(ABC News) Trump has lowest 100-day approval rating in 80 years: POLL (1 Viewer)

[noonereal]

Trump himself is not immune to these pressures. We've seen him fold on some issues

Disagree.

Once he accomplishes his fascist agenda it will not matter.

 

[trumptman]

You may consider the Boomers are largely retired or soon retiring, dependent upon their retirement portfolios, and - as seniors wont - are the highest voting demographic.

By his decimating their retirements, this might not be the group Trump (or his supporters) want to tee-off.

I'm sure Trump will be considering such things during his next run for President.

Baby Boomers No Longer the Majority of Voters

Baby boomers have dominated U.S. politics for decades but their reign may be coming to an end, according to a Pew Research Center analysis released Monday which found that older Americans are no longer the majority of voters in presidential elections.

www.courthousenews.com

Boomers and their voting power have been diminishing for nearly a decade now and as was mentioned in the other thread, younger voters are trending more conservative.

Trump and supporters like me are looking to the future. Democrats, their leadership and many of their voters are looking toward the past.

 

[trumptman]

@SNOWFLAKE you called it. @trumptman posts are so predictable.

I know following reality is pretty predictable.

 

[Chomsky]

That would be a valid point which is why I did not say Republicans, but TRUMP voters.

Uh, correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't this tacitly imply you acknowledge Trump's falling Approval?

 

[phoenix2020]

True. But neither personal insult nor unsupported assertion are going to prevail in debate.

Granted, but we must recognize that the very concept of debate is out of scope for MAGA.

Remember, to properly understand the mindset we need to go all the way back to the era of Newt Gingrich and his forging of a conservative cultural mindset that Republicans cannot book a win unless Democrats simultaneously book a loss e.g. zero sum politics. In this model, there is no room or place for debate, discussion, compromise or bargaining. There is only "we win and you lose". During the formative years of today's MAGA like @trumptman, they were subjected to this mindset again and again, month after month, year after year. Now we've reached the logical end state where MAGA neither recognizes objective reality nor a useful existence within it for anybody who is not part of their tribe.

We need to think of this more like a religion, for example like Christianity but with Jesus replaced by Donald, the Bible replaced by Trump's Truth Social account, and Satan is now "everybody who is not MAGA." And when debating a Christian as a non-Christian, what is the first thing they are taught? That's right, that any words contrary to their beliefs are the influence of Satan, coming from a place of Evil, and simply to be ignored. If you tell @trumptman that there is a thunderstorm coming and Donald says otherwise, from his perspective you are under the influence of Satan and trying to trick him, so no amount of meteorological data that you share with him is going to overcome the simple fact that from his perspective, you are either a direct agent of evil, or have been manipulated to serve evil, and in either case you must be ignored, refuted, rejected or worse.

So getting back to poll numbers and approval ratings, no number or amount of polls will convince @trumptman that Donald is anything but deeply popular and beloved by the vast majority of people, because Jesus Donald said in the Bible posted on Truth Social that his approval numbers are north of 70% and anybody who claims otherwise is doing Satan's work a corrupt Democrat.

Given all this, I'm simply not sure how effective any rational person can be at engaging in "debate" with a person whose religion dictates all aspects of their reality.

 

[trumptman]

As I earlier stated, all polls are showing the same - by a huge margin.

If your anecdotal evidence of your immediate crowd indicates otherwise, you're sampling a minority that's out of sync with the greater country.

So at the 100 day mark what does Presidential approval measure in terms of outcomes for governance and reality?

We've seen the reruns on this show too many times.

The media goes into a feeding frenzy on a matter. Their polling on it shows "concern" among a block of voters or perhaps less support and then... well nothing.

Do you think these sorts of lies about due process and claiming Americans are being deported for example will still survive proper scrutiny and not be refuted or ignored by the midterms?

The media have their talking point for their narrative but people will vote their priorities and their wallet. They won't be voting for a media narrative.

 

[trumptman]

Uh, correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't this tacitly imply you acknowledge Trump's falling Approval?

Not at all. Trump's support is not just Republican. It is a broad and growing coalition.

Also in 18 months when you aren't paying $2100 for your iPhone people will not be voting based on these media narratives.

 

[Chomsky]

Why does RCP list this ABC poll as being 55-42 disapproval when it’s actually 55-39?

Interesting error, and good catch.

So it seems RCP has slightly decreased the polls negative effect upon their aggregate average?

This is why I'm not such a fan of aggregate polling averages.

 

[trumptman]

Because you are in a likeminded cult

The people repeating the dogmatic phrases from the idiot box are in the cult.

"Slava Ukraine......"

"Due Process....."

 

[trumptman]

And this is why Trump polling is so abysmal. The screw them attitude that the Fanboys love to see.

Not screw everyone, just screw the Boomers in particular who believe they still hold all the power because demographically, they did for so long.

The Boomer Boogieman is dead both literally and figuratively.

 

[Perotista]

I get the bolded, and I respect that.

The problem of course is the moving averages lag the current situation on the ground.

I'm fine using several contemporaneous like data-sets to indicate a potential trend, as I believe I've seen during the past week.

When I see multiple recent polls showing like same-poll movement, I give it reasonable credibility.

But you are right in that doing that means I'm reacting to shorter movements. But hey! What can I say? I like to do early "spots" on the leading edge!

Understand. Now if one just takes the most recent polls, disregarding those who ended prior to 23 Apr, Ending 23 Apr Quantus Insights 48% approval, 24 Apr RMG Research* 49% approval, Rasmussen Reports 47% approval, NY Times/Siena 42%, ending 25 Apr CBS News 45% approval. RCP hasn’t as yet include your ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST/IPSOS POLL dated 27 Apr. But the average for those 5 polls from 23 Apr-25 Apr is 46.2%. Including your ABC poll of 39% lowers the average to 45%. No poll taken within the last week, 10 polls has been that low, the lowest is at 42%.

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1241a3100Days.pdf

That aside, further research shows the ABC poll has an MOE of plus or minus 2 point which the 39% means Trump’s approval is somewhere between 37% and 41% which makes more sense when viewing the poll as a stand-alone poll. 2,464 adults were surveyed with a partisan division are 30-30-29 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents. All good. But ABC poll was all adults whereas most of RCP polls were of registered voters. All adults are good if one wants to know how all Americans are viewing Trump, registered voters are much better and more accurate when it comes to elections with likely voters being the best.

Too much nit picking, probably so, but you got me interested in the ABC poll. Whether RCP averages or the ABC poll, Trump is on a downward trend. He’s been on that downward trend since 1 FEB, a slow but steady downward trend. It seems the ABC poll just confirms that trend is continuing. Glad to have you around, you keep my brain matter a churning. The next question is how low can Trump go?

 

[Chomsky]

So at the 100 day mark what does Presidential approval measure in terms of outcomes for governance and reality?

Sentiments expressed in this data moves us further along the line of applying political pressure to effect a change.

We've seen Trump fold in the past to populace uproar.

We've seen the reruns on this show too many times.

The media goes into a feeding frenzy on a matter. Their polling on it shows "concern" among a block of voters or perhaps less support and then... well nothing.

Why are you straw-manning "the media", attempting to diminish the desires of the America People.

This data isn't "the media". It's your fellow Americans speaking.

Do you think these sorts of lies about due process and claiming Americans are being deported for example will still survive proper scrutiny and not be refuted or ignored by the midterms?

Geezus. You've got to quit making assertions without cites. There seems to be several of these in every one of your posts.

The media have their talking point for their narrative but people will vote their priorities and their wallet. They won't be voting for a media narrative.

Quit straw-manning and promoting red herrings. Americans were polled.

 

[AJG]

That would be a valid point which is why I did not say Republicans, but TRUMP voters.

Are most of the people you know who continue to support Trump also Republicans? Also keep in mind the point I'm trying to make isn't specifically an issue with Republicans. I live in an area that overwhelmingly voted against Trump. I know very few people that have supported him at any point in his second term, and even fewer that would admit to it. A large number of Americans including myself and many people on this board live in echo chambers with no one close to them to challenge their beliefs. Sometimes when I'm arguing with people on this forum I think to myself "Are these people for real? Do they actually believe this stuff or are they just trolls?" I've come to accept that yes, they are real and that these polls although flawed and somewhat hard to accept, show a much clearer picture of reality than I could hope to see if I never to understand what people think outside of my very limited physical sphere.

 

[Bullseye]

Trump has lowest 100-day approval rating in 80 years: POLL

Donald Trump has the lowest 100-day job approval rating of any president in the past 80 years, according to an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll.

abcnews.go.com

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ABC News released the President's most recent "Approval Poll", from early this morning.

I placed quotes around the term "Approval" above, as it's apparent Trump's recent polls contain nothing about Approval, but rather they report homogenous & consistent "Disapproval" in virtually every metric & category of Trump's administrations.

I think it may be fair to say the data and it's historical nature speaks for itself far better than any words I may further pen.

Wa poo! What a surprise.

 

[Chomsky]

Not at all. Trump's support is not just Republican. It is a broad and growing coalition.

Also in 18 months when you aren't paying $2100 for your iPhone people will not be voting based on these media narratives.

You seemed to be admitting Republican & Democratic Approval & Disapproval have remained constant, while Indie Disapproval has been increasing

Given that, I'm not sure what else can be concluded?

 

[Chomsky]

Disagree.

Once he accomplishes his fascist agenda it will not matter.

Possible. But not guaranteed.

My point is there is a point where political pressure will effectuate change, even if only on specific items.

Like you, neither of us knows exactly where these points will be. But that's not to say you may not be right. I don't think so. But anything's possible.

 

[ncguy]

No one with a brain believe in ABC push polls.

They are so broke they laid off all their employees at 538.com.

Look at the other polls

 

[trumptman]

Are most of the people you know who continue to support Trump also Republicans?

Well I live in an area that is a Republican minority and where Democrat voices will literally overwhelm them.

Also keep in mind the point I'm trying to make isn't specifically an issue with Republicans. I live in an area that overwhelmingly voted against Trump. I know very few people that have supported him at any point in his second term, and even fewer that would admit to it. A large number of Americans including myself and many people on this board live in echo chambers with no one close to them to challenge their beliefs. Sometimes when I'm arguing with people on this forum I think to myself "Are these people for real? Do they actually believe this stuff or are they just trolls?" I've come to accept that yes, they are real and that these polls although flawed and somewhat hard to accept, show a much clearer picture of reality than I could hope to see if I never to understand what people think outside of my very limited physical sphere.

I feel you but I will also often note... compared to what....

So let's imagine for a moment I'm not currently approving of something Trump is doing. Just approving or disapproving doesn't mean anything. It has to translate into something actionable.

So let's imagine the next midterms are rolling up and let's imagine again I still have disapproval in that area. I'm going to weigh that disapproval against other candidates, their positions and the action they will take.

So let's take a popular one from here. Let's go with Trump's border enforcement is too aggressive and has issues with due process.

So now some of the stories are pretty big with headlines. Let's presume I believe all of them. I'll believe Trump deported a two year old, sent notices to an immigration attorney and deported Maryland man for no good reason. Let's take that as a baseline.

So now I have to weigh what the altenative is that myself or someone who disapproves will vote for in 2026.

Do Democrats have a better immigration plan? Do they have a history of performing better here even if they get a better plan?
Do Democrats suddenly have plans properly addressing homelessness, crime and lack of disaster relief?

Will their plans be so much better and the promises to perform on them feel authentic enough that voters will give them their votes?

If they don't offer a proper alternative than disapproval can just be concern, especially when the media is 100% negative on Trump.

Either way Trump is doing what he said he would do and I don't see Democrats saying that they will do something different just that he is bad and wrong for doing what he is doing.

Voters will want more than disapproval. They will want alternatives.

 

[Chomsky]

I'm sure Trump will be considering such things during his next run for President.

Baby Boomers No Longer the Majority of Voters

Baby boomers have dominated U.S. politics for decades but their reign may be coming to an end, according to a Pew Research Center analysis released Monday which found that older Americans are no longer the majority of voters in presidential elections.

www.courthousenews.com

This isn't simply about the next Presidential election, or even the Midterm.

It's about applying political pressure now.

Trump has occasionally folded under political backlash. So, well see.

Boomers and their voting power have been diminishing for nearly a decade now and as was mentioned in the other thread, younger voters are trending more conservative.

Trump and supporters like me are looking to the future. Democrats, their leadership and many of their voters are looking toward the past.

"Under 51" is a pretty wide demo to lump together as "younger".

But the Boomers' 35% share is still substantial and enough to effect an election. In addition, 62% of Americans own equities. Not all are Boomers.

Source:



--

BTW - I agree Dems have got to start offering solutions & change.

(I'm an Indie FWIW, but have voted Dem of late in response to Trump)

 

[SCrider]

The people repeating the dogmatic phrases from the idiot box are in the cult.

"Slava Ukraine......"

"Due Process....."

You think Due Process is dogmatic?
Why do you hate this country?

 

[iliveonramen]

How about we stop watching talking heads on idiot boxes and just go experience the world and talk to people.

If you don't notice people around you changing their minds, then why would a poll claiming they did change that reality?

I do not know a single Trump voter who is unhappy with his governing and not one has changed their mind.

There are people around me that have changed their mind. They are typically the higher income, educated Trump voter that identified as Republican, not a Trump voter. They're done with him. They defended him a bit but his antics are so obnoxious that they've 100% flipped their thinking on him.

Then there's people I know that treat Trump as if he's a semi-religious figure. Evangelicals that seem to treat Trump like he's some sort of prophet or something. They have doubled down.

I don't know any of the non-evangelical MAGA so they aren't exactly the type I could speak on.

 

[trumptman]

"Carry the day" - i.e. "present a winning argument".




False.

The election poll results were predominately within their margins of error.

The current polls on the other hand, are displaying totally lopsided data nowhere near their MOE.

2024 National: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

2024 National: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

www.realclearpolling.com

The polls showed Harris winning by .1 when Trump won by 1.5%

But, and you can see this on here, I've noted how pollster ranking sites and services tend to grade the polls within two weeks of the election and smart people like myself who analyze these trends can see how the push polls suddenly revert to something akin to a real result.

When you go back to where all the same pollsters were just OUTSIDE of that grading window they showed Harris winning by 2.0%.

Can you think of any events that made Harris lose 3.5% support in the second half of October? I can't so it's got to be the polls screwing around.

This trend has been going on for a long time. You can go back to 2016 and watch Trump "gain" support in the midst of "grab'em by the *****".

He wasn't gaining support. They weren't measuring his support.

 

[trumptman]

You think Due Process is dogmatic?
Why do you hate this country?

Due process is not a real Democrat concern. It's their talking point this week.

 

[Plasmaball]

I don't care till the people are marching on the white house to protest his removal and the gop get so scared they impeach him out. Till then this is meaningless

 

[Chomsky]

Granted, but we must recognize that the very concept of debate is out of scope for MAGA.

Remember, to properly understand the mindset we need to go all the way back to the era of Newt Gingrich and his forging of a conservative cultural mindset that Republicans cannot book a win unless Democrats simultaneously book a loss e.g. zero sum politics. In this model, there is no room or place for debate, discussion, compromise or bargaining. There is only "we win and you lose". During the formative years of today's MAGA like @trumptman, they were subjected to this mindset again and again, month after month, year after year. Now we've reached the logical end state where MAGA neither recognizes objective reality nor a useful existence within it for anybody who is not part of their tribe.

We need to think of this more like a religion, for example like Christianity but with Jesus replaced by Donald, the Bible replaced by Trump's Truth Social account, and Satan is now "everybody who is not MAGA." And when debating a Christian as a non-Christian, what is the first thing they are taught? That's right, that any words contrary to their beliefs are the influence of Satan, coming from a place of Evil, and simply to be ignored. If you tell @trumptman that there is a thunderstorm coming and Donald says otherwise, from his perspective you are under the influence of Satan and trying to trick him, so no amount of meteorological data that you share with him is going to overcome the simple fact that from his perspective, you are either a direct agent of evil, or have been manipulated to serve evil, and in either case you must be ignored, refuted, rejected or worse.

So getting back to poll numbers and approval ratings, no number or amount of polls will convince @trumptman that Donald is anything but deeply popular and beloved by the vast majority of people, because Jesus Donald said in the Bible posted on Truth Social that his approval numbers are north of 70% and anybody who claims otherwise is doing Satan's work a corrupt Democrat.

Given all this, I'm simply not sure how effective any rational person can be at engaging in "debate" with a person whose religion dictates all aspects of their reality.

All of what you say is true, and I very much agree.

However we - as individual DP posters - are a small subset of society posting on Debate Politics, a debate forum with the defining & guiding mantra "Civility is a must".

I act here in accordance with that (civil debate), and generally avoid those that don't.