A new study suggests 3 feet, not 6 feet, is sufficient distance for school students, with mask-wearing and other safety measures kept in place.

[ecofarm]

Ummm.... statistical significance is based upon a p value, which is framed by confidence intervals.

Different p-values have the same definition of "statistically insignificant". It's less than 5% between observations.

Statistically insignificant difference =/= no difference.

 

[Threegoofs]

Different p-values have the same definition of "statistically insignificant". It's less than 5% between observations.

No. Just no.

Seriously, do a stats refresher.

A Refresher on Statistical Significance

It’s too often misused and misunderstood.

hbr.org

 

[ecofarm]

No. Just no.

Seriously, do a stats refresher.

A Refresher on Statistical Significance

It’s too often misused and misunderstood.

hbr.org

Statistically insignificant difference does not mean "no difference". What more can I tell you.

If the study concluded there was no difference, it would claim so.

 

[Ethel2]

Confidence interval and p-values don't matter. Statistically insignificant always means less than a 5% difference between observations.

Told you I wasn’t a statistician.
I looked it up.
Lets assume that there is a 5% chance that the conclusions from the study were incorrect and that there were a few additional cases by moving kids 3 feet closer. We are then down to discussing whether its worth it or not to take the 5% risk that the conclusions from the study were incorrect. For me, knowing that kids generally handle Covid much better than adults, and assuming that by now nearly all people at high risk for serious disease have had the opportunity to be vaccinated, then its a small risk well worth taking given the rewards of classroom learning. We can’t wait until the risk is zero.

 

[ecofarm]

Told you I wasn’t a statistician.
I looked it up.
Lets assume that there is a 5% chance that the conclusions from the study were incorrect and that there were a few additional cases by moving kids 3 feet closer. We are then down to discussing whether its worth it or not to take the 5% risk that the conclusions from the study were incorrect. For me, knowing that kids generally handle Covid much better than adults, and assuming that by now nearly all people at high risk for serious disease have had the opportunity to be vaccinated, then its a small risk well worth taking given the rewards of classroom learning. We can’t wait until the risk is zero.

Not what I'm saying. I'm saying there was a less than 5% difference between observations but there was a difference and that difference could be actually significant depending on the context.

If we want to be frank about it, it depends on that number. Are we talking 1000 more infections? 1 million? I want the difference. Telling me "it's the same" is unconvincing. Let's see the numbers and let's extrapolate.

 

[Ethel2]

Not what I'm saying. I'm saying there was a less than 5% difference between observations but there was a difference and that difference could be actually significant depending on the context.

Thats not what the study concluded.

 

[ecofarm]

Thats not what the study concluded.

Did the study conclude the difference was statistically insignificant or not? Did it conclude anything?

This is simple. Let's say the status quo is 10% (to draw a random number). If 3 feet is 11%, then what's one more percent among that population. What happens when that 1 more percent goes home and spreads from home to the community.

Telling me "there's no difference between 6 and 3 feet, none" is unconvincing, especially from a single study. Especially when that single study surely found some difference.

 

[Ethel2]

Did the study conclude the difference was statistically insignificant or not? Did it conclude anything?

This is simple. Let's say the status quo is 10% (to draw a random number). If 3 feet is 11%, then what's one more percent among that population. What happens when that 1 more percent goes home and spreads from home to the community.

Telling me "there's no difference between 6 and 3 feet, none" is unconvincing, especially from a single study. Especially when that single study surely found some difference.

It might be 1%; it might be 2% or 0%. You are guessing.
Regardless, do you think that we should wait until the risk is zero? If not zero then how many additional cases (%) would be tolerable?

 

[ecofarm]

It might be 1%; it might be 2% or 0%. You are guessing.
Regardless, do you think that we should wait until the risk is zero? If not zero then how many additional cases (%) would be tolerable?

Now we're getting to the discussion. Presuming there is a difference between 6 and 3 feet, and why wouldn't there be, then we need to look at the impact. We need the rates of infection and then we need to extrapolate those to additional infections in families and their contacts.

We can't live in a fantasy world where a single study eliminates the laws of physics and distance no longer matters in the spread of disease. We need to face the numbers.

It's not the same. We know that. Gravity exists. Arm reach is real. For many reasons, it's absurd to believe the result is exactly the same.

 

[Ethel2]

Now we're getting to the discussion. Presuming there is a difference between 6 and 3 feet, and why wouldn't there be, then we need to look at the impact. We need the rates of infection and then we need to extrapolate those to additional infections in families and their contacts.

We can't live in a fantasy world where a single study eliminates the laws of physics and distance no longer matters in the spread of disease. We need to face the numbers.

It's not the same. We know that. Gravity exists.

I don’t think the extra three feet is going to matter much if at all. The study seems to bear that out.
You didn’t answer the question: by percentage how many additional infections would you be willing to tolerate in exchange for the benefits of in person learning? The study would seem to indicate that its not much of an increase if there is any at all.

 

[ecofarm]

I don’t think the extra three feet is going to matter much if at all. The study seems to bear that out.
You didn’t answer the question: by percentage how many additional infections would you be willing to tolerate in exchange for the benefits of in person learning? The study would seem to indicate that its not much of an increase if there is any at all.

I'm not sure. Am I obligated? I just want the numbers. How many more infections? None? To that I would and do say 'bs'.

 

[Ethel2]

I'm not sure. Am I obligated? I just want the numbers. How many more infections? None? To that I would and do say 'bs'.

None
You want to wait until the risk is zero then. Fair enough. You would wait years for that to happen. Covid will be around for a long time.

 

[Threegoofs]

Not what I'm saying. I'm saying there was a less than 5% difference between observations but there was a difference and that difference could be actually significant depending on the context.

If we want to be frank about it, it depends on that number. Are we talking 1000 more infections? 1 million? I want the difference. Telling me "it's the same" is unconvincing. Let's see the numbers and let's extrapolate.

Why do people do statistical tests?

 

[ecofarm]

None
You want to wait until the risk is zero then. Fair enough. You would wait years for that to happen. Covid will be around for a long time.

I don't expect the increased risk to be zero. I might agree with some increased risk for the benefits of proper schooling for more children. I see the plus and minus and, for me, this is ethics. It's a decision I'm not willing to make blindly. I want the numbers. And, again, it's not the same.

There is no way that an infected child, on average, infects the same number of people under the different conditions. There are too many variables that become more prevalent as distance decreases. From droplets to arm length to other factors, there must be a difference.

Full disclosure, I'm a risk taker. I say take the risk, but don't take it blindly. Don't be one of those people that are "nothing bad can happen to me, I've nothing to worry about". That's stupid and pisses me off. Instead, be real. Accept one's risks, know what they are, and take them. Life is about taking risks, just don't do it blindly.

Same here. I might take some risk, but I'm not gonna do it blindly. Believing one study proves there is no difference between 6 and 3 feet as policy between children is foolish.

 

[Ginger Ale]

Not really. Your health records are no one else's business.

No really, an employer can and some of my friends will be doing this with their businesses. I'm offering a cash bonus, so I'm thinking my employees will get it.

I'm thinking you're not getting it a vaccine.

 

[Ginger Ale]

Supreme Court here we come.

I have a feeling you aren't going to be able to rely on them for this, but we'll see.

And your website, I'm thinking it will be entertaining.

 

[Ethel2]

I don't expect the increased risk to be zero. I might agree with some increased risk for the benefits of proper schooling for more children. I see the plus and minus and, for me, this is ethics. It's a decision I'm not willing to make blindly. I want the numbers. And, again, it's not the same.

There is no way that an infected child, on average, infects the same number of people under the different conditions. There are too many variables that become more prevalent as distance decreases. From droplets to arm length to other factors, there must be a difference.

Full disclosure, I'm a risk taker. I say take the risk, but don't take it blindly. Don't be one of those people that are "nothing bad can happen to me, I've nothing to worry about". That's stupid and pisses me off. Instead, be real. Accept one's risks, know what they are, and take them. Life is about taking risks, just don't do it blindly.

Same here. I might take some risk, but I'm not gonna do it blindly. Believing one study proves there is no difference between 6 and 3 feet as policy between children is foolish.

Agreed
This study needs to be repeated.
Until then I want decent schooling for our kids as safely as possible.

 

[Ginger Ale]

Gee, it's been awhile and no post with a quote from somewhere showing I'm wrong. So surprised.

I'll post one saying you're correct.

 

[Ginger Ale]

I don’t see the term “5%” used anywhere. Seems to me that the larger the sample size the lower your “5%” becomes. Since they never mentioned 5% neither you nor I know the real increase in risk (adding three less feet between students) might present.

We will know for sure in a month or so after schools open. I can bet money that the spread and illness will be higher than that study.

 

[Josie]

No really, an employer can and some of my friends will be doing this with their businesses. I'm offering a cash bonus, so I'm thinking my employees will get it.

We were talking about schools. Parents can't find that information out nor do I think any teachers union would go for the district requiring it.

I'm thinking you're not getting it a vaccine.

What?

 

[Josie]

We will know for sure in a month or so after schools open. I can bet money that the spread and illness will be higher than that study.

Pretty sure most schools in the US have been in-person learning for awhile now.

 

[Paradoxical]

I have a feeling you aren't going to be able to rely on them for this, but we'll see.

And your website, I'm thinking it will be entertaining.

People don't realize the amount of work and study involved in building a website yourself. It's like learning a new language. It will be entertaining and not allowed on Orwellian sites like FB and Twitter and Yahoo and other venues that claim the right to be the arbiters of "truth", with "truth" being what those like Cuomo, Joy Reid, Brina Stelter, and Mika saying it is.

 

[Ginger Ale]

We were talking about schools. Parents can't find that information out nor do I think any teachers union would go for the district requiring it.



What?

States can require people to get vaccinated, per a 1905 Supreme Court ruling, Jacobson v. Commonwealth of Massachusetts. If they don’t school districts can make that decision.

I'm pretty sure it will be added to the kids vaccine schedule as well.

Some kids have been in school but a lot of parents are still keeping their kids home and some are still on half schedule. They don't think it's safe yet. Cases are currently rising again but time will tell us more.

I wouldn't expect someone getting the vaccine to be so concerned with parents knowing they did. I would think they'd share the info to comfort parents actually. So I assumed you were not getting it.

 

[Ginger Ale]

People don't realize the amount of work and study involved in building a website yourself. It's like learning a new language. It will be entertaining and not allowed on Orwellian sites like FB and Twitter and Yahoo and other venues that claim the right to be the arbiters of "truth", with "truth" being what those like Cuomo, Joy Reid, Brina Stelter, and Mika saying it is.

Well good luck getting traffic to it.

 

[Paradoxical]

Well good luck getting traffic to it.

There is no such thing as luck. There is only knowledge and hard work and perseverance. I am well aware of getting traffic to a site and the competition out there. This is why building a site isn't easy. You can have a great site (which mine will be) but if no one knows about it, all you have is a great site that no one knows about. There is software and other methods to attract traffic. Things such as proper use of keywords. Mine will be so good that word of mouth will get me the most traffic.