• Please read the Announcement concerning missing posts from 10/8/25-10/15/25.
  • This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!
  • Welcome to our archives. No new posts are allowed here.

2008 Election Polling Numbers Thread

Re: Zogby: Mccain Moves Into Lead 48-47 In One Day Polling

Oh, BTW, could someone help me out with this?

I'm sleepy & I'm sure I'm missing something really obvious..

from: Zogby International

"Republican John McCain made a small gain against Democrat Barack Obama and has pulled back within the margin of error, now trailing Obama by five points, 49.1% to 44.1%, ..."

later on, down the page ...

"It carries a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points."

[emphasis added for ... emphasis]
So you really need help with this? :confused:
 
Re: Zogby: Mccain Moves Into Lead 48-47 In One Day Polling

So you really need help with this? :confused:

I know. I feel silly; I know there is something really simple that I'm just not getting at the moment (and math is usually my strong subject).

Like I said, I'm a bit loopy from being over-tired.

Here are my speculations as to my own confusion:

49.1% & 44.1% are both within 2.9% of their average, IOW, the 49.1% could be in error of +2.9% putting the more accurate value at ~46% and the 44.1% could be in error of -2.9% putting the more accurate value at ~47%

Jeez, that's the reason isn't it? Should I just go find my statistics teacher now and ask him to slap me?
 
Re: Zogby: Mccain Moves Into Lead 48-47 In One Day Polling

I know. I feel silly; I know there is something really simple that I'm just not getting at the moment (and math is usually my strong subject).

Like I said, I'm a bit loopy from being over-tired.

Here are my speculations as to my own confusion:

49.1% & 44.1% are both within 2.9% of their average, IOW, the 49.1% could be in error of +2.9% putting the more accurate value at ~46% and the 44.1% could be in error of -2.9% putting the more accurate value at ~47%

Jeez, that's the reason isn't it? Should I just go find my statistics teacher now and ask him to slap me?
Aside from poll numbers? Well too much love WILL KILL YOU!
YouTube - Freddie Mercury Tribute (2)-Brian May
 
Last edited:
Haha, okay. Thanks for your help? :roll:

(I get it, but I don't see how the video you posted applies here.)

Anyhoo. I feel better having caught my mistake (I did catch it right? Damn, I think I should just go to bed now...)

49.1% & 44.1% are both within 2.9% of their average, IOW, the 49.1% could be in error of +2.9% putting the more accurate value at ~46% and the 44.1% could be in error of -2.9% putting the more accurate value at ~47%

Okay, so the math (arithmetic really) works out for a statistical tie, but what are the actual chances of the error being fully one-sided like that?

Don't think I'm as confident as our friend, ADK on this. I know how to analyze numbers (trust me, I'm a lot better at it when I'm rested :3oops:), I can do some more worst-case scenario arithmetic and give McCain a +10% bonus in all polls from a 3% margin of error and 7% from the undecideds, but the odds of all that stacking up in his favor are just . . . not great, and he would need that sort of super-lucky scenario to win.

So I'm going to stand by my belief that the data showing Obama in the lead will remain an accurate indicator of a Democratic victory on the 4th.

..

Until something significant changes of course!


Or maybe it is just the love. ;)
 
So you really did need help?:roll:
 
Sir Loin said:
So you really did need help?

Honestly, yes. At the time that I posted as such, I was genuinely confused. I ate a peanut butter sandwich and am feeling more alert now.

Since you haven't yet said anything actually positively helpful, would you like to pretend that I still need help and say something that might be of use to others perusing this thread?


:2razz:

Just for the fun of it, I'm going to throw McCain supporters a bone here:

I just did a quick B.S. calculation and found that if all the margins of error in all the polls are in McCain's favor, and all the undecided voters in every state vote for McCain, then he will win with a landslide 348 electoral votes.

But just barely - like protracted recounts in Palm Beach County barely.

Now I'm going to go to bed and have nightmares about another year 2000 scenario. *shudders*
 
Re: Zogby: Mccain Moves Into Lead 48-47 In One Day Polling

So you don't care to bet your avatar, not your sig, that there will be a landslide for Obama?

You thoroughly and publicly lack the courage of your convictions, signature and posturing. Who knew?:rofl

Ahh yes. You're one of those guys who, when faced with overwhelming evidence that you're wrong, resorts to the school yard bully tactics of "Oh yeah, wanna BET on it?" :rofl
 
Re: Zogby: Mccain Moves Into Lead 48-47 In One Day Polling

ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...
DRUDGE REPORT 2009®
 
Re: Zogby: Mccain Moves Into Lead 48-47 In One Day Polling

Ahh yes. You're one of those guys who, when faced with overwhelming evidence that you're wrong, resorts to the school yard bully tactics of "Oh yeah, wanna BET on it?" :rofl
Would not your answer "no" have been easier and frankly more intelligent of you to bash, I mean type out?
:confused:

Honestly, yes. At the time that I posted as such, I was genuinely confused. I ate a peanut butter sandwich and am feeling more alert now.

Since you haven't yet said anything actually positively helpful, would you like to pretend that I still need help and say something that might be of use to others perusing this thread?
Just for the fun of it, I'm going to throw McCain supporters a bone here:

I just did a quick B.S. calculation and found that if all the margins of error in all the polls are in McCain's favor, and all the undecided voters in every state vote for McCain, then he will win with a landslide 348 electoral votes.

But just barely - like protracted recounts in Palm Beach County barely.

Now I'm going to go to bed and have nightmares about another year 2000 scenario. *shudders*

Yeah, who knows? The GOP and “repubs” might be able to get a democratic county wide majority to help them “cheat” the system in a historically democratically controlled county, again. Chuckle. At least until a consortium of over 60 national newspapers determines that the GOP/repubs did not in fact “get” the dems in charge on the dem controlled Palm Beach county, to “cheat” for them. In which case you could always ignore that little factoid for nearly a decade and come back here in 2016 and hang us a chad.

When you do, be sure to bring your “special” abacus with you.:roll:
 
Last edited:
Polling Data

Poll Obama (D) McCain (R) RCP Average 10/25 - 10/31 Obama +6.5

Rasmussen Reports10/29 - 10/31 Obama +5

Gallup (Traditional)*10/29 - 10/31 Obama +10

Gallup (Expanded)*10/29 - 10/31 Obama +10

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby10/29 - 10/31 Obama +5

Diageo/Hotline10/29 - 10/31 Obama +7

Marist10/29 - 10/29 Obama +7

GWU/Battleground10/27 - 10/30 Obama +4

ABC News/Wash Post10/27 - 10/30 Obama +9

FOX News10/28 - 10/29 Obama +3

IBD/TIPP10/26 - 10/30 Obama +4

CBS News/NY Times10/25 - 10/29 Obama +11

See All General Election: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data

*Gallup's "Traditional" and "Expanded" Likely Voter models are weighted at 50%, so that the survey only counts once in the RCP National Average.
 
Last edited:
McCain takes lead!

Link

Released: 11-01-2008

UTICA, New York -- Republican John McCain made a small gain against Democrat Barack Obama and has pulled back within the margin of error, now trailing Obama by five points, 49.1% to 44.1%, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows.
Almost two days worth of the polling -- or about half of the current sample in the three-day rolling poll of likely voters nationwide, was conducted after Obama's 30-minute commercial aired Wednesday evening. There is no evidence it helped him, as he has dropped 1.1 points in the last two days, while McCain has gained 0.8 points during the same period.
 
Re: McCain takes lead!

:yawn: Sure he did.

Poll: Obama Maintains Comfortable Lead
With less than one week until Election Day, Barack Obama maintains a clear lead over John McCain in the presidential race, a new CBS News/New York Times poll suggests. The Democratic nominee now leads his Republican rival by 11 percentage points, 52 percent to 41 percent, among likely voters nationwide.

But you go ahead and beleive the ONLY poll that shows McCain is ahead. I'm sure it is far more likely that all the other pollers are wrong and that Zogby is right. Never mind the fact that their party affiliation numbers are all over the place with no apparent explanation for why that is.


GO McCAIN PALIN '08!
 
Re: McCain takes lead!

You are so dishonest. OMG, here he comes with his NYT poll, the paper that will be out of business within 5 years. You're so dishonest you haven't even got the guts to say you're a liberal, which you are. Independent, hahahaha...dishonest.
 
Re: McCain takes lead!

You are so dishonest. OMG, here he comes with his NYT poll, the paper that will be out of business within 5 years. You're so dishonest you haven't even got the guts to say you're a liberal, which you are. Independent, hahahaha...dishonest.

:spin: Says the guy who touts the only poll showing his guy ahead. Yeah, I'm the dishonest one. :roll:
 
Re: McCain takes lead!

You are so dishonest. OMG, here he comes with his NYT poll, the paper that will be out of business within 5 years. You're so dishonest you haven't even got the guts to say you're a liberal, which you are. Independent, hahahaha...dishonest.

How about these? They going out of business too?

200843.png


You're both dishonest for latching onto very partisan polls that are clearly outliers. Difference is, Indy is right. McCain isn't winning
 
Re: McCain takes lead!

You're both dishonest for latching onto very partisan polls that are clearly outliers. Difference is, Indy is right. McCain isn't winning

Nonono, don't try to lump me into the same category. I didn't post the poll to show that Obama is far and away ahead. Our friend American was posting what he found on Drudge report, so I posted the OTHER poll shown on Drudge report. That's not dishonest, its showing how even Matt Drudge is unable to spew this nonsense without at least covering his ass first.
 
Re: McCain takes lead!

Nonono, don't try to lump me into the same category. I didn't post the poll to show that Obama is far and away ahead. Our friend American was posting what he found on Drudge report, so I posted the OTHER poll shown on Drudge report. That's not dishonest, its showing how even Matt Drudge is unable to spew this nonsense without at least covering his ass first.

I see a CNN link to an NYT poll. I calls 'em like I sees 'em
 
Re: McCain takes lead!

No need to bicker. The main thing is that McCain is closing in on the lead in the final stretch. Looking at polls from a few days ago is like drinking stale wine. Lots of people are making up their minds every day now.
 
Re: McCain takes lead!

Didn't the NY Times get relagated to "Junk" status cause it's failing so badly?
 
Re: McCain takes lead!

Damnit! MrVicchio and American look like twins now. It's confusing as hell. I think I'm talking to one poster and it turns out its somebody else.
 
Re: McCain takes lead!

Didn't the NY Times get relagated to "Junk" status cause it's failing so badly?

So are most traditional news sources. It looks like the internet is spanking them pretty badly. Can't say I'm surprised.
 
Re: McCain takes lead!

Didn't the NY Times get relagated to "Junk" status cause it's failing so badly?

I think that happened when they hired William Kristol.
 
Such a mass of people flocking to early voting likely changes the accuracy of polls and likely in Obama's favor given he has hundreds of millions of dollars from Wall Street (the CEOs given $150 billion in tax exemptions to) to literally drive people picked up on the street to the polls.

For an old man, McCain is still slugging it out. Wasn't he suppose to die of old age or something by now?

The polls on issue-topics also show that Americans are voting for a non-violent revolution against capitalism to return instead to the European caste system. In every speech Obama declares there is only one real evil in America - capitalists. The majority appear to agree. But in a Democracy people do pick and then live by the consequences. In a few days a new experiment is Democratic socialism likely begins. Maybe then Obama will also dictate the next lower social role women will be allowed.
 
Back
Top Bottom