Abortions? not with my taxes

[kerussll]

You've not taken any classes regarding probability have you?

I have actually. Double check my math if you like: there could be an error. Do you have a correction to make?

 

[Bodi]

But you did get a say. Society decided abortion should be legal when our representatives who we elected made these laws.

I am obviously talking about the spouse or family... not society.

 

[kerussll]

I am obviously talking about the spouse or family... not society.

Oh, my bad. So you're mad you can't make medical decisions for your family members?

 

[CaptainCourtesy]

She's not really THAT unlucky. Condoms are about 96% effective, and birth control pills are 99% effective with nearly perfect use. That means 4% of couples using only condoms will get pregnant within a year. 1% of those using the pill will get pregnant within a year. If you're using both, the odds are 4/10,000 or 1 in 2,500 of still getting pregnant each year. Considering how many couples are having sex in this country, that's quite a lot of responsible, birth control-using people still getting pregnant each year. And of course, the longer you have sex the better your odds are.

Unlucky, yes. But definitely not unheard of.

Though you are correct about the pill, you are not correct about condom use. Condoms are 96% effective IF they are used correctly. Most condom failures are due to improper use, not condom production flaws. I remember reading a study a while back that showed that less than 50% of people use condoms correctly. That reduces condom effectiveness significantly.

 

[kerussll]

Though you are correct about the pill, you are not correct about condom use. Condoms are 96% effective IF they are used correctly. Most condom failures are due to improper use, not condom production flaws. I remember reading a study a while back that showed that less than 50% of people use condoms correctly. That reduces condom effectiveness significantly.

Yeah, I used the perfect use statistic for that. Yikes, half of people use them incorrectly? How would you even do that? It doesn't look that complicated...

 

[Bodi]

Oh, my bad. So you're mad you can't make medical decisions for your family members?

Only one medical decision is in question here, and that is a father having no legal say in the killing of his developing child... a pretty selfish and an absolutely disgusting position that society has arrived at.

 

[mac]

I have actually. Double check my math if you like: there could be an error. Do you have a correction to make?

It's not your math that's the problem (sorta), it's that you ignored an awful lot of the variables to accurately make such a prediction. Mainly the relation of the various contraceptions like IUD, Condom, Oral, spermicide, etc. It's not just a matter of averaging two together and calling that the probability.

The IUD alone has less than a 1% failure rate, blowing your stats out the window.

 

[kerussll]

It's not your math that's the problem (sorta), it's that you ignored an awful lot of the variables to accurately make such a prediction. Mainly the relation of the various contraceptions like IUD, Condom, Oral, spermicide, etc. It's not just a matter of averaging two together and calling that the probability.

The IUD alone has less than a 1% failure rate, blowing your stats out the window.

Sorta? If there is a problem with my math, let me know about it. If you have no corrections or don't even understand the math involved, don't hint that you do. I'm not making predictions here. I'm calculating the failure rates for these birth control methods.

I picked the two most common and easily accessible forms of birth control to use for my example. IUDs are generally used in women who have already had a vaginal birth and require a minor surgical procedure to insert. So not the most universal form of birth control.

IUDs are no more effective than birth control pills taken with perfect use, but since you think my stats were "blown out the window" for some reason, let's do it again:

failure rate of IUD: 1/1000 per year times failure rate of condom 4/100 per year = 4/100,000 or 1/25,000 chance of getting pregnant per year. So suppose a couple has been married 10 years, using a condom all along (yeah, super realistic I know) The odds of getting pregnant during that time are 1/2,500. Like I said, it's unlucky but definitely not unheard of. So it's kind of sad that you hear this story and immediately go into a mindset that it's either a lie, or the woman screwed up somehow.

 

[mac]

Sorta? If there is a problem with my math, let me know about it. If you have no corrections or don't even understand the math involved, don't hint that you do. I'm not making predictions here. I'm calculating the failure rates for these birth control methods.

I picked the two most common and easily accessible forms of birth control to use for my example. IUDs are generally used in women who have already had a vaginal birth and require a minor surgical procedure to insert. So not the most universal form of birth control.

IUDs are no more effective than birth control pills taken with perfect use, but since you think my stats were "blown out the window" for some reason, let's do it again:

failure rate of IUD: 1/1000 per year times failure rate of condom 4/100 per year = 4/100,000 or 1/25,000 chance of getting pregnant per year. So suppose a couple has been married 10 years, using a condom all along (yeah, super realistic I know) The odds of getting pregnant during that time are 1/2,500. Like I said, it's unlucky but definitely not unheard of. So it's kind of sad that you hear this story and immediately go into a mindset that it's either a lie, or the woman screwed up somehow.

Alright, let me rephrase: Your math is fine but not all inclusive. And yes, statistical probability is a prediction. Unless you add in all the variables, like ovulation among others, than what you'll come up with is not exactly fact....it's prediction.

How about this: Over 80% of abortions result from unprotected sex. Of the remaining 20% roughly 15% of that is the result if using a single birth control incorrectly. 4% is using single birth control correctly, but possibly affected by other factors (like oral contraception in combination with some other medication that diminished it's effectiveness, for example). The last 1% of annual US abortions result from no identifiably reported flaw in either dual or single contraception.

 

[kerussll]

Alright, let me rephrase: Your math is fine but not all inclusive. And yes, statistical probability is a prediction. Unless you add in all the variables, like ovulation among others, than what you'll come up with is not exactly fact....it's prediction.

How about this: Over 80% of abortions result from unprotected sex. Of the remaining 20% roughly 15% of that is the result if using a single birth control incorrectly. 4% is using single birth control correctly, but possibly affected by other factors (like oral contraception in combination with some other medication that diminished it's effectiveness, for example). The last 1% of annual US abortions result from no identifiably reported flaw in either dual or single contraception.

Of course there are a million variables in any case where statistics are relevant. Statistics simplify these cases by averaging numbers from a large population. Then the other variables cancel out. You have couples in the statistical group that have sex every day and couples that have sex only on anniversaries. Women ovulate in different patterns, some more often, some less. You don't need to factor in individual ovulation patterns when you are looking at a group: and statistics are always looking only at a group.

My point wasn't disagreeing with the abortion statistics you provided. I am perfectly aware of those. I only wanted to point out that it wasn't completely unbelievable that this couple had a birth control failure. It happens, and it needs to be acknowledged. You annoyed me when you judged a woman you have never met for getting pregnant as if you could know the circumstances surrounding it, and that's why I posted.

That being said, there is a big problem with lack of affordable birth control, education, and general responsibility to use it properly. I agree with you there.

 

[mac]

Of course there are a million variables in any case where statistics are relevant. Statistics simplify these cases by averaging numbers from a large population. Then the other variables cancel out. You have couples in the statistical group that have sex every day and couples that have sex only on anniversaries. Women ovulate in different patterns, some more often, some less. You don't need to factor in individual ovulation patterns when you are looking at a group: and statistics are always looking only at a group.

My point wasn't disagreeing with the abortion statistics you provided. I am perfectly aware of those. I only wanted to point out that it wasn't completely unbelievable that this couple had a birth control failure. It happens, and it needs to be acknowledged. You annoyed me when you judged a woman you have never met for getting pregnant as if you could know the circumstances surrounding it, and that's why I posted.

That being said, there is a big problem with lack of affordable birth control, education, and general responsibility to use it properly. I agree with you there.

It's not impossible, I concede, but it is improbable. I get annoyed when people consistently use the rape/incest/birth control failure arguments when they account for such a tiny portion of abortions.

"My cousin's roommate's best friend didn't even have sex and she got pregnant, so there!"

 

[Kal'Stang]

First I would just like to thank you for defending my sister in law in a way that I couldn't. I'm not a mathmatical guru. Next I would just like to clairfy a bit....

Sorta? If there is a problem with my math, let me know about it. If you have no corrections or don't even understand the math involved, don't hint that you do. I'm not making predictions here. I'm calculating the failure rates for these birth control methods.

I picked the two most common and easily accessible forms of birth control to use for my example. IUDs are generally used in women who have already had a vaginal birth and require a minor surgical procedure to insert. So not the most universal form of birth control.

IUDs are no more effective than birth control pills taken with perfect use, but since you think my stats were "blown out the window" for some reason, let's do it again:

failure rate of IUD: 1/1000 per year times failure rate of condom 4/100 per year = 4/100,000 or 1/25,000 chance of getting pregnant per year. So suppose a couple has been married 10 years, using a condom all along (yeah, super realistic I know) The odds of getting pregnant during that time are 1/2,500. Like I said, it's unlucky but definitely not unheard of. So it's kind of sad that you hear this story and immediately go into a mindset that it's either a lie, or the woman screwed up somehow.

My sister in law's boyfriend was not using a condom at the time that she was on the IUD. He was at the time that she was on the pill. Two different pregnancies.

 

[kerussll]

First I would just like to thank you for defending my sister in law in a way that I couldn't. I'm not a mathmatical guru. Next I would just like to clairfy a bit....

My sister in law's boyfriend was not using a condom at the time that she was on the IUD. He was at the time that she was on the pill. Two different pregnancies.

Ah, then she is unlucky! You're welcome. I just feel this attitude of snap judgment and wanting to blame someone for an unfortunate situation gets us nowhere.

 

[kerussll]

It's not impossible, I concede, but it is improbable. I get annoyed when people consistently use the rape/incest/birth control failure arguments when they account for such a tiny portion of abortions.

"My cousin's roommate's best friend didn't even have sex and she got pregnant, so there!"

Well so do late term abortions, but that's where a lot of pro-lifers go automatically, because they see them as the most important abortions to stop. Pro-choicers see women who were raped or had their bc fail them as the most important people to stand up for and make sure they have access to abortions.

 

[mac]

Well so do late term abortions, but that's where a lot of pro-lifers go automatically, because they see them as the most important abortions to stop. Pro-choicers see women who were raped or had their bc fail them as the most important people to stand up for and make sure they have access to abortions.

Then you'd be for a law that allowed only medical and abortion/incest abortions?

 

[kerussll]

Then you'd be for a law that allowed only medical and abortion/incest abortions?

No, of course not. Just because I feel those are the most important, doesn't mean I want to exclude the others. Plus, that law would be impossible to enforce. Would you be for only outlawing late term abortions?

 

[Bodi]

Originally Posted by kerussll
Oh, my bad. So you're mad you can't make medical decisions for your family members?

Only one medical decision is in question here, and that is a father having no legal say in the killing of his developing child... a pretty selfish and an absolutely disgusting position that society has arrived at.

 

[kerussll]

Only one medical decision is in question here, and that is a father having no legal say in the killing of his developing child... a pretty selfish and an absolutely disgusting position that society has arrived at.

It's not ideal, but it's much better than the alternative.

 

[Bodi]

It's not ideal, but it's much better than the alternative.

What alternative? Why can't the father have a legal say?

 

[kerussll]

What alternative? Why can't the father have a legal say?

That would be the alternative. He doesn't get a say in her health or medical procedures unless she wants to give him one. I would find a man's ability to force her to remain pregnant much more disgusting than abortion.

 

[Bodi]

That would be the alternative. He doesn't get a say in her health or medical procedures unless she wants to give him one. I would find a man's ability to force her to remain pregnant much more disgusting than abortion.

It isn't just "her" medical procedure. If she wants her tubes tied, or a boob job or a heart transplant, he gets no say. That is not the case though. It is not just her medical procedure. To share rights is somehow to "force" her... It is a shared one between her and the developing baby that gets no rights in order to give her all the rights. That seems truly disgusting, if you want to go down that track. Killing a developing human isn't disgusting, but a father forcing a mother to not kill the developing human is disgusting? How did the world get turned so upside down?

 

[mac]

No, of course not. Just because I feel those are the most important, doesn't mean I want to exclude the others. Plus, that law would be impossible to enforce. Would you be for only outlawing late term abortions?

No, but you've never heard me elevate them above any other abortion.

 

[kerussll]

It isn't just "her" medical procedure. If she wants her tubes tied, or a boob job or a heart transplant, he gets no say. That is not the case though. It is not just her medical procedure. To share rights is somehow to "force" her... It is a shared one between her and the developing baby that gets no rights in order to give her all the rights. That seems truly disgusting, if you want to go down that track. Killing a developing human isn't disgusting, but a father forcing a mother to not kill the developing human is disgusting? How did the world get turned so upside down?

Yeah, it is her medical procedure. The fetus is effected, obviously, but it has no legal rights to her body. The procedure is certainly not her husband's. I do find taking making medical decisions for others against their will disgusting and a dangerous precedent. No question in my mind that is worse than an abortion.

 

[kerussll]

No, but you've never heard me elevate them above any other abortion.

Well, I suppose I assumed that you find late term abortions worse than early ones. That's common sense unless I'm missing something?

 

[mac]

Well, I suppose I assumed that you find late term abortions worse than early ones. That's common sense unless I'm missing something?

You're missing something. Is killing an old person any more or less horrific than killing a young person to you?