “climate change denial”[/h]Guest essay by John Ridway Much work has already been undertaken to establish the cognitive foundation for the irrationality of climate change denial. Of particular note are the studies undertaken by Lewandowsky, Kahneman, Shapiro and O’Conner, identifying the many cognitive biases that invalidate arguments put forward by those who profess scepticism in the face of…
 

Surface Detail

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[h=1]Friday Funny: The neurobiology of “climate change denial”[/h]Guest essay by John Ridway Much work has already been undertaken to establish the cognitive foundation for the irrationality of climate change denial. Of particular note are the studies undertaken by Lewandowsky, Kahneman, Shapiro and O’Conner, identifying the many cognitive biases that invalidate arguments put forward by those who profess scepticism in the face of…
Yes, you already posted that.

The only person who seems to have been taken in by it is some fool who, ironically, calls himself a skeptic!
 

Deuce

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https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/time-to-rethink-corn/




[EU biodiesel production]

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-e...-to-stem-biodiesel-import-flood-idUKKCN1GJ2I9
The EU and USA are using all the world's food suppliers to ramp up the price of food.



Nope.





Utterly obvious unless you learnt your economics from Marx.
\





Do I need to substanciate that it is daytime?

[Life expectancy]


Poverty Facts and Stats ? Global Issues


Then you will need to read a graph. It might be hard due to you having to think about things you don't want to;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preston_curve#/media/File:PrestonCurve2005.JPG

There are rich in every nation. They cause the life expectancy numbers to increase particualrly as they are easy to count in a census.



www.un.org/esa/socdev/rwss/docs/2010/chapter2.pdf

The UN numbers are of about 3 billion people on less than $2.50 a day but then this particualr data is from 2005 so maybe all those poor people are driving cars now.





You will willingly blind yourself to the utterly obvious.





You are brainless in the face of the utterly obvious facts that show your chosen religion to be the biggest mass murder machine since the Mongol invaisions.
Literally one country on the planet was below a 50 year life expectancy in 2015. Chad. Population 15 million. This throws off your math. Worse, back when you did the math you did it wrong. Compounding the hilarity, your calculations presume literally 100% of mortality below that income level is attributable to biofuel related price increase. You know some people don’t even eat corn at all, right?
 
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Tim the plumber

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Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide

"Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change."

Not that I expect you to take a blind bit of notice. On past form you'll simply ignore any answers to your question, and just keep asking it :roll:
Do you think there is a remote posibility that we could burn all the fossil fuels in the world ever???

If so how the hell would we manage that?

If not then you have posted a deliberate misrepresentation of the situation. Are you proud of that?
 

Tim the plumber

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Literally one country on the planet was below a 50 year life expectancy in 2015. Chad. Population 15 million. This throws off your math. Worse, back when you did the math you did it wrong. Compounding the hilarity, your calculations presume literally 100% of mortality below that income level is attributable to biofuel related price increase. You know some people don’t even eat corn at all, right?
That the average life expectancy for any nation is above 50 has little to do with the poor of that nation living less than 50 years on average.

There are 3 billion people on less than $2.50 a day. UN figures.

This results in those 3 billion people having a life expectancy in the 40's.

If they had an effective doubling of income due to a halving of food prices and the general increase in economy of their fellows due to that drop in food price they would, in a few months, be looking at a life expectancy of around 60ish.

Your inability to look at a graph or comprehend the magnitude of the deaths cause by your chosen religion is not my fault. It is deep denial.
 

Tim the plumber

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late

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Jack Hays

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Judith Curry works for Big Oil.

"As Stephen Schneider, the eminent Stanford climate scientist who died prematurely last summer, told me: “It is frankly shocking to see such a good scientist take that kind of a turn to sloppy thinking. I have no explanation for it.”

I do.

Why I Wrote About Judith Curry | Climate Central

SSDD..
The link is old news (2010 whining) and there's no "Big Oil" connection anywhere.
 
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