Grokmaster
DP Veteran
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So...just so you're on equal footing...what predictions did you make 10 years ago that have come true?
I predicted Al Gore was full of sh*t. :lamo
So...just so you're on equal footing...what predictions did you make 10 years ago that have come true?
I perdicted that the climate was not going to warm as much as the IPCC predicted, 0.3c.
I will now also predict that the climate will not warm in the comming decade as much as the IPCC predits, that is less than +0.3c to +0.5c.
Do you suppose that the real 'crisis' might just be the rate at which humans (demand to?) reproduce compared to other speciies on this planet?
The world's population doubled from 1875 (2B folks) to 1975 (4B folks). Using that historical (scientific?) data (and its observed rate of change) one could predict that by 2075 we will have 8B folks living and using energy on the planet. Of course, the real crisis won't be until 2175 when we will (likely?) have 16B folks tryng to not really **** up the planet using voluntary agreements.
Do you suppose that the real 'crisis' might just be the rate at which humans (demand to?) reproduce compared to other speciies on this planet?
I agree it's a huge problem. To change that, I think we are going to have to pull up Third world nations to a much closer to Western world standard of living. When they have two children, and both children almost always survive to adulthood, when they can get a good education, when they can easily buy and afford contraception, things will start to change I think, but not before.
No. Reproduction rates decrease sharply as wealth increases, and have been decreasing for decades across the globe. At current, we are scheduled to peak - population wise - in the 2050s, and then begin aging and shrinking in numbers.
The world's population doubled from 1875 (2B folks) to 1975 (4B folks). Using that historical (scientific?) data (and its observed rate of change) one could predict that by 2075 we will have 8B folks living and using energy on the planet. Of course, the real crisis won't be until 2175 when we will (likely?) have 16B folks tryng to not really **** up the planet using voluntary agreements.
Do you suppose that the real 'crisis' might just be the rate at which humans (demand to?) reproduce compared to other speciies on this planet?
Hmm... didn't wealth increase profoundly from 1875 to 1975 and has continued to do so until now?
BTW, 2050 is not very far (a mere generation?) from my stated date of 2075. The world population is now said to be 7.6B which is very close to my stated prediction of 8B - indicating that I may have underestimated its actual 2075 figure.
Sort of - growth has been generally logarithmic, vice geometric, over the expanse of humanity's rise.
But yes, it did. And birthrates dropped dramatically in the time period you mention.
The world population will peak at 8.7 billion people in 2055 and then decline to 8 billion by 2100, according to new research by Deutsche Bank
Regardless of specifics, I think, the general point stands - we aren't in danger of having too many babies, but too few.
America in particular, but the human populace long term.Who, exactly, is this we that is in danger of having too few babies?
America in particular, but the human populace long term.
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I would say we likely need steady growth. Especially in the US, those who don't want the entitlements (which are based on the assumption of having lots of kids and grandkids to pay for the grandparents) to collapse should be cheering for more younguns.What, exactly, is your goal for the US popualtion which has doubled since 1950 and has gone from 65% to 80% urban? Should we get more like Japan or what?
I would say we likely need steady growth. Especially in the US, those who don't want the entitlements (which are based on the assumption of having lots of kids and grandkids to pay for the grandparents) to collapse should be cheering for more younguns.
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Dec. 13, 2008, to a German audience of the Warmist Deluded, The Goracle predicted that the Arctic Ice Cap would melt completely. He then REPEATED his Grand Prediction, at the fateful COPENHAGEN CONFERENCE, ( also where the IPCC accidentally revealed that "fighting AGW " was not about the "climate" at all...but that it was about "leveling the playing field"...aka: INCOME REDISTRIBUTION, as well ) :
You CANNOT BUY COMEDY THIS GOOD!!!
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