2019 set to be warmer than 2018

[Lord of Planar]

Here's the report, please cite your differences with references from the report.

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/

Why do you even think there is merit to something similar to the telephone game?

The report uses several sources, picking what they want to use. The article you cite then does a similar process. I have no desire to take someone else's interpretation. I suggest you see if the parts you agree with match with the source papers. They rarely do.

I have better things than waste my time verifying something you failed to.

Before you fall hook, line, and sinker for government propaganda, maybe you should read the source material they cite, and see how accurately they reflect the authors carefully chosen wording.

 

[Media_Truth]

Why do you even think there is merit to something similar to the telephone game?

The report uses several sources, picking what they want to use. The article you cite then does a similar process. I have no desire to take someone else's interpretation. I suggest you see if the parts you agree with match with the source papers. They rarely do.

I have better things than waste my time verifying something you failed to.

Before you fall hook, line, and sinker for government propaganda, maybe you should read the source material they cite, and see how accurately they reflect the authors carefully chosen wording.

I repeat - here's the report, please cite your differences with references from the report.

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/

 

[Lord of Planar]

I repeat - here's the report, please cite your differences with references from the report.

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/

I don't know what references they are using for a particular statement, because none of the peer reviewed papers make such claims.

Please show me which one does.

I cannot show you something that doesn't exist.

 

[Steve Case]

20 warmest years on record are in the last 22, and the last four were the warmest of those. I would say the odds are with the OP.

Yes, and how much has it warmed up over the last century and a half? Temperature increased
from 1850 to 1880, decreased from 1880 to 1910, increased from 1910 to 1945, decreased from
1945 to 1975 and increased since 1975. Overall, an increase of about a degree in over a century
and a half. It really shouldn't come as any surprise that recent decades are the warmest.

The issue is whether or not that's a problem and that I should be required to ride the bus, eat
tofu and allow the government to monitor my thermostat.

 

[Quaestio]

I repeat - here's the report, please cite your differences with references from the report.

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/

He's not going to read it. Just like he didn't read any of the IPCC reports other than a few paragraphs here and there. Nor any of the underlying literature. He already believes he knows more than all those scientists. Happy for him to show us I'm wrong. Haven't seen any evidence of it so far though.

 

[longview]

He's not going to read it. Just like he didn't read any of the IPCC reports other than a few paragraphs here and there. Nor any of the underlying literature. He already believes he knows more than all those scientists. Happy for him to show us I'm wrong. Haven't seen any evidence of it so far though.

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/downloads/NCA4_2018_FullReport.pdf
You do understand that "warmest" and "warming" are different words right?
It is possible, that 2017 and 2018 could be cooler than 2016 and still be warmest years.

 

[Lord of Planar]

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/downloads/NCA4_2018_FullReport.pdf
You do understand that "warmest" and "warming" are different words right?
It is possible, that 2017 and 2018 could be cooler than 2016 and still be warmest years.

How many times to I have to remind these alarmists that "words have meaning?"

 

[Threegoofs]

How many times to I have to remind these alarmists that "words have meaning?"

So why when virtually all scientific organizations say ‘AGW is real, manmade, and a serious problem for the future and we must curtail GHG emissions now’ you somehow think that they are ‘pundits’?

 

[longview]

So why when virtually all scientific organizations say ‘AGW is real, manmade, and a serious problem for the future and we must curtail GHG emissions now’ you somehow think that they are ‘pundits’?

You need to have a citation showing that virtually all scientific organizations say that the word "warmest" and "warming" have exactly the same meaning,
because that is what you are saying!

 

[Tim the plumber]

20 warmest years on record are in the last 22, and the last four were the warmest of those. I would say the odds are with the OP.

Yeah, but what happens if it does not do that? Will your faith shake?

Also if it is not substantially warmer then the idea of a +3c by 2100 continues to slide away.

 

[Media_Truth]

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/downloads/NCA4_2018_FullReport.pdf
You do understand that "warmest" and "warming" are different words right?
It is possible, that 2017 and 2018 could be cooler than 2016 and still be warmest years.

Please explain your comment, in relation to the NCA report. It seems like you're just talking to be talking.

 

[Quaestio]

Please explain your comment, in relation to the NCA report. It seems like you're just talking to be talking.

My daughter refers to it as 'phaffing about'

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=phaffing

 

[longview]

Please explain your comment, in relation to the NCA report. It seems like you're just talking to be talking.

In post #22 you quoted a piece that stated,
"The UN agency said in its provisional report that ‘the past four years – 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 – are also the four warmest years in the series’. "
As if that meant something related to "warming", it clearly does not, as both 2017 and 2018 will be cooler than 2016.
As I was saying "warmest" and "warming" are different words.
"Warmest" is a steady state term, "warming" is a moving state.
We have been in a fairly steady warming trend since roughly 1825, it is expected that many recent years would be warmest,
but that have little to do with if it is still warming, or the rate of that warming.

 

[Lord of Planar]

In post #22 you quoted a piece that stated,
"The UN agency said in its provisional report that ‘the past four years – 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 – are also the four warmest years in the series’. "
As if that meant something related to "warming", it clearly does not, as both 2017 and 2018 will be cooler than 2016.
As I was saying "warmest" and "warming" are different words.
"Warmest" is a steady state term, "warming" is a moving state.
We have been in a fairly steady warming trend since roughly 1825, it is expected that many recent years would be warmest,
but that have little to do with if it is still warming, or the rate of that warming.

You expect too much of these warmers. They fail to comprehend that "words have meaning," and you expect them to properly understand phrases?

Just like schools have had to do over the years, you need to lower your expectations.

 

[longview]

You expect too much of these warmers. They fail to comprehend that "words have meaning," and you expect them to properly understand phrases?

Just like schools have had to do over the years, you need to lower your expectations.

I am an optimist!

 

[Jack Hays]

[FONT=&quot]ENSO[/FONT]
[h=1]NOAA: El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19[/h][FONT=&quot]EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 13 December 2018 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch Synopsis: El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 201819 (~90% chance) and through spring (~60% chance). ENSO-neutral continued during November,…
[/FONT]

 

[Media_Truth]

[FONT="][URL="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/13/el-nio-is-expected-to-form-and-continue-through-the-northern-hemisphere-winter-2018-19/"]

[/URL]ENSO[/FONT]
[h=1]NOAA: El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19[/h][FONT="]EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 13 December 2018 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch Synopsis: El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 201819 (~90% chance) and through spring (~60% chance). ENSO-neutral continued during November,…
[/FONT]

This temperature graph has El Nino factored into one of the pens. Not much different than the actual, is it?

 

[longview]

This temperature graph has El Nino factored into one of the pens. Not much different than the actual, is it?
View attachment 67246002

The graph does not and could not have the 2016 El Nino factored in because we have not fully recovered.
Consider what the .1 to .2 C boost for the 2016 El Nino would look like on that graph, were it removed.

 

[Media_Truth]

The graph does not and could not have the 2016 El Nino factored in because we have not fully recovered.
Consider what the .1 to .2 C boost for the 2016 El Nino would look like on that graph, were it removed.

It's showing it - plain as day.

 

[longview]

It's showing it - plain as day.

Actually it does not, compair the last large El Nino (1998) and 2016, notice any difference?
1998's spike is almost complete removed, from playing with the data it takes about a 42 month average to the effects,
and your graph was not from 21 months after the El Nino Peak.

 

[Visbek]

Actually it does not, compair the last large El Nino (1998) and 2016, notice any difference?
1998's spike is almost complete removed, from playing with the data it takes about a 42 month average to the effects,
and your graph was not from 21 months after the El Nino Peak.

Erm.... Looks like Media Truth is trying to point out that, when we remove the ENSO effects:

a) There is still a significant warming trend
b) As you should already know, recent years are the warmest years
c) As you should already know, 2017 is the hottest year on record when we remove ENSO effects

 

[Jack Hays]

when we remove ENSO effects

when we remove ENSO effects = when we apply the fudge factor

 

[longview]

Erm.... Looks like Media Truth is trying to point out that, when we remove the ENSO effects:

a) There is still a significant warming trend
b) As you should already know, recent years are the warmest years
c) As you should already know, 2017 is the hottest year on record when we remove ENSO effects

I know what he is trying to show, but the by 2017 not enough time had passed to remove the effects of the 2016 El Nino.
a)when we see the actual 2018 average temp, we will know what the warming trend to 2016 looks like.
b) Warmest is a steady state, not a description of something moving
c) hottest is also a steady state, and in 2017 there was insufficient data to remove the ENSO.

 

[Threegoofs]

I know what he is trying to show, but the by 2017 not enough time had passed to remove the effects of the 2016 El Nino.
a)when we see the actual 2018 average temp, we will know what the warming trend to 2016 looks like.
b) Warmest is a steady state, not a description of something moving
c) hottest is also a steady state, and in 2017 there was insufficient data to remove the ENSO.

We pretty much know what the 2018 average temp is, denier.

 

[Visbek]

I know what he is trying to show, but the by 2017 not enough time had passed to remove the effects of the 2016 El Nino.

In these measurements, they remove all ENSO effects. That's the whole point. Please stop this nonsense.

a) when we see the actual 2018 average temp, we will know what the warming trend to 2016 looks like.

So you're so focused on a 2 year trend, that you don't care about 40+ years of trends? Please stop this nonsense, too.

b) Warmest is a steady state, not a description of something moving

"Warmest" is a relative measure, and I'm pointing out that the last decade are the warmest on record. Anyone with half a brain understands what this means. Please stop etc.

c) hottest is also a steady state, and in 2017 there was insufficient data to remove the ENSO.

Good grief. No, "hottest" is not a "steady state," it's a relative measure. As your ilk likes to say, "words have meaning." You really ought to learn the meaning of the words you're reading, before you criticize.

And yes, we can reasonably estimate the impacts of ENSO effects. There was plenty of data, and we accumulate more data, and refine it, every time there is another ENSO event.