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2010 Electorate Still Looking More Republican Than in the Past

Erod

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2010 Electorate Still Looking More Republican Than in the Past

Bottom Line

Gallup's recent tracking of the generic ballot for Congress has shown the Republicans with substantial leads over the Democrats among likely voters, in part because the underlying registered voter population leans Republican in its vote choice. Compared with previous elections, that tilt is an extraordinary positioning for the Republicans, who typically do no better than tie the Democrats among registered voters. The GOP's position is further enhanced by the generally strong proclivity of Republicans to turn out to vote, which appears to be even greater than usual this year.

In some important demographic respects -- namely, gender, age, and education -- 2010 midterm voters will be quite typical of past electorates. However, should the figures reported here hold through the final poll conducted this coming weekend, this will be only the second time in the last five midterm elections in which the majority of voters on Election Day were Republican in their party identification or leanings, likely exceeding the 51% found in 2002. Much of this is explained by a surge in Republican-leaning independents.

Predictions consistently have the Republicans picking up as many as 65+ seats in the House, and 8-9 seats in the Senate this year. I've tended to doubt those numbers over the summer, but it appears the push toward the GOP is gaining ground near the election, not losing it.

If you look at the chart, notable is that independents are leaning heavily toward the Republican side, and conservative Democrats look willing to just stay home this election. If so, this could be even uglier than they feared.

As Obama said, his "agenda is on the ballot." And with 3/4 of America vehemently opposed to what he's passed and pushed for to date, that doesn't bode well for Democrats at all.
 

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Blah, who cares who runs the show. Neither side is worth the used gum on the bottom of my shoe. Republicans will gain control but will they help with the current deficit problem, I'm beyond pessimistic. They'll lower taxes, oh goody (for the current generations anyway). But, I am vere pessimistic concerning whether they'll even cut enough from the budget to make up for the tax breaks, let alone the expenditures catapulting our current deficit. Neither party has big enough gonads to do what is necessary to curb the deficit.
 

Erod

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Blah, who cares who runs the show. Neither side is worth the used gum on the bottom of my shoe. Republicans will gain control but will they help with the current deficit problem, I'm beyond pessimistic. They'll lower taxes, oh goody (for the current generations anyway). But, I am vere pessimistic concerning whether they'll even cut enough from the budget to make up for the tax breaks, let alone the expenditures catapulting our current deficit. Neither party has big enough gonads to do what is necessary to curb the deficit.

I normally would agree with most of that, and in fact, I still do to an great extent. But this time might be different. I'm not a tea partier per se - I'm neither here nor there with them - but what I do think they've brought to the table hopefully, is that Americans are more cognizant, and will pay far greater attention, to what their elected folks do. Incumbents will be in trouble again in 2012.

The GOP needs to flood Obama will bills reflecting what Americans want done. Make him veto these bills, or get on board like Clinton did when the same thing happened to him in 1994. If he vetoes the bills, America will know beforehand what bills they can expect immediately upon replacing Obama with a conservative president in 2012.

That way, instead of having and American Idol type election like last time, the 2012 presidential election will be about real policy.
 

Taboon

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I normally would agree with most of that, and in fact, I still do to an great extent. But this time might be different. I'm not a tea partier per se - I'm neither here nor there with them - but what I do think they've brought to the table hopefully, is that Americans are more cognizant, and will pay far greater attention, to what their elected folks do. Incumbents will be in trouble again in 2012.

The GOP needs to flood Obama will bills reflecting what Americans want done. Make him veto these bills, or get on board like Clinton did when the same thing happened to him in 1994. If he vetoes the bills, America will know beforehand what bills they can expect immediately upon replacing Obama with a conservative president in 2012.

That way, instead of having and American Idol type election like last time, the 2012 presidential election will be about real policy.

I wish I had your optimism but when I fail to see any Tea Party type candidates giving real examples of how they will curb the deficit, my pessimism sets in. I just hear reduce taxes, cut costs! Well, what exactly are you going to cut? Cuts to many areas will only do so much unless you completely get rid of a whole bunch of deparments. Even then, there will still need to be cuts beyond that considering most of our budget relates to Defense, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and Interest on our debt. Nobody seems to want to touch these things other than to "privatize" one or more of those. I want to see details before my optimism becomes reality. Until then, not so much.
 

apdst

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Blah, who cares who runs the show. Neither side is worth the used gum on the bottom of my shoe. Republicans will gain control but will they help with the current deficit problem, I'm beyond pessimistic. They'll lower taxes, oh goody (for the current generations anyway). But, I am vere pessimistic concerning whether they'll even cut enough from the budget to make up for the tax breaks, let alone the expenditures catapulting our current deficit. Neither party has big enough gonads to do what is necessary to curb the deficit.

I don't expect the Republicans to, "do", anything. In fact, I don't want them to, "do", anything. It's all the, "doing", things that has sucked the confidence out of the private sector. That absence of confidence has caused the recession to linger on. As long as we have a government that understands that government can't create jobs and can't create wealth, the economy will prosper. While we have a government that thinks that the answer to our economic problems is fewer jobs and more taxes, then right here is where we'll staty.
 

Taboon

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I don't expect the Republicans to, "do", anything. In fact, I don't want them to, "do", anything. It's all the, "doing", things that has sucked the confidence out of the private sector. That absence of confidence has caused the recession to linger on. As long as we have a government that understands that government can't create jobs and can't create wealth, the economy will prosper. While we have a government that thinks that the answer to our economic problems is fewer jobs and more taxes, then right here is where we'll staty.

So, you have no desire to curb the deficit then?
 

apdst

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So, you have no desire to curb the deficit then?

Sure I do. However, that's not going to happen, without the economy improving. Killing jobs, raising taxes, suckering more people onto the government dole and spending more money isn't going to fix the economy. Only a supreme idiot would think that is an effective strategy.

I'll agree 100% that the Democrats have done alot and accomplished alot. And, everything they've accomplished is counter-productive to our economy. The only beneficiary of all those accomplishments, is the government. Our government exists to serve the people, not the other way around.
 

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I wish I had your optimism but when I fail to see any Tea Party type candidates giving real examples of how they will curb the deficit, my pessimism sets in. I just hear reduce taxes, cut costs! Well, what exactly are you going to cut? Cuts to many areas will only do so much unless you completely get rid of a whole bunch of deparments. Even then, there will still need to be cuts beyond that considering most of our budget relates to Defense, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and Interest on our debt. Nobody seems to want to touch these things other than to "privatize" one or more of those. I want to see details before my optimism becomes reality. Until then, not so much.

The answer is, and has always been, free market. You can't fix problems by just taking more money away from people. That just plugs one hole and creates ten more.

Don't focus on the Tea Party "candidates" so much. This movement is just a faction of conservatives that is standing up to its own very flawed party and demanding that it adhere to its principles. Republicans in recent years have been so sensitive to media and pop culture characterizations that they've abandoned the ideals they were elected on. It's still the Republican party, but a shift back to core principles is needed to earn this faction's support.

The first line of business will be to repeal all the incredible damage Obama has done, and start from there.
 

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repeal obamacare---that's a great start to deficit reduction

yes, the electorate is more republican than it's ever been in modern times

gallup shows 55% of americans identifying with gop, by far the highest in the records of our most prestigious pollster

48% of likely voters call themselves CONSERVATIVE (gallup yesterday)

obama's support amongst catholics, hispanics, youth, women, working class whites (the reagan dems), independents and suburbanites is thru the floor

politico has a piece today on the burbs---they're 60% of the population and probably 65 to 70% of the electorate

they're abandoning the obnoxious one in bundles

(we saw this in the neighborhoods around chicago late last week, the early voters were way down)

it was cbs/nyt yesterday which pointed out the newest group to go---catholics

the catholic vote in this country is simply enormous, potentially 50 million

catholics in america are like a nation unto themselves, and, in a nutshell, their politics are: 1) huge, and 2) very close to 50-50 on almost every major issue (including abortion)

the enthusiasm gap in favor of the gop today is unprecedented

the pollsters, all of them, are using sampling models based on something between the 06 and 08 turnouts, which is NOT what's happening today, in the earlies, in the polls, at the precincts

if you use the 04 model (several analysts have pointed out, sean trende, jay cost, larry sabato, amongst others), you get a republican preference some 3 points or so higher than you're seeing in the polls

and the 04 model still significantly shortchanges what appears almost certainly to be red votership today, due to the massive numbers of independents coming our way, due to the overwhelming disposition of undecideds to break AGAINST incumbency, due to bottom line ENTHUSIASM

elections in america are won and lost on ENTHUSIASM

african american excitement for THIS election was measured by cbs/nyt at a pitiful 47%, a good 23 points below whites

white women disapprove of obama generically by TWENTY POINTS

all of the above is becoming common knowledge, you can read the awful awareness in the faces of the punditry, from fox to msnbc to cnn to david gregory to cspan, with everybody in between

everyone knows everything, as of now---EXCEPT for a few fascinating story lines, still undetermined, such as the CA senate, the CA gub, the oregon gub, the CO senate, the washington senate, the west virginia senate...

they've given up on reid, they've conceded PA and IL

our side, in contrast, has thrown in the towel in CT and DE

it's because the HEART of the american people is so unambiguously discernible, as of THIS WEEK

links to polls confirming all of the above are at least TWENTY

the gallup in the OP paints the women, blacks, catholics

the sapping of youth sentiment was detailed by ap/mtv, politico, battleground/gwu and at least several others

every snapshot is looking the same, they are all reifying each other

he trails by TEN, for example, in the NORTHEAST!

just a few of the literally dozens of stories on this topic available in the last two weeks (which demonstrates how consensual are these conclusions)

also, poll after poll has found massive momentum GAINING for the greedheads of the gop, independents moving right by double digits in the last month or so

2010 Campaign News: GOP in Lead in Final Lap - WSJ.com

Poll: 2008 Obama Backers Not Excited to Vote This Year - Political Hotsheet - CBS News

Opinion: Suburban nation, but urban policies - Joel Kotkin - POLITICO.com

Poll: Independents siding with GOP - James Hohmann and Jim VandeHei - POLITICO.com

Independents turn to GOP in Senate races - Jonathan Martin - POLITICO.com

RealClearPolitics - Democrats Didn't Prepare for a Year Like This

RealClearPolitics - Who's Going to Vote This Year?
 
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Taboon

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The answer is, and has always been, free market. You can't fix problems by just taking more money away from people. That just plugs one hole and creates ten more.

Don't focus on the Tea Party "candidates" so much. This movement is just a faction of conservatives that is standing up to its own very flawed party and demanding that it adhere to its principles. Republicans in recent years have been so sensitive to media and pop culture characterizations that they've abandoned the ideals they were elected on. It's still the Republican party, but a shift back to core principles is needed to earn this faction's support.

The first line of business will be to repeal all the incredible damage Obama has done, and start from there.

I'll agree with you when it comes to not increasing taxes anywhere during tough economic times. We aren't out of the woods yet. But, I am not betting on Republicans fixing the budget deficit problem once we gain a stronger foothold from an economic standpoint either.

From what I have seen regarding "core prinipals", Republicans won't touch things like Defense and Medicare. We can't afford to have a military as large as the one we do today if we aren't willing to pony up the related tax receipts. And we cannot continue funding Medicare/Medicaid with payroll receipts that only cover about 1/3 of the cost. So, it's going to take a bit more than "core principals" to get this train back on track for the future.

I don't really see how a repeal would be effective considering Obama will surely veto anything that comes his way related to that. There will be a majority of Republicans in congress more than likely but it will probably be a very slim majority. I just don't see a 2/3rds vote being a realistic scenario. Please clue me in if you think I am mistaken.
 

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I'll agree with you when it comes to not increasing taxes anywhere during tough economic times. We aren't out of the woods yet. But, I am not betting on Republicans fixing the budget deficit problem once we gain a stronger foothold from an economic standpoint either.

From what I have seen regarding "core prinipals", Republicans won't touch things like Defense and Medicare. We can't afford to have a military as large as the one we do today if we aren't willing to pony up the related tax receipts. And we cannot continue funding Medicare/Medicaid with payroll receipts that only cover about 1/3 of the cost. So, it's going to take a bit more than "core principals" to get this train back on track for the future.

I don't really see how a repeal would be effective considering Obama will surely veto anything that comes his way related to that. There will be a majority of Republicans in congress more than likely but it will probably be a very slim majority. I just don't see a 2/3rds vote being a realistic scenario. Please clue me in if you think I am mistaken.

What we need is an entirely different kind of healthcare reform that will allow doctors to better control their costs and liability insurance expenses. Healthcare is unnecessarily expensive because of a constant deluge of frivilous lawsuits trying to suck money from doctors.

I disagree entirely on the military being too big. It can't be big enough. That is the only thing that can keep China and Russia at bay for the foreseeable future.

In terms of the new look of Congress, I think it'll take two cycles before we know. Tuesday will give both houses to the GOP, and next election will give them the presidency and potentially more seats. All depends if they learn this time and stick to core principles, and stop worrying about and placating the media in a useless attempt to try and get positive coverage (which they should know now will never happen). Prof can better detail the breakdown.
 

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I disagree entirely on the military being too big. It can't be big enough. That is the only thing that can keep China and Russia at bay for the foreseeable future.
QUOTE]

Ok, this is where I start disagreeing with most Republicans. If we can't raise taxes, touch social security, medicare or defense we have to get rid of, I mean $0 allocated to, every other program that the government runs, completely. We have what is expected to be a $0.8 Billion to $1 Trillion deficit every year through 2020. Every other program that is not associated with Defense, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and Interest on our debt is right around $1 Trillion so there will be nothing left, not enough to run anything on anyway, for any other government progrom if we are to balance the budget. That means no:

Department of Agriculture
Commerce
Education (Including any vouchers)
Energy
HHS
Homeland Security
Housing and Urban Development
Interior
Justice
Labor
Transportation
Treasury
Veterans Affairs
NASA
EPA
SSA
Etc, Etc, Etc

I'm sure you are ok with getting rid of some of these, but are you ok with getting rid of them all? That is the question.
 

Heavy Duty

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Blah, who cares who runs the show. Neither side is worth the used gum on the bottom of my shoe. Republicans will gain control but will they help with the current deficit problem, I'm beyond pessimistic. They'll lower taxes, oh goody (for the current generations anyway). But, I am vere pessimistic concerning whether they'll even cut enough from the budget to make up for the tax breaks, let alone the expenditures catapulting our current deficit. Neither party has big enough gonads to do what is necessary to curb the deficit.

Did you once think about all the spending the democrats were doing in the past 4 years causing record debt numbers to be scattered? Yet the left was belly aching how republicans were spending the grand kids money when they were in control are now all of a sudden worrying about deficits again after putting us deeper in the hole than anytime in our history.
 
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ARealConservative

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I disagree entirely on the military being too big. It can't be big enough. That is the only thing that can keep China and Russia at bay for the foreseeable future.

This is why I don't have any faith in conservative politics. Until we kill the golden calf, nothing will change.

Why self professed conservatives throw all humbleness aside when dealing with military might I will never get.

how many times do we have to see war sentiment change on the turn of the dime before we realize this country operates on a set of rules that prevents us from having a stable consist foreign policy.

Our rules are setup to protect individual rights, not to maintain order around the world. Every election we can completely change our foreign policy, which makes us appear to suffer from schizophrenia. That is no way to operate!
 
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Obama’s professed "post-partisan" credentials were a centerpiece of a vigorous and impassioned campaign that won him the presidency. After taking office though, Obama began a new campaign of isolating and demeaning those who would question his ideological agenda.

The once dynamic candidate who had inspired supporters has been supplanted by a phlegmatic, partisan President. Obama's golden pledge to unite America sparkles only with failure as the pretender-in-chief coolly and dismissively relegates all nonbelievers to the back seat.

Yet -- hope and change live on through the upcoming mid term election. Where Obama has altogether failed his pledge to unite the country, his ability to unite Republicans will prove to be nothing but historic.
 

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Did you once think about all the spending the democrats were doing in the past 4 years causing record debt numbers to be scattered? Yet the left was belly aching how republicans were spending the grand kids money when they were in control are now all of a sudden worrying about deficits again after putting us deeper in the hole than anytime in our history.

Umm....who ever said I agreed with the Democrats fiscal policies. I don't as a matter of fact. Never said I was a Democrat either because I am not. So, take your excuses elsewhere bub. I don't agree with the fiscal policies of either party. As far as I am concerned both parties are spending the grandkids money. If you do not balance the budget you are making future generations pay at the minimum, the related interest expenses on that deficit.
 

Taboon

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This is why I don't have any faith in conservative politics. Until we kill the golden calf, nothing will change.

Why self professed conservatives throw all humbleness aside when dealing with military might I will never get.

how many times do we have to see war sentiment change on the turn of the dime before we realize this country operates on a set of rules that prevents us from having a stable consist foreign policy.

Our rules are setup to protect individual rights, not to maintain order around the world. Every election we can completely change our foreign policy, which makes us appear to suffer from schizophrenia. That is no way to operate!

Oh thank God somebody gets it. I salute you sir.
 

ARealConservative

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Oh thank God somebody gets it. I salute you sir.

now if only the other side will admit their desire to destroy our republic and replace it with a one-size fits all demoracy is the root cause of all the political anger and fighting.
 
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