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538 - Trump May Start Dragging GOP Senate Candidates Down With Him

cpwill

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Hooray.

Republicans in most Senate battlegrounds are running ahead of Trump in their states. That may last, increasing the chances that the GOP hangs on to their Senate majority. But it’s also possible that Trump begins to drag down his party’s down-ballot candidates.

Right now, Republicans hold 54 Senate seats to the Democrats’ 46. In order to take control of the Senate, Democrats need to pick up four seats if Clinton wins the presidency and five if she doesn’t.[SUP]1[/SUP] Of the 34 Senate seats up for grabs in 2016, here are the 10 that are closest to changing parties, according to the current polling averages: Arizona,[SUP]2[/SUP] Florida,[SUP]3[/SUP] Illinois,[SUP]4[/SUP] Missouri, Nevada,[SUP]5[/SUP] New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. All these seats, with the exception of Nevada’s, are currently held by Republicans, so Democrats need to win five of them to pick up a net gain of four and win six to pick up a net gain of five....

In all but one of these 10 states, Trump is clearly running behind the Republican candidate for Senate. The only state where Trump isn’t doing at least 3 percentage points worse than his party’s Senate candidate is Wisconsin, where he is still running behind Sen. Ron Johnson at this time. On average, Trump is running nearly 7 percentage points behind the Republican candidates for Senate.

Romney, who Trump has denigrated as a loser, ran ahead of GOP Senatorial Candidates.

:doh
 

clownboy

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You've been beating this drum ever since it was a sure thing your boy Cruz was going to lose.
 

tres borrachos

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Yay. We'll have a Democratic President working with a Democratically-controlled Senate and a barely Republican-controlled House with an emasculated leader, thanks to the "Oh he's establishment so he's a baaad man!" clowns.

Kelly Ayotte here in NH is deathly afraid of being hurt downballot because of Trump. As she should be. I already know to look at the top of my ballot, ignore the name at the top of the "R" column, find Gary Johnson, use my magic marker to circle in the space next to his name, then shift back to the R column to vote for her and Guinta and whoever else will be in there, depending on how the primaries turn out. But that's because i pay attention. Other historically "R" voters may not.
 

cpwill

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You've been beating this drum ever since it was a sure thing your boy Cruz was going to lose.
[emoji38] Cruz wasnt my guy. But Math? Yes, generally the Math has been consistent.

Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk
 

Redress

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Redress

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You've been beating this drum ever since it was a sure thing your boy Cruz was going to lose.

Cp was not a "Cruz guy", except maybe in that after his guys got eliminated, cp felt that pretty much any one with a pulse was better than Trump.
 

Absentglare

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Cp was not a "Cruz guy", except maybe in that after his guys got eliminated, cp felt that pretty much any one with a pulse was better than Trump.

Either way, it's irrelevant.

Clownboy is just deflecting from the train-wreck that is Trump's campaign.
 

cpwill

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I would not worry overmuch about your source article. Trump is, far moreso than most candidates, not tied to the party. While he may keep some people home who would normally vote republican, it's not like democrats don't have a problem in that area too.

I think it's that A) he keeps some Republicans home, but B) he helps bring a lot of Democrats out, while C) he puts Republicans in the position of either picking a fight with their own party (the course charted by the Hon. Mr.'s Flake and Sasse), or letting Democrats gleefully hang Trump around their necks in front of the General Electorate.

I think Trump costing us the Senate is very plausible. I don't know if I'd say "likely" yet, but close.
 

cpwill

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You've been beating this drum ever since it was a sure thing your boy Cruz was going to lose.

Trump is a bigger loser than Romney. He's a loser, and he's gonna give the Democrats control, wreck the GOP brand for years, and give them a weapon they will use for decades. Well done.
 
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