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A New American Grand Strategy

Huh? We followed events in Egypt. Mubarak was ahead of us, of all people. We managed to screw over every possible ally in that country that we had or could have had. We had all the political courage of someone endorsing Obama for president in December of 2008.

We still have allies in Egypt, mostly in the military mind you (thanks in large part to many of the Egyptian Generals having working with the US in the past and several billion in military aid helps as well). And when Obama finally said that Mubarak had to go, low and behold he was gone.

On the contrary, the protesters started chanting "Obama you are with us or you are with them" as they were being dragged by the basij into the black vans, and in response the Obama administration released a statement calling for restraint by all sides.

In the beginning that was true. But once the violence became more apparent, he did condemn it. Short of invading the country, what more did you want Fact Check: Was Obama 'silent' on Iran 2009 protests? - CNN.com

Our programs to "aid" the rebels? Yeah. If we wanted to kill Assad, we could. This is like trying to destroy Burger King by ordering a frosty at Wendy's.

I never said he did a great job or trying to remove him, only that he did want him gone.

And Tunisia, which has not only rejected the more Islamic-leading party, but also effectively hunted the Islamist groups within its' borders while holding free public elections.

Coincidentally, the one country on this list where we haven't been involved with much. Interesting don't you think?


:shrug: I know when we finished the Surge out, Iraq was a stable, place with a pluralistic government. Then we decided to follow the same "hands-off" policy that you identified we tried in Libya. We chose..... poorly.....

....sort of... it's pointing out that any system which artificially tamps down on volatility actually creates net increased volatility that releases explosively rather than bleeds off sustainably. It really is a fun piece, I think you might like it.

If you think so, then you are confusing my intent.

Well, of those nations, Egypt is a military authoritarian regime currently involved in hunting down Islamists, both of the MB and ISIL variety. Syria (the government) remains run by Assad while Syria (the territory) is in a civil war over the issue. Yemen isn't run by Islamists of either camps, but rather by Tribal militia's in the north who receive support from Iran, and (it seems) a mixture of local military leadership, maybe President Hadi, and tribal militia's in the south who receive support from Saudi Arabia. Iraq (the government) remains the only functioning Arab democracy in the middle east, despite massive assault from it's north. Iraq (the territory) is in the same boat as Syria, and the Palestinians were basically weaponized by the Arab regimes that you are claiming provide "stability" decades ago in order to ensure that they would always support groups like Hamas.

If you want to keep the radicals a problem, keep the dictators in power. So long as radicalization and violence is the only means for political volatility to express itself, that is what you will continue to get.

Let me sum all this up, and feel free to tell me where I'm wrong, but you are suggesting that we follow the Iraq Plan as it was a success and invade what? Ten countries to establish secular governments in each one? So there's another 20 trillion down the hole and 45,000 Americans dead. And then you want us to keep a force of 20,000 (last I checked that was the proposed SOFA) in each of those countries... so a residual force of 200,000 would be necessary then correct? Call me crazy, but I don't see us going your route and the numbers game working out in our favor....

Look I'm not saying that installing dictators in power will last forever, but right not it's the best option we've got. Hell, you even pointed out that once the Military took over in Egypt, they're now apart of war effort against ISIS. I doubt we could of counted on such help from the MB.
 
1. He is General James Mattis, and you will hold your tongue when you speak of him. If he wants to fix the middle east by killing every single Islamic terrorist in it, that's his prerogative.

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2. That is all.

Here is the superior guy keeping him on a tight leash.

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That is all.
 
:lol: surely you're not meaning to imply WMD employment against NKorea.

Seoul would not be defended, and I said the entire inventory.

Hey Jack, if we start using our big toys, what's to stop NK from expanding the war and attempting to Nuke one of our bases in Japan, missing of course, but end up killing a few hundred thousand when it hits a large city?
 
Seoul would be abandoned immediately and South Korean casualties would be enormous, but US and South Korean response would be quick. Naval assets would be in play, as would the entire US weapons inventory.

Well at least your honest about that...

No. There are only a few circumstances under which our deadliest capabilities can be justified.

Incidentally what would you nuke in the area? I assume you'd try a large strike to knockout their artillery pieces but wouldn't also eliminate the defensive barrier protecting the South from a ground invasion in the process?
 
Hey Jack, if we start using our big toys, what's to stop NK from expanding the war and attempting to Nuke one of our bases in Japan, missing of course, but end up killing a few hundred thousand when it hits a large city?

We will have between 30 and 40K military personnel in play from the outset, not counting tens of thousands of civilians and tens of millions of South Koreans. A North Korean invasion of the South would already be an expanded war with hundreds of thousands of dead in the first hour. Nothing would be out of bounds.
 
No. There are only a few circumstances under which our deadliest capabilities can be justified.

Then only those deserve the use of our military. Playing world policeman is not a viable military mission.
 
We will have between 30 and 40K military personnel in play from the outset, not counting tens of thousands of civilians and tens of millions of South Koreans. A North Korean invasion of the South would already be an expanded war with hundreds of thousands of dead in the first hour. Nothing would be out of bounds.

Am I the only one deeply disturbed by the fact that you're right? I mean, I guess I always envisioned a more limited conflict but I suppose that is naive.

Regardless though, my original point with bringing up the Korean Peninsula is that despite all the money we are spending, far more so than the next several countries combined, we would be just as unable to prevent the slaughter of so many people as if we were spending half as much as we do now.

It has been our mission. The price of primacy.

The issue at hand though is that we can no longer afford to remain the top dog, not and continue to support as large military as we do... not on our own anyways. This is why real alliances (and not the papers ones like NATO has become) are so important in the future and why it's unrealistic for us to continue to challenge regional powers such as Iran, China, and Russia all at the same time.
 
Am I the only one deeply disturbed by the fact that you're right? I mean, I guess I always envisioned a more limited conflict but I suppose that is naive.

Regardless though, my original point with bringing up the Korean Peninsula is that despite all the money we are spending, far more so than the next several countries combined, we would be just as unable to prevent the slaughter of so many people as if we were spending half as much as we do now.



The issue at hand though is that we can no longer afford to remain the top dog, not and continue to support as large military as we do... not on our own anyways. This is why real alliances (and not the papers ones like NATO has become) are so important in the future and why it's unrealistic for us to continue to challenge regional powers such as Iran, China, and Russia all at the same time.

"Men are not hanged for stealing horses, but that horses may not be stolen." – George Savile

We spend the money and deploy the forces to deter the North Koreans (among others). I agree that our regional partners need to step up in their own defense.
 
"Men are not hanged for stealing horses, but that horses may not be stolen." – George Savile

We spend the money and deploy the forces to deter the North Koreans (among others). I agree that our regional partners need to step up in their own defense.

How much have we really deterred the North Koreans though? And I ask that with genuine curiosity because on one hand they've committed several provocative actions in the recent past including killing numerous SK citizens on that island and the ship that was attacked. But on the other hand, they often threaten all kinds of nasty stuff (especially when war games come around) but rarely follow through. I'm amazed the South Koreans have shown as much restraint in this matter to be honest. I doubt if Mexico were to sink a ship in the Gulf of Mexico, or bomb a small town in Texas, we'd be quite as understanding...
 
How much have we really deterred the North Koreans though? And I ask that with genuine curiosity because on one hand they've committed several provocative actions in the recent past including killing numerous SK citizens on that island and the ship that was attacked. But on the other hand, they often threaten all kinds of nasty stuff (especially when war games come around) but rarely follow through. I'm amazed the South Koreans have shown as much restraint in this matter to be honest. I doubt if Mexico were to sink a ship in the Gulf of Mexico, or bomb a small town in Texas, we'd be quite as understanding...

We have a long tradition of firm dealings with Mexico. Half of what used to be Mexico, after all, is now part of the US. As for NK, we have deterred them from invading the South, again.
 
We still have allies in Egypt, mostly in the military mind you (thanks in large part to many of the Egyptian Generals having working with the US in the past and several billion in military aid helps as well). And when Obama finally said that Mubarak had to go, low and behold he was gone.

No we don't. When el Sisi decided he was going to retire to run for President, he didn't call us to get our agreement, he flew to Russia to get Putin's blessing. Egypt's military is also trying to take seriously an ISIL threat in Libya by partnering with General Haftar, who has had the nerve to kill both ISIL and local AQ affiliates. Our response has been to try to sanction Haftar. We are currently not enemies with the Egypitan military, but we are not allies. When I say we managed to convince every side in Egypt that we opposed them, I meant every side.

In the beginning that was true. But once the violence became more apparent, he did condemn it. Short of invading the country, what more did you want Fact Check: Was Obama 'silent' on Iran 2009 protests? - CNN.com

:doh your source is confirming what I said. Obama's response wasn't to condemn the government or give support to the protestors, it was to explicitly refuse to do the latter and , it was to say gosh we are appalled at the violence.... and then we continued trying to negotiate with them. We gave precisely zero ****s about freedom in Iran.

I never said he did a great job or trying to remove him, only that he did want him gone.

Sure, and I'd like to have a resting six pack and a doctorate in philosophy. I'm just not doing anything about it.

Coincidentally, the one country on this list where we haven't been involved with much. Interesting don't you think?

:shrug: Tunisia had the most western of the populaces, and yes, it turned out well. Take a look at the other countries where we chose to exercise "strategic restraint" or "lead from behind". How's it going in the rest of the region?

Let me sum all this up, and feel free to tell me where I'm wrong, but you are suggesting that we follow the Iraq Plan as it was a success and invade what? Ten countries to establish secular governments in each one?

Nope. Iraq was a success, and a necessary one, that we basically then did our best to throw away (and the jury is still out on that one) because the President wanted an applause line for the 2012 reelection campaign. That doesn't make it a cookie cutter solution - interestingly, if you treat cuts before they become infected, you very rarely have to amputate the limb and replace it with a mechanical.

And then you want us to keep a force of 20,000 (last I checked that was the proposed SOFA) in each of those countries...

:lol: hah. I wish. The Administration came in at the last minute and undercut the Iraqi's by putting in a cap at 5,000. The White House basically sabatoged its own negotiations.

Look I'm not saying that installing dictators in power will last forever, but right not it's the best option we've got.

No it's not. Sacrificing the future to have an easier life today is not the best option we've got. Not with regards to debt, and not with regards to the false "security" and "stability" that dictators provide. Abusive dictatorships are what make these movements popular. All installing dictators in power will do is ensure that our children and their children will have to deal with this same problem because we weren't willing to deal with it now.

Hell, you even pointed out that once the Military took over in Egypt, they're now apart of war effort against ISIS. I doubt we could of counted on such help from the MB.

No, we couldn't have. But since the military took over Egypt and started an effort against the Muslim Brotherhod, ISIL has taken over large sections of the Sinai, and the Muslim Brotherhood has announced that they will overturn decades of precedent and go back to violent Jihad. So the problem persisted, and metastasized.

Whereas, when the MB was attempting to govern in a representative structure... you know what happened?

They became dramatically less popular.
 
Hey Jack, if we start using our big toys, what's to stop NK from expanding the war and attempting to Nuke one of our bases in Japan, missing of course, but end up killing a few hundred thousand when it hits a large city?

At current, the fact that it the missile would disintegrate in mid air and the likelihood that they haven't miniaturized enough.
 
Defense spending calculations are deceptive. Our personnel are way more expensive than China's, for example.

Well yea. We do not pay our soldiers less then $50 a month and expect them to operate with largely Korean War era equipment.
 
I didn't mean to imply that Obama did a good job being the advocate for more freedom, merely pointing out the propensity for the US to side with those opposing these various dictatorships and/or Islamic Republics (that's what I'd call the Hamas Government and the brief Egyptian one).

The problem is not that a government may or may not be a dictatorship, but that it might be a viscious dictatorship that can earn our ire.

Just being a dictatorship does not make a country "evil". General Franco and Marshal Tito were both Dictatorships, but neither was known as being brutal for the sake of being brutal. And the same with a great many other dictatorships and monarchies, from Iran and Taiwan to a great many others. Only when they became brutal did the US ever really care about their actual form of government.

Libya for decades was bouncing back and forth between trying to compromise with it's citizens, then turning around and acting brutally towards them. Egypt under Mubarak was actually rather stable and peaceful as most Dictatorships go, and I blame most of the current issues on those trying to "spread democracy" and forcing an immediate change to a "Democracy" (which in that region means "anarchy") instead of a gradual transition to a new government.
 
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