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‘Ferguson Effect’ real — and dangerous to African Americans

buck

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[h=1]‘Ferguson Effect’ real — and dangerous to African Americans[/h]http://chicago.suntimes.com/opinion/ferguson-effect-real-and-dangerous-to-african-americans/

University of Missouri at St. Louis criminologist Richard Rosenfeld has had “second thoughts.”Like many academic criminologists, he had pooh-poohed charges that skyrocketing murder rates in many cities in 2015 and 2016 result from a ”Ferguson effect” — a skittering back from proactive policing for fear of accusations of racism like those that followed the death of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, in August 2014.

Now, after looking over 2015 data from 56 large cities, Rosenfeld tells The Guardian that he has changed his mind. Homicides in those cities were up 17 percent from 2014. And 10 cities, all with large black populations, saw homicides up 33 percent on average.

At least one researcher has had their mind changed, and now believes the Ferguson effect is real. Seems common sense to me, but those media sites to the left, still refuse to believe it.

The administration and (possibly more importantly) the DOJ and of course the liberal left calling cops racist will almost certainly cause a pull back of police enforcing the laws so they don't get painted with the same attacks..

Rosenfeld thus parts company with the liberal Brennan Center, whose analysts argued that the 2015 homicide increase in large cities was not a “national pandemic.” He parts company also with FiveThirtyEight analyst Carl Bialik, who dismissed a 16 percent homicide increase in 59 of the 60 largest cities in 2014 and 2015 as “a less dire picture than the one painted by reports in several large media outlets.”

But a 16 or 17 percent increase in homicides in major cities that account for a large share of the national murder toll is, in historical perspective, very dire indeed. The most accurate word is “unprecedented.” The only double-digit increases in national murder statistics going back to 1960 are 13 percent (in 1968), 11 percent (in 1966, 1967 and 1971) and 10 percent (in 1979).
 

Gaugingcatenate

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[h=1]‘Ferguson Effect’ real — and dangerous to African Americans[/h]http://chicago.suntimes.com/opinion/ferguson-effect-real-and-dangerous-to-african-americans/



At least one researcher has had their mind changed, and now believes the Ferguson effect is real. Seems common sense to me, but those media sites to the left, still refuse to believe it.

The administration and (possibly more importantly) the DOJ and of course the liberal left calling cops racist will almost certainly cause a pull back of police enforcing the laws so they don't get painted with the same attacks..
Seems plausible to me, unintended consequences.
 

Grim17

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Seems plausible to me, unintended consequences.

The questions now are, will organisations like Black Lives Matter see this a good thing, or a bad thing?

Will those statistics have an effect on those types of organisation and alter how they proceed in the future?

If so, do you think it will result in them toning down the racial rhetoric, or ratcheting it up even more?


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Skeptic Bob

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I have no problem believing this. The more intrusive government and the police are permitted to be the less crime there will be. If there are no police there will be no police abuses of authority but a lot of crime. And if police stopped and frisked everyone multiple times per day, and made us all wear tracking devices and didn't need warrants to do searches, crime would plummet.

It is about finding the place between those two extremes that members of the policed community are most comfortable with.
 

Erod

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No cop in their right mind would venture into these neighborhoods to do real police work.

It's just not worth your career, your safety, or your family's safety.

Let them sort it out themselves in those neighborhoods. That's the thinking now, and rightly so.
 

Grim17

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No cop in their right mind would venture into these neighborhoods to do real police work.

It's just not worth your career, your safety, or your family's safety.

Let them sort it out themselves in those neighborhoods. That's the thinking now, and rightly so.

I'm not sure why, but the movie "Escape from New York" comes to mind.


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DrOrange

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[h=1]‘Ferguson Effect’ real — and dangerous to African Americans[/h]http://chicago.suntimes.com/opinion/ferguson-effect-real-and-dangerous-to-african-americans/



At least one researcher has had their mind changed, and now believes the Ferguson effect is real. Seems common sense to me, but those media sites to the left, still refuse to believe it.

The administration and (possibly more importantly) the DOJ and of course the liberal left calling cops racist will almost certainly cause a pull back of police enforcing the laws so they don't get painted with the same attacks..

Those who are continuing to say the Ferguson Effect isn't real misunderstand what the other side is saying. They are under the assumption that people believe that the actions that took place in Ferguson directly contribute to and cause crime increase in other cities, and that this is called the Ferguson Effect. Of course that's not true because it's not possible.

Instead, the Ferguson Effect is the cultural change happening through-out the United States, brought on by the media coverage of events which is painting police as evil and spreading fear. Civilians are believing the media when the media says the police are evil, which leads them to feel obligated to be more violent and less obedient towards the police. On the other side of the coin, the police are seeing the work they do be vilified, and are facing increasing resistance and hostility in their day to day jobs, which causes them to be more fearful and on edge as well.

A wise man once said: the only thing we have to fear is fear itself. This is a prime example. The media has taken a story and altered it and distributed it to the point where they are now spreading fear, and this fear is changing the culture of the United States which is in turn promoting crime. That (the whole process) is the Ferguson Effect.
 
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